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Xcout

2nd Qualifying Round Predictions > Jul 24th & 25th

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I'm going to punt on Celtic to win with a -1 handicap. Naive given how they have often ballsed it up in the qualification stages of European competition but there we go!

BATE actually look good value to beat HJK too. Dinamo Zagreb beating Hapoel Beer Sheva seems quite generous too. Anybody know any reason why their value is so long?

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No idea how good Celtic are... but Rosenborg did not impress in the previous round. Did not show much in the first (away) leg, then needed a lot of help from the referees to take a 2:0 lead at home... them another weird decision by the referee lead to 2:1 and Rosenborg were 2-3 minutes away from elimination. Enough time for the referee to take centre stage again, another penalty and Rosenborg got through. Credit to them for taking advantage of the penalties! I've seen too many teams fail at that step (e.g. check what Levski did last week in the Europa League). So yes, Celtic is on my list of potential bets because of their home record in Europe and Rosenborg's dubious form (I've seen team change completely from one week to another though).

Another potential bet for Wednesday: Kukesi - Qarabag

Kukesi had all sorts of problems in the previous round against Valletta, took a 0:0 draw at home (very few chances for goals) and then parked their bus in front of their goal in the away leg, Valletta scored somehow in the second half... then Kukesi went searching for the vital away goal. They managed to score with only 2 shots on target! So I don't rate them highly and they look like a defensive-minded team to me.

Qarabag looked better, they won the first leg (away) 0:1 and then were happy with a 0:0 draw at home. They have the benefit of having played in the CL group stages last year, that puts them (at least) a level above Kukesi in my book. But their record shows that they don't score much (with some notable exceptions like the 5:0 at home against Samtredia last year). So I believe they will focus on defending against Kukesi and will be very happy with a single away goal. I might bet on Under 2 goals (probably not much value in the odds). But a better bet might be 0:1 correct score (@6.0), perhaps combined with 0:0 (@7.0). "Kukesi not to score" is another option but I have not checked the odds (that bet is not available at my main bookie).

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Crvena zvezda - Suduva

After knocking out Spartaks from Latvia in R1,Serbian champion Crvena zvezda (Red Star) will face Lithuanian team Suduva.
It`s not a opponent that we expected but Suduva made a suprise by knocking out APOEL from Nicosia.

Honestly i don`t know much about Suduva. They are probably team with better quality then our previous opponent but still they are coming from same region,same `football school` and because of that i expect a similar perfornance from them. Thet means a strong defensive performance and they`ll probably park the bus tonight on our biggest stadium - the famous Belgrade`s `Marakana`.

Crvena zvezda,former European Champion,is trying to revive some of glory days from the past. I hope and wish that last season was first step toward to that.
After successful Europa League campaign club is now aiming to reach Champions League group stage. It`s a difficult task,but not completely unrealistic. After all - our biggest club must have big ambitions.

One of biggest problems Crvena zvezda is facing is low budget (comparing to European competition) and because of that we`re forced to sell players very often. That`s exactly what happened from January transfer window to this one. Many players left the club but two of them were especially important - Gelor Kanga (midfielder,playing no.10 role) and Richmond Boakye (forward).
We have also sold Pesic who was Srbian`s league top-scorer.

Kanga`s replacement is Lorenzo Ebecillio,a Dutch player who came from APOEL. He`s not fully prepared and still didn`t fit with rest of the team and because of this his impact on the game is not yet so visible.
For Boakye we didn`t find replacement. Club menagement is still working on that.
In front of a goal we can expect very talented but inexperienced  youngster Joveljic (at age of 19 he`s compared with David Trezeguet) or Pavkov who is very limited player in term of quality.
So it`s obvious that our offensive still suffer a bit and not efficient enough.

On the other side - Zvezda`s backline suffered small change. Instead of Damian le Tallec we brought Milos Degenek,Aussie international who was with his national team recently in Russia.
Our defence didn`t concede a single goal in three official matches of the new season.
Expected line-up
Borjan
Stojkovic-Savic-Degenek-Rodic
Krsicic-Ebicillio-Jovicic
Ben-Pavkov(Joveljic)-Radonjic

Even with small problems considering building new team,Crvena zvezda is clear favorite not just in tonight`s match,but in this two leg tie.
Coach Milojevic will demand more cautious approach with an idea to win this match with clean sheet if possible.
And that`s exactly what i expect to happen.

