Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

[Aidymac]

[TABLE=class: odds bestOdds]

[TR=class: BO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]Froome, C[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]

1.8

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2.1

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]Contador, A[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]

4.5

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5.1

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]Nibali, V[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]

6

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7.6

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]Valverde, A[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]

17

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32

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]Rodriguez, Joaquin[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]

41

[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]

300

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]Kreuziger, R[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]

51

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110

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]Porte, R[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]

51

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150

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]Schleck, A[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]

52

[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]

130

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]Wiggins, B[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]

52

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170

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]Costa, R[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]

67

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85

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]van Garderen, T[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]

67

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44

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]Betancourt , CA[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]

81

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80

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]Uran, R[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]

83

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210

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]van den Broeck, J[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]

83

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260

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]Horner, C[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]

101

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310

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]Schleck, F[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]

101

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150

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]Mollema, B[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]

151

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310

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO1] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FFF6F6, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]Talansky, A[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FFF6F6]

151

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310

[/TD] [/TR] [TR=class: BO0] [TD=class: ChartFormButtons, bgcolor: #FCE3E2, align: center][/TD] [TD=class: Competitor, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]Kwiatkowski, M[/TD] [TD=class: bindHover cellOdd, bgcolor: #FCE3E2]

156

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110

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[robertob]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Tour De France winner: Rui Costa @ 80/1 Boylesports - 1pt e/w I find it hard look beyond Chris Froome if it is about the winner of the Tour this year, he will be extremely hard to beat. That says over three weeks, with a pretty dangerous first week, nothing is a certainty in the TDF, and for that reason I cant have him odds-on betting wise. Most alternatives are not really appealing though, however Boylesports' 80/1 for Rui Costa is clearly outstanding, as I would even consider him value for much lower. He has the pedigree of a rider who can go really well in the Tour this year, now that he is riding for Lampre with leader duties. He knows how to handle this kind of pressure since he won a couple of tours in the past, like the Tour de Suisse twice or his 2nd in Paris-Nice. Obviously it's something different to be consistent over three weeks, and this will be the main question. But he is in the right age, has the right experience and results in the book. Not to forget he won three stages at the TDF already, particularly impressively last year. Rui Costa has the ambitions and ability to be a strong contender for this years Tour, considering he has had a good and consistent season so far and should be primed coming into the TDF on the back of this years Tour de Suisse. He is smart - which was most apparent when he won the world Championship last year - climbs well and can be explosive. Only weakness is his time trial ability, however that won't be too much of a problem as their is only one ITT, which is a rather demanding one featuring smaller climbs and for that reason should rather suit a rider like him than the time trial specialists. So after alll I see him with as a good a chance to finish on the podium as anybody, bar Froome and Contador, who are clearly outstanding, but not unbeatable. Particularly Contador, who is not getting any younger, and finished only 4th last year, has some question marks over his head, even though he has all the experience to go well again. There are also a couple of stages that probably will suit Rui Costa perfectly I feel, so he should be naturally a candidate to do either well, if not even winning one or another stage this year. He is clearly a price to get excited about and way too big in the betting.

[SteveD53]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th As mentioned in The Giro thread. Took Marcel Kittel at 3.00 to win the first stage with Paddypower. So much faster than everyone else. Hope Giant can deliver him! Took Quintana to win when he'd drifted out to 2.20 at the Giro, and put him in a double with Chris Froome to win the Tour at 1.72. First part complete. but a bit nervy about the Froome after the Dauphine disaster. Might well put a little cover bet on Contador as it's hard to see it being anyone other than those two that win it. Barring injury or illness, the rest of the contenders are surely just racing for third? Outstanding field, best for years. Should be a cracker!

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I think that's always the problem in betting on cycling ante post and unless you are getting a much bigger price than you think it will be then not worth the risk. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[mrnice]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Like the premier league, the TDF is a competition where there can't be a surprise winner. Froome vs Contador it is. It is possible that they will both lose time somewhere, crash or get sick so in the second division, we have Nibali, Valverde, Van Den Broeck, Van Garderen, Talansky, Kreuziger and Porte. They all have proven records in 3-week stage races. Nobody outside of these 9 will win. However these will not be the top 9! But one of them will be the winner. Rodriguez is recovering from injury and has stated he is not going for the General Classification. Costa cannot challenge for the TDF. Too much climbing and too long. However there is a bewildering array of other markets to bet on from the winning team to the points jerseys to all kinds of specials. Looking forward to it.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Was very keen on backing Rolland for King of the Mountains but not at these odds. Now I'm ignoring him he's nailed on but I would have needed at least double digit odds given how much this can come down to a bit of luck. Fully expect Sagan to win green and one of the big two to win yellow, but don't much care for having money tied up at even money odds given how much a crash etc. can de-rail things. Stage wins and King of the Mountains the focus for me as always: Michael Kwiatkowski to win KoTM @ 201 Bet365 Bit of an odd reasoning here but Kwiatkowski has lost form. He struggled at the Dauphine and the team are so concerned they sent him off for test. He is going to be riding the tour in all likelihood though, albeit with the team focusing on Cav. His stated aim is a good GC finish but with his troubled build up I personally don't think he can finish the tour and not have bad days. I am actually counting on this because if he has a poor result in the first week his goals could well change to stage wins and potentially the polka jersey.

