Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

I can't seem to find much info on the severity of Sagan's crash today. I did see him drop back to the medical car for a bit. He still managed to finish fifth' date=' but the greater impact can often come the next day. Definitely something to look out for with him being the favourite for stage 7.[/quote'] I heard the end of an interview with him and he said he came down twice and that he wasn't even sprinting and still came 5th. He already has more than half the points he got last year. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Greipel seemed to get form out of nowhere today nice win for him. The signs were ominous for Kittel after scraping victory in stage 5 and his crash yesterday, it all pointed to him not winning today. Contador is best priced 6/4 now so he is being backed again, favourite it a few places. Tomorrow we have another fairly flat stage but very long. I think a breakaway would have a very good chance to stay away tomorrow, but again it comes down to who is in it, what teams and how many. Today's break was never going to stay away as it wasn't very strong and very short of numbers. If a strong break goes away tomorrow it has a real chance. Caanondale and Katusha look like the only teams that would want to chase it. I can't see any of the GC teams having interest with it being so long and the mountains coming. Giant, Lotto or OPQS won't be bothered either. I think the french teams have to try something tomorrow so look for guys like Gautier, B Feillu, Vichot, Lemoine, Pineau and Fonseca to have a go. If a group of around 10 strong riders get away they have a chance. If the break gets caught we won't know what type of rider will win it, will it be the good climbing sprinter or the strong aggresive rider. Sagan is clear favourite tomorrow, but I think he is very short myself, I'd give Kristoff the same chance as him. Unless Sagan does one hell of a decent I can't see him dropping Kristoff and Kristoff will beat him in a sprint. Kristoff seems to be getting better and better, he loves these long stages and looks to be in excellent form at the moment. Of the sprinters I can't see Geipel or Kittel getting over the hill, Demare and Degenkolb seem to be injured, Coquard, Renshaw, Dumoulin,Rojas and Navardauskas should be thereabouts. I think the big dangers to Sagan and Kristoff lie in the aggresive strong riders, Gerrans would be the big danger but we don't know how the injury is. I think Cancellara, Albasini, Gallopin, Van Avermet, Slagter and Bakelants could be the other dangers. I don't think the GC riders will go for this. At triple the price of Sagan Kristoff has to be the bet. Outside of the decending he can do what ever Sagan can do on this stage and at the moment I think he is the fastest sprinter of the two. I think Rojas could go well too,he should get over the hills and he always has a good sprint after a long day. The same can be said for Navardauskas who is worth a bet as well. I was looking for Haussler in the betting and he is a huge 200/1 with bet 365,he has to be worth a bet at that price. He will get over the climb as well and not only is he aggresive he can sprint as well. I'm going to fish for more info on Gerrans injury because he will be a massive player tomorrow if fit. Recommendations. 2.5 pts e/w Kristoff 15/2 skybet paying 4 1pt e/w Rojas 50/1 boyles paying 5 1pt e/w Bakelants 66/1betfred paying 4 0.5pts Navardaukas 40/1 skybet 0.25pts e/w Haussler 200/1 bet 365.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Wasn't Haussler on the deck at least twice on Wednesday? Gerrans still seems to be struggling although maybe he is trying to save himself for today's stage. Giant have already admitted they won't be going for it today, although with Griepal winning they should get more help chasing breaks in future sprint stages. Should also help the price on Kittel.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Once for definite I've lost track nearly at this stage who was or wasn't. He is half the odds everywhere else so took a gamble on him. Tomorrow has so many permutations most of the peleton could win it. Boyles are paying 1st 5 tomorrow which is unusual. Gerrans at 20/1 could be a smashing price come tomorrow evening.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Demare was involved in Sagan's crash and then got himself caught in the crosswinds. Bad stage for me and a reminder of why I shouldn't be betting on sprinters Onto today's stage and it is very hard to call. Degenkolb injury I feel is significant and there are several factors that are or may be in play for a break to succeed. Here's some random thoughts: 1) Few teams have sprinters who can be there. Cannondale and Katusha do. Demare is injured. Degenkolb is injured. It's unlikely Greipel can be there at the end. Rojas might have competed 2 years ago but not so much now. This matters because you need teams willing to work together to chase down the break. Are there enough teams, because... 2) It is a long stage. 234.5km to be exact. It's a longer time to have to ride and with fewer teams to do it. A team like Orica may help chase for one of their riders in place of a sprinter's team though. 3) Even if the break is caught, it will be hard to control the race. Those climbs at the end, if it is groupo compacto, will offer the perfect launching pad for a rider to attack. After all the chasing in the 220km or so before hand, will Cannondale or Katusha still have the men to chase down those fresh opportunists? 4) Nibali might be happy to lose yellow to a non-contender. I was keen for Albasini this stage, but not at all at the odds on offer. I'd still back him over Gerrans though, who looks too battered to contend today IMO. Had a break been more assured of succeeding, guys like Chavanel and Voeckler would appeal, but at current odds it's a marginal pass. As I suspect a lot of attacks IF the peleton comes to the final 10km together, I couldn't possibly back Sagan or Kristoff at the odds on offer. Selections (All with Betfair) Lars Ytting Bak @ 320 - Stage winner at Grand Tour level and looks too long considering he's a powerful, strong rider, which gives him an advantage in trying to win from a breakaway composition. Super appealing odds. Giovanni Visconti @ 180 - Feel that Movistar may look to put someone in the break as Valverde should have a relatively trouble free day. Feel that the profile is such that Visconti would fancy his chances if he were to make it into a winning break. Jan Bakelants @ 100 - OPQS very aggressive since Cavendish departed and he has good form, as shown by his stage win at the Dauphine (From a break). Tom Jelte Slagter @ 95 - Unlikely he'll going into a stage long break but in the event the peloton is together at the front towards the end I can see him attacking on one of the climbs. Has a decent turn of speed and I feel that the profile isn't too dissimilar to the stages he won at Paris-Nice, albeit with less climbs. The added advantage I feel with Bak and Bakelandts is that if they don't make the break but the peloton contests the win, they are two who could attack on the descents.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th So the break looks doomed with only 6 riders in it and Cannondale in control. Obviously this makes Sagan a big favourite but I still maintain there should be opportunities for strong riders to attack on the final climb or descent. One rider who I think might try is Geraint Thomas. Porte should be safe enough over a cat 4 and having lost their leader a stage win would be a great way to bounce back and Thomas has the power to do it. In play: Geraint Thomas @ 130

