antogz Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Rodriguez has said in his quotes after the stages that he has been saving his energy for today and tomorrow and that he wants to win a stage in the alps. He also added he would go in the break if it was going to be big. Obviously he hasn't gone in the break so he thinks it wasn't worth it. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum Well the quotes I read didn't say that, he said he wasn't going to go in the break today but would try tomorrow. He also said his form wasn't good enough to win a stage in the Alps but his form will be better next week and he hopes to win a stage there. The first part has came through anyway. In fairness you can take there quotes with a pinch of salt sometimes. Bardet has said in 2 different interviews, firstly he was going to try and attack today on the final climb and in another he said he would just track the main GC contenders today. I suppose team tactics and all that can change a persons outlook. Aside it will be touch and go whether this break will stay away, Feillu, Kadri and Visconti will be the strongest. Feillu has to be clear favourite though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Well I was reading the quotes on the official website which I guess were taken after the jersey presentations. Apparently his team are chasing the break down so clearly he must fancy it today. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Navarro out and looked rather unwell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Acevedo also out and he didn't look well either. Seems like there could be something going through the riders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th The heat is getting to them I'd say, don't be surprised to see Pinot or Porte suffering today as they wouldn't be fond of the heat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th The heat is getting to them I'd say' date=' don't be surprised to see Pinot or Porte suffering today as they wouldn't be fond of the heat.[/quote'] You were right about Porte, he has blown big time. Nibali different class again, wide open for 2nd and 3rd though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Can't for the life of me understand that stage. Katusha chase down the break which was good for me as it at least gave Majka a chance to win but they did so with Rodriguez having no form whatsoever. Strange behavior and given how much Nibali wants to win stages too I think that takes away any real reason to bet on the breaks over the next few stages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Can't for the life of me understand that stage. Katusha chase down the break which was good for me as it at least gave Majka a chance to win but they did so with Rodriguez having no form whatsoever. Strange behavior and given how much Nibali wants to win stages too I think that takes away any real reason to bet on the breaks over the next few stages. Agree. As I said above with them chasing I thought I had a cracking chance, but he was struggling from a long way out. Backed Nibali at 5/2 for KOTM in running as think he has a great chance of winning that as well now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I agree what were Katusha at, Astana were willing to let the break go for the stage win. My man Feillu was in it,he just stopped riding when he knew he was going to be got. He was trading 3rd favourite behind Nibali and Valverde for a good while, I've no doubt he would have won the stage, real frustrating. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 18, 2014 Share Posted July 18, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I agree what were Katusha at' date=' Astana were willing to let the break go for the stage win. My man Feillu was in it,he just stopped riding when he knew he was going to be got. He was trading 3rd favourite behind Nibali and Valverde for a good while, I've no doubt he would have won the stage, real frustrating.[/quote'] Did you lay off? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th So let's just look at this. Instead of Feillu or De Marchi winning yesterday's stage and having the KoM leads, Rodriguez is now behind Vincenzo Nibali instead. With several more MTFs to come including one HC which the GC riders will likely contest. I've criticised Sagan a little for his tactics but at least he was attempting to win. What exactly Rodriguez was doing yesterday baffles me even more. Completely rode against his own interests. Annoys me no end as it's very hard now to anaylze a stage when you'll have a team like Katusha riding against their own self interest. Rafal Majka now also a potential KoM winner were he to target it as he could go into breaks and also climb with Nibali on GC finishes. If Rodriguez manages not to be a complete idiot today he'll join the break and then that break should win. However if he misses it then whose to say Katusha won't chase it down for Nibali? Most of the odds look correct for a stage where the break should win, but again, Katusha factor just makes it that less certain. Willing to take a chance again on John Gadret (200), Peter Velits (330) and Nicholas Roche (27). Think