Racing Chat - Monday July 20th

[BillyHills]

5 meetings on Monday

Would you believe the richest race of the day is a 3m Handicap Hurdle at Gowran Park!

330 Gowran - Ratings

 

2pts win Flooring Porter 5/1 bet365
1pt EW Cusp Of Carabelli 10/1 bet365
50p R/V Exacta

 

[black rabbit]

Flippa The Strippa   1 pt  win 10/1   7 00 windsor

 

 

P/L Account  = + 117.25 pts

[Trotter]

Having a look at the summer jumpers for a change !

2.10 MR - 3 mile handicap hurdle - Putting Green - win at 11/1 Ladbrokes

I like the look of Putting Green who's won over the trip, has a couple of wins at a similar track (perth) acts on the good going. He's 5lbs higher than his last win which doesn't seem insurmountable. Main doubt is that he hasn't run since last October but the trainer has sent out 3 winners from his last 5 runners so hopefully the team is fit

[Trotter]

2 hours ago, Trotter said:

Having a look at the summer jumpers for a change !

2.10 MR - 3 mile handicap hurdle - Putting Green - win at 11/1 Ladbrokes

I like the look of Putting Green who's won over the trip, has a couple of wins at a similar track (perth) acts on the good going. He's 5lbs higher than his last win which doesn't seem insurmountable. Main doubt is that he hasn't run since last October but the trainer has sent out 3 winners from his last 5 runners so hopefully the team is fit

what a bummer ........ I spent ages on that race and now my horse is a non runner !

?

sod it, I'll have a day off and watch the cricket !

[The Equaliser]

One multiple today with 4 selections

4.20 Ayr Thai Terrier £1 win AT 9/2
5.00 Win Theotherside £2 win at 9/4
7.00 Win Yimou £2 win at 3/1
7.30 Win A La Voile £2 at 11/4

6 doubles at 70p = £4.20 v poss return of £70.48
4 trebles at 40p =  £1.60 v poss Return of £107.91

Other singles bets:

I have had to bite the bullet and open an account with Bet365 as I'm fed up with Betfair/Paddy Power serving up cramped odds.

2.40 M/Rasen Get an Oscar 50p win at 25/1 Bet365
7.00 Win Glamerous Anna 50p win at 10/1

I have loads of other potential 50p win bets but have run out of time in the run up to my lunch time activities. May come back later with some add ons.  I have noticed that the sporting press seems to focus on old form rather than current form for their selection processes.  I guess that is where the value may be found but I believe that it is much safer to concentrate on good recent form myself.

Total Multiple bets = £5.80

Total Single bets = £8.00 (Let's hope that the more fancied horses live up to expectations today

Total stakes = £13.80

A couple more.  Couldn't get the right prices on the others.

5.30 Win The Stalking Moon 50p win at 40/1
8.00 Win Jen's Fella 50p win at 33/1

Total singles stakes now £9.00

Two winners today but not in my multiples unfortunately.  I chose Thai Terrier over Glasses Up and that was a mistake.

Anyway Multiples -£5.80 and a balance C/Fwd of £641.83 (£800 Bank)

Singles produced two winners won at 3/1 for £2 and a 50p winner at 10/1 that was, in my opinion, was wrongly reduced by 15p in the pound as the withdrawn horse was 14/1 and the rule 4 deduction should have been 5p in the pound.  I may dispute this with Betfair Sportsbook but one needs the patience of Job to try and resolve any queries on Betfair IMO.  Anyway the return was £4.75.  Hence the outlay was £9.00 with returns of £12.75 = a profit of £3.75.  The C/Fwd balance is £346.19 (£400 bank)  

The 50p bets showed a profit of £2.75 less B/Fwd -£3.50 = C/Fwd - £0.75

Very few good quality races today; I will have to make the numbers up with Class 4 races.

 

 

 

  

 

Edited July 20, 2020 by The Equaliser
Results Update

[The Equaliser]

1 minute ago, Trotter said:

what a bummer ........ I spent ages on that race and now my horse is a non runner !

?

sod it, I'll have a day off and watch the cricket !

I half thought that you would watch golf instead ?

[LeMale]

22 hours ago, BillyHills said:

5 meetings on Monday

Would you believe the richest race of the day is a 3m Handicap Hurdle at Gowran Park!

