The Little Nuggets Thread

[BillyHills]

Dr Richard Newland has never had a runner at Musselburgh 

On Thursday he sends two horses on the 636 mile round trip

 

2.55 Milrow 11/8 Paddy Power

3.30 Seafood 9/4 Betfred

 

[Jimmy2shoes]

Had a good look at the last on the card at Newbury and (3) horses & jockeys stand out but will attempt to narrow those three down to (1)

Polydora was down for a run yesterday in the closing bumper at Chepstow under Richard Johnson but never took part, ''ground at a guess''  will the 4yr old take part today under the now booking of NDB ? and not Richard Johnson ''who's in this race but has jumped ship  cash came for them at MR on 15th Oct but they were never at the races.

Burbank is trained by Nicky Henderson and has a great sire in (Yeats) the 4yr old has 4 entries from today till 5th Nov so he might be worth watching ''Market Check'' and I'm never keen on Nicky's bumper horses first time out, they always run out of petrol ..........With my cash down anyway 

My gut feeling is this closing bumper race could be in the hands of Mr Alan King, his 4yr old gelding has two entries but they have opted for here ''Newbury''

Mr Kings last winner was back on the 25th of Oct but he's been striking the woodwork so it's just a matter of time before he hits the net ''GOAL'', he only sends out two runners today and i have this new recruit as his best chance of a winner, However if Dusky Legend wins the feature at 14:35 I'd be tempted in doubling my stake and having some faith and confidence in Mr King sending Two and winning Two.

16:15 Newbury - Hidden Cargo  

[corky]

gigginstown runners have 33% win  strike rate at todays course, thurles, 2 runners today

gordon elliot has a 28% win strike rate at thurles  2 runners today

ruby walsh has a 28% strike rate at thurles, has one ride for elliot/giggin

ruby walsh and gordon elliot have a 39% strike rate and ruby has a 27% win rate when in gigginstoun colours

elliot/giggin/ruby 1500 dounikos

elliot.giggin 1610 hardline

[Sir Puntalot]

On 01/11/2016, 18:59:53, Trotter said:

Hope I won't be hounded off the forum for this but I've got an admission to make.........for the last couple of months I've mainly been betting on football

Nothing fancy.......single win only bets on Premier League games, looking at teams that are Evens or better or just a shade of odds-on

If you think about it every match is like a 3 horse race.........you've got to have a decent chance of picking a winner !

I don't see any @Trotter bets in the footy forums, he must be all talk.   

[Trotter]

4 minutes ago, Sir Puntalot said:

I don't see any @Trotter bets in the footy forums, he must be all talk.   

there's a footy forum ?........

 

[Sir Puntalot]

1 minute ago, Trotter said:

there's a footy forum ?........

 

One or 2....ok 17, so yeah get it sorted. I'm off before @BillyHills tells me off for hijacking this thread.  

[BillyHills]

Trainer Sylvester Kirk is in good nick with 3 winners out of his last 4 runners this month on the AW.

He has only had one runner on the Tapeta at Newcastle before and that was heavily backed (finished 4th).

Its 281 miles to the North-East and today he sends a debutant to run in the 4.20, Oberyn is half sister to 7 winners and looks like she could be above average. She has to take on the paper favourite Bourbonisto here but i wouldnt be surprised to see her backed before the off and run a good race. In time i think she will want further but this is a very weak maiden.

4.20 Newcastle: Oberyn 7/2 Bet365

[mr.benn]

On 03/11/2016, 12:11:01, corky said:

gigginstown runners have 33% win  strike rate at todays course, thurles, 2 runners today

gordon elliot has a 28% win strike rate at thurles  2 runners today

ruby walsh has a 28% strike rate at thurles, has one ride for elliot/giggin

ruby walsh and gordon elliot have a 39% strike rate and ruby has a 27% win rate when in gigginstoun colours

elliot/giggin/ruby 1500 dounikos

elliot.giggin 1610 hardline

Nice one!

