Rugby World Cup 2019

[harry_rag]

17 hours ago, LePapo said:

solid bets all of them, russia first team to score 10 points at 9/1 is just massive value. I will bet on that. I'm on +3.5 penalties scored as well, weather forecast says it will rain tomorrow afternoon and evening.. so fly halves might have a big role in the match. 

I assume that's Russia +3.5 penalties, in which case well done. Shame they couldn't win the race to 10 points while they had the 2 man advantage. No joy for me on the points and tries lines but at least they covered the handicap and the yellow card bet landed.

Looking ahead to the 3 games over the next couple of days, these are my thoughts so far.

Fiji/Uruguay: Don't think I'll be betting on the handicap in this one, too close to call at +31. If you gave me a free bet that I had to use on that market I'd take the +31 but without a great deal of confidence. I do think Fiji will put on a show here, maybe from the start, but finding a value bet to side with them might take some doing.

Italy/Canada: Another trappy one, Italy not a team who do many big margins of victory but Canada are certainly capable of being on the wrong end of a spanking. Again, I'd stick a free bet on the +21 line but I don't think I'll do so with any real money.

England/USA: I think I'll be taking the best available + line on this one (currently +34 at evens). England are a team who often run up a big winning margin but USA have only failed 3 times in the last 4 years with that big a start (twice against Ireland and 64-0 v South Africa in the last World Cup). Next biggest defeat after that is by 23 points v Scotland. Given the circumstances, this looks a more confident pick. Opening game for USA and fairly quick turnaround for a much changed England.

Best check the weather and see if that is likely to be a factor in these games.

[harry_rag]

I might be buying into the narrative (players being lucky to get away with yellow rather than red) but tomorrow's game certainly won't be one for shrinking violets. With that in mind, I've bought bookings at 16 with SX (was 14 just before I bet, 19 with SPIN) and had a bit on a red card at just better than 9/1 with Hills (dutching 16/1 and 25/1 for which team will get the first red card). Hills go 7/2 for a yellow card in both halves and 4/1 a yellow card for each team which might not be a bad alternative angle to the spread bet. Red card is 9/1 in a couple of other places.

Only other bet so far is Veitokani to score a try at 5/4 with Fred.

[LePapo]

Still can't believe how russia didn't score a try with two more players for almost ten minutes... I don't think tomorrow match will be a blow out, most of the players that took part against Australia are either on the bench or were left out of the squad. Still there's a gap in quality between Fiji's second team and Uruguay's first. The spread looks about right to me.. so not bet for me on this market. There's one bet I really like which is -5.5 conversions at 2.45, -6.5 conversions is available at 1.65, I've even seen one bookie offering 1.45 on -7.5 conversions which to me is value. No match has seen 8 conversions in this world cup so far, and the only ones with more than 5 were ITA-NAM and WAL-GEO.. Wales and Italy have accurate shooters. Tomorrow, Volavola is not starting and I imagine it will be Matavesi who'll shoot the penalties and conversions. From what I could find, he has an all time record of 17/25 conversions which equals to 68%. Alright but far from outstanding. In Uruguay, I found that Berchesi has around a 73% conversion rate (8/11). It's true that the sample is not big enough to correctly assess the shooting ratio but it can show more or less some trends. Then with a 70% conversion rate, there should be around 8-9 tries to have over 5.5 conversions.. The spread on tries is currently at 7.5 (1.80-1.90 more or less), so -5.5 conversions at 2.45 represents nice value to me. I think -6.5 is a safer option but would have loved higher odds than 1.65...

-5.5 conversions at 2.45 with Unibet

[harry_rag]

That looks a great bet but I couldn't see it anywhere with the firm you mention. Probably would resist following as I've sold converted tries and missed kicks pre-tournament.

Had a few more bets based on a tip I saw elsewhere. Didn't look at Uruguay tryscorers but I'm 100% certain I'd have taken this bet if I had.

Kessler to score a try at 10/1 with Fred and 2 or more at 130/1 with Lads (using boost, 150/1 with 365). Also bought Uruguay front 5 try minutes at 12 with SX. The other 4 are makeweights but it's still a decent enough bet.

He's scored 12 tries in 34 starts and 6 in the last 5 (two braces).

[LePapo]

First shock of the tournament today! Matavesi had a shocker today scoring just 1/3 conversions and missing a penalty... same for Volavola who missed two conversions which eventually costed them the match. Probably not betting for tomorrow's matches, maybe backing USA on the handicap is the most interesting option as teams have struggled to cover big handicaps but I'm not entirely conviced.. Any suggestions for tomorrow?

[harry_rag]

I've taken USA +34 at evens.

In the other game I've just had small interest bets on Canada 4+ tries at 7/1 PP and both teams 2+ tries in each half at 66/1 with PP, Van der Merwe brace and hat trick at 15/1 and 130/1 with Lads.

