April 9 - April 15

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Johanna Larsson (-3.5) to beat Ysaline Bonaventure at 1.81 with Pinnacle

I've tracked a few of Bonaventure's matches in live betting recently and it seems to me that she's not only playing poorly, but that she also doesn't have the fitness that's required. She fell away in the deciders against Guarachi, Kenin, and Hon, so chances are that she's going to struggle again given that the conditions in Bogota are bound to test her in that area. These possible fitness problems are also the main reason for me preferring the handicap over the straight win.

[four-leaf]

@CzechPunter what do you think about Emil Ruusuvuori? He's a pretty decent juniorplayer from Finland. He did well in Davis cup now but his talent doesn't look to impressive as he struggles to make it even to the challengers. He stands at his career high right now, no.587 but I think he might come strong in a few years. Maybe not the coming 3 years but perhaps when he's around 24 he'll be ranked top 100 if he keeps working hard.

Edit: I don't think Ruusuvuori is like Jarkko Nieminen.

Edited April 9, 2018 by four-leaf

[CzechPunter]

I have no idea, I haven't really seen him play yet. I know that he beat Mertens in Bangkok, a solid result, and I did notice that he played a tight match against Berankis in the Davis Cup, but that's about it. I think that match might've been streamed somewhere, but I saw none of it.

[four-leaf]

3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

I have no idea, I haven't really seen him play yet. I know that he beat Mertens in Bangkok, a solid result, and I did notice that he played a tight match against Berankis in the Davis Cup, but that's about it. I think that match might've been streamed somewhere, but I saw none of it.

I was at the Royal tennishall this friday to watch Sweden - Portugal live. Did go just as planned, in other words Gastao lost his match against Elias while Joao won his against Mikael. The tie also went as planned since Sweden won it because we won the doubles match. Anyway, Emil Ruusuvuori beat Laurynas Grigelis in the deciding rubber and he lost to him just a few weeks ago so that was a surprise. So based on his performance in DC he might get somewhere in the future. But just look at Casper Ruud who played well when he was 18, he's only going down right now although he did some expected weekend results in DC but he doesn't look like a future top 100 player.

[four-leaf]

Kirsten Flipkens to beat Carina Witthoeft at 2.37 with bet365

I have a feeling Kirsten is the better indoors player of these two and Carina has only one notable result so far this season and it's from Miami where she beat Julia Goerges. Other then that it's been first round losses all the way except in Doha where she beat Tatjana Maria in first round but she lost in second round to world no.1 Caro Woz.

[CzechPunter]

Nice! Isn't Lugano outdoors though?

[CzechPunter]

Goncalo Oliveira to beat Sumit Nagal at 3.13 with Pinnacle

It's high time for Oliveira to get rolling again now that we're back to clay. Nagal has some traveling to do and I think that he's a bit overrated after upsetting Granollers a couple of weeks ago. That loss was more about the Spaniard, so I'm not sure what makes Nagal such a massive fav here.

Mackenzie McDonald to beat Frances Tiafoe at 3.60 with BetVictor

McDonald is yet to play in Houston and that is a slight worry, but Tiafoe's record here reads 0-2 and his record against McDonald reads 1-3, so I'm willing to go for this punt on value terms.

Yoshihito Nishioka to beat Horacio Zeballos at 1.72 with Ladbrokes

Nishioka has a 3-0 lead over Zeballos from days in which Zeballos seemed to be stronger. Yes, this will be played on clay, but it's the famous Houston clay, so not sure this is incredibly important. What I really like, however, is how Nishioka played in the qualifiers. Norrie and Klahn aren't as strong as Zeballos, of course, but beating them while losing just seven games in total is to be admired imo. Nishioka just seems to be flying in the conditions.

Andreas Seppi to beat Radu Albot at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Seppi wasn't too bad in the Davis Cup and Albot will be a substantial drop from Pouille, especially since he also has a 2-0 record against him, 4-0 in terms of sets.

Mats Moraing to beat Santiago Giraldo at 2.00 with Ladbrokes

Giraldo has been dreadful on his comeback so far, losing against Pavic in his first match before bombing out against Monteiro in the weekend Davis Cup. Hard to say if he still has it or not, but, at 2.00, I'm going to go for Moraing, who has at least some fine wins in 2018.