[corky]

trainer warren greatrex has a win strike rate of 43% in bumper races with 1st time out horses

1615 odello 

he also has a place strike rate 71% in same type races

3 wins from 7 races

5 places from 7 races

[corky]

trainer paul nichols has a 45% win strike rate in nh flat races in last 12 months

his horses have a 45% strike rate at local track wincanton( all codes)

he has won this race 4 times in last 9 years

his horse tomorrow 1555 wincanton, as and when, whose owner jp mcmanus

and when trainer owner team up they have 20% strike rate

and jockey trainer combo have 20% strike rate

trainer in good form 29 winners last month 40% strike rate

 

Edited November 4, 2016 by corky
missed out course

[BillyHills]

Harry Fry's chasers are going well at present and are worth following.

He has had 5 winners from his last 11 runners and saddles 2 at Aintree today which is a 480 mile round trip

1.30 Ain: Wotzizname 11/8 Bet365

3.10 Ain: Thomas Brown 5/1 Bet365

[Jediknight]

The Paul Nicholls / Harry Cobden combination have a deadly record at Wincanton with 8 wins and 1 place from 10 runners since 2009, representing an 80% win rate and a 90% win and place rate with profits of £9.21 and £11.30 respectively.  This is even better when concentrating on handicaps only with 5 wins from five runners.  Today however, they do have a total of 6 runners, with 4 of them in handicaps.  But they have won that really interests me because coupled with those stats above, during that period he has run 4 times here, recording 3 wins and a place.

Wincanton 3.20 Southfield Theatre (7/2 b365)  

[BillyHills]

Not much going on today but Stuart Crawford sends just one runner to Carlisle which might be worth keeping an eye on.

The horse is Shadow Recruit in the NH Flat race at 4.00 and interestingly Richard Johnson is going to hang around until the last race to ride him.

Crawford has a 50% strike rate for his bumpers at Carlisle (3 from 6) and overall has 4 winners from 9 runners in the last 2 years. From that you can see he mainly concentrates on Bumpers at this course for some reason. Johnson has ridden 6 winners from 21 rides for the trainer so not a bad record. Might be worth an EW bet at least.

4.00 Carlisle: Shadow Recruit 11/2 Skybet

[Snoopdog]

At 10 am Shadow R was 4/1 win, or 4/5 place only (3) with 10 runners at PP. [I prefer 9 or 10 in the morning as it allows a couple of drop-outs and still 3 places.] So I've done a little place only "fun bet" (Fun bets normally lose!).

[Handy tip - Sometimes place only odds are slightly greater than each-way terms (though not in the above case which is 1/5 Place only vs 1/4 each way terms.) In those cases, if you want to back e/w, why not split bets, ie separate win and place, rather than e/w. Along similar lines, I feel (but haven't tried it) that a place only accumulator would often pay more than the Placepot.]

12.40pm, SR is 5/1 win, 10//1 Place only (3places) with PP.

[Snoopdog]

Correction 10/11 PO3 at 12.40 pm

 

[corky]

top newmarket flat trainer hugo palmer  saddles a 3 year old gelding in the last race at huntington, a junior bumper 1 mile 5 with 

nico de boinville taking the ride, its only the trainers 2nd runner in this format, his only other runner won 

 

currently priced 2/1

[corky]

15 hours ago, corky said:

top newmarket flat trainer hugo palmer  saddles a 3 year old gelding in the last race at huntington, a junior bumper 1 mile 5 with 

nico de boinville taking the ride, its only the trainers 2nd runner in this format, his only other runner won 

 

currently priced 2/1

this is currently a big drifter, out to 4/1

[BillyHills]

Brian Ellison had 3 winners at the last meeting at Sedgefield and just has the one runner today.

Apterix 2.40

Interestingly Danny Cook rides this one instead of the Sue Smith runner Blakemount. (current fav)

Ellison has had more winners at this course than any other in the country and Cook has ridden the most winners for him.

This one was eased last time out once his chance had gone and is available at 9/2

[winston2014]

3 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Brian Ellison had 3 winners at the last meeting at Sedgefield and just has the one runner today.

