February 1 - February 7

[CzechPunter]

[ogii55]

One proposition from today's final of Bucaramanga challenger:

 

Melzer - Lorenzi  3.87 Pinnacle

 

Melzer is playing very well here. He improves his game with each match. He missed the chance to participate in qualifications in Quito, because of the final so he will put everything. This is one of the best seasons for the Austrian, who already won a chalenger title on clay in Mendoza.

Lorenzi for sure is very strong on clay, but he already lost from Melzer here a year ago. The Italian veteran needed three sets in three of his four matches here. He came here directly from Australia and the conditions in Bucaramanga are different. His last two matches lasted 2.30 and almost 3 hours, so the veteran may have some problems with gaz.

In the worst scenario the match is 50-50, but the odds are great for Melzer.

 

 

[CzechPunter]

Back Feliciano Lopez to win ATP Quito for a 3/10 stake at 7.50 with Bet365

Back Victor Estrella to beat Guido Pella for a 7/10 stake at 2.30 with BetVictor

Back Austin Krajicek to beat Roberto Carballes Baena for a 7/10 stake at 2.62 with Bet365

Lopez is my outright bet in Quito, he was the finalist there last year and seems to be playing well enough right now as well, 7.50 is therefore a good price imo. Two underdogs in the first round, Estrella and Krajicek. Quito is Estrella's favourite place and he's got a good record against Pella, as well as some clay court match practice going into this. I'd have him at 2.10, not above. Krajicek should also have a good chance against Carballes Baena despite not being a clay court specialist. The Quite conditions are bound to be quite fast and I'd rate him as a much better player of the two, so why he's 2.62 against the out-of-form Baena is beyond me.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/atp-quito-outright-2016013102

[CzechPunter]

Back Alexander Zverev to beat Luca Vanni for a 7/10 stake at 1.55 with Unibet

No outrights for me in Montpellier, but I'll go with Zverev on day one, he should just be way too strong for Vanni, who is just a Challenger player imo, can't see him rising above that. Zverev might be 1-3 for the season, but that includes two losses against Murray and one 1-2 defeat against Kyrgios, so don't read into that at all.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/atp-montpellier-day-one-2016013101

[ogii55]

Victor E. Burgos - Guido Pella 2.34 Matchbook

 

The champion is a surprising outsider here. He didn't start very well the season, but showed some promising things last week in Bucaramanga Challenger.

Last year Burgos stunned a lot of the favorites and it will not be a problem to beat Pella. He's got 3:2 advantage in direct matchups. Burgos has a lot of points to defend so he must show his prime game here. Pella is very good clay player, but it will be his first match for the season on red court.

 

Dusan Lajovic - Albert Ramos 2.72 Pinnacle

 

Lajovic took two sets from Bautista Agut in Australian open. However hard is his worst surface and he will be far better on clay. Lajovic is on the run after very strong last season. In 2015 he made some good results during South American tournaments and will be looking for improvement. Ramos is a class on clay, but he has problems playing in South America. It will be very close match and I see Lajovic's odds as value bet.

[Fader]

I'm taking a couple in ATP Montpellier :

4pts R.Gasquet to win ATP Montpellier 11/2 Skybet
1pt B.Coric to win ATP Montpellier 28/1 Sportingbet

Just the freshness Gasguet will have over the over players. He is at home and only really Cilic would put me off going higher stakes. He won this last year albeit winning the final because of retirement of other player. 11/2 seems a decent price as he should atleast make the semi-final here.

[Fader]

5pts A.Zverev to beat L.Vanni 2-0 6/5 Betway
Fancy the big hitting Zverev to beat Vanni here in 2 sets. The higher ranked player and I just cannot see Vanni breaking him. Never played eachother before.Zverev may not show great form but he is losing to players like Murray which you'd expect. The serve should make the difference. Zverev in 2 for me. 

[four-leaf]

Back Dusan Lajovic (-1.5 sets) to beat Albert Ramos at 4.33 with Bet365

It's a big risk but I just got to try this. Lajovic can be seriously hard to break and I've seen that on hardcourt late last season and it's been obvious so far this season too when he faced Bautista Agut in AO and I think Ramos might get a nasty surprise here facing Lajovic with his quite good serving and baseline skills. As Ogii apointed out hard is also his worst surface and he's started the season well enough on that surface similar to how he finished last season on hard indoors and I suspect he could roll on in south america. Ramos can be a test on clay no doubt but I suspect he's not in his best form. He did beat Federer in Shanghai so it does happen that Ramos gets some wins here and there. Last season Lajovic got to the quarters in Quito losing to Feliciano Lopez beating Vanni 7-6 6-4 in the first round and I think he's got some decent chances for a repeat. We'll see how this one goes. It will probably be close and hopefully it ends in straight sets for Lajovic.

