Australian Open 2018

[CzechPunter]

Wow, is that with a local bookie? Bet365 are offering just 1.30 on there being a tiebreak in Shapo-Tsonga! Cracking price if you've got that!

[four-leaf]

Mackie McDonald to beat (+8.5) Grigor Dimitrov at 2.25 with Paddypower

Czech how many games do you think Grigor Dimitrov will lose to Mackie McDonald? Paddypower offers 2.87 on Grigor -10.5 games alternative handicap. I have considered placing a bet on this alternative handicap. Mackie is nothing special and have very limited experience but he have played quite well so far, he did good by beating Elias Ymer. Maybe I should do the reverse type of bet by placing a bet on Mackie +8.5 games at 2.25? Can he cover the 8.5 handicap? Grigor -10.5 feels like a bit to mutch and even -8.5 feels like to mutch.

Edit: I think +8.5 games on Mackie seems as a good bet since Grigor never has been an excellency at covering large handicaps and he's acctually never covered -8.5 games in an Aussie open second round match. Even last season he only won by 7 games in first round over aussie Chris O'connell who then was ranked 231 and currently registers at 412 with career high 219 (6 february 2017). I think Grigor is getting a little overestimated because he is ranked no.3 now.

Edited January 16, 2018 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

Acca: Magdalena Rybarikova to beat Kirsten Flipkens, Mackie McDonald +8.5 games, Ryan Harrison to beat Pablo Cuevas, Yuitchi Sugita to beat Ivo Karlovic, Denis Shapovalov to beat Jo-W Tsonga.

Maggie is a reasonal favourite and should have to mutch for Flippers, Mackie might win enough games to cover, Ryan should have to mutch for Pablo, old Ivo wins max one match which he's done now and should be out, Denis looks good to beat J-W

Total odds: 20.26 at Paddypower

[CzechPunter]

The problem is that McDonald doesn't have a reliable serve, so he'll have to win nearly all the points the hard way. He's a better HC player than Novak and he's got an incredibly good attitude, but he's got exactly zero experience and I therefore wouldn't rule out a 6-1/6-0 set. Kinda looks like 50/50 to me whether it's going to be a complete rout or not, I'm slightly leaning to Dimitrov crushing Mackie, but the odds you have are well above evens, so they look fine from where I'm sitting. I have zero trust in McDonald at this level right now, however.

[four-leaf]

Carla Suárez Navarro to beat Timea Babos at 1.83 with Paddypower

Carla has a nice 3-0 record in this matchup beating Timea at all 3 of the different surfaces. I don't see Timeas last win as something to put to mutch attention at. She probably didn't do mutch except playing a solid enough match and let Coco do the rest with hitting wild forehands and serving awful since I can't think of any other way the match went because I don't see Timea outhitting Coco. The way I see it Timea without some help is otherwise not good enough to outclass a top 10 opponent. Carla can win this match by being solid from the baseline which is exactly what she built her game on the last few years. Even if Carla beat Timea 3 times when she was a top 10-20 player I think she can do it again.

Anett Kontaveit to beat (-4.5) Mona Barthel at 2.10 with Paddypower

Sometimes Paddy can offer way to big prices on some handicaps like this one. Bet365 is just at 1.90 on the same handicap. Mona has opened the season with back-to-back loses in straight sets by being outclassed twice by Varvara Lepchenko in Auckland and Hobart, and Mona is more of a clay specialist since all her 4 titles except Hobart 2012 have come on slow surfaces so I doubt the courts in Melbourne suits her game. If Kontaveit plays to her normal standard she can win this with a few games to spare. Anyway the 2.10 offered by Paddy is what makes me consider this. No special bet unless I get over evens which I have.

[four-leaf]

Olivia Rogowska to beat Marta Kostyuk at 2.50 livebet with bet365 

Watching Marta Kostyuk play right now. She's a great ballstriker. Not mutch value in backing her to win before the match. Should have backed her before her last match against Shuai Peng but I didn't see that coming. Knowing more about her now. She's still 15 and turns 16 this summer. Ranked as junior no.2 and WTA ranking 521 with career high 491 last season and she's already won an ITF title beating 5 top 400 players in straight sets. This junior girl is coming strong, she'll be someone to watch out for in the future if she continue developing like this. She's going skyhigh in the rankings compared to american Whitney Osuigwe who is junior no.1 but still outside the WTA 1000 rankings.

She's just beaten Shuai Peng in straight sets but she may come as a bit to heavy favourite in this match.