Apterix 2.40

Interestingly Danny Cook rides this one instead of the Sue Smith runner Blakemount. (current fav)

Ellison has had more winners at this course than any other in the country and Cook has ridden the most winners for him.

This one was eased last time out once his chance had gone and is available at 9/2

Cheers lad

[Jimmy2shoes]

2 minutes ago, winston2014 said:

Cheers lad

YUPP What he said 

[BillyHills]

The obvious 'nugget' on Wednesday is the appearance of Jamie Moore up at Ayr to ride 2 horses for trainers that he never ridden for before.

Moore has had 6 rides here since 2011, winning once.

He rides Starplex in the first race for Keith Dalgleish, the horse has not run for over 600 days.

Later on he partners Generous Pet for Kenneth Slack, the yard are in fair form and this horse returns from a lay off (204 days) but has won his last 4 races.

 

1.10 Starplex 7/1 Bet365

3.20 Generous Pet 5/1 Skybet

 

[corky]

1605 ludlow has a great strike rate for odds on favourites, 3 from 3

and id be surprised if the tissue jolly aint odds on,

lord huntington for the inform alan king yard is best priced 4/6 pp, with majority of bookmakers going 4/7

[BillyHills]

Kim Bailey is the most successful trainer at Towcester over the last couple of years with 6 winners from 17 runners

David Bass is the most successful jockey at Towcester over the last couple of years with 8 winners from 23 rides.

There figures improve to 50% each when just looking at chases and they team up with one runner over fences on Thursday.

3.15 Towcester: Jimmy The Jetplane 7/2 Bet365

[corky]

17 hours ago, BillyHills said:

Kim Bailey is the most successful trainer at Towcester over the last couple of years with 6 winners from 17 runners

David Bass is the most successful jockey at Towcester over the last couple of years with 8 winners from 23 rides.

There figures improve to 50% each when just looking at chases and they team up with one runner over fences on Thursday.

3.15 Towcester: Jimmy The Jetplane 7/2 Bet365

doesnt help when fences are omitted due to the winter sun

[BillyHills]

Sods law; Bailey and Bass won the last race with Robin The Raven at 2/1!

[corky]

bin suroor has a 32% strike rate at lingfield, 8 wins from 25, pat cosgrove doesnt have many rides, for bin suroor, only 2 to date and he has a 50% win rate and has   an oppurtunity to improve that on team meeting 1245 lingfield, currently priced 10/11

[BillyHills]

3.15 Cheltenham: Novices Handicap Hurdle

8/10 Winners started 8/1 or less.

8/10 Winners had run at least twice that season.

7/10 Winners carried 11st or more.

7/10 Winners were 1st or 2nd last time out.

6/10 Winners rated between 110-120.

 

Selection: Debece 7/1 Bet365

[Jimmy2shoes]

George Baker looks to have been given a good penalty kick in the opener at Lingfield Park.

Never been a fan of Pat Cosgrave who gets the leg up for Mr Haggas and the fact Mark Johnston is sending out this sole runner makes his 2yr old worth a significant bet, he won on debut at Carlisle over 7f with Franny Norton doing the steering and wasn't given a harsh racing intro.

His Sire is the derby winning Motivator and he could have a bright future, today's race on the AW will only raise a few more eyebrows, George is the perfect partner for him and the showing 7/2 and 3/1 looks very very generous and it's still 6 weeks to Christmas.

11:45 Lingfield Park - Time to Study.  Confident Win Bet

[Jimmy2shoes]

Expensive loss 

[BillyHills]

Trainer Warren Greatrex is worth following at the moment, especially his novice/maiden hurdlers.

Since the beginning of September he has had just 5 runners in this sphere and has had 1 winner, 3 second's and a fourth.

Overall he has had 4 winners from 8 runners in the last month and 13 of his last 20 runners have been in the first three.

Over the last 2 years Greatrex has had 7 winners from just 17 runners at Fontwell

 

Two runners on Sunday;

2.10 (Chase) Chef D'Oeuvre 7/2 Bet365

2.45 (Nov Hurdle) Savoy Court 9/4 Skybet