UEFA Nations League Predictions > Sep 6th - 11th

[godofhorses]

2 hours ago, allyhibs said:

I'm not your usual bitter Jock with a chip on my shoulder though. My mother is English, I have Aunts, Uncles, Cousins and many friends who are English. My opinion on the English football team has nothing to do with some sort of pathetic prejudice, it's based on my knowledge of the sport of football and my experience of life ( I'm 49 years old). 

In my opinion, the hype around this England side is way overblown, they're a decent side, nothing more. From a betting point of view, which is what this forum is all about, all the value lies with Spain.

Lions 

What crap refereeing, not sure how they beat us!

[Pep004]

Denmark v Wales

Posted on September 9, 2018 Footalyct

Betting suggestion: Wales +0,5 @1,81 Pinnacle

Who knows where will be heads of Danish players this evening. As you probably know, they aren’t in the best relationship with football association of Denmark which was forced to pick players from futsal and from low tier leagues to fill the squad for the friendly match against Slovakia. Now, their main players are back, available for the match against Wales, but for sure things aren’t settled yet and who knows what kind of Denmark will we see on the pitch. Without a doubt, they have a quality squad, strong especially from set-pieces but however, I think that Wales is a bit underestimated here. I’ve been thinking about them already against Ireland where they literally trashed their big rivals with 4-1. The only goal of Ireland came after a huge mistake of Ramsey in the buildup, but otherwise, they played really amazing. Giggs started UNL with 3 points, there is an amazing atmosphere in the locker-room and I cannot see them loosing in Denmark today. I’m not saying that it will be an easy match for them, it won’t for sure, but I do expect a low scoring game, played with more caution and very possibly a draw.

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[bookiebasher]

18 hours ago, allyhibs said:

Well said that man, couldn't put it better myself.

England, the most over-hyped team since, well, the last very slightly better than average over-hyped England team.

You guys kill me man..lol...As a patriotic England supporter who likes to gamble with his head i left the England game well alone. 

[betcatalog]

Fernando Santos's team goes straight into the ... deep, confronting the ever-recognizable Italy without starring Cristiano Ronaldo in her composition. The material is certainly in the hands of Fernando Santos, while the "squadra arazoura" on the other hand brought 1-1 against Poland for the premiere of the event. The two teams appear more aggressive than the recent past and are worth both teams
PORTUGAL vs ITALY @@ Both team to score, odds 2.05

The first match for Scotland in the Nations League and clearly would like to start with ... right its obligations to the event. In the match the power will dominate and the phases will be a few in front of the frames. Any team that manages to open the scoring will try to keep it up to the end, so the match can hardly escape the few goals
SCOTLAND vs ALBANIA @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.60

One of the good couples of the night is Sweden - Turkey, with Scandinavians coming into the battle of the Nations League today. The Turks lost from the last with 2-1 and even home and do not cease to have weaknesses, especially in the inhibiting part of their game. Sweden has a more team-based team and has the upper hand to win
SWEDEN vs TURKEY @@ SWEDEN, odds 2.10

[StevieDay1983]

Scotland vs Albania

Scotland welcome Albania to Hampden Park in Glasgow for this 7:45pm kick-off tonight in Group 1 of League C with the home side desperately in need of a win after a demoralising friendly defeat to Belgium a few days ago coupled with the away side having already won their opening game of the competition against Israel by a 1-0 score-line in Elbasan.

Alex McLeish was hardly an inspiring choice of manager for Scottish fans when he was re-appointed as national team head coach on 16th February this year. It's not exactly been positive so far with McLeish only winning 1 of his 5 matches in charge so far and his side only scoring one goal during that time too.

OK, so Scotland have faced tough opposition in Costa Rica, Peru, Mexico, and Belgium in those defeats but shouldn't the fans be expecting more from their national team? The 1-0 win over Hungary can only be seen as an expected result but I suppose because it came out in Budapest then it's a satisfactory win.

Interesting fact about Albania. They are now managed by former Italian international defender Christian Panucci. The He won 57 caps for Italy during his playing days but is still very inexperienced as a manager having been assistant manager for the Russia national team under Fabio Capello. He then had short-lived spells as head coach at Serie B side Livorno and their divisional rivals Ternana.

His results for Albania have not really shocked the world. Just 2 wins in his 7 games in charge have come against Turkey away and Israel at home. These were perhaps games they were not entirely confident they would win. However, 5 defeats with just 1 goal scored in those matches has left cause for concern. It should be noted most of those defeats were expected against the likes of Spain, Italy, Norway, and Ukraine. The 3-0 loss away to Kosovo was perhaps the one disappointing loss.

I've always had a soft spot for the Scottish team. After Wales, I always follow their results the closest. Love the atmosphere their fans create at their international games and I love the passion they play with. It's a dark time for Scottish football right now and I can't see it getting better any time soon.