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Selections nowhere near today. Disappointed Slagter didn't feature. Question the tactics of Sagan there, and Van Avermaet given TJVG was chasing. On the GC front Talansky crashed, will be interested to know how bad. It was a heavy fall from the looks of things though. Van den Broeck lost more time than Van Garderen too, though I did see he was at the back before. I think he just struggled today.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I think Sagan thought he had to go with an attack today given he missed out on Sunday by not following as he knows people don't want to drag him up to anyone attacking. He then saved enough when it was obvious they were going to get caught and let's be fair he missed out by the smallest of margins. Very surprised by Van den Broeck, but maybe that crazy crash on Wednesday is affecting him. Talanksy's crash was bloody stupid and he only has himself to blame. He seemed ok and got up straight away so hopefully he is fine.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th With OPQS there I thought they would chase Van Avermaet but Sagan is in a damned if he does or doesn't situation. Talansky blaming Gerrans for his crash, claiming he was trying to get out of the way of the sprinters. Haven't seen it a second time but on first look he just put himself in a dumb position. Keen on learning more of the crashes and conditions of the riders. I believe some riders crashed before Talansky, I think Tangert was one. Also bemused b y the placing of Christophe Riblon. Would have had him for tomorrow's stage but I think he's completely lacking the form.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Yeah there was a bit of a pile up coming round the corner. Can't be many riders who haven't crashed. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I can see Contador getting his first few seconds back on Nibali tomorrow, that finish doesn't suit him at all. I don't understand how Valverde is that much of a favourite over Contador. The last time they met on a similar climb in Pais Vasco this year Contador left him for dead. Now it will be closer tomorrow but I would have Contador favourite for tomorrow. I took some of that 10/1 from PP. I taught I'd never see Rodriguez 16/1 for a stage like this. If was on his game he would favourite, there are too many doubts about him though to back him. I hate repeating myself but if a strong break form they should go all the way tomorrow. I'd like to see people like Spilak, Cherel, Kadri, Morkov, Kiryienka, Iglinskiy, Reichenback, Hanson, Chavenal, Roelandts, Langeveld give it a go. A combination of a few of those would have a great chance. I know few of those are not going great but it most be so they can get in a break.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I've changed my mind on Rodriguez, he is 16/1 with Boyles paying 5, I had to back him.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I clearly got Rodriguez badly wrong for a top 10 finish as he has either struggled or lost time on purpose. I think it might be a bit of both and think we won't see the best of him until the final week of the Tour myself.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th The more I think about it I give the breakaway a right chance. I gave my list above of who could be in it so my bets. 0.5pts e/w Spilak 40/1 boyles 0.5pts e/w Kadri 100/1 boyles 0.5pts e/w Hansen 80/1 boyles 0.5pts e/w Trofimov 100/1 boyles paying 5. 2pts e/w Contador 10/1 PP 1pt e/w Rodriguez 16/1 boyles

