The Little Nuggets Thread

[BillyHills]

When trainer Harry Fry visits Plumpton we should sit up and take notice. 

He's only had 2 runners at the track since 2013, one this year and one last year. 

Prior to that he had 5 winners from a total of 6 runners, showing a £24 to £1 level stakes.

Today he sends just one, in the bumper at 3.40.

Fry's record in bumpers overall is quite impressive too, he's showing a £52 profit from his 127 runners (23% S//R)

 

3.40 Plumpton: Black Mischief 11/8 Skybet

 

[BillyHills]

Trainer Neil Mulholland is in great form at present, he's had 8 winners this month already.

His record at Warwick is also very good with a 30% strike rate at the track in the last 2 years.

If we look a little closer we can see that when Noel Fehily is in the saddle the S/R creeps up to an impressive 43% (6/14)

They team up with just one runner on Wednesday, doesn't look anything special on form but maybe worth a small bet?

1.00 Warwick: Chantara Rose 7/1 Bet365

 

[Jediknight]

Chepstow 12.50 Distant High e/w (125/1 betbright or 100/1 b365)

I'm interested in a small each way punt on this one.  He didn't show much on his hurdling debut last time out at Ffos Las, but he does have a very good record on the flat here at Chepstow.  His 12 runs have resulted in a 75% win and place strike rate with 3 wins and 6 places (2nd or 3rd finishes).  So at those odds of (25/1 betbright or 20/1 b365 a place) I think he's well worth a small each bet as he clearly has a liking for Chepstow.  

[BillyHills]

Alan Swinbank has only had 3 runners over jumps since July, 2 have won and the other one was second.

His record at Market Rasen over the last 2 years is impressive too, with 4 winners from 8 runners.

Today saddles just one horse at the track;

1.30 Market Rasen: Ten Trees 11/2 Coral

[Jimmy2shoes]

Just the one sole ride for Sir Paddy Brennan today at Haydock 

If you want it, you'll find it

 

[corky]

On 11/4/2016, 1:33:16, corky said:

trainer warren greatrex has a win strike rate of 43% in bumper races with 1st time out horses

1615 odello 

he also has a place strike rate 71% in same type races

3 wins from 7 races

5 places from 7 races

he has another 1st time out 1550 ascot sat,

sandhurst lad currently best priced 6/1 bet 365, 3rd in betting market

[corky]

1250 cork sunday 20th

 

wullie mullins has won this race for last 3 years

and jockey paul townend has always had the ride

pp have best price of evens, whilst  others mark it up 4/6

[BillyHills]

Gordon Elliott has 15 runners in Ireland on Sunday yet sends one horse to Uttoxeter;

His record at Uttoxeter is pretty good with 6 winners from 15 runners in his career.

1.35 Uttox: Lilywhite Gesture 5/2 Skybet

 

_____________________________________

Malcolm Jefferson is not a frequent visitor to Uttoxeter and has only had 3 runners at the track this year.

However two of those 3 runners have won and saddles just one horse on Sunday.

At the moment he's in good form with 5 winners from his last 12 runners.

3.45 Uttox: Black Ivory 5/2 Bet365

 

[corky]

On 11/19/2016, 5:55:47, corky said:

1250 cork sunday 20th

 

wullie mullins has won this race for last 3 years

and jockey paul townend has always had the ride

pp have best price of evens, whilst  others mark it up 4/6

massive drifter, out as big as 4/1. came back at 5/2

not a world beater, but one to watch,, imo

[Jimmy2shoes]

Dandy Nicholls sends out just the one runner for Chelmsford City, his 6yr old gelding was a gallant (5th behind Brando) in the Ayr Gold cup, he then won after that at Ripon under S.D.S over the 6f

He was 3rd last time out in a (Class 1) under Pat Cosgrave and must be showing some spark back home for Dandy to send him on a lone long journey from Yorkshire to Chelmsford racecourse.

Dandy's animals that shift in the betting market are normally worth an interest.