[four-leaf]

On 2016-01-31 16:08:53, CzechPunter said:

Back Alexander Zverev to beat Luca Vanni for a 7/10 stake at 1.55 with Unibet

No outrights for me in Montpellier, but I'll go with Zverev on day one, he should just be way too strong for Vanni, who is just a Challenger player imo, can't see him rising above that. Zverev might be 1-3 for the season, but that includes two losses against Murray and one 1-2 defeat against Kyrgios, so don't read into that at all.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/atp-montpellier-day-one-2016013101

What a match! Zverev showed some great character turning it all around. He was in big trouble in third set facing a matchpoint and being down 4-2 with Vanni serving for 5-2. Saw it all and Zverev played really good and Vanni also played really good. Both was serving great and made few unforced errors. I just felt that it would be just a matter of time before Zverev would eventually win since he was the better player. Vanni was getting the ball back all the time. It was very annoying but finally Zverev managed to get his nose infront and then well he still could have lost it but his talent really showed at that last point when he struck a winner down the line.

[CzechPunter]

Yep, that really was a crazy match. Vanni was serving like Karlovic in the first set

Back Nicolas Mahut (-1.5) to beat Jan-Lennard Struff for a 7/10 stake at 1.72 with Paddy Power

Back Paul-Henri Mathieu (-2.5) to beat Elias Ymer for a 7/10 stake at 1.90 with Paddy Power

Back Quentin Halys to beat Ernests Gulbis for a 7/10 stake at 2.75 with Paddy Power

Shouldn't be too hard for Mahut and Mathieu I think. Struff playing poorly right now, while Mahut is on the rise, so I'm even willing to look past the H2H record in that one. Ymer's game isn't really suited to the Montpellier conditions, so I fancy Mathieu against him quite strongly. Finally, you just never know what you're going to get with Gulbis and I wonder how big the motivation will be against an unknown like Halys. The truth is, however, that Halys is an up and coming player that spent the entire last season in French indoors tournaments, so he should fancy himself to get the win here, especially after that strong display in Melbourne.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/atp-montpellier-day-two-2016020103

[ogii55]

Andrej Martin - Marcel Granollers 3.1 Unibet

 

Martin is coming from qualification and already made acclimatization on the ATP tournament that is on 2800 m above the sea. Something more, he is in South America since the start of the year, while Granollers is coming from Australia and he is a guy who often has problems against week opponents in the first rounds of the tournaments. The Spaniard never scored good results in South America and it's strange why he decided to go there.

Martin is a 100% clay player, who rarely goes to h/lh/grass tournaments. This is his chance to make a big break after showing some promise on challenger tournaments last year.

[Fader]

Very annoying. I really expected a 2-0 there. Will try to get the points back today. 

ATP Montpellier
5.5pts N.Mahut to beat Struff -1.5 games 8/11 Bet365
Struff has been in poor form for a while now whilst Mahut has started to pick up some form himself. He also plays at home here and will have the support of the crowd. Id expect him to win 2-0 but I don't want to risk that at this early stage. He should cover this handicap even if he wins in three really. 

5pts J.Sousa -4.5 games to beat R.Bemelmans 6/5 Bet365
I think Sousa is a far higher level of player than Bemelmans. Id expect a 2-0 here and he should win atleast one of the sets with a couple of breaks so I'm taking a gamble on the handicap. -4.5 is quite a lot but Sousa is really a rising player at the moment. He did well against Murray in the AO and even prior to that match in the QF he really pushed his advantage in games winning 3-0/3-1 in games so he isn't the type of player to "turn off" when he thinks he is ahead. 

[Fader]

ATP Sofia
5pts H.Chung to beat M.Copil 2-0 13/10 Boylesports
Been thinking back and forth about this one as it's a difficult task trying to determine if Copil will turn up or not. For me, Copil is just someone who serves well on his day which could disrupt things with this bet. Chung is a good all round player. He serves well, and can move around the court and play to the baseline so I do think he will win this in two sets. My only worry would be a tie-breaker where Copil decides to up his game but I'm willing to take the chance.