[four-leaf]

Marta Kostyuk, how good is this 15 year old? She's although quite lucky to have come through in straight sets. She's even supported by Ivan Ljubicic and Fed. To get to third round at 15 years old is as good as Martina Hingis was at 15 years old as she was the last 15 year old to reach third round. But she'll be out next round most likely since it's gonna be Elina Svitolina or Katerina Siniakova. But credit to her for beating Shuai Peng and winning three matches in 3 sets in the qualies. Very strong.

[CzechPunter]

Bencic bombing out ffs . Worth noting that Kostyuk didn't really have to do all that much in the main draw, as Peng could barely move and Rogowska is as average as it gets. Massive results on paper, but let's not overrate them.

[vikki37]

11 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Bencic bombing out ffs . Worth noting that Kostyuk didn't really have to do all that much in the main draw, as Peng could barely move and Rogowska is as average as it gets. Massive results on paper, but let's not overrate them.

Fighting back in the second set now.

[CzechPunter]

Unless Kumkum starts to make errors, this will be over in two.

[Simeon Borisof]

 I am watching Flipkens-Rybarikova.Rybarikova won the 1st set but Flipkens was fired up and raised to the occasion to win 6-0 in the 2nd which crushed her and lost 6-0 in the decider....

[CzechPunter]

Now watch her come back from 0-5 :P.

[Simeon Borisof]

ok,this is too much even for this season-Shapovalov was leading 5;2 in the final set only to throw all away and lose next 5 games

[ElPrincipito007]

Can someone explain me why Medvedev is such an underdog against Chung. I backed him yesterday @2,66 and now odds are even higher.

[CzechPunter]

It's probably just normal market movement. No reason to be stressed out imo.

[LePapo]

Damn what a choke from Shapo even worse than the one from fett. He had held his serve EASILY during the whole match, had just been broken once, 11 straight service hold then time to serve it out and he fails and the rest was history. Overall, Shapo played way better than Tsonga. The frenchman needs a massive improvement for the next round if he wants to stay in the tournament. Edmund and Cilic too solid today. One of Edmund Basilashvili Karlovic and Seppi will play the QF. That means Kyrgios or Dimitrov will have a decent chance to play the SF. Starting to believe this can be Kyrgios opportunity (no jinx)

[Simeon Borisof]

I will be on over 29.5 games @ 1.9 in the game between Struff and Federer tomorrow.Struff was serving nice in the last round and i for one,think that we are bound to see at least one tie break here.Struff is talented enough to take a set off Roger and given the surprises we've seen so far i am more than happy to giv this bet a go @ odds that generous.Federer to win but not in straightforward fashion.

over 29.5 games @ 1.90

over 3.5 sets @ 3.50

both with bet365

[teddybear3011]

So, for today's match between Nadal and Mayer, I guess everyone expected for Nadal to win. He was doing a show, as ususal. and what a performance from Djokovic yesterday= he was the highlight of the competition, i would say.

[matrixman]

Hey Guys I see that Sasnovich is on fire right now.i still se here at 401.00 to win it and 51.00 to win the quarter. Some tought players left in that but maybe worth a small dabble

[CzechPunter]

Surprised by how well McDonald did, real class. Will have a few picks shortly.

[CzechPunter]

I might have some for the later sessions as well, but I'll have to think things through first.

Anastasija Sevastova (+4) to beat Maria Sharapova at 1.83 with Marathonbet

Maria Sharapova looked really average in the first round. She faced a slightly tricky opponent, but I expected her to get a crushing victory. That didn't happen and things aren't going to get any easier here. Sevastova played two good matches against Sharapova last year and she should give her a good test once again, especially if Sharapova doesn't up her game. This isn't the Sharapova of old - and that's why the prices and lines look a bit off to me.

M.Fucsovics/S.Querrey - Over 37 games at 1.84 with Marathonbet

This looks like a fairly low line to me given that both can serve really well and that they are going to play on an outside court, which means that the conditions should be very fast. Querrey had a good win over Lopez, but, after watching it from the mid-point, it was more about the Spaniard not being up to the task than about Querrey being super impressive. Fucsovics is a talented lad himself, big serve and all that jazz. Should be tight more often than not.

Beatriz Haddad Maia (+6.5) to beat Karolina Pliskova at 1.76 with Unibet

I saw the entire Pliskova-Cepede match and let me tell you, Pliskova was sluggish as hell. She's still a top 10 player and she can win this 6-2 6-2 if she's on song, of course, but Haddad Maia serves and moves well, so I can see her drawing plenty of errors from the Czech, who doesn't take these first round matches incredibly seriously all the time.