all are overpriced for a stage where the break would succeed but no real confidence about anything other than the fact that even if Rodriguez were to make the break, he surely can't win. Not comfortable taking any of the more likely riders at shorter odds like Nieve or Rogers as I just don't have enough confidence the break will be allowed to go by Katusha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th No Addpea didn't lay off I should have but at the time wasn't in a position to do so. Before yesterday I taught this stage would be won by the GC favourites, not now after yesterday's fiasco. I think someone from a strong break will take it. Nieve has to be the big favourite as he looks very strong at the moment. My other picks from the break are Schleck, Gastauer, Horner and Feillu. They are all climbing well and are down on GC so will be no threat to Nibali. 1pt e/w Nieve 12/1 betfred. 1pt e/w Schleck 66/1 betfred 1pt e/w Horner 80/1 bet 365 1pt e/w Filleu 66/1 betfred 1pt e/w Gastaeur 125/1 boyles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I think Majka is going for the KOM jersey, the way he jumped Konig at the finish suggest so after wheel sucking his way the whole way up. 2pt win Majka KOM 16/1 Boyles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th So let's just look at this. Instead of Feillu or De Marchi winning yesterday's stage and having the KoM leads' date=' Rodriguez is now behind Vincenzo Nibali instead. With several more MTFs to come including one HC which the GC riders will likely contest. I've criticised Sagan a little for his tactics but at least he was attempting to win. What exactly Rodriguez was doing yesterday baffles me even more. Completely rode against his own interests. Annoys me no end as it's very hard now to anaylze a stage when you'll have a team like Katusha riding against their own self interest.[/quote'] ^this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Pretty strong group of 17 including Rodriguez. Will be annoyed if he wins today and I am not on him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Pretty strong group of 17 including Rodriguez. Will be annoyed if he wins today and I am not on him. It can be fair annoying at times when you see someone in the break that you would have backed. I'd love to see Rodriguez win but this is Nieve to lose unless Majka does something. I've gone heavy into the 5/2 with Boyles in running. I'd have him a lot shorter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Pretty strong group of 17 including Rodriguez. Will be annoyed if he wins today and I am not on him. Feel the same about Majka. Given how poor Rodriguez was yesterday it's hard to see him winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Fuck me. Nibali has to go and chase down Majka yesterday but doesn't today. Does my god damn fucking head in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Load up on Kittel tomorrow 10/11 is a great price he wins simple as. Coquard is 40/1 with PPhave to take some of that. He looks strong and won't be far off a place. 8pt win Kittel 10/11 >betfred 1pt e/w Coquard 40/1 >PP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 19, 2014 Share Posted July 19, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I too have backed Kittel and he is odds against on Betfair. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Kittel crashed at the beginning of Stage 13. Didn't sound too serious but we've not had a chance to observe him since the incident. Demare was reportedly suffering from diarrhea yesterday and was seen being attended to by the race doctor. I rate his potential to upset the bunch but today is not the day to look for it, particularly given his poor positioning. Big joker in today's stage is crosswinds. Reportedly not too bad to start with but expected to get worse as the stage develops. Often when it is so widely expected the stage stays together as it's not a surprise, but with so many frenchmen high up overall it wouldn't really surprise me if Pinot or Bardet get caught out. If they do, we'll see a proper race today. Best team at attacking the crosswinds is Omega Pharma. They've got no GC to ride for but if Kittel and Greipel get left behind they might very well ride for Renshaw. Also, if it's a heavily reduced peloton that contests the sprint and Renshaw isn't there, or if maybe Kittel/Greipel are but their trains are not, I could see Tony Martin going on the attack knowing there won't be teams left to chase. Of course, a bunch sprint still likely, but not seen Kittel after his crash and Greipel's positioning seems poor this tour. Mark Renshaw @ 27 Betfair Tony Martin @ 90 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I thought it might be worth bringing the Winner Without Nibali & Podium Finish markets to people's attention today. They're interesting, wide open markets with no movement expected for the next 48 hours. 