[harry_rag]

I've also bought USA front 5 try minutes at 8 with SPIN. That's largely on the back of Joe Taufete'e who has scored 18 tries in 16 starts for the USA! Not the worst anytime bet at 9/2 but I just missed 6/1 with Lads so will stick to the spread bet (with a quid on him scoring a brace at 130/1 with Lads).

[harry_rag]

For tomorrow, I've gone for a buy of the USA front 5 try minutes at 10 (sticking with Taufete'e) and Canada hotshots at 8 (not often you get the chance to break even in the event of one of the players phoning in sick)! Both of those with SPIN. Also on Van der Merwe try at 13/2 Skybet.

[LePapo]

For tomorrow, I’ll just bet on Scotland-Russia. The spread a week or so ago was 43,5 which was huge for this match. I just forgot to bet on that and now it’s around 33-35 I think which I think is a bit high but not enough to get involved. Scotland is resting their main players for their crucial match against Japan and Russia imo has performed really well during this WC. So I can’t see this being a blowout like SA or NZ against Canada and Namibia. I’m on -5.5 conversions @2.20. Laidlaw is not playing so it should be Adam Hastings who kicks the conversions and penalties. I did some research on his stats and he has an all time record of 52/72 conversions , about a 72.20% conversion rate. The other one that might kick conversions as well is Peter Horne but according to the stats he has a lower conversion rate than Hastings. On the other hand, Russia have shown little in attack in this WC, their one try came after a mistake in the opening match so I expect little from them tomorrow and their Fly half Kushnarev is not starting tomorrow and it will be Gaisin who kicks the penalties and conversions (I imagine) I found he has an all time record of 18/25 = 72%. So to have +5.5 conversions with that conversion rate (72% for both) there should be around 8-9 tries which I just think it’s quite a lot for this match. Also I’m on no team to score 40 points at 2.25. Both teams have been really poor offensively in this WC and even if Scotland manage to score a few tries early in the match I can see them playing with less intensity and resting more players once they got the bonus point. 4 tries are 20 points if they are converted it’s 28, still 12 points away from 40...

Argentina Usa: nothing that I particularly like. Argentina are already out but a victory against Usa will guarantee qualification for the next WC. I read that there’s still some motivation as it’s probably the last world cup match for several players.. If I had to bet, I’d be more on the argentinian side 

Wales Fiji: I have an outright on Fiji , I need them not to score 3 tries. Regarding the match not much appeals here. Wales have not disappointed in the WC and I think they can easily beat France in the QF.

So all in all it’s just two bets for me tomorrow both with Unibet

-5.5 conversions (2.20)

No team to score 40 points (2.25)

 

 

[LePapo]

Ufff bad loss here, Russian defence all over the place and Scotland punishing every Russian mistake.. Hastings pretty accurate today. Failed analysis from my part. Have a bet remaining on fiji -1.5 tries... 

[notanotherdonkey]

Australia v Georgia  Australia -25 points at even money at Bet365.Put my bet on and changed to -26 now.

[notanotherdonkey]

No joy, good Luck

 

[mikefoot123]

is there anything good looking for the quarters?

[Sir Puntalot]

 to Punters Lounge @mikefoot123   

[mikefoot123]

21 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:

 to Punters Lounge @mikefoot123   

Thanks @Sir Puntalot

[harry_rag]

On 10/15/2019 at 11:26 AM, mikefoot123 said:

is there anything good looking for the quarters?

Just been looking at the handicap lines and my picks would be:

England -8 v Australia

New Zealand -12 v Ireland

France +8 v Wales

Japan +15 v South Africa

New Zealand would be my strongest pick and Japan the only other I can see myself putting hard cash on. The other two are more like what I'd go for if you gave me a free bet that had to be used on the handicap, with England the closest of all of them to being a coin toss.

[mikefoot123]

19 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Just been looking at the handicap lines and my picks would be:

England -8 v Australia

New Zealand -12 v Ireland

France +8 v Wales

Japan +15 v South Africa

New Zealand would be my strongest pick and Japan the only other I can see myself putting hard cash on. The other two are more like what I'd go for if you gave me a free bet that had to be used on the handicap, with England the closest of all of them to being a coin toss.

Yeah agree - Ireland have been pretty ropey this WC so could easily see NZ putting a lot on them. Would be very surprised if Japan and SA isnt very close

[KikoCy]

What's up guys, long time.

I am looking at:

England by 1-12 @ 2.60

I am most confident in England, ironically. The statistical models has them on +12 but Australia are WC game raisers and are also playing their strongest team. England show up for big games and are in great form. 

Wales by 1-12 @ 2.50

Wales are just too good for France yet historically their games are quite close. Nothing from the French has really impressed me and they should have lost that game vs Argentina in the group stages, personally.

