£20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

[Valiant Thor]

5 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

The two  +10% EV I had for today are now both NR's  so brought in a couple of reserves with a lower +expected value ( I dont normally back them unless I've estimated them to be in my goldilocks zone of  +10% > +25% ev )  but these are still IMO just over +5% ev mark, so see how they go.
AUG  +62.14
SEPT +75.22

10pts...FAUVETTE
10pts...ZIGGY
 

10pts...FAUVETTE...WON...30
10pts...ZIGGY..........LOST....2nd
STAKED...20...RETURNED...30...PROFIT...10
AUG  +62.14
SEPT +85.22

[Nigwilliam]

On 9/14/2021 at 12:38 PM, Nigwilliam said:

Red 320 Mutanaaseq 9/2  £10 win

Wol 450 Deftera Lad 16/1 £6 win

and I swore I'd not do this one again but,

Red 420 O'Reilly's Pass 20/1  £2ew.

bet365.

Lost.

[Nigwilliam]

Ayr 300 Kylie Rules 16/1 bet365

£10ew

[gbettle]

On 9/12/2021 at 6:17 PM, gbettle said:

 

event_date	Time	Course	Selection	betfair	position
2021-09-12	14:35	Chelmsford City	Mutafawwig	1.90	5
2021-09-12	14:45	Bath	Pretty Sweet	1.62	1
2021-09-12	16:05	Curragh	Point Lonsdale	1.70	2
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	0.00	-20.00

 

 

Month	bets	outlay	return	profit
8	31	620	703.98	83.98
9	12	240	150.48	-89.52

Nearly had it, by a nose 

event_date	Time	Course	Selection	betfair	position
2021-09-15	16:00	Kelso	Zafar	1.48	1
2021-09-15	16:10	Beverley	At A Pinch	1.23	2
2021-09-15	16:15	Sligo	Fancy Foundations	1.71	1
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	12.65	-7.35

 

Month	bets	outlay	return	profit
8	31	620	703.98	83.98
9	15	300	240.06	-59.94

[gbettle]

event_date	Time	Course	Selection	betfair	position
2021-09-16	13:25	Naas	Pirate Jenny	2.10
2021-09-16	14:00	Naas	Leinster House	1.90
2021-09-16	14:05	Yarmouth	Wajd	2.84
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	133.41	113.41

[Valiant Thor]

AUG  +62.14
SEPT +85.22
 
B365

WIN ONLY 5.75pts
PLACE ONLY 14.25
place needed for small profit

NB..3.75 was freely available by several books when first posted unfortunately all books are now around 3.5 or less, which I have no control over.
I calculated sp to be around 3.00 to 3.25 so still some meat left in the sandwich so to speak (if it wins).

Edited September 16, 2021 by Valiant Thor
Add NB

[LEE-GRAYS]

7.30 chelmsford raha 15/2 £10 e/w bet365

[Valiant Thor]

2 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

AUG  +62.14
SEPT +85.22
 
B365

WIN ONLY 5.75pts
PLACE ONLY 14.25
place needed for small profit

NB..3.75 was freely available by several books when first posted unfortunately all books are now around 3.5 or less, which I have no control over.
I calculated sp to be around 3.00 to 3.25 so still some meat left in the sandwich so to speak (if it wins).

Now 11/10
Its a runaway train

[MCLARKE]

Pontefract 4.35

ZOOM TIGER 9/4

£20 win BSP

[gbettle]

10 hours ago, gbettle said:

 

event_date	Time	Course	Selection	betfair	position
2021-09-16	13:25	Naas	Pirate Jenny	2.10
2021-09-16	14:00	Naas	Leinster House	1.90
2021-09-16	14:05	Yarmouth	Wajd	2.84
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	133.41	113.41

 

event_date	Time	Course	Selection	betfair	position
2021-09-16	13:25	Naas	Pirate Jenny	2.10	NR
2021-09-16	14:00	Naas	Leinster House	1.90	1
2021-09-16	14:05	Yarmouth	Wajd	2.84	1
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	77.66	57.66

 

Month	bets	outlay	return	profit
8	31	620	703.98	83.98
9	16	320	317.72	-2.28

[Nigwilliam]

18 hours ago, Nigwilliam said:

Ayr 300 Kylie Rules 16/1 bet365

£10ew

Lost    6th.               Sep. +£140.

