Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

So' date=' no side-on replay of the finish was broadcast (at least on ITV4), and yet even from the front-on replay, it was clear that Coquard finished 3rd, not Renshaw. 3rd was awarded to Renshaw though. Did everyone else see that?[/quote'] Given the technology involved you can be certain the result will be right. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th What is going on with Griepal? Not involved again today and it left it very easy for Kittel who when passing me at 450m to go was in the perfect position and I didn't think he would be beaten from there. Surprised everyone was trying to take him on and an 8/13 winner is better than a big price value loser. Did wonder if Renshaw might give it a go today but wasn't expecting him to finish 3rd which was a great effort and already looking like Sagan won't be beaten for Green.

[9coconuts]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Oh, I see - Renshaw was hidden behind the front two in the front-on shot. I was thinking Kristoff was Renshaw :p

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Have backed Kittel again at 1.57 on Betfair and also had a nibble on Coquard to be in the top 3 also on Betfair. Must admit Coquard is a new name for me, but he has been impressive and would have been top 3 today had he not got himself in a poor position. Might be that the team support him more tomorrow. Be interesting to see what Griepal does tomorrow, but he looks badly out of form and will his team really do the donkey work again for him after two disappointments?

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Kittel won well today, but Lotto shouldn't have chased the break down for Giant. It will be very hard for a break to stay away tomorrow, but I think the other sprinter teams should try a different tactic. It would be no harm for Lotto, Katusha, FDJ, OPQS, Europcar and Trek to try and get a rider a bit down on GC in the break. The GC teams won't be too interested in chasing it down leaving Giant to do all the work. I can't see it happening but it could work. I hope other teams leave Giant to do the chasing tomorrow and burn up a few men. Kittel looks unbeatable in these type sprints and if it is a sprint finish tomorrow he should win. I think Sagan done excellent today in getting Kittel's wheel and I can see the same happening again tomorrow. He is excellent at this, we saw today that he finished about 3 bike lenghts in front of 3rd. He has shown very good finishing speed and is worth a shot e/w tomorrow. I'm going to give Coquard another chance tomorrow. If he got a bit more help from his team mates today he would have been a lot closer. He was down in about 8th place starting his sprint and still finished a fast finishing 4th. He passed out Oss and Demare early on and then had the speed to beat off Kristoff. He is clearly very fast and if he can get a bit more help from his team he should go close. 1.5pts e/w Sagan 11/1 bet 365 1pt e/w Coquard 22/1 generally.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Greipel manager has came out and said he was afraid of the slick road and braked coming into the final corner losing his lead out man Henderson in the process. That explains that. My head scratching of Sagan's rather odd finish to stage 3 was explained as well. When he saw Nibali attack he said he wasn't going to chase him down and was letting the GC guys do it. He said he wasn't going to drag all the GC guys back to Nibali. To make it worse he said he felt very good and said he could have won the stage. Pissed off over that.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I can't help thinking backing people to finish top 3 is better than backing them e/w. Granted you miss out on the big win should they win, but it is going to take something very odd happening for them to win the stage.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

Greipel manager has came out and said he was afraid of the slick road and braked coming into the final corner losing his lead out man Henderson in the process. That explains that. My head scratching of Sagan's rather odd finish to stage 3 was explained as well. When he saw Nibali attack he said he wasn't going to chase him down and was letting the GC guys do it. He said he wasn't going to drag all the GC guys back to Nibali. To make it worse he said he felt very good and said he could have won the stage. Pissed off over that.

Not really sagans fault though. He actually attacked but nobody would ride with him and basically everyone was against him. The real blame lies with Cannondale who burned too many men chasing Rolland and then left Sagan isolated and forced to literally chase every move if he wanted to win. Hope Kittel wins again today. With Cav out I feel if Kittel dominates so much it will mean other sprint teams will chase less and maybe we will get more breakaways to succeed in the transitional flat stages.

[9coconuts]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I see no reason to change from siding with Coquard to finish in the top 3 again today. He might struggle with positioning again, but there again, he might get lucky, and the odds are favourable given that he seems to have the raw speed. I'm surprised his odds haven't contracted much since yesterday, actually. Odds on Betfair exchange's top 3 market are shorter at the moment though, so I'm going with Coquard @22/1 e/w (3 places) w/Betfair Sportsbook. I understand the argument that it's better to bet on a place, but I do see him winning the stage more than 1 time in 23, so I'm happy to gamble given the relative odds currently available. Watch out today because a lot of firms are only offering 1/5 the odds on the first 3 places. Boylesports and Betfair Sportsbook are showing 1/4 odds at the moment.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Not helpful for betting at all but thought this might be interesting. Gives a bit more insight as to how Giant Shimano train works. http://www.teamgiantshimano.com/2014/06/team-giant-shimano-sprint-formations-explained/