Albania are going to provide tough opposition for Scotland but I think Scotland should be able to get something from this game. McLeish appears to still be working out what his best line-up is but he'll need to decide quickly. A defeat here would leave Albania in an excellent position to win their group. It would also leave McLeish under even more pressure. Is this a must-win for Scotland? Not quite. They certainly can't afford to lose it though. I can either see Scotland sneaking a narrow win or Albania sucker punching them as punishment for missed chances. @allyhibs, maybe you can give us a more well-informed opinion!

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.60 with BetVictor

Winning Margin @ 2.30 with Betway

[cluelessG]

Portugal v Italy

Portugal are a tough team to beat but they are without Ronaldo, so less likely to win. Italy are going through a tough period but they are still a quality side. Both teams recorded 3 draws is their last 5 matches. So I will go for the draw here - available at 3.1 with bet365. Small stake.

[artichoke]

1 hour ago, cluelessG said:

Portugal v Italy

Portugal are a tough team to beat but they are without Ronaldo, so less likely to win. Italy are going through a tough period but they are still a quality side. Both teams recorded 3 draws is their last 5 matches. So I will go for the draw here - available at 3.1 with bet365. Small stake.

I wouldn't take the fact that Ronaldo is missing as an important factor : in my opinion he hasn't been of an utmost importance during the WC. I haven't watched the game against Croatia but the consensus seems to be that Portugal have no problem to play without him. Portugal are at home and will want to show some to their fans + the players want to show that they aren't a one-man team (or so i've been told they said that). 

Though I'm still hesitating between Portugal to win and a DNB though, since Portugal had a few draws in low stakes games last years (against Mexico and Chile in the Confederations Cups, two teams that were better than Italy now i think). 

Good luck

[allyhibs]

8 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:

Scotland vs Albania

Scotland welcome Albania to Hampden Park in Glasgow for this 7:45pm kick-off tonight in Group 1 of League C with the home side desperately in need of a win after a demoralising friendly defeat to Belgium a few days ago coupled with the away side having already won their opening game of the competition against Israel by a 1-0 score-line in Elbasan.

Alex McLeish was hardly an inspiring choice of manager for Scottish fans when he was re-appointed as national team head coach on 16th February this year. It's not exactly been positive so far with McLeish only winning 1 of his 5 matches in charge so far and his side only scoring one goal during that time too.

OK, so Scotland have faced tough opposition in Costa Rica, Peru, Mexico, and Belgium in those defeats but shouldn't the fans be expecting more from their national team? The 1-0 win over Hungary can only be seen as an expected result but I suppose because it came out in Budapest then it's a satisfactory win.

Interesting fact about Albania. They are now managed by former Italian international defender Christian Panucci. The He won 57 caps for Italy during his playing days but is still very inexperienced as a manager having been assistant manager for the Russia national team under Fabio Capello. He then had short-lived spells as head coach at Serie B side Livorno and their divisional rivals Ternana.

His results for Albania have not really shocked the world. Just 2 wins in his 7 games in charge have come against Turkey away and Israel at home. These were perhaps games they were not entirely confident they would win. However, 5 defeats with just 1 goal scored in those matches has left cause for concern. It should be noted most of those defeats were expected against the likes of Spain, Italy, Norway, and Ukraine. The 3-0 loss away to Kosovo was perhaps the one disappointing loss.

I've always had a soft spot for the Scottish team. After Wales, I always follow their results the closest. Love the atmosphere their fans create at their international games and I love the passion they play with. It's a dark time for Scottish football right now and I can't see it getting better any time soon.

Albania are going to provide tough opposition for Scotland but I think Scotland should be able to get something from this game. McLeish appears to still be working out what his best line-up is but he'll need to decide quickly. A defeat here would leave Albania in an excellent position to win their group. It would also leave McLeish under even more pressure. Is this a must-win for Scotland? Not quite. They certainly can't afford to lose it though. I can either see Scotland sneaking a narrow win or Albania sucker punching them as punishment for missed chances. @allyhibs, maybe you can give us a more well-informed opinion!

Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.60 with BetVictor

Winning Margin @ 2.30 with Betway

Having just seen the team, 6.50 for the Albania win looks very generous.

McLeish is a clueless, doddering old fart who shouldn't be near Hampden as a media pundit, never mind as manager.

