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CzechPunter

Tennis Tips - April 15 - April 21

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Challenger: Anning

Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10

Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in Anning aswell and he also reached the qf.at the Challenger in 2018. Overall 28-14 record in Anning over the years. So he should know the conditions pretty well. According to my sources he prepared for the tournament whole last week, training on clay in Anning. On the other side Mukund played in Taipei last week on indoor hard, he has to translate to clay and didn't play on clay since June 2018. Furthermore Bai is leading the H2H 2-0 with two clear wins on Hardcourt (62 61 and 63 63). I like Bai as an underdog here at home on clay.

Edited by opole

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Yan Bai (+3.5) to beat Sasi Kumar Mukund at 1.85 with Pinnacle

Fully agree with @opole on this one, hopefully I won't ruin this like I did with Ouahab last week :loon.

I'm also itching to go against Safranek, as he was tilting hard at the end of his loss against Maamoun last week, throwing his racquet to the next court and saying that he's not going to play tennis anymore. His R1 opponent isn't particularly great, however, and hasn't played on any sort of clay for quite some time, so not sure the play is warranted at just slightly above evens.

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12 hours ago, opole said:

Challenger: Anning

Sasi Kumar Mukund vs. Yan Bai @2.81 Pinnacle 5/10

Bai has a good record in Anning on clay: 2019 he reached a semifinal at the ITF tour, in 2018 he won F13 tournament in Anning aswell and he also reached the qf.at the Challenger in 2018. Overall 28-14 record in Anning over the years. So he should know the conditions pretty well. According to my sources he prepared for the tournament whole last week, training on clay in Anning. On the other side Mukund played in Taipei last week on indoor hard, he has to translate to clay and didn't play on clay since June 2018. Furthermore Bai is leading the H2H 2-0 with two clear wins on Hardcourt (62 61 and 63 63). I like Bai as an underdog here at home on clay.

Thank you for such a great analysis

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Atp Monte Carlo

j Sousa +1.5 set vs d Medvedev @ 1.53 bet365 5/10

Medvedev with a great start of the season has slowed down after Rotterdam.

He hasnt done much on clay on the big stage yet And has not played on clay this season yet. 

Stopped twice @ Monte Carlo by “clay specialists” before and only passed first round once in 3 appearances.

===

sousa Not great start of the season but ok at Miami. 

Good clay court player, with a few clay matches under his belt already this season

passed Monte Carlo first round 3 times already 

has already beaten medevedev on clay last year at estoril

I can see a 3 sets match with a very slight chance for an upset

===

ewww not even close

Edited by aussietennisexpert

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M.Cecchinato to beat D.Dzumhur 2:0 sets @1.72 Bet365

It's obvious who is the better player on a clay court. Dzumhur hasn't played any clay matches this year and on hard courts, his performance was under his level. Last year he had again negative win-loss on clay and he played twice with Cecchinato who won easily on both matches. 

On the other hand, Marco already played some matches on clay courts and won Buenos Aires. I think he will start strong and won't let any surprises because the next match will be with Wawrinka. 

GL!

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Catarina L. - Munar J. under 18.5 games @1.70  local bookie

Catarina recieved wild card for this event but i'm affraid that he's not even a challenger level player. Munar is not a world beater for sure,but he's solid enough to claim easy victory. I see something like 6-4/3 6-2/1 for the Spaniard.

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ATP: Monte Carlo

Lucas Catarina vs. Jaume Munar +1.5 sets @4.69 Pinnacle 4/10

Catarina played a fantastic match vs. Raonic last year in Monte Carlo where he won the first set and was about to defeat Raonic but lost the plot in the end and lost in three sets. I think Raonic wasn't at 100% there and pulled out later on in the tournament but it was a great match of Catarina and of course i expect another good performance from him today as he's from Monaco so this is his home tournament and probably the match of the year. He's a great prospect with decent game, i can remember following him for a few years now and he's still young at age 22 and might get his breakthrough anytime soon although i don't think he's elite level prospect i can see him cracking the Top 200/250 and this should be enough to give Munar a tough fight here. I try +1.5 sets here, Munar is strong but he's more a grinder which suit Catarina with his flat hitting. Furthermore he has a good serve. I also think Munar looked tired in Marrakech vs. Paire. 

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2 picks for ATP Monte-Carlo

1/2 amount on CECCHINATO -5 GAMES OVER DZUMHUR @ 2.21 pinnacle
+
1/2 amount on CECCHINATO -4 GAMES OVER DZUMHUR @ 1.69 pinnacle
Dzumhur struggles with form and injury all year. Cecchinato is at his best on clay and is a better clay court player even when Dzumhur is at his best.


TSONGA - FRITZ 2:0 sets @ 1.67 betfair sportsbook / willhill / pinnacle
Fritz can't play on clay courts. Tsonga has good tournament last week, expect an easy win for him.