3 back-to-back mountain stages (1 descent finish, 2 mountain top finishes) left before a transition day & the final time trial. +4'37" Valverde - 9/4 w/o Nibali (various) - 6/5 podium (Betfair) +4'50" Bardet - 11/2 w/o Nibali (Boylesports) - 7/4 podium (Bet365) +5'06" Pinot - 9/2 w/o Nibali (Bet365) - 5/4 podium (Bet365) +5'49" Van Garderen - 3/1 w/o Nibali (various) - 11/8 podium (PaddyPower) +6'08" Peraud - 12/1 w/o Nibali (various) - 4/1 podium (Paddypower) Mollema (+8'33") & Konig (+9'32") are next, and 18/1 & 25/1 respectively to podium w/BetVictor. Any thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th We don't know what effect the mountains have had on the condition of the big sprinters, plus there's a chance of crosswinds, so I think Kristoff @8/1 e/w (4 places) w/Betfred is worth a shot today. He's already won a stage & been in the frame a few times, plus he's shown ability to cope when the sprinters have been tired. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I'm on Mollema for a Top 3 finish (pre-cobbles stage) and can tell you he's no chance. Consistently losing 1min or more on every mountain stage and lacks the time trial skills to make up that difference. Bardet a horrible time traillist and needs to make up time to be any chance. Valverde rides a solid ITT but lost a stack of time yesterday. If he can lose no more than a min to those guys over the coming stage he should be okay but I wouldn't rule out further time losses. Van Garderen a strong ITT'er and I think should make it to the podium but that's with me assuming Valverde loses more time in the mountains. Forced to bet I'd say Pinot because I think he makes enough time up in the mountains to hold off Van Garderen and Valverde in the time trial. But I wouldn't want to bet on that today. If there's one man I can see being caught out in the cross winds it is Pinot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th We don't know what effect the mountains have had on the condition of the big sprinters' date=' plus there's a chance of crosswinds, so I think [b']Kristoff @8/1 e/w (4 places) w/Betfred is worth a shot today. He's already won a stage & been in the frame a few times, plus he's shown ability to cope when the sprinters have been tired. Well done. Incredible finish that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Well done. Incredible finish that. Yeah, what a final! Cheers Crouchy. 3 winners out of 4 stages at 8/1, 20/1 & 50/1 for me... If my calculations are right, that leaves me a mere infinity points of profit behind you for the tour! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Yeah, what a final! Cheers Crouchy. 3 winners out of 4 stages at 8/1, 20/1 & 50/1 for me... If my calculations are right, that leaves me a mere infinity points of profit behind you for the tour! It's been a great start to the tour for me but I'm afraid the last week has been absolute rubbish. Majka really hurt, but hopefully can find at least one more. No idea what happens on the next stage. Would ordinarily say a break but teams seem to love pointlessly chasing down the break. Katusha first day and then Net App tried the second day. The fact it's a descent finish means you don't have to beat Nibali up the mountain to win, which could incentivise the lesser GC talents' teams to chase. Pierre Rolland @ 41 Bet365 Not got the legs of the Giro but is obviously looking to attack. After the rest day could be a good time to do it as he should have recovered well. Leopold Konig @ 67 Bet365 NetApp are obviously hunting for a stage win and Konig won't be marked by Nibali. Attacking the last part of the climb and descending away is his best chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
impintu80 Posted July 20, 2014 Share Posted July 20, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Antogz, Crouch Potato...for you who will win KOM? Majka, Rodriguez or Nibali? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th It depends on if Majka is going for it or not. I haven't seen any quotes one way or another but my impression is Tinkoff still prefer stage wins. But if he wants it I think it's Majka's to lose. Should mention though I'm extremely annoyed at myself for not having identified Majka as a candidate when Contador crashed. I feel I've terribly handled any betting on Majka this tour and wouldn't really trust my own opinion of him. I can't personally see how Rodriguez wins it any way other than luck. 2 MTFs to come and even in a break I'd question his ability to win atop them. Should probably qualify that if Nibali really wanted it, he'd obviously win it. Wildcard seem to be Netapp Endura. They pointlessly tried to chase the break on Stage 14 and if they keep that up they'll just bring it back for Nibali to take the double points. Also worth noting both Purito and Majka were in same break on Stage 14 and Majka happily let Purito take the points. May have just been saving energy for final finish but not sold he really cares about winning it or that Tinkoff would happily sacrifice chance of a stage win for it. tl;dr - Majka if he wants, but no real idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 21, 2014 Share Posted July 21, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Anyone know exactly what happened to Kittel yesterday. Seemed very odd after his team had done some of the donkey work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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