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Monthly Naps Comp - Tuesday 15th March 2016


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2:50 Cheltenham : Double Ross @ 50/1 William Hill e/w thanks

Double Ross....This is one I back all the time as you usually get a turn with him , He's a C&D winner three times when dropping to Grade 3 races here also found some place finishes aswell , Conditions are perfect for him with Jamie Moore in saddle , Also my wee mate called Ross

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Cheltenham 4.50 - Native River 9/1 William Hill

 

I was a big fan of this one for the RSA after his win at Newbury and whilst his Kempton run didnt put me off he was well below his best on heavy on his last start. He was poor that day and it could have been the ground or it could have just been a poor run but he has the help of blinkers now and everything is just screaming to me that he wants exactly this type of test. Decent ground, marathon trip and I think the hill will suit him too based on the first two runs I have mentioned. He has a very good amateur on board as well and his trainer has been in great form all season.

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Been a while since I played this.... :cigar

Going for my best value system play of the day - Borough Boy @  15:55 Southwell 

Speed Ratings
Borough Boy - 917
*Addictive Dream - 880
Captain Lars - 865
Greyfriarschorista - 863

All of these horses are not only quickest but improving all the time. Borough Boy has ran the quickest recently (LTO) by quite some margin. The only other horse who has ran a standout time recently has been Greyfriarschorista (LTO). *Addictive Dream is the danger horse. He ran an 882 LTO on his all weather debut and if he improves on this, he could find himself in contention with the leaders. Captain Lars is also a threat if he improves further. 

Pace Analysis
Early Race Pace
Borough Boy
Addictive Dream
Jacob's Pillow

Mid Race Pace
Sir Billy Wright
Clubland
Greyfriarschorista
Addictive Dream
Jacob's Pillow

There is a bias for front runners at Southwell. Quick starters tend to do well as do runners with mid race pace.

Late Race Pace
Clubland
Greyfriarschorista
Addictive Dream
Jacob's Pillow

According to the speed figures, if Borough Boy improves on or even runs close to his LTO (951) he will win this race. My concern for him is the pace this race will run at and it won't be the start that decides it. The front runners will be tracked at the mid way point by the likes of Sir Billy Wright who may even have the pace to take the lead. He will tail off 2f out but the late stayers such as Greyfriarschorista and *Addictive Dream could have enough pace left to challenge, especially given that Borough Boy hasn't proven himself in the final furlong yet. He will definitely be there at the end.

Borough Boy - 1pt Win @ SP - Only the speed raters will back him though so price should drift. 

Good luck!

SIG :cigar

Edited by SIG
Wrong stake ffs
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Sou 1.55 - Aegean Boy - ew at 25/1 bog betvictor

3yo maiden over 5f

My selection finished 4th over CD on his racecourse debut a couple of weeks ago.

Two of his rivals today finished in front of him but he appeared to show promise and looked inexperienced as thought he would come on a lot for the run, so I think there's a fair chance he can make up the ground

He's drawn quite high in 7 of 9 (oo er, Jeri Ryan......phwoar!)........but I haven't really noticed the low draw bias that we were following on the forum last year......and in any case the favourite is in 9 and one of the ones that beat him last time is in 8

 

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2.50 Cheltenham - Regal Encore e/w @ 28/1 - Bet365

Out Sam looks thrown in here off 139 after beating a 142 rated horse who now has a mark of 145 with ease last time out but in general I'm not mad on lightly raced novices with little experience in these races. Holywell also could be thrown in but he has shown nothing this season so he might not be the same horse and looks very short. I reckon Audacious Plan is well handicapped although I believe he wants further so my strong fancy in this is Regal Encore.

He went off favourite for the Pertemps last year and ran a good race to finish 7th before running a great race when staying on to finish a length off the winner at Aintree. He's been running off the pace over trips too short for him on bad ground all season and has dropped to a mark of 3lbs lower than his hurdles mark. Jumping has been an issue but he looked very good when he put it together a Plumpton over the winter and interestingly there's a 60k bonus for him if he wins today off the back of that win. Geraghty rode him as the 2nd string last time which was also interesting and if the better ground helps his jumping he looks well handicapped. You can be sure he'll be trying today especially as he is McManus' only runner and looks a fascinating contender.

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3.30 Cheltenham: Identity Thief @ 15/2 Bet365 

The one in the field most likely to improve big time. Has to improve to feature but looks very talented. Big run over Christmas when just beaten in slogging finish by Nichols Canyon. Hasn't much to find with the Mullins horse on that form but is almost certain to enjoy the better ground today which should enable him to turn the table. Whether that is enough to overturn Annie Power remains to be seen, but this is a silly price in my mind, way over the top. 

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4 winning bets

Xtc 2nd 9/1, Oppo 2/1, Steve 8/1 & BH 3rd 14/1

 

laters

22 hours ago, Boulder5111 said:

W8.10 Dukes Den 25/1 Bet365

This horse has been running over hurdles for the last 4 runs and may just appreciate a return to not only the flat, but also the c&d of its only career win to date. Just 2lb higher now and the same jockey has been booked which is interesting.

 

 

2 hours ago, geeuppy said:

8.10 wolverhampton - helmsman ( 1 point win @ sp )

 

2 hours ago, bymatrix said:

Cosette 8.10 Wolverhampton , 20/1 BetVictor

 

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