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Jurgen Van den Broeck was apparently held up in a crash so didn't lose any time yesterday. Still, that's twice in 3 days he has been on the ground, much like Van Garderen. Wouldn't be surprised if that shows at some point. Today is a day where I only wish to back riders for the break. After such hard racing, what is the point of chasing this break down if there is no GC threat in the break? It's not certain the break succeeds but it's a better than 50% chance IMO. Agree that this finish is for Purito, but I have been closely watching both he and Riblon as potential KoM bets (or top ups in Riblon's case). For mine neither are right and both are losing too much time and getting dropped too early to be in the kind of condition required to win today. Only my opinion of course but it wouldn't surprise me if Purito made the break and wasn't able to win it. Michael Albisini @ 29 Betfair Simon Spilak @ 46 Betfair Brice Feillu @ 80 Betfair Blel Kadri @ 120 Betfair Rein Taaramae @ 140 Betfair John Gadret @ 300 Betfair All riders who I think may look for the break and have a certain degree of climbing pedigree to potentially win from it. Also, because i believe there is a chance Spilak enters the break: Simon Spilak King of the Mountains @ 126 Bet365 - He's far enough down that he could fall into this competition with a high showing today.

[disposal bag]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th First of all thanks for this Nice forum. tour de france is also great for live betting. Doing this for years, for example yesterday 10 km for the finish we already saw kwiatkowski working for trentin and albasini for gerrans. today stage i will take a few long shots with a good finish. rodriquez and riblon still not in good form and i will not touch them. Costa odds 48 betfair 1 point fuglsang odds 100 betfair 0.5 points Nieve odds 110 betfair 0.5 points konig odds 120 betfair 0.5 points peraud odds 160 betfair 0.5 points

[9coconuts]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Not truly mountainous climbs today, but the elite GC group's pace will be intense over the 3 climbs at the end, so I'm guessing any successful escape will have to go very early and with a large number of riders. Guessing the tempo will make a late break very difficult. If so, we're looking for a climber good enough to beat the rest of the breakaway, yet welcome enough in the break (would they bother trying to break knowing they'd have to race e.g. Spilak at the end?). Having anyone slightly too high in the overall could doom a large break, as there are still 30 or 40 riders who wouldn't be allowed to go a really long way up the road. I'm mostly following the Potato's outsiders for the break, but I have some other picks too: Fuglsang @150 (Betfair) - If the break fails, I can see other riders doing the work, but Fuglsang being free to go for the finishing sprint from a tiny elite group at the end. Appealing price. Kiryienka @510 (Betfair) - I guess he's most likely to look after Porte, but don't think Sky can just sit back all tour & ride for only a podium chance. Not sure if his fall damaged him, but he's way back in the GC, and his class + the price means I'll take the chance on him joining a break & them riding with him. Rui Costa @42 (Betfair) - Just worth a small pop as a cyclist with the ability to steal the win at the very end if the very best riders have given up on trying to distance each other.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Not sure I can take him at current odds but worth noting that Jelte Slagter has talked about targetting this stage. He mentions the team's focus is on Talansky but if he has the chance he wants to go for it.