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I Probably didn't explain the Sagan thing right to be honest. What he was saying in a nutshell was if anyone else bar Nibali attacked he would have chased them down and attacked them. Since he was a friend of his he wasn't going to chase him down and was waiting for one of the GC guys to do it. When it didn't happen he said fuck them I'm not doing it. I agree though on his team making a right hash of it. I'd disagree about the point on backing the place, you have to back for the win in my opinion. Anything could happen Kittel today. The difference in prices is minimal anyway so backing for the win makes since to me. Anyway most casual punters who will be looking at these pages are looking for a nice priced 1st place winner not a top 3 at minimal odds.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th But most of the time you are going to lose your win stake so to me it makes little sense. No point in backing a big price loser. It makes little sense to oppose kittel in my view. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th You'd make a bigger profit backing Demare and Coquard today e/w than for the place. If you backed Sagan and Greipel it would be a minimal profit the other way. Since Sagan and Greipel look to be his main rivals who might beat him, it makes sense to back them for the win as well. Also most casual fans who look at this won't have a betfair or bwin account so the place bet is irrelevant any way.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I see the liquidity on the top 3 market on betfair for today is a joke anyway.

[thecurlyone1]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th some excellent stuff going on here guys :clap

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

I see the liquidity on the top 3 market on betfair for today is a joke anyway.

I suppose it depends how much you want on. I got on at 13/5 so yeah it is a bit shorter than the e/w terms in the outright market, but I am not losing half my stake at the same time. There is currently 100 quid waiting to be matched on him at 3.5 which would more than satisfy most people. It is a shame that the normal bookies don't offer this market especially on stages like this where Kittel is so short. If he continues to dominate then I think you may even see most firms going win only. If I thought he could win then I would have backed him in the outright market but to me you are betting on something bad happening to Kittel because that is the only way he won't win in my view. Sagan certainly won't beat him as he knows he can't and just wants to make sure he keeps getting the points for the Green Jersey. In my view Kittel should be even shorter than he is as he is that dominate.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Betfair offered today a without Kittel market so that's probably where some of the action should be in future, though liquidity will not be amazing. As for whether to oppose him or not, it is of course down to odds. This is cycling, crashes and mechanicals happen. If you can get the right odds on the right rider to win then it is worth taking. There'll be a day I'm sure where Shimano train get it wrong or another team outfox them. I remember Petacchi beat Cav one year at odds of about 30. That said, if I were to oppose Kittel I'd do it via breakaway selections. If he keeps this up then I think we'll see a day where people expect Kittel to win but the break gets away because nobody but Shimano will chase. I'll certainly be looking to oppose Kittel via this means in one of the transitional stages.

[Xtc12]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th 5 Pt Win Kittel @ 4/9 Genius :lol

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

Betfair offered today a without Kittel market so that's probably where some of the action should be in future, though liquidity will not be amazing. As for whether to oppose him or not, it is of course down to odds. This is cycling, crashes and mechanicals happen. If you can get the right odds on the right rider to win then it is worth taking. There'll be a day I'm sure where Shimano train get it wrong or another team outfox them. I remember Petacchi beat Cav one year at odds of about 30. That said, if I were to oppose Kittel I'd do it via breakaway selections. If he keeps this up then I think we'll see a day where people expect Kittel to win but the break gets away because nobody but Shimano will chase. I'll certainly be looking to oppose Kittel via this means in one of the transitional stages.

I agree with you I can see a breakaway surviving later on in the Tour and I will stop backing him when I think this might happen or if he gets stupidly short and it isn't worth the risk. The without Kittel market has had little money traded on it, but that could be a market the normal bookies go with to create some interest as I can't see it being attractive to most punters otherwise.

