CzechPunter Posted April 17, 2019 Author Share Posted April 17, 2019 RBA came to the match with a loss in mind already, pathetic unfortunately. Apologies if you've followed, never expected him to win, but, after so many good wins this year, I wasn't expecting him to just bend over for Nadal. Shocked at Fritz as well, I wonder what's going on with Diego, even the odds went up on Fritz before the start of the match and he won so easily. Jason Jung to beat Goncalo Oliveira at 1.93 with Pinnacle Jung is the better player of the two in my opinion and the Chinese clay isn't really the same clay as in, say, Monte Carlo, with hard court players doing quite well on it. Oliveira is 8-14 this season and he's been in a slump since breaking through in 2017, so I have no idea what makes him the favorite here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted April 17, 2019 Author Share Posted April 17, 2019 On the plus side of things, I suppose that Norrie to finish in Top 90 this season is a lock now that he won today. 501pts already, just needs to stay healthy. Could also just beat Sonego tomorrow, although I don't exactly fancy him to do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted April 17, 2019 Share Posted April 17, 2019 Daniel Elahi Galan (-1.5 sets) to beat Bradley Klahn at 2.40 with Unibet Daniel showed us how good he can play on clay last week in Houston by reaching the semis where he lost to Casper Ruud. No shame in losing to Casper. Formwise I'd say that Daniel has a massive advantage here after Houston. Statistics also show Daniel can beat Brad on clay as he did in Sarasota 2017 by 7-6 7-5. He also beat Paolo Lorenzi by 7-6 6-4 in first round of Houston last week. Add that Santiago Giraldo beat Brad Klahn by 6-4 6-4 last week in Houston round 1 and that Brad lost in Monterrey quarter by 7-5 6-4. All things considered I think this looks like a straight sets win for Daniel. Korayu and CzechPunter 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bettingboots Posted April 17, 2019 Share Posted April 17, 2019 Whats going on with Fritz? I keep hearing he's terrible on clay and MC is supposed to be one of the slowest clay surfaces around, but here he's swept Schwartzman aside, and also was beating Tsonga easily before the Frenchman retired. Joker up next for him. Can he keep defying the odds ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted April 17, 2019 Share Posted April 17, 2019 1 hour ago, Bettingboots said: Whats going on with Fritz? I keep hearing he's terrible on clay and MC is supposed to be one of the slowest clay surfaces around, but here he's swept Schwartzman aside, and also was beating Tsonga easily before the Frenchman retired. Joker up next for him. Can he keep defying the odds ? Well he has pretty good ground strokes and his serve isn't missfireing so if he keeps that up I'd say he can keep it even with Nole. Bettingboots 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted April 17, 2019 Author Share Posted April 17, 2019 He's taken a page from the Isner book I suppose. Honestly though, Granollers was able to outplay him in Houston, so Nole might just destroy him if he plays well. Tsonga was injured and Schwartzman is in some sort of a limbo at the moment, might've been just lucky. The confidence from those wins is going to boost his serve though, so he might be able to stay with Nole for a while. Bettingboots 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bettingboots Posted April 17, 2019 Share Posted April 17, 2019 Big servers are usually meat and drink to Djokovic but he seems a little off his game lately and those temper tantrums aren't a good sign. I suppose thats why you're getting 1/10 and not 1/25 here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aphro Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 G'day! My value radar showed me that Pella G today has value in his odds 2.5 at Pinnacle. Does anyone have thoughts of betting against Cecchinato? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_African_Punter Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 1 hour ago, aphro said: G'day! My value radar showed me that Pella G today has value in his odds 2.5 at Pinnacle. Does anyone have thoughts of betting against Cecchinato? Cilic was pretty awful against Pella, many unforced errors! Not sure one can read too much into Pella's performance against Cilic who has been out of form for a while now. Cecchinato was obviously sleeping in the first set against Wawrinka, but I think he is the better player so probably the odds are correct. CzechPunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aphro Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 2 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said: Cilic was pretty awful against Pella, many unforced errors! Not sure one can read too much into Pella's performance against Cilic who has been out of form for a while now. Cecchinato was obviously sleeping in the first set against Wawrinka, but I think he is the better player so probably the odds are correct. Ok, will not bet on it. So what about Medvedev? How could you evaluate his performance against Tsitsipas? My value radar points this match too as prospective. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South_African_Punter Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, aphro said: Ok, will not bet on it. So what about Medvedev? How could you evaluate his performance against Tsitsipas? My value radar points this match too as prospective. Yes, I'm strongly thinking of Medvedev as well. He has a 3-0 H2H against Tsitipas (all on hard court though) and has blown both of his opponents out of the water. Tsitipas had a few wobbles yesterday, particularly towards the end of the 2nd set, which I believe Medvedev will attempt to exploit. Set against this is that Medvedev had a terrible clay season last year (think he only won match on clay), however, that is not enough to dissuade me from betting on him, so I think I will give it a go. Edited April 18, 2019 by South_African_Punter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussietennisexpert Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Watched both Medvedev matches thinking he would drop a set, mainly because of his results so far on clay. Well, didn’t go too well for me.. He’s been serving great only dropping serve once. Been very consistent in his baseline rallies against both [although Sousa played super bad]. Hit many big shots, his dangerous short cross court backhands Or drop shots whenever needed. Grain of salt is his opponents weren’t top players super in form (albot sort of but) .. he definitly looked great.. and has been having a pretty good season so far Definitely potential against tsitsips Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussietennisexpert Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Whenever odds come out and depending.. Challenger anning k majchrzak to beat R. Ramanathan Ramanathan looked god damn awful against a future player. There was a lot of wind but not an excuse.