[disposal bag]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Slagter is saying the same in the dutch press but his form the first days wasn't that good. Don't think the odds on him to win have any value betfair odds are 27. But 9 years ago another dutchman won this stage, weening beating Klöden :)

[9coconuts]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

Michael Albisini @ 29 Betfair Simon Spilak @ 46 Betfair Brice Feillu @ 80 Betfair Blel Kadri @ 120 Betfair Rein Taaramae @ 140 Betfair John Gadret @ 300 Betfair

Gadret @260 (Betfair) (now) is the one I really like of these [not that my track record compares to CP's! lol]. Movistar seem to be riding well, so maybe Izaguirre @460 (Betfair)as well.

[9coconuts]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Nibali @32 (Betfair) - Don't know why he's trading at over 30. He's done nothing to suggest he might not be the strongest rider in the race. He might want to take another stage & make a psychological point to Contador at the very end of the stage if he can.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I know Nibali has been strong but that finish doesn't suit him at all whatever contador might say. He will do very well not to lose time today. If chavenal and tepstra had a couple of extra bodies I'd be fully confident of the break staying away, now I'm not so sure.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Apparently Talansky was dropped early on but re-joined. Unless he had a mechanical issue I can see him losing minutes today.

[gurudave]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

Jurgen Van den Broeck was apparently held up in a crash so didn't lose any time yesterday. Still, that's twice in 3 days he has been on the ground, much like Van Garderen. Wouldn't be surprised if that shows at some point. Today is a day where I only wish to back riders for the break. After such hard racing, what is the point of chasing this break down if there is no GC threat in the break? It's not certain the break succeeds but it's a better than 50% chance IMO. Agree that this finish is for Purito, but I have been closely watching both he and Riblon as potential KoM bets (or top ups in Riblon's case). For mine neither are right and both are losing too much time and getting dropped too early to be in the kind of condition required to win today. Only my opinion of course but it wouldn't surprise me if Purito made the break and wasn't able to win it. Michael Albisini @ 29 Betfair Simon Spilak @ 46 Betfair Brice Feillu @ 80 Betfair Blel Kadri @ 120 Betfair Rein Taaramae @ 140 Betfair John Gadret @ 300 Betfair All riders who I think may look for the break and have a certain degree of climbing pedigree to potentially win from it. Also, because i believe there is a chance Spilak enters the break: Simon Spilak King of the Mountains @ 126 Bet365 - He's far enough down that he could fall into this competition with a high showing today.

Lovely Crouch just lovely!!

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Superb once again CP. I always think stages like this are a bit of a lottery and I don't like to get involved, but fair play for finding your 3rd big price winner.

[kevshat]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th You'll be banned from betfair at this rate Crouchy :lol. Excellent work once again fella. Top work by Antogz too for getting 1st and 2nd. Excellent stuff chaps :clap

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

The more I think about it I give the breakaway a right chance. I gave my list above of who could be in it so my bets. 0.5pts e/w Spilak 40/1 boyles 0.5pts e/w Kadri 100/1 boyles 0.5pts e/w Hansen 80/1 boyles 0.5pts e/w Trofimov 100/1 boyles paying 5. 2pts e/w Contador 10/1 PP 1pt e/w Rodriguez 16/1 boyles

I had him first, CP was only copying me, only joking great that we had him and well done CP on number 3.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Sorry missed antogz getting Kadri as well so well done there and getting the e/w on Contador. Rodriguez looks badly out of shape still.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Cheers lads. Great work too Antogz! E/W bets on 1st and 2nd :clap

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

Superb once again CP. I always think stages like this are a bit of a lottery and I don't like to get involved' date=' but fair play for finding your 3rd big price winner.[/quote'] I like to equate these stages to playing Roulette. Most guys are a 35:1 chance, but if you're paying attention you can get some riders at 50:1. It's value, but still a 35:1 chance. Having an excellent run of luck this year to be fair. Still lots of opportunities ahead but trying to work myself out for tomorrow. Over the last 40km or so today, on just 2x Cat 2 and 1x Cat 3, the peloton made up 9mins and reeled in all bar 1 breakaway contender. This makes me question how successful a break will be tomorrow, yet at the same time, Monday's stage makes me think that the big boys will want to save some energy. Logic says a break should succeed but the way the peloton rode today makes me think twice.