[ogii55]

Pablo Carreno-Busta to win Quito tournament 15.58 Pinnacle

 

A typical clay player, who is in the easier part of the draw. He probably will meet Belluci in the 1/4-finals and then Tomic in the semis. Busta showed improvement on hard in his early season matches. In 2014 and 2015 he improved in a steady pace his rankings and I think now is the moment for him to attack the first ATP title. I was impressed how he played in his first round match against Brazilian clay grinder Rogerio Dutra Da Silva, giving him a total of 35 points for the entire match. 

[Fader]

bloody terrible tipping. I think this is due to the transition from Hardcourt to indoor hard but no excuses. That's a shocker so far. I'll get the points back by the end of the week

4pts Halys to beat Gulbis 13/8 Skybet
2pts Halys to win 2-0 4/1 Paddypower
Well worth the punt on this. Halys has been a breakthrough player of late and he showed himself in a great light at the Aus Open. Gulbis is very up and down and last year he didn't even win a match until March I believe. I think the value is with Halys and I'm going to risk a 2-0 also to try and get some points back as if he gets the first set it could easily be 2-0 IMO.

1.5pts D.Brown to beat S.Darcis 2-1 10/3 Betway
I fancy Brown to get revenge over Darcis win over him in there only head-2-head. But I also think it will be very close. Darcis not long back from injury so Id imagine we'd have plenty of games. Id also be suprised if anybody won in straight sets so small stakes on the 2-1 win.

[four-leaf]

Fader I took Darcis to win in a double with Gilles Muller to win 2-0 but I really had my doubts so after the Muller match was over I closed the bet. Now I think I agree about Brown to win instead but I don't feel like taking the risk with 2-1 for Brown but it maybe is a good bet.

[ogii55]

Busta (-1.5 sets) - Cervantes 2.2 Pinnacle

 

Busta started very well here and showed that he loves the conditions. He just scored a double wins against #2 seated Raja/Ram, which also is huge plus for him. When Pablo is on form, he is beating weaker opponents convincingly. Cervantes has some luck in his first round match and made 12 double faults with less than 50% first serve in. If he shows such performance, I can't see him taking a set against Busta. The odds are already going down for this proposition. I took it two hours ago at 2.34.

[CzechPunter]

Back Ernests Gulbis to beat Richard Gasquet for a 7/10 stake at 2.75 with Ladbrokes

Back Gael Monfils (-3.5) to beat Edouard Roger-Vasselin for a 7/10 stake at 1.66 with Paddy Power

Gulbis looked surprisingly good today, not sure about what form will Gasquet be in, so I'm happy to back the Latvian in what should be a tough comeback challenge for the Frenchman. Meanwhile, Monfils should be way too strong for Roger-Vasselin, who even struggled to get through the qualifiers.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/atp-montpellier-day-three-2016020204

[delfino]

I do not give a single penny for part-timers like Gulbis

Another part-timer is Baghdatis. Today i predict Daniel Taro to cause all kind of troubles to the Cypriot who was looking as veteran during his match against Tsonga in Australia

Daniel Taro +3.5 games to beat Baghdatis offered by bet365

decent selection!

[Fader]

Feel like I'm getting bad luck now aswell as bad tipping lol. Darcis should of had a set but threw it away with being not agressive enough. Halys was running the set until 5-5 and then just showed his age and immaturity. Frustrating but what can you do? 

4pts Donksoy to beat Mannarino  11/8 Ladbrokes
I'm going to take Donskoy here to win the 10am game. He has done pretty well in the indoor hard courts in the challenger events getting to a couple of semi finals and a qf where he lost to Raonic. 9 wins and 4 losses last year on these courts as opposed to Mannarino 7 wins and 7 losses. 

[four-leaf]

Back Paolo Lorenzi (-1.5 sets) to beat Alejandro Falla for a 7/10 stake at 2.34 with Pinnaclesports

I have to say Falla has started this season quite alright just like Lorenzi has. But what makes me pick Lorenzi here is the fact that he has a bit better game for clay then Falla does and his mentallity is more stable too and he does'nt start breaking down in the middle of matches like Falla can do from time to time. The head-2-head is also positive for Lorenzi as he beat him 7-5 6-1 here in Quito last season and in challenger Bogota semi-finals also last season turning the match around winning 3-6 6-2 6-4. The price on Pinnaclesports is also quite high for this to happen. What could make this not come in would be that Lorenzi is tired from last week but I don't think it should have any bigger effect. He had a short match against Escobar and has got some rest after the short final against Melzer in Bucaramanga.

