Monthly Naps Comp Friday 30 Oct 2015

[infinity]

9.00 Dundalk - Carraroe Flyer 25/1 bet365/paddy/ladds

 

One of the best win rates from the field. 4 wins from 20 with a great return on level stakes as well. Has won over different distances going up from her first win on 8 furlongs in June 2014 (9 runners), another one in July 2014 over 11 furlongs (12 runners) priced 14/1, then over 15 and 16 furlongs in August (8 runners) and September  (14 runners priced 12/1). Tomorrow will be ridden for the first time by J W Kennedy who has a ROI of 82% for races with more than 16 runners.

[bluemal]

3.10 NEWMARKET: Blue Sea Of Ibrox @ 16/1 Skybet e/w thanks

Blue Sea Of Ibrox my favourite place being a Rangers Supporter so got to back this one , She was previously trained by Alan Brown but now at John Berry yard,

The 7yo has been placed twice in four starts for new yard and 5 place finishes over hurdles for old yard , In last race 11 days ago the yard brought Daniel Muscutt back in to ride as he was the one who got that 2nd place for yard and low and behold did it not just win at 20-1 at Pontefract over 1m 4f ,

She gets a 6lb penalty for that win and she goes up in distance but she's ran further in her hurdling races, they also change jockey to J F Egan

 

[arsenalfh]

2.05 Down Royal - Identity Thief @ 3/1 BetVictor

Identity Thief was a highly rated hurdler and although he was disappointing later on in the season he was running in good races. He also didn't appear to get 2m 4f last time after travelling all over his rivals and the step back to 2m will suit. The break should do him good and De Bromhead's are going pretty well at the moment so if he's fit first time out I reckon he'll be tough to beat.

[punterpete]

3.10 Newmarket

Rite to reign win 12/1 Bet365

 

 

[btugero]

12.25 Newmarket - Curriculum @ 14/1 Bet365

[Woodysway]

Uttoxeter  4.10  River Purple  win  16/1 BET365

[Jimmy2shoes]

3:35 Uttoxeter - Midnight Sapphire  1pt Win Bet @ SP

[Steve75]

1.15 Uttoxeter Suit Yourself please.

Thanks.

[Striker]

6.10 Wolverhampton-Bromyard @ 10-3 [Bet Victor] BOG

[BillyHills]

215 Wetherby: Mountain King 10/1 bet365

Cant believe the price for this one in the big race at Wetherby, he was well backed for a valuable race at Market Rasen last time and but for one bad error would have been in contention at the finish.

Not ran a bad race all his life and stable horses are going really well and often place thee horse well in race of this type. A really good EW shout but will go for the win as i need the points!

[gbettle]

2015-10-30 13:40 Weth 2m Hcap Hrd Kayf Blanco

[Sugardaddyken]

Only Mine     13:25     Newmarket      9/4 @  Bet365

[sirspread]

Solar Benny 900 dundalk 33/1 bet365

[Trotter]

2.15 Weth - Theatre Guide - win at 7/2 bog PP

Listed handicap chase around two and a half miles

My selection looks fairly handicapped now on his runs in the big Grade 3 handicaps early last season (the Hennessy and the one at Cheltenham). On the basis of those 2 runs it looks like he might be best over 3 miles plus these days but his last two wins have been at around todays trip. I also think that Wetherby suits horses who stay a bit further than the race distance because of the very long home straight which logically would put the emphasis on stamina

Has won before on seasonal debut

[DanV89]

2.35 - Newmarket - Emerahldz - 14/1 - Coral BOG

Emerahldz is just 1lb higher than her last winning mark which came in June over this trip at Thirsk. Was raised 5lbs for that win and has struggled since as a result but now back down to a more competitive mark. Usually seen in Class 2 or 3 contents and this is the first time she drops into a Class 4 since winning in June. Top trainer and top jockey in Hanagan.

[Cairnhill Diamond]

Return Ace in the 2.35 at Newmarket 1/2 pt e/w 6/1 available from a few including Boylesports and Betway please.

[Boulder5111]

N12.55 Guantoshol 40/1 Bet365

Alan King showed last week that the jumps trainers can land some decent flat races and Venetia tries her hand here. She has a fairly decent record at Newmarket as well with 3 of her 7 runners being placed. The horses sire has only had 2 runners at the course and one of those won (Full Speed off  a mark of 76). Interestingly this unexposed horse also races off 76 here today and should prefer this softer ground after finding the going too fast last time out.

 

[chris34]

 

5.40 Wolverhampton

Know Your Name won over CD on latest start, that was a narrow victory on the back of some good efforts. A 5lb rise looks a tad harsh, has previously won off same mark as todays so isnt without hope however this looks a stronger race.

Idol Deputy can never be discounted around here, he was left with too much to do last time out but finished well. Remains on a workable mark however doesnt appear much pace in this race.

Chances Are won nicely on turf latested, 6lb rise requires another career best effort to be winning this.

