Tennis Tips - April 15 - April 21

[four-leaf]

36 minutes ago, South_African_Punter said:

Indeed. I can only tell you he was at 7.50 in-play @ 4-4.

 

1 hour ago, Torque said:

The madness continues. Fognini beats Nadal in straight sets. Wonder what the price was on that.

Unibet had 9 on Fabio prematch this morning after Praj Gunneswaran had beaten Kamil Majcgldkfjg

[South_African_Punter]

Lajovic to beat Fognini at 2.75 with SportingBet

So Fognini has done extremely well this week, beating the undisputed master of clay, a certain Rafael Nadal. He now joins an elite group of only 3 other players (I think) to have beaten Nadal at Monte Carlo. However, I personally feel was something "wrong" with Nadal this week, having looked extremely vulnerable in the previous game against Pella, being 5-1 down in the 1st set. A further interesting piece of information is that Fognini has always lost his subsequent match after beating Nadal. IF Fognini plays at his best, he will roast Lajovic, at a price 1.44, I simply don't see much value in betting on Fognini and feel that the value play here is on Lajovic.

[aphro]

16 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Well if your value radar always suppose something then post a bet instead of asking what people think all the time because you seem to have some good bets to share.

Well, i think i need to explain, what value radar is. This is analytical tool made by me, i've took tennis matches from last 3 years and applied some math and AI. So i built a model that has 20-23% ROI, during the whole 3 years period. But there are several significant drawdowns for approximate 20% and i don't want anybody to lose 20 bets in a row.

I thought that applying expert's knowledge would improve this model, that's why only ask for experts opinion, after 20 opinions i would share the result of combined machine and expert's analysis.

 

For today i see value on Lajovic Dusan and South_African_Punter has the same opinion, hope this works.

[four-leaf]

Tennys Sandgren to beat Tommy Paul at 2.37 with bet365

I have to say 2.37 is juicy enough for me on Tennys today so I have to justify a bet with 365 on Tennys. They met in challenger, Savannah semis 2017 on clay and Tennys won 2-1. This ofcourse could be a tight three set battle but I give Tennys the nod here for obvious reasons that he's collecting a lot of points on the challenger tour and he's dropped in ranking due to being unable to defend points from last season so ranked 111 now doesn't mean he's worse than last season. Tommy is ranked 204 and for a guy who never been ranked top 150 I feel that Tennys should take this more often than not.