Malek Jaziri to beat Marton Fucsovics at 3.15 with Unibet

The Marrakech conditions are so specific that I wouldn't be surprised if Fucsovics failed at his first attempt in them. He's better than Jaziri, but not as much as the odds suggest and Jaziri always tries a bit harder in Africa/Asia.

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Matteo Berretini at 2.80 with BetVictor

I guess that this is priced on form, but Basilashvili is the better player all things considered and he could use this tournament to spring back to life, just as he did in Lyon last year. The odds are just too high imo, but I wouldn't want to consider any of the handicaps here - if Basilashvili loses, it's probably going to be a really bad loss.

[four-leaf]

 

 

5 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Kirsten Flipkens to beat Carina Witthoeft at 2.37 with bet365

I have a feeling Kirsten is the better indoors player of these two and Carina has only one notable result so far this season and it's from Miami where she beat Julia Goerges. Other then that it's been first round losses all the way except in Doha where she beat Tatjana Maria in first round but she lost in second round to world no.1 Caro Woz.

 

4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Nice! Isn't Lugano outdoors though?

I thought Lugano was indoor hard, totally bad checkup from me. I closed the bet. No reason to have it open since there is no value in betting on Kirsten since she's not very good on clay imo. On clay Carina should win so now I understand why she's favourite.

[four-leaf]

2 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Goncalo Oliveira to beat Sumit Nagal at 3.13 with Pinnacle

It's high time for Oliveira to get rolling again now that we're back to clay. Nagal has some traveling to do and I think that he's a bit overrated after upsetting Granollers a couple of weeks ago. That loss was more about the Spaniard, so I'm not sure what makes Nagal such a massive fav here.

Mackenzie McDonald to beat Frances Tiafoe at 3.60 with BetVictor

McDonald is yet to play in Houston and that is a slight worry, but Tiafoe's record here reads 0-2 and his record against McDonald reads 1-3, so I'm willing to go for this punt on value terms.

Yoshihito Nishioka to beat Horacio Zeballos at 1.72 with Ladbrokes

Nishioka has a 3-0 lead over Zeballos from days in which Zeballos seemed to be stronger. Yes, this will be played on clay, but it's the famous Houston clay, so not sure this is incredibly important. What I really like, however, is how Nishioka played in the qualifiers. Norrie and Klahn aren't as strong as Zeballos, of course, but beating them while losing just seven games in total is to be admired imo. Nishioka just seems to be flying in the conditions.

Andreas Seppi to beat Radu Albot at 1.80 with Paddy Power

Seppi wasn't too bad in the Davis Cup and Albot will be a substantial drop from Pouille, especially since he also has a 2-0 record against him, 4-0 in terms of sets.

Mats Moraing to beat Santiago Giraldo at 2.00 with Ladbrokes

Giraldo has been dreadful on his comeback so far, losing against Pavic in his first match before bombing out against Monteiro in the weekend Davis Cup. Hard to say if he still has it or not, but, at 2.00, I'm going to go for Moraing, who has at least some fine wins in 2018.

Malek Jaziri to beat Marton Fucsovics at 3.15 with Unibet

The Marrakech conditions are so specific that I wouldn't be surprised if Fucsovics failed at his first attempt in them. He's better than Jaziri, but not as much as the odds suggest and Jaziri always tries a bit harder in Africa/Asia.

Nikoloz Basilashvili to beat Matteo Berretini at 2.80 with BetVictor

I guess that this is priced on form, but Basilashvili is the better player all things considered and he could use this tournament to spring back to life, just as he did in Lyon last year. The odds are just too high imo, but I wouldn't want to consider any of the handicaps here - if Basilashvili loses, it's probably going to be a really bad loss.

I'll be backing you at Malek Jaziri and Yoshi Nishioka.

Ediit: I'll add Goncalo Oliveira to.