Supersta hasnt been done any favours in the draw but did improve last time out in the first time hood retained today and also cheekpieces refitted, looks well treated on best form and steps up in trip which looks a good move given the way he was finishing over 7f.

Exit Europe is lightly raced and unexposed winning for the first time last time out over 7f around here, clearly going the right way and one to consider.

 

1pt win Supersta 4/1 hills

[Tipsterix]

14:15 Wetherby: FAGO @ 8/1 Bet365

[mr.benn]

Wetherby 2.15  OFF THE GROUND  6/1 Paddy Power

[Soi Bongkot]

Embankment 15.45 Newmarket 33/1 betfred

[geeuppy]

5.40 wolverhampton - chances are ( 1 point win @ sp )

[Jediknight]

Newmarket 3.45 Ronnie Rocket (9/2 bet365 bog)

[bymatrix]

Carraroe Flyer 9.05 Dundalk , 20/1 Stan James & Sporting Bet

[Rainbow]

3.35 Uttoxeter  ISABELLE'S PRINCESS  1pt win 50/1 Totesport BOG

[robertob]

7.30 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)

Aiden O'Brien has two very strong contenders in a race he has won twice in the past. Hit A Bomb is probably the strongest candidate of the two Aiden saddles -  the colt scooted home at Dundalk when last seen after he got off the mark on his debut. Clearly a very talented individual, he would be very hard to beat if he hadn't been drawn in the car park. Ryan Moore will have to work his magic. It won't be easy.

Soft ground is detrimental to the chance of Ballydoyle's second string, Shogun. He drowned at his only try in really soft conditions, however looked special when winning a maiden at the Curragh on good to yielding ground - similar to what is expected at Keeneland's turf track today. 

Whether he can perform on this sort of ground to a level that is required to be competitive in in top race like this remains to be seen - but connections hailed this colt as a special one not so long ago. I really liked his performance at Longchamp earlier this month when he finished  strongly in a race he meat plenty of in-running trouble. He wasn't far beaten in the end behind Cymric, who finished a close runner-up that day and is one of the leading fancies here again.

Shogun has a good draw and I would hope to see him being ridden positively as the trip shouldn't be a problem. He looks a colt we haven't seen the best of yet and I believe he is underestimated. 

Shogun @ 12/1 Coral

[BillyHills]

3 winners and a place today so far

Ken 5/2, Arsenal 3/1, Chris 4/1 & Diamond 3rd 7/1

 

Laters

9.00 Dundalk - Carraroe Flyer 25/1 bet365/paddy/ladds

 

One of the best win rates from the field. 4 wins from 20 with a great return on level stakes as well. Has won over different distances going up from her first win on 8 furlongs in June 2014 (9 runners), another one in July 2014 over 11 furlongs (12 runners) priced 14/1, then over 15 and 16 furlongs in August (8 runners) and September  (14 runners priced 12/1). Tomorrow will be ridden for the first time by J W Kennedy who has a ROI of 82% for races with more than 16 runners.

Solar Benny 900 dundalk 33/1 bet365

Carraroe Flyer 9.05 Dundalk , 20/1 Stan James & Sporting Bet

7.30 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 1)

Aiden O'Brien has two very strong contenders in a race he has won twice in the past. Hit A Bomb is probably the strongest candidate of the two Aiden saddles -  the colt scooted home at Dundalk when last seen after he got off the mark on his debut. Clearly a very talented individual, he would be very hard to beat if he hadn't been drawn in the car park. Ryan Moore will have to work his magic. It won't be easy.

Soft ground is detrimental to the chance of Ballydoyle's second string, Shogun. He drowned at his only try in really soft conditions, however looked special when winning a maiden at the Curragh on good to yielding ground - similar to what is expected at Keeneland's turf track today. 

Whether he can perform on this sort of ground to a level that is required to be competitive in in top race like this remains to be seen - but connections hailed this colt as a special one not so long ago. I really liked his performance at Longchamp earlier this month when he finished  strongly in a race he meat plenty of in-running trouble. He wasn't far beaten in the end behind Cymric, who finished a close runner-up that day and is one of the leading fancies here again.

Shogun has a good draw and I would hope to see him being ridden positively as the trip shouldn't be a problem. He looks a colt we haven't seen the best of yet and I believe he is underestimated. 

Shogun @ 12/1 Coral

[bymatrix]

Sorry chaps it seems my selection in the 9pm is a non runner , can  have Standinthesunlight 8.30 Dundalk instead please , 22/1 Stan James

 

Thanks

[thebestthere]

8.30 Dundalk Fast On

[infinity]

Replacement for NR

 

Same race 9.00 Dundalk Swift Harry 33/1 sky bet

 

Decent average prize money. Has won in July over 16 furlongs with SP 16/1 from 16 runners. Last 3 races has been priced at 33/1 and twice at 50/1 which I found interesting because Kodama has a high win SP average and 27% ROI lifetime (if my numbers are correct). He might be believing that the gelding can win it as a huge underdog.