[four-leaf]

Evgeny Donskoy to beat Fabio Fognini at 3.75 bet365

Evgeny should have a clear advantage in this match. He's the better hardcourt player and Fabio haven't impressed on me so far this season. Conditions are quick in Melbourne, nothing that suits Fabio but Evgeny thrives. They've never met before so it's an all open contest and only rankings and reputation set the odds on this one. Should be an even match although but I predict the russian in 5.

[seanV]

My bets for today, I am expecting a few upsets due to the heat.

Vesely to beat Mannarino @ 3.20

Price is too big for Vesely who has beaten him in the past. I think the quick surface will suit him too.

Medvedev to beat Chung @ 2.97

Ridiculous price for the young gun. Chung does not deserve to be that short against fellow young gun

Donskoy to beat Fognini @ 3.48

Fognini to do Fognini things, heat should make this a lot closer than expected

Benneteau to win a set @ 2.3

Goffin has a knack of getting off to slow starts. I expect to lose concentration in the heat and give up a set. Benneteau took a set off him at the US open and beat him at Paris Masters last year

 

 

[CzechPunter]

Mad, mad results!

[CzechPunter]

1-2 for the bets above, Sevastova started to play way too late for it to matter and Pliskova was on song from shot one unfortunately.

I'll be throwing in one more bet for today, the rest are for tomorrow.

P.Gojowczyk/A.Zverev - Over 3.5 sets at 2.10 with 10Bet

Looking at the conditions and everything, Gojowczyk could well trouble Zverev even more than Fabbiano. He's got a reasonable record against big opposition in terms of taking sets, he's in a very good form, and Zverev had problems with heat previously. Given how average Zverev has been so far in 2018, I'm not sure why this is priced above evens, 1.80 looks more like it.

N.Basilashvili/K.Edmund - Over 3.5 sets at 1.83 with Paddy Power

Edmund has been quite impressive so far, but Basilashvili should be closer to Anderson than to Istomin honestly, so I expect a nice contest with each player taking at least a set. Basilashvili is a talented shotmaker that should be able to stay in rallies even if Edmund gets a nice forehand or two in, while it's also important to note that both players are known chokers, which should play into this bet. Should be a cracker anyways.

Alize Cornet (+3.5) to beat Elise Mertens at 1.92 with Marathonbet

I just have to go against Mertens this time around, as much as I'm happy that she's won me quite a few bets recently. Cornet was great against Goerges, first career win in that match-up, while Mertens had the edge against Gavrilova only due to the mental factor. That shouldn't come into play here, as Cornet is one of the more resilient players when in form, and she should be able to keep Mertens on the back foot without giving her a lot of options.

Andrey Rublev (+5) to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 1.92 with Marathonbet

Contrasting forms, unless Rublev fails in terms of fitness, he should be a good match for Dimitrov. The big shots have been falling in for him in every single match so far and Dimitrov doesn't really have what it takes to defend against them imo.

[Simeon Borisof]

Watching Benneteau,he has what it takes to win this GS in terms of quality but his fitness will fail him at some point..

[CzechPunter]

 

[CzechPunter]

Benneteau choking by the looks of things...for the umpteenth time. Edit: He didn't!

[CzechPunter]

I have high hopes for Kerber delivering on the quarter bet. She's certainly the favourite against Sharapova unless the latter plays really well - and, if she does get past that match, she'll be a big favourite against both Radwanska/Hsieh. Halep also has an outside chance I reckon for a nice pre-season outright win, the draw looks fairly open for her (Davis in the next round, for example). I'm a bit frustrated that I didn't go for Martic against Begu in the previous round, I was looking at that match long and hard and it would've won, but okay. 

From what I've seen today, I don't trust Djokovic to beat Nadal/Federer if it comes to that, he's still too rusty. Honestly, Monfils could've beaten him in cooler conditions, but he was cooked in the middle of the second set. The interesting bit is that Djokovic actually requested a day match instead of a night one, a genius move by him (but then Djokovic denied it, so who knows lol). Goffin losing was a massive surprise, I was fully expecting Benneteau to throw it away after not serving it out with some double faults, but the Belgian choked right back in the tie-break. Well done by the Frenchman!

Also looking forward to Kostyuk-Svitolina. On one hand, Kostyuk is completely inexperienced at this level. On the other hand, she is also completely inexperienced at this level ;).

[CzechPunter]

Good call on Struff btw @Simeon Borisof!