The Little Nuggets Thread

[BillyHills]

Ok guys a new idea for a thread in our quest to beat the bookies;

The concept is for members to post any little snippet of information that they think would be worth sharing with the rest of us.

It can be either stat based, something like a particular strike rate a trainer has at a certain track, record of fav's or even the longest traveller on any particular day. Or even just a popular trend for that days racing.

It can also be just pure information based, you may have heard a whisper in the pub last night or there is a tip flying about from the local stable. 

(Normal opinion based selections still belong in the daily threads)

 

Doesn't matter how detailed or brief the post, any contribution is welcome.

Remember, You have to risk losing to back a winner! We cant win all of the time.

 

Hopefully you will all contribute in some small way along the road.

[chris34]

Great idea!

6.40 Chelmsford 

Cant help but be drawn to S Donohoe's Star Links, transferred back to that yard in Ireland. Will be his first ever runner at Chelmsford and long way to go for a selling handicap!

[BillyHills]

Good spot Chris

[Bubbaballsb]

Chris, looking at placed bets on the exchange, 'Fast On' has been backed heavy in ireland for this race. 

Not putting you off it though mate, Star Links could hose up in this but just to let you know. 

Go well

[BillyHills]

Royale Knight 4.10 Sedgefield

11/4 Paddy Power

Has won this race for the last 2 years, both times on his second start of the season after running over hurdles the time before.

He ran at Hexham 2 weeks ago over hurdles on his first run since April.

___________________________________

Trainer Malcolm Jefferson has had 7 winners and 7 seconds from just 17 runners during October.

He has 2 runners at Sedgefield on Thursday

3.35 Sun Cloud 5/1 Coral

5.10 Ethelwyn 7/1 Bet365

[Bubbaballsb]

Kalifourchon 3:35 Sedgefield. 

Not like Pipe to take a horse to Sedge for this sort of race, horse loves the ground and stays all day. I put this in my Nag Me for next time out. Huge price imo. 

Tommy Scu in form. 

[Jimmy2shoes]

Mr Cumani sends out just the one runner destination Lingfield Park

Listed race with good wages up for grabs and his 4yr old can get involved, She won last time out at Doncaster over 1m 4f and looked to be doing all her best work at the business end, today's slightly longer trip looks right up her street and this looks a very handpicked race from shrewd Luca 

His last 4 from the yard have all run well 1-3-3-1 so his animals appear race ripe.

16:20 Lingfield Park - Bess of Hardwick

[Bubbaballsb]

21 hours ago, Bubbaballsb said:

Chris, looking at placed bets on the exchange, 'Fast On' has been backed heavy in ireland for this race. 

Not putting you off it though mate, Star Links could hose up in this but just to let you know. 

Go well

Looks like they were right, alot to be said about watching the exchamge the noght before races. 

[BillyHills]

On 26/10/2016, 18:41:23, chris34 said:

Great idea!

6.40 Chelmsford 

Cant help but be drawn to S Donohoe's Star Links, transferred back to that yard in Ireland. Will be his first ever runner at Chelmsford and long way to go for a selling handicap!

Non Runner Today Chris,

Interesting he is entered at Dundalk in the 8.30 and not without a chance

[Bubbaballsb]

3 minutes ago, BillyHills said:

Non Runner Today Chris,

Interesting he is entered at Dundalk in the 8.30 and not without a chance

All over this Gents. 

[BillyHills]

3.20 Wetherby: Theatre Guide 9/2 Bet365

Trainer Colin Tizzard is worth following at Wetherby.

He has had just 6 runners here in the last 2 years and 4 have won. He comes here in form having had 5 winners in the last week and brings Theatre Guide the 291 miles from his base down south. He will saddle Cue Card and Native River here on Saturday also.

[chris34]

15 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Non Runner Today Chris,

Interesting he is entered at Dundalk in the 8.30 and not without a chance

Indeed, reason for non runner yesterday was down as 'Travel' potentially convenient given he is entered today!

[Jimmy2shoes]

Jockey Pat Cosgrave exits HQ then heads for 2 night rides at Chelmsford City, he's never been a jockey that surrenders away his evening without a great chance of a winner, his standout ride is in the nursery - Race 2 on the card.

The only race this filly has ever won was on the AW at Wolverhampton but she's hit the crossbar in her last 3 appearances and took home 3 silver medals, she was very unlucky last time out at HQ under Luke Morris and once again providing solid evidence she's a hardy type, but the most interesting part of all is Pat Cosgrave is making the journey from HQ and is getting the leg up for the very first time, the 11/2 - 6/1 & 7/1 is worth a Safe E/w Bet.

18:10 Chelmsford City - Texas Katie 

[Jimmy2shoes]

A tricky looking race but if you look more closely and in detail it's all about Stamina and only One animal stands out at getting the trip, Gary Moore's jolly is just too short for me and has never won over this trip, sure it's his only runner but at 6/4 - 7/4 I'm more than happy passing this gelding over.

Richard Hughes shows up with just the 2 runners and i really like his chances in this handicap, his grey gelding is lightly raced and won very well at Lingfield back in July ''running over 1m 6f''

The only niggle i have is this is only the 3'yr old's second time on the AW but he does have the stamina on his side that the others do not, i can see him tracking Gary Moore's runner and when his fuel gauge reads empty Jockey Shane Kelly will simply mirror signal manoeuvre.