Crvena zvezda to win to nil @1.80 (local)






 

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Sturm Graz +1.25AH @2.16 (and still rising) is good value bet in my opinion. I don't see why Ajax is seen as a big/huge favorite here. The friendlies, even with strong(est) line-ups, didn't show anything promising. Lack of creativity. First 'real' match of the season and Ajax is simply not ready.

Sturm Graz on the other hand had a decent prep-campaign (not real tough opponents) and will try to get a result here. Draw is enough. I expect them to park the bus and I don't see Ajax getting trough with more than +1 goal (if they get trough at all).

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Dinamo Zagreb will have 9 new players in first 11, and they didnt play official game this season.

Thatswhy odds on home win are so high.

Dinamo certainly have quality to pass Hapoel, but also this is not game for higher stake. 

Edited by Crobino

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Legia Warsaw vs Spartak Trnava
2018, July 24, 21:00 (CET Time)
Champions League Qualifying

Legia Warsaw arrives to this fixture after defeating Cork City by winning both games. They won the first leg by the minimum, which allowed them to face with a little ease the match at home for the second leg, where they won 3-0.

Legia wants to return to participate in the group stage of the Champions League, the last time they did was in 2016-2017 and shared a group with Real Madrid, Borussi Dortmund, and Sporting CP. His most outstanding result was a 3-3 draw at home against Real Madrid, as well as a 1-0 victory against Sporting CP. However, the defeats against Borussia were key to not advancing, but the were able to play Europa League, where Ajax eliminated him.

While the match does not come at the best time because they lost the Super Cup to Arka, and after the first league game defeat against Zaglebie, players will appreciate having a new opportunity. And seek to recover from these adverse results.

In European qualifiers they usually give good games at home, where they usually win, and sometimes for more than one goal difference,emphasizes that his rivals rarely score more than one goal.

The Trnava for its part eliminated the Bosnian Zrinjski, won the first leg at home for the minimum, and in the return took advantage of the lead, that although the game ended tied thanks to the first leg goal manage to advance to this fixture.

In 1996 was the last occasion that Trnava dispute stage of groups at European level, the time they got nearer was in 2014-2015 where they play the round of Playoff, but they lost against FC Zurich. It has been characterized in its eliminatory matches by being difficult at away, obtaining important ties or losing by a one goal. The last time they lost by more than one goal in a foreign playground was 0-2 against Lokomotiv Moscow in 2011-2012.

This will be the first match between them.

For the game considering the odds, I find that the best option is to take the home side with an Asian handicap of -1.25 with a medium stake. Since although the local can obtain the victory, I consider that the Trnava was will focus on defense in order to avoid a considerable defeat for the second leg. But the Legia will seek to get a good start on the eliminatory.

Legia Warsaw -1.25 AH with 5 units @ 1.98 at Dafabet

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5 hours ago, Xcout said:

Legia Warsaw vs Spartak Trnava
2018, July 24, 21:00 (CET Time)
Champions League Qualifying

Legia Warsaw -1.25 AH with 5 units @ 1.98 at Dafabet

Result:

Legia Warsaw 0 - 2 Spartak Trnava

-5 units

Spartak played better than Legia and keep their concentration in every moment, in contrast to Legia. And was the main reason for the 2 goals advantage that Trnava will have for the return leg. A disastrous match for Legia Warsaw, I just do not see how they can recover in the second leg.

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Celtics odds have increased up to 1.55, I think it might be a very close match. Keen to take Celtic for a close victory, maybe 1-0 the unders at 1.80 also look interesting. Still everything is relaying on the multiples absences, Dembele, Simunovic, Boyata and Lustig, that Celtic will have, together with the change in coach with Rosenborg, now in the hands of Rini Coolen.  Despite tempting, I would stay away from this one.

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To be honest...the bets didn't work out as expected. It could easily have been 3-0 and 2-2 (and any other outcome). Ajax was the better team, created more, but Sturm had also some strong chances. 

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12 hours ago, Charon84 said:

To be honest...the bets didn't work out as expected. It could easily have been 3-0 and 2-2 (and any other outcome). Ajax was the better team, created more, but Sturm had also some strong chances. 

Sometimes things go our way, sometimes it doesn't.  The thing is to keep going. Good analysis.

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