Connor Beasley gets the leg up for the first time, he's not been in great form but does bang in a few at today's venue.

4pm Chelmsford City - Kimberella 

[BillyHills]

I'm interested in trainer Alan Swinbank again tomorrow. This time at Sedgefield where he has a  25% S/R from his 12 runners over the last couple of years.

Paul Moloney has struck up a good relationship with Swinbank and they have a 28% S/R together.

In the last race Moloney gets off the Evan Williams (his retainer) trained horse to ride one for Swinbank. The trainer has a 30% S/R with Bumper horses at the track but Moloney has never ridden any of them!

3.20 Sedgefield : Codeshare 9/4 Bet365

[Jimmy2shoes]

2 hours ago, BillyHills said:

I'm interested in trainer Alan Swinbank again tomorrow. This time at Sedgefield where he has a  25% S/R from his 12 runners over the last couple of years.

Paul Moloney has struck up a good relationship with Swinbank and they have a 28% S/R together.

In the last race Moloney gets off the Evan Williams (his retainer) trained horse to ride one for Swinbank. The trainer has a 30% S/R with Bumper horses at the track but Moloney has never ridden any of them!

3.20 Sedgefield : Codeshare 9/4 Bet365

Like Ya way of thinking G 

Tom George & Adrian Heskin show up with one shot of a winner, on paper they look the only Danger 

 

[BillyHills]

2 hours ago, Jimmy2shoes said:

Like Ya way of thinking G 

Tom George & Adrian Heskin show up with one shot of a winner, on paper they look the only Danger 

 

Tom George is going well at the minute too!

 Mind you so is Evan Williams but his cant be any good or Moloney would have been on him.

[Jimmy2shoes]

16 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Tom George is going well at the minute too!

 Mind you so is Evan Williams but his cant be any good or Moloney would have been on him.

That was always going to happen eh G'

As it always does 

[BillyHills]

1 hour ago, Jimmy2shoes said:

That was always going to happen eh G'

As it always does 

Backed in from 8/1 (last night) to 7/2 SP

[Jimmy2shoes]

1 hour ago, BillyHills said:

Backed in from 8/1 (last night) to 7/2 SP

Had a little nibble on the Tom George runner but it's too near the King George for high stakes 

[Jediknight]

Kempton 7.25 Spring Loaded (5/1 b365)

This fellow is a real all weather specialist, in his 11 races on the artificial surface he has only finished out of the frame once.  He really excells here at kempton with a 100% win and place strike rate, his record reading R6 W4 P2.  He hasn't got a great draw today, being drawn right on the outside but if he can overcome that, his all weather record and here in particular indicates that he'll take some beating

Edited November 23, 2016 by Jediknight
original post had an incomplete sentence

[BillyHills]

In the last 2 years Dan Skelton has had 7 winners from just 15 hurdlers at Wetherby (46%)

Has two running over timber today, both making their debut. 

(2 from 4 with debutants over hurdles at Wetherby)

 

12.20 Ulva Ferry 7/1 Bet365

1.55 Indirocco 100/30 BetVic

 

 

[Jimmy2shoes]

A whisper is kicking around that Goring One is expected to run a better race that he did last time out (11 days ago) and money has come for this 11yr old gelding, jockey Andrew Thornton shows up for this one sole ride.

I'm passing on the combo and feel Kim Bailey's 7yr old gelding fully deserves another chance, his luck was out last time out when he sadly hit the deck at the 1st fence, he has a very short millage and should have leaned the requirements now for getting to the other side of obstacles today, Mr Bailey is no stranger in showjumping and will have him more prepared for this handicap chase over 2m 5f

If I'm wrong then so be it but i feel the cash being placed on Goring One is Sheep £

15:15 Towcester - Texas Forever 

[BillyHills]

Just something i've noticed which may be of interest to some;

Richard Hughes runs a horse in the nursery at Chelmsford at 4.55

Three runs so far at 7f, down the field in all of them and got a mark of just 48

Now had 4 months off, been gelded since last seen, steps up to 1m2f and first time in handicap.

