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i would actually be cautious about bondarenko..in the final, she was 4-1..with 2 bp to go 5-1.. from there she lost 6-4 6-2..against errani..i saw the match and bonda was horrendous..lapko can trouble her and bonda would still be emotionally drained from her final loss. it takes something special to lose against errani with all her serving problems

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Errani played very strong in the final. Bondarenko didn't have chances, even if she was up 5:1, and as I remember it wasn't two BP, but 6 in the sixth game of the first set. I was for Bondarenko in this match :(

Kratzer - Kozlova 3.5 Bet365

Just a week ago Kozlova was badly injured during her match with Rodionova. She couldn't finish it. I am pretty sure she missed few days of training. Kateryna lost in the first round of Q in the last two seasons at IW so she will not have points to defend. Kratzer is capable to stun big names. She made that last year. During 2018 she played close matches with Hsieh and Wickmayer, but lost them. I can't see odds to be more than 3 for Kratzer, who will play her very first IW.

Xia - Wu 5.42 Pinnacle

Xia already stunned three favorites. He gave a total of 6 BP chances to his oponents. His serve is solide and he is capable to stun Di Wu, who didn't look great so far during the season. Still Di Wu is a favorite (H2H 1:0 for Wu), but the odds aren't right. Maybe they mustbe close to 4.00 for Xia.

 

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Lisicki - Kenin 2.4 Pinnacle

 

Sabine looked reborn in Taipe. She has enough time to rest after her last time and to prepare for Q. Kenin is close to Top 100, but still is not among those girls. Kenin was beaten by Loeb and Wickmeyer recently, who are on Lisicki's level. In 2015 Sabine reached the semifinal. This is great chance for her to make a nice comeback and to win some points for rankings.

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Oliveira - Mahut 5.82 Pinnacle

 

Oliveira is a clay court player, who decided this year to play mostly on hard/indoor. He beat Vanni and Hanfman this year and took a set of Bublic. Mahut is different animal, but he is now 36. He's got some phisical problems in Marseiile. He played three tournaments last month with matches on singles and doubles. All of them on indoor. This season on outdoor hard he lost from Popirin and Petrovic, who are on Oliveira level. I can't see how the odds could be more than 4.50. Also Mahut was quoted in L'Équip to say that he had pain everywhere. "I'm going to pay the most attention to is my knee because he's the one who stopped me for a long time. The hip and the back are more pains of fatigue, of chaining. As soon as it's over here, I'll rest. " 

 

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Kratzer - Vickery 4.09 Pinnacle

The odds are too big to be missed. Both overcame players, who seems to have problems with injuries. Vickery's season is not so nice for her. She has her ups and downs. I see that match pretty close and the fair odds for Kratzer must be around 3. She is a player, who used to have a nice run in a tournament when she starts strong.

Giron - Stakhovski 2.82

Giron beat three opponents at IW challenger and was close to eliminate Pospisil, who is better player than Strakhovski. Sergey is 0:3 on hard this season. He can't be such a favorite against typycal hard court specialist. The real odds are around 2.5 max

Song - Daniel 7.7 Pinnacle

 

Daniel has only two wins this season vs 8 losses. The first is against unranked player, the second is against number 1500 in the world. Song showed some promissing tennis for his level at IW challenger's Q. It's a pretty long shot, but if Daniel don't have a day, we could see a big surprise. The real odds should be around 6.

Korda - Smyczek 6.69

 

I bet on Korda's previous match and he couldn't play his game in the first game against Gombos, but in the second he was far more competative. Smyczek is with two back-to-back losses. He is a player, who could always sunk down. This is bigger stage for Corda and if the game of AO junior champ is sharp since the start of the match, he could make a surpsise.


 

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Lara - Hemery

 

Lara - Hemery 2.16

Lara played nice tennis for his level during IW challenger. He missed some chances to beat Sela. The guy is pretty strong on hard this year. Hemery is very risky player. He need to be in shape as it wasn't the case during IW challenger. In his match against Pospisil he made 12 DF. 

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Nishimoto - Brescia 8 5dimes/Bet365

Nishimoto made a big rise in ranks and in her game starting from the same tournament last year. She reached the 1/4-finals, her biggest career achievement. In the first round she stunned a player with the same odds. Brescia is 1/3 this season. She finished 2017 with two injuries and still isn' capable to show her best. I expect her to drop some places in the ranks in the near future. She also preferes clay than hard (have some nice results on hard also), but my bet is here mainly on her lack of goodd results/form in 2018

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King - Sela 3.9 Maratonbet

King was very strong on his serve game against Klizhan. He showed strong mentality and when Klizhan was capable to make a rebrak in the third set, he was back from 0:40. Sela's form is very questionable. I watched him against Lara and he throws his racquet all around. Sela is a guy that is capable to destroy the oponent if he has a day, as he did in the first round. In the last two years Sela is loosing in his very first match here.

Lara - Mahut 4.55 Pinnacle

Mahut beat Oliveira, but the stats and many breaks didn't speak well for the French veteran. Now he will meet Lara, who is better player on hard then Oliveira. Still Mahut is the favorit, but as I post yesterday, Mahut said that he has problems with his knee during the previous tournament.

Babos - Bencic 2.23

The odds went up for Babos in Pinnacle, but I think she's got better arguments. Timea won in Taipei and was very game against top players. Bencic is with four losses in a row. She has problems to find her rythme and Babos is a player, who could seek and destroy you in a very short time with her serve.