[betcatalog]

The most commercial pair of the evening is undoubtedly Spain - Croatia, with their "rookie rosa" coming from the winning 2-1 in England, while the Croats give their first game today to the National League. The hosts are definitely more full of rosters and a deep bench, unlike Croatia, who traveled with absences in Elche, where the game will be played, and clearly its mission is extremely difficult.
SPAIN vs CROATIA @@ SPAIN, odds 1.70

Very interesting and the couple of Bosnia with Austria and as you will know from the odds, it is a balanced pair. Bosnia already has three points in the group, with a double in Northern Ireland a few days ago with 2-1, while the Austrians are giving their first game today to the Nations League. The two teams seem capable of everything with regard to the point, but with the quality and experience they have from the center and ahead they can score
BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA vs AUSTRIA @@ Both team to score, odds 1.90

[artichoke]

Re : Portugal v Italy 
As expected Portugal absolutely dominated Italy on the technical side with nice build up and midfield game. Italy rarely managed to make 3 passes in a row. Though it doesn't show on the final score since Portugal seems to have trouble with finishing (the only point where the absence on Ronaldo can be noticed), at times it was quite funny (and frustrating) to see their forwards passing the ball like a hot potato at less than 15m of the goal and enough space to strike - as if they were afraid to...
On the positive side for Italy, they got some fast wingers, which have been dangerous once in a while but that was it. 

Re : Belgium vs Iceland
The odds dropped since Iceland got 6-0'd by Switzerland, which is reveling the level of Iceland, even though IIRC four of their starters were missing. Now Belgium is @ 1.29 at Pinnacle (but lower for us French folks...), which IMO still makes for a decent ROI for a bet that's as sure as they come. 
Belgium -1.5 AH @ 1.854 sounds also like a very reasonable bet. 
 

15 hours ago, betcatalog said:

The most commercial pair of the evening is undoubtedly Spain - Croatia, with their "rookie rosa" coming from the winning 2-1 in England, while the Croats give their first game today to the National League. The hosts are definitely more full of rosters and a deep bench, unlike Croatia, who traveled with absences in Elche, where the game will be played, and clearly its mission is extremely difficult.
SPAIN vs CROATIA @@ SPAIN, odds 1.70

I'm going to avoid this game, but maybe i'm underrating Spain. Spain is in search for a new identity, their style against England was very different, and for the better, with a lot more long balls and crossing. 
But the gap between Spain and England was narrower than i thought, and i can't really tell to which extent Spain was controlling the game and doing just enough to win. They haven't dominated that much in the midfield and it was at some point quite messy on both sides. 
IMO Croatia is stronger than England, and whereas there was value on Spa v Eng, i think Croatia here is being sold short (5.75), so no bet for me. It's going to be a fun game. 

Edited September 11, 2018 by artichoke

[cluelessG]

Re: Spain - Croatia

My small bet on this game is Both Teams To Score - available at 1.96 with pinnacle.

Spain are expected to score, since they are favourites to win and they should be in a good mood after winning in England. Form what I've read here, they are not dominating possession that much, so they should allow Croatia to play and create chances.

I have a lot of respect for Croatia, they had a great World Cup. Two big changes in their squad - Madzukic and Subasic have retired from international duty. I am betting that Perisic, Modric, Rakitic and the rest are eager to prove that Croatia are still a top team.

Spain score and allowed a goal against England. Croatia scored and conceded a goal against Portugal. So I am hoping for another fairly open game.

I might place a small bet on the draw as well.

[Pep004]

Iceland v Belgium

Posted on September 11, 2018 Footalyct

Betting suggestion: Belgium -1,5 @2,09 Pinnacle

Besides France, I think that Belgium has one of the “richest” national teams in Europe when it comes to depth in squads. Coach Martinez has an extremely good squad, with several very experienced key players and a bunch of young, enormous talents. They will use their preferred 3-4-3 formation with Meunier and Carrasco on flanks giving support to Mertens and Hazard. Truth is that every team would miss Kevin de Bruyne, who is injured at this moment, but they still look like a very dreadful team. Martinez has a huge joker in his hands with Batshuayi who seems to be in a very good form. Iceland on the other hand, well… it’s just my opinion, but I have feeling that they will struggle a bit from now on. They’ve never been as high as they are right now, and people seemed to be very used to that. In my opinion, it’s still a surprise and in a long run, they won’t be that high on FIFA’s table. They obviously have problems with attackers right now as they miss Gudmundsson and Finbogasson. Besides them, Hamren cannot count on midfielder Gunnarsson, so new coach isn’t really in an easy position as he’s missing three important players. A lot depends on Sigurdsson, but I think that except from free-kicks or some incredible shots from distance, they cannot seriously threaten this Belgium side.

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[artichoke]

Damn, i thought Spain was the better team but i certainly didn't expected a 6-0... For the first 15 min i thought i was right to avoid this game as Croatia could have took the lead, but then they completely disappeared and got teared apart by a very effective (6 goals for 7 shots on target) Spain. Admittedly Croatia defense was very weak. 

The odds for the next games aren't up yet but the following is IMO printing money : 
Belgium to finish first of their group @ 1.3 - winamax
Portugal to finish first of their group @ 1.5 
Which makes for a nice 1.95 double. You can even add France to finish first for a 2.7 treble. 

I'll probably place it right before the next round in a month.