Might be nothing but will watch with interest;

4.55 Ch: Dont You Think 16/1 Bet365

 

[Jimmy2shoes]

On 11/12/2016, 12:57:52, Jimmy2shoes said:

George Baker looks to have been given a good penalty kick in the opener at Lingfield Park.

Never been a fan of Pat Cosgrave who gets the leg up for Mr Haggas and the fact Mark Johnston is sending out this sole runner makes his 2yr old worth a significant bet, he won on debut at Carlisle over 7f with Franny Norton doing the steering and wasn't given a harsh racing intro.

His Sire is the derby winning Motivator and he could have a bright future, today's race on the AW will only raise a few more eyebrows, George is the perfect partner for him and the showing 7/2 and 3/1 looks very very generous and it's still 6 weeks to Christmas.

11:45 Lingfield Park - Time to Study.  Confident Win Bet

Always the same when they run a week later and you don't bookmark them 

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/17-11-2016/chelmsford-city/result/753066/toteexacta-forecast-the-1st-and-2nd-conditions-stakes-plus-10

[BillyHills]

I saw the race Jimmy, absolutely hosed up

[Jimmy2shoes]

2 hours ago, BillyHills said:

I saw the race Jimmy, absolutely hosed up

Baker fell asleep on him when he was up top

[BillyHills]

Nothing really sticks out over the jumps on Friday but its interesting looking at how the favourites perform.

At Newbury in the Chases over the last two years only 16 fav's have won from 69 races, that works out at 23% which is way down on the average performance at most places. (Its even worse if you just look at for last season alone) At Doncaster for example over the same period its 33% (about average).

(Fav Hurdlers at Newbury far much better with 28/83 (34%))

 

3 Chases on Friday 1.05, 1.35 and the 2.45 lets see how many jollies we can get beat!

[Jediknight]

Two horses of interest today:

Newcastle 2.20 Statutesque

Newbury 1.05 Double W's

Both trainers (M Stoute and JM Jefferson respectively) travel a very long way for their only runners of the day

[BillyHills]

19 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Nothing really sticks out over the jumps on Friday but its interesting looking at how the favourites perform.

At Newbury in the Chases over the last two years only 16 fav's have won from 69 races, that works out at 23% which is way down on the average performance at most places. (Its even worse if you just look at for last season alone) At Doncaster for example over the same period its 33% (about average).

(Fav Hurdlers at Newbury far much better with 28/83 (34%))

 

3 Chases on Friday 1.05, 1.35 and the 2.45 lets see how many jollies we can get beat!

All 3 fav's lost

3/1, 15/8 and 2/1

[BillyHills]

Trainer Warren Greatrex and jockey Gavin Sheehan are worth following when they go for a day trip to Bangor!

Over the last 3 seasons Greatrex has had 11 winners from just 26 runners (17 have been placed) and he is running at a 26pt profit.

In non-handicaps his figures improve to a 50% Strike rate.

When Sheehan is on top they have had 7 winners from 18 runners (25pt profit).

 

On Saturday they team up with 3 runners;

12.30: Ma Da Fou (Nov Chase)

2.15: Burlington Bert (Nov Hurdle)

3.25: Keeper Hill (Nov Hurdle)

[BillyHills]

Lucinda Russell is a very rare visitor to Leicester and in fact hasn't had a runner at the track in the last 5 years. (Only ever had 3 runners)

She sends one horse to the Midlands track and will be furthest traveller today at 331 miles.

 

2.40: Catchthemoonlight 4/1 Bet365

[Jediknight]

Newcastle 3.50 Tegara (5/4 skybet)

Not the most original of selections, but one that's hard to avoid none the less beacuse of the trainers record.  James Fanshawe has a 71% win and 86% win and place strike rate with his handicap runners here at Newcastle

[corky]

alan kings national hunt flat horses have won 11 out of last 55, 20% win strike rate.with a level £ stake giving a profit

of £9.49