[mrnice]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th King of the Mountains is a funny one. You often need to look for a rider who is 1) a good climber (obviously), 2) prepared to go in breakaways, 3) not going for GC, 4) not tied up as a domestique for a GC candidate or sprint out train or chasing down breaks, 5) is probably French and 6) has a clear goal to go for the KOM. Often it is a case of reading the rider's blogs and seeing which ones have this as a stated goal. I dunno about Kwiatkowski for KOM. He never goes for KOM in any race, always goes for GC and stage wins.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Not that it will happen (he has little chance of winning Stage 2 for a start) but William Hill are a disgraceful 5/1 that Cav wins all 3 English stages, whereas Skybet are 50/1.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

King of the Mountains is a funny one. You often need to look for a rider who is 1) a good climber (obviously), 2) prepared to go in breakaways, 3) not going for GC, 4) not tied up as a domestique for a GC candidate or sprint out train or chasing down breaks, 5) is probably French and 6) has a clear goal to go for the KOM. Often it is a case of reading the rider's blogs and seeing which ones have this as a stated goal. I dunno about Kwiatkowski for KOM. He never goes for KOM in any race, always goes for GC and stage wins.

Used to be a lottery, but not so much now they have changed the rules and don't forget Quintana won it last year so could easily go to a GC rider.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Got this reply from Hills on Twitter - Were are not offering this market, what we are offering is Cavendish to Win 3 stages on UK Soil at 5/1. #VeryDifferent

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Geniez not in the final squad, so scrap that!

[mrnice]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

Used to be a lottery' date=' but not so much now they have changed the rules and don't forget Quintana won it last year so could easily go to a GC rider.[/quote'] Indeed, what you say, addpea, is correct. I note that this year again they are going with double points for a mountain top that is also the finish line so that, as you say, pushes the balance more towards the GC riders.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Roman Kreuziger is out of the Tour which is a big blow for Contador.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Been looking at the first stage finish on google maps after reading there was a steep climb just before the finish and it is quite a steep climb which ends about 400m from the finish. I don't think it is going to be a straight forward sprint at all because of this and the sprint teams are going to have to judge things right and keep enough in reserve for the climb. Not surprisingly Sagan has been pretty well backed in the last couple of days and my view is Kittel is going to struggle to win.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th So linked to the post above I have made my first bet of the Tour Sagan e/w at 12/1 with Sporting Bet for Stage 1. Wouldn't surprise me if he attacked when it went uphill and attempted to hold on, will probably save on Cav. Also Betfred and Totesport are first 4 on Stage 1.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th It is coming very close now, the route at first glance looks unappealing with no epic stages and very few HC climbs. I think the course is a good one this year, stage 2,5,8,10 and 16 which are all not high mountain top finishes should produce great excitement. Well who is going to win it realistically we all know it is going to be either Froome or Contador, but I can see this being very close this year. Froome is the best priced even money favourite. He started off the year good with overall victory in the Tour of Oman, but things started to go down hill after that. He had to pull out of Tirreno Adriatico with back problems and returned in Volta a Catalunya where he could only manage 6th overall. He attacked on stage 3 here but not only was he caught he was passed by his main rivals, Contador, Rodriguez and Quintana. He was clearly still not at 100%. He had to pull out of Liege-Bastogne-Liege with a chest infection,but then went onto win the Tour of Romandie. This wasn't done in convincing fashion however. He attacked on stage 3 dropping everyone bar Nibali, Nibali eventually cracked but Spilak managed to get back to Froome and beat him in the sprint for the win. It finished with a hilly 18.5 KM TTand only for Martin making a mistake on the final decent, he wouldn't have won that stage. This type of TT Froome should be winning easily. Froome then went to the Dauphine where he showed he was back to his old self with a very good win over Contador on stage 2. Contador tried to pass him and couldn't do it. Froome crashed then on stage 6 and when Contador attacked on stage 7 Froome had no answer he attacked himself and eventually got passed by Talansky and Hesjedal. Froome just completely cracked on stage 8, his crash has to be the blame you would think for this. Looking at Contadors season, it has been far better than Froome. He finished 2nd Volta Algarve, Tirreno Adriatico 1st, Catalunya 2nd, Pais Vasco 1st and 2nd Dauphine. Whatever way you look at it that is one hell of a season so far. Contador forgot about the Ardennes classic and solely prepared with the Tour his only goal. He trained differently this year and also changed his diet. He started off by winning the Queen stage in Algarve and won both mountain stages in Tirreno crushing Giro winner Quintana in the process. He performed very well in Catalunya beating Froome which would have been a confidence boost whatever way you look at it. He won Pais Vasco then and done an excellent TT in it which showed he is back to past form. He would have won the Dauphine only he decided to stay with Froome in the last stage not realising the man had nothing left in the tank. He folllowed Froome blistering attack on the 1st MT finish while he couldn't pass him, he must be very happy he stayed on his wheel. We can see they both have had very different seasons with Contador having the perfect one and Froomes practically being a disaster. If we are going on momentum there is only one winner but the Tour is not won on momentum. Who is going to win the Tour, I think that this is a matter of opinion and picking either is not a tip in my eyes. Personally I think Froome is very short at even money. If he hadn't that crash in the Dauphine and stayed with Contador in the last 2 stages, he would be the overwhelming favourite in my eyes. His season has been a mess and we have seen a trend in recent season's with Froome 2013,Wiggins 2012 that you have to go well in the spring season. Contador has done this Froome hasn't. