Nigwilliam Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 Newm.425 Kryptos 8/1. £10 ew. bet365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 21 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: If it wins you make money. One of the safest strategies out there is to back horses that are very short odds. If you had backed all horses this year at odds of 8/13 or less then you would have had 447 winners from 633 runners and a profit of 3%. Longest winning run would have been 13, longest losing run 6. If you had restricted it to odds of 1/4 or less you would have had 109 winners from 120 runners and a profit of 11%. Longest winning run would have been 22 and the longest losing run 3. Excellent analysis as always. I will bear the above information in mind when I start laying the big 3's odds on shots next month. The reasoning behind this is that they are over bet and I hope that this will make it a profitable strategy ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: The reasoning behind this is that they are over bet and I hope that this will make it a profitable strategy Perhaps they are not overbet purely because of the fact a lot of punters will not back them because of the misconception that odds on represents poor value. I hope that this misconception continues as it means the rest of us can make money, gbettle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 Gowran Park 3.55 FOREST OF DREAMS 5/1 £20 win BSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: Perhaps they are not overbet purely because of the fact a lot of punters will not back them because of the misconception that odds on represents poor value. I hope that this misconception continues as it means the rest of us can make money, We shall see ? MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 4 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: 3.15 newmarket great bear 8/1 £10 e/w bet365 Lost -£10.60 September +£1148.60 Oct 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 7 hours ago, Valiant Thor said: AUG +62.14 SEPT +93.51 B365 4.12...GUBBAS 8.70...KOY KOY 7.18...THREE DONS One required for break even / small profit 4.12...GUBBAS...........LOST...7th 8.70...KOY KOY...........WON...20.62 7.18...THREE DONS...LOST...2nd STAKED...20...RETURNED...20.62...PROFIT...0.62PTS (better than a loss ?) AUG +62.14 SEPT +94.13 peanut peanut and MCLARKE 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 44 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: STAKED...20...RETURNED...20.62...PROFIT...0.62PTS (better than a loss ?) Agreed, I'd rather have a 1/20 winner than a 20/1 loser. Nigwilliam 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 7 hours ago, gbettle said: event_date Time Course Selection betfair position 2021-09-18 14:50 Newbury Al Aasy 1.71 2021-09-18 14:55 Navan Chemical Energy 1.37 2021-09-18 17:15 Catterick Old Flame 1.6 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 55.10 35.10 event_date Time Course Selection betfair position 2021-09-18 14:50 Newbury Al Aasy 1.71 4 2021-09-18 14:55 Navan Chemical Energy 1.37 1 2021-09-18 17:15 Catterick Old Flame 1.6 1 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 10.96 -9.04 Month bets outlay return profit 8 31 620 703.98 83.98 9 18 360 328.68 -31.32 The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigwilliam Posted September 18, 2021 Share Posted September 18, 2021 8 hours ago, Nigwilliam said: Newm.425 Kryptos 8/1. £10 ew. bet365. Lost. Sep +£100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 event_date Time Course Selection betfair position 2021-09-19 14:10 Plumpton Galata Bridge 1.41 2021-09-19 15:10 Plumpton Romanor 2.39 2021-09-19 16:30 Listowel Ballyoisin 2.20 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 95.72 75.72 The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 2.00 listowel Coulonces 20/1 £10 e/w bet365 The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 (edited) 22 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Perhaps they are not overbet purely because of the fact a lot of punters will not back them because of the misconception that odds on represents poor value. I hope that this misconception continues as it means the rest of us can make money, The same conclusion was derived by an actuary E.L Figgis in an audit for the Royal Commission on Gambling back in 1950,1965,1973 and published in their report in 1978 Quote Figgis’ evidence for 1950, 1965 and 1973, using starting prices, demonstrates that for the shortest odds examined – i.e. 0.4 to 1 (5 to 2 on) or less – the average pre-tax return varied from 97.2 per cent in 1950 to 108.1 per cent in 1965 and to 108.5 per cent in 1973. Calculations of the returns in 1975 and 1976, performed for the Royal Commission on Gambling, found rates of return of 112.1 per cent and 107 per cent, respectively. Similar findings were published by Henery in 1985 covering uk flat racing Also in the Ladbrokes Pocket Companion (1990) in a trial from 1985~1989 placing bets of odds under 1/2 or shorter yielded a positive return of 6.5% From at least 1950 to present day this has and does still exist, so It amazes me you still read the crap "you cant make money backing favs" bandied around by punters who cant see the wood for the trees or think they know better than the market. Like you say "it means the rest of us can make money" and long may it continue. Edited September 19, 2021 by Valiant Thor format MCLARKE, gbettle and peanut peanut 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 Just the 1 today , about the best of a bad bunch , still a bit of meat in the 2.88 with the odds boost IMO AUG +62.14 SEPT +94.13 20pts...MEWS HOUSE Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 18 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: The same conclusion was derived by an actuary E.L Figgis in an audit for the Royal Commission on Gambling back in 1950,1965,1973 and published in their report in 1978 Similar findings were published by Henery in 1985 covering uk flat racing Also in the Ladbrokes Pocket Companion (1990) in a trial from 