Edited April 9, 2018 by four-leaf

[Torque]

Paire v Simon 

[four-leaf]

Frances Tiafoe/Mackenzie McDonald over 2.5 sets at 2.75 with bet365

My usual bet here. Not mutch more to add then what @CzechPunter has already said about it. There were 3 sets last time they met in Dallas this season. With both players records in Houston I can't imagine a straight sets win for either one so it could be another even 3 set battle between them. 

[Torque]

Sorely tempted by some sort of plus on Ahouda against Ramos. Young home player who scored a shock win at this tournament last year over Marcel Granollers, against Ramos who didn't exactly pull up any trees during the South American clay court swing and who might not be all that motivated in what is a minor tournament compared to the bigger clay court tournaments in Italy and Spain that follow in the next few weeks.

+7.5 games for Ahouda at 2.10 and Ahouda to win a set at 8.50 both at Betfair Sportsbook look worth chancing to me. I'd even consider a small stake on Ahouda to win if I could get at least 30 on the exchanges.

[four-leaf]

Mariana Duque-Mariño to beat Ana Bogdan at 2.37 with bet365

Mariana has everything to play for here, her ranking, her country, the surface. The surface could play a major factor. And they've also met once in Acapulco 2015 on hard and Mariana won 6-4 6-1 and hard is Anas best surface and still she lost to Mariana then. She also had a long week in Monterrey reaching the semis so she could be running out of steam in Bogota. Mariana is ranked 128 now, being on her favourite surface at home with a chance to pick up some mutch needed points she should not miss out on. She can beat Ana who hasn't played on clay since Bucharest last season in july. Mariana went out early in Monterrey to Danielle Collins and has already played two ITF events on clay this season so she should be well prepared for this.

[four-leaf]

Pablo Andujar (-1.5 sets) to beat Ilya Ivashka at 2.37 with bet365

What an opportunity to get this great price on a straight sets win for Pablo here. He's without a question in great form again and seems to have come back for real winning his first challenger title in years playing some great tennis. Ilya lost to Pedro Martinez in the qualies yesterday and who's he? Well nobody as good as Pablo at least and this should be a walk in the park for Pablo. Ilya got himself the lucky loser spot after Victor Troickis withdrawal and Pablo comes into the maindraw via protected ranking.

[phillythered]

Hi,

Do you have any advice on the Nicolas Kicker Vs Donald Young match at the ATP Houston 250 match this evening?

 

Thanks

[CzechPunter]

Somehow, I got this strange gut feeling about Oliveira now. I wouldn't normally cash out, but the odds have dropped so much that it's actually possible to do that with a profit, so I guess I can't refuse.

20pts Sumit Nagal to beat Goncalo Oliveira at 1.56 with Pinnacle

Nagal wins = +1.2pts Oliveira wins = +1.3pts

[CzechPunter]

Hi and welcome @phillythered! Normally, Kicker should be a decent favourite, but he might be a bit tired after the Davis Cup and Young can sometimes spring to life on home soil, so I'd say that the odds are about right. If anything, I'd be tempted to have a small bet on Young, but I'm not tempted enough.

[liquidglass]

11 hours ago, Torque said:

Sorely tempted by some sort of plus on Ahouda against Ramos. Young home player who scored a shock win at this tournament last year over Marcel Granollers, against Ramos who didn't exactly pull up any trees during the South American clay court swing and who might not be all that motivated in what is a minor tournament compared to the bigger clay court tournaments in Italy and Spain that follow in the next few weeks.

+7.5 games for Ahouda at 2.10 and Ahouda to win a set at 8.50 both at Betfair Sportsbook look worth chancing to me. I'd even consider a small stake on Ahouda to win if I could get at least 30 on the exchanges.

Well worth the risk in my opinion more from the fact that home players normally do very well in this event every year whether in quallys or main draw. Ramos opened at 1/300, then 1/1000, now 1/66. I will stay safe and go Ahouda total games over 4.5

[Sm0k3rZ]

first 4 matches in morocco.. all favs about to lose..heads up on what to expect

[ElPrincipito007]

Just hope Basilashvili can do the same then.