[9coconuts]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Badly timed crash for Froome today ahead of tomorrow's stage on the cobbles. He'll probably struggle to sleep tonight with that skin damage, plus he was flexing his wrist. I wonder if it will cost him time tomorrow. His odds to win the tour have just drifted a little.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Froome has gone for an X-Ray on his wrist although they don't think it is broken, but agree it is the worse injury possible with the cobbles tomorrow. A bit harder for Kittel today, but the same result in the end. Griepel is badly out of form and I struggle to see him even managing a top 3 on any stage the way he is going.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Kittel made it look hard today and didn't win like a 1/2 shot. He was under severe pressure. I took some of the Contador 13/8 outright again. Even with out the injury I taught Froome would be the main GC rider who would lose time tomorrow, now with his wrist problems it is highly likely he will. Tomorrow should be an epic stage with strong winds and wet roads. It should be carnage actually if it is rode hard. It is nearly guaranteed at least one big GC casualty whether by crash puncture or them just having a bad day. I think teams like Belkin and BMC should ride this hard for Mollema and TJVG, they could definitely gain time on their bigger GC riders. I don't think it is long enough for the classic riders to dominate the stage. So I expect the good cobbled riders who are fast sprinters to win this. This narrows it down to Kristoff, Degenkolb, Sagan, Demare and Van Avermaet for me. Van Avermaet was 50/1 with PP on sunday and I took that. He is best priced 16/1 now. Degenkolb finished 2nd in Roubaix this year which is the ultimate cobbled race. The favourite for tomorrow Cancellara couldn't drop him and with tomorrow being way shorter, it should play into Degenkob hands and also he is faster than him when it comes to a sprint. Barring injury or a puncture Degenkolb will be there at the end. I think Kristoff has to have a great chance as well, he finished 5th in Flanders and won Milan San Remo and he looked very good in the sprint today. If your looking for 2 at bigger odds Kwiatkowski 50/1 and Langeveld 66/1 look like good bets. The former has great one day classic form and should be suited to tomorrow's stage. Langeveld came 8th at Roubaix and 10 in Flanders so is being underestimated a bit here. 2pt e/w Degenkolb 8/1 betfred 1pt e/w Kristoff 10/1 Boyles paying 4 0.5pts e/w Langeveld 66/1 Bet 365 0.5pts e/w Kwiatkowski 50/1 Boyles paying 4. Outright 5pts Contador 13/8 skybet

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

Kittel made it look hard today and didn't win like a 1/2 shot. He was under severe pressure.

True but he still won again though. I find it odd you aren't backing him given you were telling me Cav wouldn't be good enough to beat him in the Tour. Sadly we aren't going to see that battle, but even after today it still didn't make me think he is going to be beaten in any stage which is a mass sprint. It was a bit of a messy finish really which the sprint trains all over the place.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

True but he still won again though. I find it odd you aren't backing him given you were telling me Cav wouldn't be good enough to beat him in the Tour. Sadly we aren't going to see that battle' date=' but even after today it still didn't make me think he is going to be beaten in any stage which is a mass sprint. It was a bit of a messy finish really which the sprint trains all over the place.[/quote'] Did he win like a 1/2 shot no, so he wasn't the value bet today, that's the whole point I'm making. Yesterday he was the value bet though. Cavendish wouldn't have been good enough to beat him in the 1st and 3rd stage, I think anyone that knows anything about cycling would agree with that. He would have had a good chance today though as Kittel seemed to struggle a bit. Only for I took a hefty loss on Sagan in stage 2 I would have backed Kittel for stage 3. I was never going to back him today as I had my doubts at the price and they were nearly proven right.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

Did he win like a 1/2 shot no' date=' so he wasn't the value bet today, that's the whole point I'm making. Yesterday he was the value bet though. Cavendish wouldn't have been good enough to beat him in the 1st and 3rd stage, I think anyone that knows anything about cycling would agree with that. He would have had a good chance today though as Kittel seemed to struggle a bit. Only for I took a hefty loss on Sagan in stage 2 I would have backed Kittel for stage 3. I was never going to back him today as I had my doubts at the price and they were nearly proven right.[/quote'] From my point of view though he could have won by a mm and I wouldn't care as I was collecting and the overhead shot showed he was never really in too much danger of getting beaten. You shouldn't let what has happened before affect what you are going to punt in the future. I know sometimes it is hard and I know you were frustrated about Sagan not winning (and I can see why) but that shouldn't have stopped you backing Kittel for Stage 3 which he was, as you say a good thing for. I would have backed him yesterday even with Cav in the race, but I thought the finish wasn't right for Kittel on Saturday which is why I took him on and was holding out for a drift on Kittel after him not winning Stage 1. Renshaw said after yesterday's stage that Cav is the fastest in the bunch, I suppose he would say that though, just a shame we don't get to say for certain one way or another with Cav out.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th From what I saw of the replays Demare had the better sprint yesterday but came from too far behind. Had he been on Kittel's wheel I think Demare would have won. It's not to say he'll win next time of course, but I did think Kittel had a small vulnerability today which is well worth baring in mind for stage 6. Also, Henderson is out for Lotto, and with Greipel so anemic in the sprints I'd be surprised if they do much of the chasing from here on in. It's another factor that could take more out of Shimano as Lotto were one of the biggest contributors to the chase these last few stages. With Cav out OPQS of course don't have a lot of responsibility to chase either. I'd certainly be looking to oppose Kittel if he's 1.6 or shorter for stage 6. Onto today's stage and Van Avermaet not the odds I was hoping. Saw the 46s that PP had on offer but having had my account closed couldn't take it, but was hoping he'd be priced similarly with the other firms - alas not to be. One bet so far: Heinrich Haussler @ 120 Betfair Not a top class sprinter but capable all the same and definitely a rider who does well on cobbles and has Top 10 results in races like Paris Roubaix and Gent Wevelgem. The last time when cobbles featured in the tour Wiggins was in a lead group with Evans. They and Thomas all worked together to make up time and Thor followed them before sprinting to victory. I don't discount a similar situation with either Belkin and/or Garmin Sharp and/or BMC being the teams with GC riders surrounded by strong cobble riders who could hit the front and ride for time. Of course, there is no guarantee Haussler would be the only sprinter there as Degenkolb, Sagan and Demare all have decent results on cobbles but Haussler looks too long for mine.

