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** April Poker League Result : 1st Like2Fish, 2nd McG, 3rd andybell666 **

Monthly Naps Comp 31st December 2015


chris34

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12.30 Lingfield

Competitive looking affair where quite a few can be given a chance, Excellent Aim won last time out at Southwell and has a good record on the AW, 5lb rise and a step back up in trip might be enough to thwart him today.

Spinning Cobblers won last time out when overcoming a very troubled run, only up 2lb for that effort and he might be well treated, that said a career best required.

Ghost Train beat one of the inform Bradley runners last time out, keeping it fairly simple from a prominent position a 4lb rise looks fair, but never won off a mark this high and doesn’t strike you as one to follow up given overall profile.

Not Your Call has been well backed already and this yard have to be respected with gambles however has shown very little for this yard in 3 runs, his one win to date comes over a mile so something to prove at this trip.

Burauq looks te one to be on at a price despite a wide draw again, looked to be an improving sort for this in form yard but struggled to land a blow when trapped wide throughout last time out, should easily bounce back off same mark and looks a large price despite the wide draw, with useful apprentice taking off a handy 3lb.

 

1pt win Burauq 10/1 bet365

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12.30 Ling - Humour - win at 10/1 bog wm hill

With inspections at the jumps meetings I'm not waiting to see what's on and going straight to the AW

6F handicap

I'm looking at some new thoughts about tackling handicaps for the new year.........which basically involves looking for horses in outside of the market leaders which have been showing signs of improvement in their last couple of races and which have an angle involving something different from last time

In this case my horse has been beaten 3, 2 and 1 lengths (plus the bits) in his last 3 races with the angle being that he now drops back to his winning trip of 6F after a couple of runs at 7F

I'm thinking of avoiding last time out winners on the basis that mostly they'll have run up to their best in order to win (particularly in low grade handicaps full of exposed types).........and that it's unlikely they'll run to their best in 2 consecutive races, indeed if they've gone up in the weights they'll have to run even better

 

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Just to remind all tipsters;

 

  • Selections are first come first served on the final day of any month. Any duplicate selections will count as a loser and a point will be deducted from your total. Also posting NR's on purpose will be deemed as trying to gain an advantage against the spirit of the competition and will result in losing the point.

 

Cheers :ok

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P3.05 Snoqualmie Chief e/w 28/1 Bet365

The favourite Ice Cool is all the rage here and will be hard to beat, but this one looks a lively outsider if the favourite fails to deliver. This horses sole win from 21 starts is the only time the horse has attempted a soft ground hurdles run and that win was described as "cosily". The horse is 5lb lower now so if the horse can show anything like that form, it could be competitive once more.

 

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220 Uttoxeter: Daveron 12/1 bet365/Skybet

Finished last at Cheltenham in November but that race was like chalk and cheese to this event. In any case he wasn't pushed once his chance had gone. Previous to that was a fair 6th to Baron Alco, good form here with on for two winning again.

Dropped down to last winning mark of 118, first time in a class 4 race for 10 starts and gets soft ground which he hasn't had so far this term. Worth a bet at 12/1

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3.30 Ling - Toga Tiger - 16/1 - Betvic

C & D winner who is back from a 175 day absence here however that should not be of any concern as he has won first time after a break in the past. Trip also fine as 5 of his 10 wins have come over a mile. Won a Class 4 event just 4 starts back and runs off the same mark of 75 here and drops into a Class 5 which should also help. Would ideally like to see some market support due to the length of the absence but looks a decent price. Happy New Year everyone. 

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