330 Gowran - Ratings

 

2pts win Flooring Porter 5/1 bet365
1pt EW Cusp Of Carabelli 10/1 bet365
50p R/V Exacta

 

Doesn't get much better than that...Thanks mate. I'm sure i've lost out on whatever that is at the bottom (50p R/V Exacta), but hey, not gonna be greedy i done the win and the EW tip so thanks again  

[BillyHills]

27 minutes ago, LeMale said:

Doesn't get much better than that...Thanks mate. I'm sure i've lost out on whatever that is at the bottom (50p R/V Exacta), but hey, not gonna be greedy i done the win and the EW tip so thanks again  

Exacta paid £112.50 for a quid

[Bathtime For Rupert]

5.00 Windsor - 1pt win Betsy Trotter @ 10/1 Bet365

Has excuses recently and plenty of form in the book to suggest she can go well today. These are her conditions and she ran many good races off these marks last year. Was thrown into a listed race on seasonal reappearance where she naturally was outclassed but shaped better last time on soft ground at Haydock. Best form has come on good, she's come down the weights a bit and this is an easier race too.

5.30 Windsor - 1pt e/w Burniston Rocks @ 20/1 Lads

Ran many good races over 7f in novices last year, usually finishing well to suggest that a mile would be ideal. For some reason ran over 1m4f on seasonal reappearance which he was never going to stay and now gets the mile for the first time. Down the weights again and looks a big price under potentially optimal conditions.

7.00 Windsor - 1pt win Glamorous Anna @ 13/2 Bet365

Unlucky here last time when looking all over the winner before jinking and being caught on the line - form looks strong with the winner running well twice since in hotter company and the field was nicely spread out. Plenty of her form from last year suggests she's up to this and should make another bold bid.

7.30 Windsor - 0.5pts e/w Queen of All @ 20/1 Bet365

Big price here and didn't run great on her reappearance but was free that day and although upped in trip today, has stamina in her pedigree to suggest she'll stay if settling better. Form of her two comfortable wins on the all-weather read well and suggest she's well handicapped so if it was just an off day last time, can be forgiven at a big price.

[MCLARKE]

10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

I have had to bite the bullet and open an account with Bet365 as I'm fed up with Betfair/Paddy Power serving up cramped odds.

I'm surprised you don't have accounts with all the bookies (at least those on odds-checkers that offer bog). I think getting the best prices makes all the difference and it's also the reason why accumulators or not as good as singles because you can't use different bookies for the accumulator.

[The Equaliser]

11 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

I'm surprised you don't have accounts with all the bookies (at least those on odds-checkers that offer bog). I think getting the best prices makes all the difference and it's also the reason why accumulators or not as good as singles because you can't use different bookies for the accumulator.

I used to have a lot of accounts with bookmakers and just got confused with all that was going on.  I then decided to just use Betfair especially as I am interested in "lay" betting.  I couldn't resist the temptation today when I saw "Get An Oscar" shown as 25/1 when Betfair Sportsbook was showing about 16/1.  I did enjoy today being able to watch and take advantage over the differing two comparisons.  Also, if a horse comes within my category of 2/1 - 7/2 then my stakes are £2 and I can use the Betfair Exchange where I can invariably get better odds.  I'll see how it goes before embarking on other bookmaker accounts.  Thanks for your helpful comment though.

One thing that has annoyed me today was that for one of my 50p bets I chose Glamerous Anna and backed it at 10/1 (in the race where I also backed Yimou for £2 and included the beast in my multiples).  Anyway, Glamerous Anna won at an SP of 13/2.  However, Grandfather Tom was withdrawn from the race at a price of 14/1.  The Racing Post said that there should have been a deduction of 5p in the pound.  Betfair Sports Book has deducted 15p in the pound which I think is wrong.  I checked the Rule 4 deduction tables.  Even if Sportsbook used the 13/2 price the deduction should have only been 10p in the pound.  I don't know if you have ever used the Betfair messaging service but it is a nightmare to resolve queries.  These people always seem to want screenshots and even then always claim that they are right and will not amend anything it seems to me

[MCLARKE]

I assume the R4 deduction will depend on what price Grandfather Tom was at the time you made your bet.

It is an interesting question about Betfair, are you better taking Betfair BSP or the early prices with the bookmakers?

I am running out of bookmakers that I can use so I when I am analysing strategies I am now using BSP to quantify the profitability of the strategy. I am using proportional stakes as using LSP can be very misleading due to the occasional high priced winner.

As an example if you had backed every horse on the flat last year that had finished 11th, 12th or 13th you would have made a profit of 1,102 points. However there were winners at prices of 421, 336, 331 and 243 that account for all of that profit, i.e. just 4 of the 3,523 selections.