[SteveD53]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Have a double running with Quintana/Froome for the Giro/Tour. That's the last bit of bad luck for Froome this year. Wouldn't be surprised if he effectively loses it tomorrow. Any time lost will be very hard to recoup, despite the TT Have reluctantly done a cover bet on Contatdor at 13/10. Still a 10% profit if he wins, pfft Fun e/w bet on Thomas for tomorrow's stage. Could be let loose if it becomes apparent Froome is knacked

[Xtc12]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

5 Pt Win Kittel @ 4/9 Genius :lol

That puts me with a loss of 3.78 pts. For stage 5 .... we are going to have a bumpy ride and we may see some of the GC contenders in a bit of trouble, Froome with wrist damage and Contador lost a minute on the cobblestones in 2010. One man that loves the cobblestones is Fabian Cancellara and the 3.75 about him has to be taken. One man that maybe able to follow Cancellara is Sep Vanmarcke (Belkin), who will have Lars Boom and Mollema by his side. Jens Keukeleire (Greenedge) has this stage circled in his road book. It will be interesting to see if he can bring some success to the Australian team after a start to the race bearing nothing but bad luck. 2Pts Win - F.Cancellara 11/4 1 Pt e/w - S.Vanmarcke 9/1 1 Pt e/w - J.Keukeleire 40/1

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Not sure whether to play or not on tomorrow's stage. It is due to be very wet and even cancellara doesn't know how it's going to ride as he thinks no one in the race has ridden over the cobbles in the wet before. Could make it a bit of a lottery. As for froome he has been given the green light to race tomorrow. I don't feel the need to back contador yet and will wait and see what happens first. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Looks like it is raining and potentially 2 sections will be bypassed as the cobblestones are flooded. That's still 7 sections of wet cobbles which will make things quite interesting. On Froome, I expect him to struggle in a major way today. Never has been overly comfortable in the wet and hand/wrist injuries are just going to be hell on today's stage. He literally suffered those injuries at the worst possible time. Having one play based on this expectation of Froome struggling and with the Cobbles in mind: Bauke Mollema Top 3 finish @ 15 Betfair 6th last year in a Tour where the absent Quintana and Kreuziger and out of contention Rodriguez all finished ahead of the dutchman. This is counter balanced by the addition of Nibali and the improvement of Talansky but if Froome struggles there's two podium positions available. Belkin have the best classics riders in the Tour IMO and I expect them to make a big move today and gain Mollema over a minute of some of the GC contenders. **************************************************************************************** For today's stage, as I expect a bit of a lottery, I am happy to take some prices which look big to me. Heinrich Haussler @ 120 Betfair - As per above post Lars Boom @ 50 Betfair - Expect Belkin to do well and if they have multiple guys at the finish it's possible Vanmarcke attacks and is marked, Boom does the classic counter attack and nobody feels like chasing him after exerting effort to reel in his team-mate. Big odds for a strong classics rider. Jens Keukeliere @ 80 Betfair - Won't have to protect anyone as there's no GC hope on his team and he's good on the cobbles. Bit of a lottery pick but strong cobblestone riders with no GC protection duties at big prices on a day like this is what I love about cycling Mathew Hayman @ 120 Betfair - Few riders have raced on wet cobblestones before but Hayman is one of them (Paris Roubaix 2002). That experience may help him and the same reasons that apply to his team-mate Jens apply to him too. Arnaud Demare @ 50 Betfair - I was never really keen to back him today but he's had some results on cobbles. He opened at 20-1 and when I saw 50 available I thought it was too big and backed. Purely odds based selection. Peter Sagan @ 7.4 Betfair - I don't know if there are enough cobblestone sections for Cancellara as this isn't Paris Roubaix. Sagan has had some good results in classics and he is an excellent bike handler which I think helps a lot today. If he's there at the end he'd surely be favourite to win the sprint. I said big odds at the start of my post and for Sagan I feel this is big.