[Valiant Thor]

11 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

AUG  +62.14
SEPT +85.22
 
B365

WIN ONLY 5.75pts
PLACE ONLY 14.25
place needed for small profit

NB..3.75 was freely available by several books when first posted unfortunately all books are now around 3.5 or less, which I have no control over.
I calculated sp to be around 3.00 to 3.25 so still some meat left in the sandwich so to speak (if it wins).

WIN ONLY 5.75pts...LOST...2nd
PLACE ONLY 14.25...WON...21.37
STAKED...20...RETURNED...21.37...PROFIT...1.37
AUG  +62.14
SEPT +86.59

 

Edited September 16, 2021 by Valiant Thor

[Nigwilliam]

Ayr 320 Musicality 18/1 bet365 

£10 ew.

[gbettle]

event_date	Time	Course	Selection	betfair	position
2021-09-17	13:45	Newbury	Silk Romance	1.52
2021-09-17	16:45	Newton Abbot	Eglantine Du Seuil	1.03
2021-09-17	16:55	Downpatrick	Top Bandit	1.39
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	36.43	16.43

[LEE-GRAYS]

21 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

7.30 chelmsford raha 15/2 £10 e/w bet365

lost 

+£29.60 sept

+£1188.60 oct 2020

[Valiant Thor]

Only 2 to chose from today and unfortunately both in same race.
Some don't like backing 2 in a race but I look at it as purely a math algorithm and a 34.6% roi IF SUCCESSFUL seems fine by me.
B365 prices correct @ time of posting

12.82pts...SHE'S A NOVELTY
7.18pts.....GINGER DU VAL

[LEE-GRAYS]

6.00 kempton crocus 9/1 £5 e/w

8.00 kempton shyjack 12/1 £5 e/w

bet365

[Valiant Thor]

5 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

Only 2 to chose from today and unfortunately both in same race.
Some don't like backing 2 in a race but I look at it as purely a math algorithm and a 34.6% roi IF SUCCESSFUL seems fine by me.
B365 prices correct @ time of posting

12.82pts...SHE'S A NOVELTY
7.18pts.....GINGER DU VAL

12.82pts...SHE'S A NOVELTY...LOST...2nd
7.18pts.....GINGER DU VAL......WON...26.92
STAKED...20...RETURNED...26.92...PROFIT...6.92
AUG  +62.14
SEPT +93.51
 

Edited September 17, 2021 by Valiant Thor
Update

[MCLARKE]

Kempton 4.50

HURRY UP HEDLEY 5/1

£20 win BSP

[Offramp]

Tomorrow at Navan. I mean Saturday 18/09/2021.

16:05, APPIAN WAY. 

20/1. £20 to win. 

 

[gbettle]

13 hours ago, gbettle said:

 

event_date	Time	Course	Selection	betfair	position
2021-09-17	13:45	Newbury	Silk Romance	1.52
2021-09-17	16:45	Newton Abbot	Eglantine Du Seuil	1.03
2021-09-17	16:55	Downpatrick	Top Bandit	1.39
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	36.43	16.43

 

WTF Eglantine Du Seuil?! 1/12 fav beaten - 3rd!!! - by a combined 48/1 runners ... punters sold down the river:

"Led, jumped right, 7 lengths ahead 14th, reduced lead when mistake 4 out, pushed along when jumped badly right 2 out, headed when blundered and jockey lost irons last, soon lost second and eased (tchd 1/7)"

event_date	Time	Course	Selection	betfair	position
2021-09-17	13:45	Newbury	Silk Romance	1.52	2
2021-09-17	16:45	Newton Abbot	Eglantine Du Seuil	1.03	3
2021-09-17	16:55	Downpatrick	Top Bandit	1.39	1
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	0.00	-20.00

