£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

[MCLARKE]

18 minutes ago, Offramp said:

Did anyone see the difference between Bet365 and Skybet at this race?

Sky usually offer rubbish odds and don't offer BOG on a lot of races.

[LEE-GRAYS]

2.45 listowel Walking the walk 7/1 £10 e/w bet365

Edited September 24, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS
Add price?

[The Equaliser]

25 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

Do you have any data to support this ?

No, but when you say things like "you won't go far wrong by backing odds on favourites this is clearly not true.

My Best of The Best selections bear testimony to the fact that one will lose money by backing odds on favourites.

That is not to say that you lose money by backing odds on favourites, you have a selection process that excludes other odds on false favourites. 

One has to be very careful imo about touting the benefits of backing odds on favourites without very careful consideration

For example there is one running today in the 5.00 at Listowel a Willie Mullins horse named Mt Leinster, currently being offered at a best price of 8/13.  I doubt very much that your selection process will have you lumping on this one ?

[MCLARKE]

 

11 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

No, but when you say things like "you won't go far wrong by backing odds on favourites this is clearly not true.

My Best of The Best selections bear testimony to the fact that one will lose money by backing odds on favourites.

 I posted this last Saturday.

"One of the safest strategies out there is to back horses that are very short odds. If you had backed all horses this year at odds of 8/13 or less then you would have had 447 winners from 633 runners and a profit of 3%. If you had restricted it to odds of 1/4 or less you would have had 109 winners from 120 runners and a profit of 11%."

So why do you claim my statement is clearly not true?

The small sample you have posted doesn't really prove anything I'm afraid.

[MCLARKE]

York 5.25

MOUNT MARCY 11/4

£20 win BSP

[The Equaliser]

28 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

 

 I posted this last Saturday.

"One of the safest strategies out there is to back horses that are very short odds. If you had backed all horses this year at odds of 8/13 or less then you would have had 447 winners from 633 runners and a profit of 3%. If you had restricted it to odds of 1/4 or less you would have had 109 winners from 120 runners and a profit of 11%."

So why do you claim my statement is clearly not true?

The small sample you have posted doesn't really prove anything I'm afraid.

Well, to make money in this game one has to be selective and that includes placing money on odds on favourites.

Will you put £300 to win on Mt Leinster today?

 

[Nigwilliam]

5 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Well, to make money in this game one has to be selective and that includes placing money on odds on favourites.

Will you put £300 to win on Mt Leinster today?

 

It would be good if this thread was limited to £20 challenge selections. Perhaps a new thread could be started for your discussion.  Just a thought!.

[MCLARKE]

The discussion was prompted by one of the £20 challenge selections.

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Nigwilliam said:

Will you put £300 to win on Mt Leinster today?

If it was a system selection I'd have no problem betting on it.

I'd rather put it on that than any of the 150/1 shots in the same race.

[The Equaliser]

31 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

If it was a system selection I'd have no problem betting on it.

I'd rather put it on that than any of the 150/1 shots in the same race.

Haha, not taking much of a chance are you.  Anyway I will be laying selected odds on shots from the 1st October.

And just so as not to offend the over read and stressed PL member @NigwilliamI will be posting these on the daily racing chat thread.

Banned from doing so on this thread by the illustrious @Valiant Thorwho threatened not to post up any more selections on this thread until I did so.  Despite me not posting up "lay" selections as promised he seems to have gone very quiet with no posts at all

 

[gbettle]

Mt Leinster is a back for me because not 1 tipster - https://www.racingpost.com/tipping/naps-table/ - has selected it. 

And yet the wisdom of the crowd have still made it a 1.61, 8/13 fav.

[gbettle]

1 hour ago, gbettle said:

Mt Leinster is a back for me because not 1 tipster - https://www.racingpost.com/tipping/naps-table/ - has selected it. 

And yet the wisdom of the crowd have still made it a 1.61, 8/13 fav.

2nd by 12 lengths: "Pulled hard, led, 3 lengths ahead before halfway, clear with one other after halfway, joined under 3f out, pushed along over 2f out, headed when ridden briefly towards far side under 2f out, soon no extra and eased, no match for winner (op 8/13)"

1st 15/8 Barbados: "Chased leader, disputing second after 3f, 3 lengths second before halfway, clear with one other after halfway, joined leader under 3f out, led going best towards near side under 2f out, went clear when ridden over 1f out, kept on strongly, easily (op 7/4)"

[LEE-GRAYS]

7 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

2.45 listowel Walking the walk 7/1 £10 e/w bet365

lost

-£70.60 sept

+£1088.60 oct 2020

[Nigwilliam]

23 hours ago, Nigwilliam said:

York 240  Tadleel  9/1 skybet  5pl.