20:10 Chelmsford City - Dltripleseven  

Edited October 28, 2016 by Jimmy2shoes

[BillyHills]

Little snippets 

Horses gelded since last run;

3.30 NM: Greenside 4/1 Bet365

5.20 AS: Count Meribel 16/1 Skybet

5.40 CH: Rivers Of Asia 9/1 Skybet

6.10 CH: Shadow Warrior 25/1 Bet365

 

[Jediknight]

Since 2009 the colin tizzard / paddy brennan combination has a 100% win and place record at wetherby. Having 5 runners, winning with 3 and placing the other 2.  The returns are £10.48 (210% roi) and £14.66 (147% roi) respectively.  Their representives today are:

3.20 Cue Card

4.30 Royal Vacation

[Jimmy2shoes]

Not my Day, another Burns Cream Saturday 

Form of Regal Gates last run who won the 20:10

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/27-06-2016/wolverhampton/result/730072/processing-centre-median-auction-maiden-stakes

Edited October 29, 2016 by Jimmy2shoes

[BillyHills]

Brian Ellison is in good form at the moment and has 4 runners at Carlisle on Sunday.

He has only got Carlisle's top jockey Brian Hughes on the first of those which is Pistol Park.

The combination won last time out and probably significant he has stayed loyal as Hughes rides for many northern trainers.

Ellison has had 6 winners from 21 runners in the last 14 days while Hughes has a 25% strike rate over the last 3 seasons here.

1.35 Carlisle: Pistol Park 5/1 Bet635

[BillyHills]

Trainer Lawney Hill has had just 8 runners at Plumpton in the last 2 years and 4 of them won.

Today she sends just one horse in the 2.40.

2.40 Plumpton: Olivers Hill 7/1 BetVictor

[arsenalfh]

Watch out for Henry De Bromhead horses having their first run over hurdles or fences. He has more winners than the odds imply at SP over a big sample so it's worth keeping an eye out for horses with that sort of profile. Looks a good angle.

Edited October 31, 2016 by arsenalfh

[Jimmy2shoes]

His horses have been running well ''without winning'' and looks worth a few quid interest bet

4yr old filly by King's theatre who's only had the one run, she came home 4th but wasn't given a hard time and what with the yard warming up she is worth a little ''interest nibble''

I know nothing of her pilot so that is taken on Pure Faith but again it's not a race to be sticking down the rent money, lost that Saturday  anyways 

4:30 Galway - Just Janice.  Small stake Bet 

 

Edited October 31, 2016 by Jimmy2shoes

[corky]

1350 exeter

 

the last  10 runnings of this has been won by the favourite

[Trotter]

Hope I won't be hounded off the forum for this but I've got an admission to make.........for the last couple of months I've mainly been betting on football

Nothing fancy.......single win only bets on Premier League games, looking at teams that are Evens or better or just a shade of odds-on

If you think about it every match is like a 3 horse race.........you've got to have a decent chance of picking a winner !

[BillyHills]

Your too lazy Trotter, anything with a small field will do !!!

[BillyHills]

Maybe one for the layers??

Brian Ellison has a very poor record at Musselburgh

2 from 42 with his hurdlers over the last 2 years and 3/53 in all NH races.

He saddles Stipulate in the 2.05 race at Musselburgh tomorrow and he's a warm favourite

A 7yo making his belated hurdles debut and the horse hasn't won since 2014 on the flat.

To be fair he's well above the opposition on bare figures but i wouldn't want to be steaming in at 11/10 would you?

 

 

[corky]

wed 1540 musselburgh

sean quinlan has  100% record on  the topweight formidableopponent, 4 wins from four and all within last 50 odd days

[Jimmy2shoes]

1 hour ago, Trotter said:

Hope I won't be hounded off the forum for this but I've got an admission to make.........for the last couple of months I've mainly been betting on football

Nothing fancy.......single win only bets on Premier League games, looking at teams that are Evens or better or just a shade of odds-on

If you think about it every match is like a 3 horse race.........you've got to have a decent chance of picking a winner !

You appear to be in the wrong section

This is for HORSE RACING fans 

[Jimmy2shoes]

1 hour ago, BillyHills said:

Maybe one for the layers??

Brian Ellison has a very poor record at Musselburgh

2 from 42 with his hurdlers over the last 2 years and 3/53 in all NH races.

He saddles Stipulate in the 2.05 race at Musselburgh tomorrow and he's a warm favourite

A 7yo making his belated hurdles debut and the horse hasn't won since 2014 on the flat.

To be fair he's well above the opposition on bare figures but i wouldn't want to be steaming in at 11/10 would you?

 

 

Once in Henry Cecil's yard 

Stipulate is also likely to represent the same connections in the opening £40,000 Listed 32Red Festival Stakes.

Sir Henry Cecil's charge has not scored since trouncing his rivals in the Listed Feilden Stakes at Newmarket in April, 2012, but has been running well in defeat and continued in good form when third in a mile Listed contest at Ascot on May 1.

Lord Grimthorpe continued: "Stipulate has been in good form and working well but we would like to see him step up just a little bit and win one of these nice races.

"I don't think it is a mental thing with him. He is genuine and consistent but frustratingly consistent. On his rating, he should be well up to winning one of these contests. If he settles well, I think the step up in trip might be the answer

[BillyHills]

20 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Maybe one for the layers??

Brian Ellison has a very poor record at Musselburgh

2 from 42 with his hurdlers over the last 2 years and 3/53 in all NH races.

He saddles Stipulate in the 2.05 race at Musselburgh tomorrow and he's a warm favourite

A 7yo making his belated hurdles debut and the horse hasn't won since 2014 on the flat.

To be fair he's well above the opposition on bare figures but i wouldn't want to be steaming in at 11/10 would you?

 

 

One to avoid;

[Tedthewolf]

7.25  Kempton- ENERGIA FOX 18/1 E/W.  O wner  & trainer where on the mark at Notts today  indeed Fahey horses are running very well at present. This horse is still a maiden but i think could go close now put back over the AW looks decent value imo.