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 23 minutes ago, aussietennisexpert said: Whenever odds come out and depending.. Challenger anning k majchrzak to beat R. Ramanathan Ramanathan looked god damn awful against a future player. There was a lot of wind but not an excuse.. Ramanathan had something going after Newport, almost breaking top 100 but he didn't get there and he's looked bad all season. He's looked pretty bad since about October I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted April 18, 2019 Author Share Posted April 18, 2019 Jung breaks in the very first game and then his shots start going wrong, just not my couple of days I guess. Attila Balasz to beat Pedro Sousa at 2.64 with Pinnacle Risking a hattrick of losses here, but I think that there is some value in backing Balasz, who's always been one of the more talented players. Not fit and not healthy most of the time, but really good when on song. He does seem to be on song this week, having won 4 sets in a row, while Sousa dropped a set against a weaker player in the first round. Balasz beat Sousa last year in a team event and, while I don't think he should be the favourite here, I think that he should be only 2.15 sort of an underdog. aussietennisexpert and Rypcio 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Sascha Zverev (-4.5) to beat Fabio Fognini at 1.96 with Unibet Can't see any scenario where Fabio covers the 4.5 handicap here. Sascha is heavily enforced for this tournament and ready to defend his 2018 semifinal spot. They met twice in 2017 on clay and hardcourt, Sascha winning both times. 6-4 6-2 on hard, 6-3 6-3 on clay in Rome third round after Fabio had beaten Andy Murray easily in straight sets I recall as a 3.60 underdog. Seeing how easily Sascha defeated Felix AA I don't think Fabio will have mutch to ask for today. CzechPunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aphro Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Norrie - his odds (2.56 at Pinnacle) look like have value, how do you think, does he have significant chance against Lorenzo? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 18 minutes ago, aphro said: Norrie - his odds (2.56 at Pinnacle) look like have value, how do you think, does he have significant chance against Lorenzo? I was thinking about Cam Norrie but I've decided not to take the risk and go for a safer bet with Sascha Zverev -4.5 instead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Just my view on Lorenzo Sonego. I feel like he is a quite overrated player right now. He is the same age as Cam Norrie but his potential is not as big. It looks like he is starting to develop into a stable top 100 player now but I don't think he will be in the top 100 in a few months. He still is far from being more than a high level challenger player. So my thought about Lorenzo is that he will not be top 60 soon and win his first ATP title this season. It might happen but not this season. Cam Norrie isn't the best of clay performers but he's still better than Lorenzo and I think he'll take at least a set today. CzechPunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted April 18, 2019 Author Share Posted April 18, 2019 A pretty fair assessment. I'd disagree with him not being in the top 100 in a few months, I think that he's going to find a solid place in that range, but a lot depends on how much he does in the main clay tournaments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 36 minutes ago, CzechPunter said: A pretty fair assessment. I'd disagree with him not being in the top 100 in a few months, I think that he's going to find a solid place in that range, but a lot depends on how much he does in the main clay tournaments. Well I can remember his straight sets loss to Roberto CB in South America in second round of one of those tournaments and that came as no surprise because I don't think he has the level for a decent top 100 player. But I might be wrong, we'll see after July. Maybe he wins some 125 point clay challenger final like the one in Szczecin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aphro Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Medvedev and Pella won, value radar rules, looking further at Norrie! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussietennisexpert Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Challenger anning k majchrzak to beat R. RamanathaN 2-0 @1.57 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Didn't know Pablo Cuevas played in Tunis this week. He's started the season pretty well so might be worth to keep an eye out for him in Tunis. To late today sincec I just saw he's up 4-2 but I might back him if he beats Victor Troicki. erny86 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussietennisexpert Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 Herbert to win a set vs Coric at 1.72 bet365 great price. He can easily usually hold his serve Well and chances end of set / tie break Coric dropped a set in both previous matches against similar quality players Herbert coming out of 2 great wins in straights + public cheering what do you guys think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted April 18, 2019 Author Share Posted April 18, 2019 Well, Coric does have a better return than Verdasco and arguably even Nishikori right now, but Herbert has been playing well, so certainly has what it takes to win a set. Certainly wouldn't want to put you off, Coric isn't waterproof by any stretch of imagination. aussietennisexpert 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 This is not my day, I'm wrong about everything and missing the bets I could have won. Fabio is beating Sascha with ease because Sascha is playing really crappy and Fabio is doing his best match of the season. I got fooled by that last result of Sascha when he beat Felix AA and the loopsided record. Not the first time I lose because of such a reason. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted April 18, 2019 Share Posted April 18, 2019 I acctually lost a bet on Sascha not so long ago in the Acapulco final and didn't learn from that about how bad he is playing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted April 18, 2019 Author Share Posted April 18, 2019 Alex Bolt to beat Goncalo Oliveira at 1.76 with Pinnacle One more shot for me against Oliveira. Jung had enough chances and Bolt was able to beat the wind with his serve today, so he should be a slightly bigger fav imo. Not much more to say honestly, I just don't rate Oliveira at all despite his win against Jung, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussietennisexpert Posted April 19, 2019 Share Posted April 19, 2019 10 hours ago, CzechPunter said: Alex Bolt to beat Goncalo Oliveira at 1.76 with Pinnacle One more shot for me against Oliveira. Jung had enough chances and Bolt was able to beat the wind with his serve today, so he should be a slightly bigger fav imo. Not much more to say honestly, I just don't rate Oliveira at all despite his win against Jung, I don’t think bolt wants to win this match .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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