£10  ew.

Lost. 9th.

[gbettle]

On 9/24/2021 at 7:42 AM, gbettle said:

 

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2021-09-24	13:00	Haydock	Lockerbie	1.66
2021-09-24	13:15	Newmarket	Al Jaddaf	1.49
2021-09-24	17:35	Listowel	Pink In The Park	1.85
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	64.38	44.38

 

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2021-09-24	13:00	Haydock	Lockerbie	1.66	4
2021-09-24	13:15	Newmarket	Al Jaddaf	1.49	2
2021-09-24	17:35	Listowel	Pink In The Park	1.85	1
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	0.00	-20.00

 

Month	bets	outlay	return	profit
8	31	620	703.98	83.98
9	24	480	464.92	-15.08

[gbettle]

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2021-09-25	14:45	Market Rasen	Caramelised	1.79
2021-09-25	16:20	Chester	Mujtaba	1.7
2021-09-25	16:25	Haydock	Pride Of Priory	1.59
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	67.15	47.15

[Nigwilliam]

Hayd 240 Lihou  20/1 £5 ew 4pl 

Newm 340 Royal Marine 25/1 £5 ew 8pl

skybet. 

[LEE-GRAYS]

3.40 newmarket Bell Rock 16/1 £2.50 e/w 

2.35 Chester Roundhay park 12/1 £5 e/w winner 16/1 bog

3.30 ripon James watt 9/1 £2.50 e/w

all bets with bet365

Edited September 25, 2021 by LEE-GRAYS

[Offramp]

8 places offering at Skybet on the 15:40 at Newmarket. 

Reverse Forecast 

CHICHESTER 7/1

LONG TRADITION 11/1

£10 reverse forecast is £20.

I want them to finish in the first 8.

[MCLARKE]

Curragh 1.25

GISELLES AUSIE 9/4

£20 win BSP

[LEE-GRAYS]

4 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

3.40 newmarket Bell Rock 16/1 £2.50 e/w 

2.35 Chester Roundhay park 12/1 £5 e/w winner 16/1 bog

3.30 ripon James watt 9/1 £2.50 e/w

all bets with bet365

+£86

+£16.60 sept

+£1174.60 oct 2020

[Nigwilliam]

9 hours ago, Nigwilliam said:

Hayd 240 Lihou  20/1 £5 ew 4pl 

Newm 340 Royal Marine 25/1 £5 ew 8pl

skybet. 

4th. Lihou.     Returns £25.

£+112

Edited September 25, 2021 by Nigwilliam
bank

[MCLARKE]

Curragh 2.30

SUNSHET SHORAZ 10/3

£20 win BSP

[Nigwilliam]

Ffos 450 Beryl Burton 18/1 skybet 5pl.

£10 ew.

[LEE-GRAYS]

3.55 Epsom Lardo 16/1 £10 e/w bet365

[gbettle]

23 hours ago, gbettle said:

 

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2021-09-25	14:45	Market Rasen	Caramelised	1.79
2021-09-25	16:20	Chester	Mujtaba	1.7
2021-09-25	16:25	Haydock	Pride Of Priory	1.59
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	67.15	47.15

 

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2021-09-25	14:45	Market Rasen	Caramelised	1.79	3
2021-09-25	16:20	Chester	Mujtaba	1.7	1
2021-09-25	16:25	Haydock	Pride Of Priory	1.59	1
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	13.52	-6.49

 

Month	bets	outlay	return	profit
8	31	620	703.98	83.98
9	25	500	478.44	-21.56

[Offramp]

16:15 Ffos Las

Melakaz

12/1 at bet365

£10 each way.

[gbettle]

event_date	time	course	selection	betfair	position
2021-09-26	15:00	Curragh	Ruling	1.66
2021-09-26	16:25	Epsom Downs	Danville	1.77
2021-09-26	17:50	Ffos Las	Chepchik	2.52
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	94.93	74.93

[Nigwilliam]

16 hours ago, Nigwilliam said:

Ffos 450 Beryl Burton 18/1 skybet 5pl.

£10 ew.

1st.      Returns. £236

Bank.  Sep  +£328

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, Nigwilliam said:

Ffos 450 Beryl Burton 18/1 skybet 5pl.

£10 ew.

Excellent tip @Nigwilliamwell done.