[Torque]

17 hours ago, Torque said:

Sorely tempted by some sort of plus on Ahouda against Ramos. Young home player who scored a shock win at this tournament last year over Marcel Granollers, against Ramos who didn't exactly pull up any trees during the South American clay court swing and who might not be all that motivated in what is a minor tournament compared to the bigger clay court tournaments in Italy and Spain that follow in the next few weeks.

+7.5 games for Ahouda at 2.10 and Ahouda to win a set at 8.50 both at Betfair Sportsbook look worth chancing to me. I'd even consider a small stake on Ahouda to win if I could get at least 30 on the exchanges.

Well that didn't work out. Ahouda was flattened. Apologies if anyone got involved on the strength of my post.

[CzechPunter]

To be fair, Ahouda wasn't exactly disastrous, Ramos just approached the match very professionally.

[Torque]

I must be a glutton for punishment as I'm finding myself drawn to another big underdog in Marrakech and it's Lamine Ouahab. The veteran Moroccan has no form to speak of having hardly played in the last couple of years, but he seems to have a penchant for upsetting the odds at this tournament. A quick look at his results show that he's beaten seeded players in at least two previous editions here - Haase, seeded 6th in 2012 and Garcia-Lopez, seeded 1st in 2015. If you're a numerologist then you'll have noticed the next number in that sequence is 2018 - is there an upset written in the numbers? He's drawn to face Kohlschreiber in the first round and on paper has very little chance, but the German has lost three on the spin and the last of those was the deciding rubber in the Davis Cup tie between Spain and Germany which he should have won. His confidence can't be all that great right now and as I've already mentioned there are bigger tournaments ahead that he might prefer to focus on and so Ouahab to win at 6.00, to win a set at 2.75 and +5.5 games at 1.83 - all with Betfair Sportsbook - look worth a try.

 

[erny86]

On 9/4/2018 at 6:36 PM, CzechPunter said:

Malek Jaziri to beat Marton Fucsovics at 3.15 with Unibet

The Marrakech conditions are so specific that I wouldn't be surprised if Fucsovics failed at his first attempt in them. He's better than Jaziri, but not as much as the odds suggest and Jaziri always tries a bit harder in Africa/Asia.

 

M8 i like that! bet on Malek 2.95, and thanks for Basi vs Berrettini!

[ElPrincipito007]

Zhao @2,625 (Marathon)

 

3 weeks ago she won with easy against Sorribes Tormo. Okay, it was not the same underground, but also Zhao knows how to play on clay. I expected much lower odds for Zhao here.

[CzechPunter]

I must admit that I do like Ouahab as a player, but he's not exactly athletic these days.

 

[Torque]

No he isn't - I'd noticed that. But you don't need to be physically fit to beat Kohlschreiber - you don't even need to beat Kohlschreiber yourself if you know what I mean 

[Torque]

13 hours ago, Torque said:

I must be a glutton for punishment as I'm finding myself drawn to another big underdog in Marrakech and it's Lamine Ouahab. The veteran Moroccan has no form to speak of having hardly played in the last couple of years, but he seems to have a penchant for upsetting the odds at this tournament. A quick look at his results show that he's beaten seeded players in at least two previous editions here - Haase, seeded 6th in 2012 and Garcia-Lopez, seeded 1st in 2015. If you're a numerologist then you'll have noticed the next number in that sequence is 2018 - is there an upset written in the numbers? He's drawn to face Kohlschreiber in the first round and on paper has very little chance, but the German has lost three on the spin and the last of those was the deciding rubber in the Davis Cup tie between Spain and Germany which he should have won. His confidence can't be all that great right now and as I've already mentioned there are bigger tournaments ahead that he might prefer to focus on and so Ouahab to win at 6.00, to win a set at 2.75 and +5.5 games at 1.83 - all with Betfair Sportsbook - look worth a try.

 

Clean sweep. Thought it would be just the set and games bets that landed, but Kohlschreiber failed to serve out the match then lost the final set tie-break. Thanks Philipp 

Edited April 11, 2018 by Torque

[erny86]

5 hours ago, erny86 said:

M8 i like that! bet on Malek 2.95, and thanks for Basi vs Berrettini!

Thanks CzechPunter, you are so incredible!!!