 

Edited by WinningTipster

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1 hour ago, South_African_Punter said:

Anyone have thoughts on Schwartzmann v Edmund? I'm very close to picking the underdog (Schwartzmann) but then I remembered he got an injury in the South American swing and hasn't played that well since. 

I liked the way how Edmund played this year. Both on hard and clay courts. His powerful serves might do the difference. Did not see games of argentinian but from the statistics, he's not doing very well last games (as @CzechPunter mentioned).

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Roberto Bautista-Agut (+6.5) to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.74 with Unibet

Obviously Nadal is the beast of Monte Carlo and everything, I suppose that I don't need to go into the specifics here, but come on, should he really be a 6.5 game favourite against a legit player in his first match after an injury break? Definitely willing to give this a shot on technical terms, no need to favour Nadal so much just yet.

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1 hour ago, CzechPunter said:

Roberto Bautista-Agut (+6.5) to beat Rafael Nadal at 1.74 with Unibet

Obviously Nadal is the beast of Monte Carlo and everything, I suppose that I don't need to go into the specifics here, but come on, should he really be a 6.5 game favourite against a legit player in his first match after an injury break? Definitely willing to give this a shot on technical terms, no need to favour Nadal so much just yet.

I can see why you've taken this - Bautista Agut is a solid enough player but I wouldn't be surprised to see a fairly easy win for Nadal and there's a couple of reasons why.

Firstly, injury breaks don't concern me when it's Nadal - he's had so many of them over the years. If anyone is equipped to cope with returning at a high level immediately after injury then it's Nadal. He was in exactly the same situation this time last year - got injured at the Australian Open then didn't play again until Davis Cup in April where he demolished Sascha in straights.

Secondly, I don't rate Bautista Agut on slow surfaces at all - and this is one of the slowest on tour. Taking three sets to get past Millman who definitely dislikes clay is another bad sign in my opinion. I can still remember the way Bautista Agut lost in Davis Cup on clay against Norrie from two sets up - he never looked comfortable the whole match. Most Spanish players love the red stuff but I'm pretty sure Bautista Agut prefers hard courts and faster conditions. As always best of luck with your bet and of course it has a good chance of coming in, I'm just providing a few counterbalancing thoughts :ok

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What do you think guys about Verdasco - Herbert?

According to statistics it looks like we have a game between a guy whose preferred court type is clay against a guys whose least preferred court type is clay.

Screen Shot 2019-04-16 at 11.45.10.png

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Last week Verdasco played horrible against Menendez-Maceiras. Many UEs, weak serve after the early games in first set and he got a bad body language. Maybe he will be more motivated in MC because its a bigger tournament with more points and money...he lead 3-0 against Herbert and he stil got a chance here. Maybe its an over game, but who realy knows...

Edited by Lorenzi Musetti

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Auger-Aliassime to beat A.Zverev at 2.84 with Pinnacle

Zverev is without form and Auger presents equal and good form so at 2.84 we have nice value . Zverev lose with Muna on clay so with Auger he should have the same problems .

Kukuszkin (+1.5) to beat Tsitsipas at 2.10 with Pinnacle 

The same reasons. Tsitsipas is far from his best form and Kukuszkin had good match against Chardy . When we look at h2h Tsitsipas everytime had problems with Kukuszkin . This time it should be the same .

 Please answer what you think about this bets 

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6 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Not even sure why he went to that tournament, he tends to find it hard to motivate himself for such small events.

Zverev was searching for some match practice before he have to defend his points in rome, madrid and paris. Thats why he asked for a WC in marrakesh.

In the Munar-match his forehand was pretty bad and it looked like he did not know how to use it against munar. i think for zverev its a though one against F2A and its hard to find a bet pre-game. Felix played well against londero but this guy cant be compared to the german. felix made too much mistakes and his second serve was pretty useless. if zverev finds his forehand and serves well he will be the clear favourite here.

Edited by Lorenzi Musetti

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Gilles Simon to beat Fabio Fognini at 1.87 with Unibet

So they meet again. Have not met since 2012 and Gilles has a 5-0 record over Fabio and all 5 meetings have come on clay between april and may from 2009-2012. I suspect we will keep seeing Fabio lacklustre for the rest of the season. He will have a really poor season Fabio. He wont beat Gilles today.

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Taylor Fritz/Diego Schwartzman under 20.5 games at 1.79 with Unibet

A surface that suits Diego like a fish thrives in water. They met in Antwerpen 2016 and Diego dominated and won 6-4 6-4. He won't have more problems this time. Diego will beat Taylor easy enough for the match to end under 21 games.

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J-L Struff to beat G. Dimitrov @2.20 with bet35

Dimitrov again showed that he mentally is not ok, his first serve was under 46% and he made a lot of double errors. He beat Berrettini only because Berrettini was frustrated that he lost control of the match and start making a lot of unforced errors. 

Struff also didn't play very good but he is a fighter and showed good performance at the 3rd set against Shapovalov. Struff beat already Dimitrov in Montre Carlo therefore, with Dimitrov's current form, Struff will dominate this match and win it.

GL!
 

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