All Blacks by 13 or more @ 1.91 (-12.5 Handicap)

I can see Ireland targeting their lineout as it's been their weakest point but ABs have their Whitelock/Retallick pairing back. Also haven't lost their own scrum in forever, it will be a forwards battle and phases while they spread the ball for their wingers to get it over probably. Or an intercept while Ireland are coming forward. New Zealand can withstand phases and target them on the counter too so will be interesting.

Murray and Sexton need to have a good game, but specifically Murray's redistribution at the breakdown in finding players and space (looking at you Stockdale)

Jack Goodhue anytime try scorer @ 3.75 has value, for me

Springboks by 15 or more (-14.5) @ 1.80

Springboks, pretty self explanatory. Demolished Japan in a friendly pre-WC (41-7) and are even stronger now. Le Roux is a liability however, would have preferred to see Willemse given a start here. I also prefer Nkosi over Mapimpi at 11 however Mapimpi is good for rebound tries/width whereas Nkosi is better for counters IMO.

Watching Japan vs Scotland, they gave 150% and I am sure they are gassed. Their bench is also not even close and we (Springboks) have an absolute monster front-row to come on ~60th minute and pin them back. 

Once we score, we don't let teams back in so getting a try in the first 10 minutes will be crucial. 

Might be a bit biased so take that with a grain of salt.

 

A 4-fold of the above comes in @ 22.35.

 

Enjoy the games!

 

Edited October 18, 2019 by KikoCy
some extra thoughts

[harry_rag]

On 10/16/2019 at 2:54 PM, harry_rag said:

Just been looking at the handicap lines and my picks would be:

England -8 v Australia

New Zealand -12 v Ireland

France +8 v Wales

Japan +15 v South Africa

New Zealand would be my strongest pick and Japan the only other I can see myself putting hard cash on. The other two are more like what I'd go for if you gave me a free bet that had to be used on the handicap, with England the closest of all of them to being a coin toss.

2 out of 2 so far but only had cash on the All Blacks. Playing Japan +15 as a single tomorrow with a small double adding France +8 into the mix.

[harry_rag]

3 out of 4 for me on the handicap calls with Japan letting me down, 3 out of 4 for @KikoCy as well with England ruining the fourfold.

Onto the semis next with my 10/3 for a NZ/SA final looking in reasonable shape.

[KikoCy]

Unfortunately, England ran away with it, they were just too strong. I feel for the Wallabies fans but at least Cheika is now a thing of the past.

I will be back with my selections for the 2 semis probably this Friday.

Sidenote: Convinced my friend last year (post-France win) to throw money on the Boks to win the whole thing @ 12.00.

Complete drunk decision as it's turned out to be more profitable to simply bet on them to win each game as an accumulation of the previous winnings e.g 1.7 * 1.91 * 1.8 etc etc)

Especially with the lowered odds coming in to the tournament and cashing out the profit and doing that was a better idea... Food for thought.

[Torque]

 

On 10/23/2019 at 6:41 AM, KikoCy said:

Sidenote: Convinced my friend last year (post-France win) to throw money on the Boks to win the whole thing @ 12.00.

Complete drunk decision as it's turned out to be more profitable to simply bet on them to win each game as an accumulation of the previous winnings e.g 1.7 * 1.91 * 1.8 etc etc)

Especially with the lowered odds coming in to the tournament and cashing out the profit and doing that was a better idea... Food for thought.

I think this is quite a common scenario @KikoCy and it's certainly something I see in tennis. It makes sense though when you consider that the margin on the odds is that much higher in a tournament winner market than a 1x2 market because of the higher number of runners. That said though, it's easier to just bet on an outright rather than bet on each round and maybe the higher payout betting on each round isn't worth the extra time spent doing it.

[KikoCy]

8 hours ago, Torque said:

 

I think this is quite a common scenario @KikoCy and it's certainly something I see in tennis. It makes sense though when you consider that the margin on the odds is that much higher in a tournament winner market than a 1x2 market because of the higher number of runners. That said though, it's easier to just bet on an outright rather than bet on each round and maybe the higher payout betting on each round isn't worth the extra time spent doing it.

For sure, you bring up some valid points yet the spread is almost always covered in rugby so it really depends!

[harry_rag]

Thoughts on semis; NZ by 1-12 seems a great bet but, for the longer odds, I’m risking 1-10 at 21/10 Betway. I fancy SA on the handicap or by 1-12 perhaps, not decided yet.

888 offer 7/5 in both games for last tryscorer to be “any other” (sub, no try or pen try) which is generous, just done the double for interest.

Hills prices for >1.5 cards look decent, will play that in some way.

[harry_rag]

3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Hills prices for >1.5 cards look decent, will play that in some way.

Done singles and the double; 11/4 tomorrow and 7/2 Sunday.

[notanotherdonkey]

Come on England.Hope England win now my pick New Zealand are out.Good Luck

[notanotherdonkey]

Well done South Africa no excuses as they where the better team all game.Think England just thought they just had to turn up to win and the final was against New Zealand in the last round.What a difference a game makes.