 

Month	bets	outlay	return	profit
8	31	620	703.98	83.98
9	17	340	317.72	-22.28

[Nigwilliam]

4 hours ago, gbettle said:

 

WTF Eglantine Du Seuil?! 1/12 fav beaten - 3rd!!! - by a combined 48/1 runners ... punters sold down the river:

"Led, jumped right, 7 lengths ahead 14th, reduced lead when mistake 4 out, pushed along when jumped badly right 2 out, headed when blundered and jockey lost irons last, soon lost second and eased (tchd 1/7)"

event_date	Time	Course	Selection	betfair	position
2021-09-17	13:45	Newbury	Silk Romance	1.52	2
2021-09-17	16:45	Newton Abbot	Eglantine Du Seuil	1.03	3
2021-09-17	16:55	Downpatrick	Top Bandit	1.39	1
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	0.00	-20.00

 

 

Month	bets	outlay	return	profit
8	31	620	703.98	83.98
9	17	340	317.72	-22.28

WTF indeed!.      Horse must have a thing about 3m2f races.    Ran twice at that distance and fell the first time.

[LEE-GRAYS]

19 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said:

6.00 kempton crocus 9/1 £5 e/w

8.00 kempton shyjack 12/1 £5 e/w

bet365

Lost 

+£9.60 September 

+1168.60 Oct 2020

[The Equaliser]

9 hours ago, Nigwilliam said:

WTF indeed!.      Horse must have a thing about 3m2f races.    Ran twice at that distance and fell the first time.

Well nobody makes anyone put money on a horse at such cramped odds so I guess you have to accept the consequences of taking what is assumed to be a very small risk.  I was watching an old "jumpers and bumpers" video with John Francome in the spotlight the other day.  He said that although some trainers make it look  easy to get multiple winners in a day sometimes, but people just do not realise how difficult it is to get a horse to a race track and then get it to win.  Taking very short odds about any horse is not a sensible option imo unless one has very specialised knowledge and a strategy that is proven to be profitable over time.

[Valiant Thor]

AUG  +62.14
SEPT +93.51
B365

4.12...GUBBAS
8.70...KOY KOY
7.18...THREE DONS
One required for break even / small profit

[gbettle]

event_date	Time	Course	Selection	betfair	position
2021-09-18	14:50	Newbury	Al Aasy	1.71
2021-09-18	14:55	Navan	Chemical Energy	1.37
2021-09-18	17:15	Catterick	Old Flame	1.6
Bet	Total Outlay	Total Return	Total Profit
Trixie	20.00 (4 bets of 5.00)	55.10	35.10

[LEE-GRAYS]

3.15 newmarket great bear 8/1 £10 e/w bet365

[MCLARKE]

16 hours ago, gbettle said:

WTF Eglantine Du Seuil?! 1/12 fav beaten - 3rd!!! - by a combined 48/1 runners ... punters sold down the river:

At those odds you would expect it to lose 1 race out of 13 so not that big a surprise.

It is only the same as a horse winning at 12/1 and we don't express amazement when that happens.

It is very irritating though when you've backed it, @Alastairwon't be happy because it was his nap in his quest to win the most winners competition.

[Alastair]

3 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

At those odds you would expect it to lose 1 race out of 13 so not that big a surprise.

It is only the same as a horse winning at 12/1 and we don't express amazement when that happens.

It is very irritating though when you've backed it, @Alastairwon't be happy because it was his nap in his quest to win the most winners competition.

I think I've had a 1/25 loser in the past in the competition.........

[MCLARKE]

3 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Well nobody makes anyone put money on a horse at such cramped odds

If it wins you make money. One of the safest strategies out there is to back horses that are very short odds.

If you had backed all horses this year at odds of 8/13 or less then you would have had 447 winners from 633 runners and a profit of 3%. Longest winning run would have been 13, longest losing run 6.

If you had restricted it to odds of 1/4 or less you would have had 109 winners from 120 runners and a profit of 11%. Longest winning run would have been 22 and the longest losing run 3.