1985~1989 placing bets of odds under 1/2 or shorter yielded a positive return of 6.5% From at least 1950 to present day this has and does still exist, so It amazes me you still read the crap "you cant make money backing favs" bandied around by punters who cant see the wood for the trees or think they know better than the market. Like you say "it means the rest of us can make money" and long may it continue. class 1 2-7 runners shows 111% but hardly any bets each year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 2.10 Plum Galata Bridge £20.00 LAY @ 1.38 = 19 points v 7.60 Liability If any one wants to believe statistics published by Ladbrokes then so be it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 25 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: Just the 1 today , about the best of a bad bunch , still a bit of meat in the 2.88 with the odds boost IMO I have analysed my bets over the last few years and on Sundays I have lost money. This is probably related to the lower quantity of racing on Sunday. As an example my £20 daily challenge today is 20/1. I may start to have a break on Sundays or restrict myself to just one bet. The Equaliser and Wildgarden 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 1 minute ago, Wildgarden said: class 1 2-7 runners shows 111% but hardly any bets each year The amount of bets is irrelevant its about return on investment, People are putting £1500 in ISA's for 12 month to make £15 pa if they're lucky When inflation is around 3% theyre basically investing to lose money and theyre told its a good deal because its tax free, so how does that work (and thats like one bet in relative terms). People who are serious about "betting" should look at it more of a business IMO, anyone can sell stuff for less than its worth and then go bust, others seek the value and make money the same as anything be it stocks , business , betting they're all just a numbers game. peanut peanut, The Equaliser and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: I have analysed my bets over the last few years and on Sundays I have lost money. This is probably related to the lower quantity of racing on Sunday. I may start to have a break on Sundays or restrict myself to just one bet. All my betting selections are automated to eradicate any emotion in the choice , so whether its Mon,Wed or Sun makes no difference (boring maybe but its how i like to do things, easier to quantify) MCLARKE and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigwilliam Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 Ham 220 Urban Violet 15/8 £12win Alpha Cru 11/4 £8win bet365. The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 45 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: If any one wants to believe statistics published by Ladbrokes then so be it So they alter the starting prices do they to suit there statistics 1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said: "it means the rest of us can make money" justified MCLARKE 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: People are putting £1500 in ISA's for 12 month to make £15 pa if they're lucky I agree, putting it in a bank you will lose money in real terms. A stocks and shares ISA is another matter, you can pick a world index tracker and probably make on average 5% + per annum without any knowledge of investing. Those with good knowledge can make 10% +. You obviously need the balls to withstand the big falls that are likely but if you start early and put regular amounts into the ISA then it will grow very nicely due to the impact of compound interest (described as the 8th wonder of the world by Albert Einstein). Wildgarden and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, MCLARKE said: You obviously need the balls to withstand the big falls that are likely And there in lies the caveat MCLARKE and The Equaliser 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 37 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: All my betting selections are automated to eradicate any emotion in the choice , so whether its Mon,Wed or Sun makes no difference (boring maybe but its how i like to do things, easier to quantify) Probably wise. I tend to have 3 serious bets a day out of the many selections my systems throw up. Whether I put £100 each on 3 selections or £2 each on 150 selections the ROI should be the same in the long term. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 10 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: So they alter the starting prices do they to suit there statistics justified May you make oodles of money with long odds on priced favourites. Anyway, I can't remember you ever putting any of them up as selections ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: Anyway, I can't remember you ever putting any of them up as selections ? I dont remember you making a profit on anything but Hey Ho The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 Hamilton 3.20 DANDY'S MAX 16/1 £20 win BSP The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Equaliser Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said: I dont remember you making a profit on anything but Hey Ho Well some of us benevolent guys have to keep the bookies afloat so that PL professionals like yourself can make some dosh ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 39 minutes ago, The Equaliser said: Well some of us benevolent guys have to keep the bookies afloat so that PL professionals like yourself can make some dosh There is a lot of truth in that. Most punters will lose and just a few will win, the bookies will make a profit whatever happens. gbettle and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 (edited) 4 hours ago, Valiant Thor said: Just the 1 today , about the best of a bad bunch , still a bit of meat in the 2.88 with the odds boost IMO AUG +62.14 SEPT +94.13 20pts...MEWS HOUSE LOST...2nd AUG +62.14 SEPT +74.13 Edited September 19, 2021 by Valiant Thor The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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