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Racing Chat - Thursday July 30th


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Meldrum Lad goes in the 3.00 at Southwell and you might remember him from last year when he won on Stratford hunter chase night which was a very strong piece of form. After that he ran in a handicap at the same venue and he finished 3rd. The ride wasn't the best and they were called into the stewards although jockey and trainer said the slow pace was against him. The slight concern here is there doesn't look to be a great deal of pace on again, but hopefully there will be and that was a stronger race than this. After that he pulled up at Cheltenham in October over hurdles, but he never got involved and I think the ground was against him as he seems at his best on quick ground. The brush hurdles should suit him well given his pointing exploits and his trainer can certainly get one fit first time. Having said that I do wonder if this could be a pipe opener before they go back over fences with him, but at the price he is I think he is worth a small e/w investment.

Meldrum Lad e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365 (16s with Betfair and 14s with Betfred with 4 places)

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Will anyone spare a thought for our poor bookies should all the fancied horses win at Goodwood today?  Haha, not me ?

Anyway one trixie and some win and ew bets

2.15 Gd Yazaman 13/8
3.15 Gd Fancy Blue 9/4 (£2 win at 5/2)
4.20 Gd Teodolina 6/4

£1.50 win trixie at £1.50 = £6 v possible return of £66.82

Other bets:

1.10 Gd Electric Ladyland £1 ew at 11/2 (Caspian Queen ran badly over 6f last time; it may bounce back but not with my money on it)


1.45 Gd Magnetised £2 win at 10/3
1.45 Gd Celtic Art 50p ew at 16/1

2.45 Gd Mogul £1 win at 11/2
2.45 Gd Khalifa Sat £1 win at 13/2
English King far too short for me

3.45 Gd Mark Of The Man 50p win at 12/1
3.45 Gd Samara Bay 50p win at 18/1 (The Star's tipster has been in good form lately)

4.20 Gd Dreams Unwind 50p ew at 9/1

4.55 Gd Different Face 50p ew at 11/1

Total Multiples = £6

Total singles = £12

Total stakes = £18

Having opened an account with Bet365 earlier in the month to get better prices for my singles I should, after today. qualify for £100 of bet credits.  It will be great to be using the bookies money instead of mine for a change ?

A few winners today but my favourite hot pots were only rewarded with one winner.  Lucky old bookmakers again.  My multiples balance now stands at £640.18 (£800 Bank)

The singles bets yielded a return of £22.10 which after taking account of the £12 outlay meant a £10.10 net profit.  The singles balance is now £344.62 (£400 Bank)

Lovely to have £100 in credits added to my Bet365 account.  I am going to really enjoy spending the bookies money. My actual balance was £90.73 before the £100 was added so I reckon that I have done well since opening the account.

Another day at Goodwood tomorrow where I will once more dabble in some long shots.  I need a 100/1 winner to scoop the Naps prize this month so any good ideas are welcome.

From 1st August I will just be looking at backing or laying favourites or not betting if I don't like the look of a race.  I am also hoping that I will cut the time down in carrying out my research but I guess I'm dreaming

 

 

 

 


 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
Results Update
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1.10 Goodwood - 1pt win Show Me Show Me @ 7/1 Bet365

Not been flying this season but has come down the handicap as a result and I think he'll really enjoy the way the race is run today. Looks sure to be fast and furious and his only ever previous run over course and distance saw him a good 3rd in a group 3. Ran respectably at Ascot off 6lbs higher last month and although beaten at Pontefract last time, it's never that easy coming from off the pace there. Has been nibbled at in the betting today too and just think it could be set up nicely for him, with a few of these potentially not as well handicapped having seen their marks climb for recent wins.

1.45 Goodwood - 2pts win Magnetised @ 10/3 and 0.5pts e/w Celtic Art @ 16/1

I think Magnetised is the most likely winner here, looking potentially leniently handicapped having pulled well clear with the winner in a decent looking maiden last time. For all the winner hasn't run since, the third (beaten 7l) was only just denied off a mark of 79 last time out and Magnetised runs off 87 today. The extra couple of furlongs shouldn't be an issue so he looks rock solid here. 

I did, however, quite like Celtic Art too so I'm going to have an e/w play there too as well as a reverse forecast. This one has some rock solid form in the book, which has seen his mark climb into the 100s, but there should be plenty more to come at this trip as there is plenty of stamina in his pedigree and has shaped as if needing at least 1m2f in his career to date. Looks overpriced.

2.15 Goodwood - 3pts win Yazaman @ 13/8 Bet365

Unfortunately nothing clever about this selection but I do think he'll take the world of beating. Was a big eyecatcher at Ascot and for all he couldn't keep going to win at Newmarket last time, the greater emphasis on speed today will help. Will absolutely relish the easy 6f here and I think he wins.

2.45 Goodwood - 1pt win Mogul @ 11/2 Bet365

I am a fan of English King as a horse but I don't think there should be as big a gap as there is between him and Mogul in the market as there was very little to split them in the Derby. Mogul looked laboured at Ascot but the ground was on the softer side which wouldn't have suited him and he'll certainly enjoy conditions more today. This isn't a huge field so could be a bit tactical and he travelled better than English King in the Derby, with the latter taking quite a while to get going and if this turns into a bit of a dash in a smallish field I think Mogul could take advantage and looks the bet at the prices.

3.15 Goodwood - 2pts Fancy Blue @ 5/2 Bet365

Another pretty conventional selection but who cares if they win! I backed Nazeef at Ascot and she did the job nicely but I'd have some reservations about the trip as she's not guaranteed to stay. Magic Wand is an admirably globetrotting filly but giving weight away, I think Fancy Blue looks like the one to be on. She did very well to win the Diane in France last time, battling on well to get on top of the extremely likeable and tough Alpine Star late on and I think that form is good. This filly stays this trip extremely well so I've no doubt we'll see her best performances over middle distances and I think she's more than capable of giving a beating to her elders. 

3.45 Goodwood - 1pt e/w Monza City @ 18/1 Bet365

Favourite is thrown in if you can take the form of his run two starts back literally but he's not much of a price so I'll try find an e/w alternative, especially as the favourite might be best on soft ground. Monza City was well fancied on debut when disappointing but shaped better last time out at Newmarket despite being last of five. Was only beaten four lengths and faded late on so the return to a sharper track should suit his positive racing style today and that race looks reasonably good. Everything in it that has run since is rated in the 80s and Monza City goes off 69 today so looks potentially well treated so 18/1 looks quite big for all Mark Johnston's horses can be difficult to predict.

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12 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Goodwood 

1.10 Bal Mal 4/1 5th

1.45 Zabeel Champion 5/1 2nd

2.15 Supremacy 11/2 winner

2.45 Al Aasy 9/2 Last 

3.15 Nazeef 5/2 3rd 

Small profit on the day. Made a balls up picking Al Aasy as the ground went against him. Should had known it was going to get quicker . Thought Nazeef stayed on well, so there’s hope for him at the distance. Try again tomorrow.

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