[Fader]

painful viewing watching Donkeystoy constantly hitting the net or overhitting it. He doesn't give a toss about this game. Amateur clown. 

[Fader]

5pts G.Monfils -4.5 games to beat Roger Vasselin 11/10 Skybet
If this doesn't come i'm going to jump off a bridge. Monfils is by far the better player and last time they played on the hard he beat Vasselin 6-3 6-2. Infact all 3 head-2-heads have been won by Monfils.  Hopefully this will spur on some kind of change in fortune. 

[Fader]

5pts Carreno-Busta to beat Cervantes 2-0 6/5 Coral
These two have played eachother two times before. Both on the clay and both occasions it's finished 2-0 Busta (second time they played it was 6-4 4-0 before Cervantes retired) Busta looked in good shape against Silva winning 6-3 6-1 whilst Cervantes laboured against Pere Riba ranked 228th. Busta in 2 for me. 

[ogii55]

8 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Back Paolo Lorenzi (-1.5 sets) to beat Alejandro Falla for a 7/10 stake at 2.34 with Pinnaclesports

I have to say Falla has started this season quite alright just like Lorenzi has. But what makes me pick Lorenzi here is the fact that he has a bit better game for clay then Falla does and his mentallity is more stable too and he does'nt start breaking down in the middle of matches like Falla can do from time to time. The head-2-head is also positive for Lorenzi as he beat him 7-5 6-1 here in Quito last season and in challenger Bogota semi-finals also last season turning the match around winning 3-6 6-2 6-4. The price on Pinnaclesports is also quite high for this to happen. What could make this not come in would be that Lorenzi is tired from last week but I don't think it should have any bigger effect. He had a short match against Escobar and has got some rest after the short final against Melzer in Bucaramanga.

I was thinking a lot about this match, but in direction of Falla. Lorenzi looked almost dead against Melzer. He got just one day rest and played in the last match on Tuesday evening against very weak opponent in the face of Escobar, now he will face Falla, who is far better on clay. Still Lorenzi is far better player if he is well rested, but I am not sure if he will be ready to stay on such a busy schedule.

[CzechPunter]

Back John Millman to beat Edouard Roger-Vasselin for a 7/10 stake at 2.20 with BetVictor

Back Paul-Henri Mathieu to beat Benoit Paire for a 7/10 stake at 2.55 with Unibet

Bleh, at least Monfils could've retired with the injury. Two underdogs for me tomorrow, Millman and Mathieu. Mathieu was playing really well against Ymer, attacking tennis full of winners and not a lot of mistakes, an excellent performances really. More of that should give him a good chance against Paire, who is yet to impress anyone this year. Millman was also splendid against Benneteau, so I'm not sure why exactly he should be 2.20 against ERV. ERV did beat Monfils, but it certainly wasn't due to him playing excellent tennis, so I'll go with the better player here - and that's Millman.

Full preview here: https://www.punterslounge.com/betting-tips/tennis/atp-montpellier-day-four-2016020305

[ogii55]

5 hours ago, Fader said:

5pts Carreno-Busta to beat Cervantes 2-0 6/5 Coral
These two have played eachother two times before. Both on the clay and both occasions it's finished 2-0 Busta (second time they played it was 6-4 4-0 before Cervantes retired) Busta looked in good shape against Silva winning 6-3 6-1 whilst Cervantes laboured against Pere Riba ranked 228th. Busta in 2 for me. 

Busta was asleep in the first set. Still he showed his class in the third, but it's not ok for our bets...

[ogii55]

Brands - Troicki 3.4 Boyles

 

The power tennis of Brands seems to suits him very well in Sofia. He already knows very well the hall after three wins here. The surface is very specific, a little bit slower for indoor hard. The German's form is awesome since the start of the season. He is 10/2 winning four matches in Melbourne. He is ready to step up the level.

Troicki won a title in Brisbane, but in the past he showed that he had some problems in translation between hard and i/h. I am not sure if he will be on 100% for this match.

[ogii55]

Guys, did you saw Cilic - Zverev match. WOW, impressive performance by Zverev. Cilic was very strong as well, but Zverev played Top 5 tennis and showed strong nerves.

[sportbetting77]

Zverev plays with a raqcuet like i have