Liu - Kenin 3.34 Pinnacle

Liu was the only player that managed to take a set from Errani last week at IW challenger. She is a former ¹1 among juniors and won Wimblendon last year. She is well rested, while Kenin already played two matches in the qualifications. Pretty close match it should be with a decend price for Liu.

Flipkens - Makarova 3.54 Pinnacle

Flipkens had some shoulder problems at the beginning of the season. She looked pretty well during Budapest indoor tournament, where she reached the finals in doubles. Flipkens started last year with a surprise 1st round win over Bellis. At the same time Makarova was beaten in the first round, so she will not have points to defend. The correct odds here should be 2.50-2.75 for Flipkens. 

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I am sort of away this week and doing any sort of research really is a pain, so I don't want to overdo things. At first glance, nothing really stands out honestly, it's a tight card. I am going to go for this one in the men's, however.

Daniil Medvedev to beat Steve Johnson at 2.00 with Paddy Power

Honestly, I think Medvedev should be the favourite here. He's still young and this fact comes with some poor matches here and there, but he hasn't done much wrong so far in this season apart from losing against Matosevic in his first match of the year and the implosion against Gasquet. Johnson, on the other hand, has only beaten struggling or truly average players. The H2H also stands at 2-0 in Medvedev's favour and one of those wins came in the USA, so a repeat could easily be on the cards. I'd take everything above 1.80.

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3pts R.Albot to beat S.Tsitsipas 2/1 Bet365
Going to take a punt on Albot purely as I don't think he should be such an underdog here. Never played eachother before and of similar ranking, Radu hasn't had the best start to 2018 (W2 L7) however, after going out of Auckland with match points against Vesely and having a poor Aus Open, he has beaten Isner and only lost to top 20 players. Tsitsipas 2018 (W4 L6)  also not had the best start to 2018. Also had decent results in beating Kohlschreiber, but can throw in the odd bad performance when he is the favourite. 

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5pts L.Lacko to beat D.Lajovic 11/10 Betfair
2pts L.Lacko to win 2-0 2/1 bet365

Why is Lacko the underdog for this? Lacko for me is a better hard court player then Lajovic and leads the h2h when he won in straight sets back in 2014 (on the hard) Lajovic has won 1 game in 2018 out of 6 and that was on the clay. I will take a small punt on the straight sets win again too.

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3 hours ago, WinningTipster said:

1 PICK FOR WTA INDIAN WELLS MATCH TODAY:

TSURENKO-4 GAMES OVER ARRUABARRENA @ 1.6 pinnacle
Tsurenko winning a tournament last week, and she was in great form there. The head-to-head shows 3 easy wins for Tsurenko.

 

Tsurenko just winning a tournament certainly calls for a bit of caution to be applied. Backing Tsurenko -4 after her exertions of the week before cannot be too wise. There is even the strong possibility that Arruabarena will win a set or the entire match. 8/10

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Sakkari vs Barty

Full Event Home +5.00 (AH) @ 1.869

5/10

Ash haven't played after AO just 2 Fed Cup games. She was not in the same level when she was at the end of 2017 in AO. And this schedule won't help her form i guess. On the other hand Sakkari was playing great in the last stages in 2017 too but not as good as Barty ofc. Sakkari started season pretty bad also. Now she played a good match here, she has more matches in her belt, knows courts better because played a match on it and finding her form again. Also Indian Wells is one of the slowest hard courts which won't suit serve and volley game of Barty's imo. So i expect a good match from Sakkari.

Edited by gg-77
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Serena Williams-Kiki Bertens

Bertens +5.0 games (AH) 2/10

Well its always hard for going against the GOAT but she is nowhere near her levels yet. She is slower and i think less powerful atm. She will be better and better and might win a Grand Slam this year. But I don't think that she can ease past Kiki right now. Kiki played 2 game against Serena in the biggest stages (french open and us open) and she almost get a set each one and was very competitve. Right now Kiki also is not in form but surely she can challenge 'this' Serena here. These slower hard courts is ok for Kiki too because she prefers slower ones. I think we will see a good match here. 

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Fernando Verdasco to beat Taylor Fritz at 1.67 with Paddy Power

This should be the end of Taylor Fritz in Indian Wells. First opponent that can actually return his serve and one that's also playing well at the moment, having lost only against Diego Schwartzman recently. There might be a TB or two here, but I fancy Verdasco to come out on top eventually.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich (+6) to beat Caroline Wozniacki at 1.85 with Pinnacle

Sasnovich obviously isn't getting as much attention as Wozniacki, but she's made a lot of progress over the last year or so and I think that she already has what it takes to trouble the big names in conditions that allow her to set up the big shots. I'm not sure that she has the mentality to win a match like this, but she certainly has enough power to hit through Wozniacki, so I'm happy with the +6 handicap. The +5.5 one is playable as well, but I'm happy to pay the premium for the additional safety in this case.

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I didn't watch Indian Wells in the first days, but I do have to say, what a weekend and what a crazy tournament it's been so far. Pure madness, actually. I reckon that most of the results can be explained in a vacuum, but they make for a striking image together. Not sure what it is, the conditions certainly don't look all that unusual to me, but perhaps I'm missing something. Djokovic losing early isn't shocking, but against Daniel, heh, he should talk to Wawrinka about such matches :loon. Probably the biggest upsets for me were Vandeweghe and Kvitova folding so tamely.

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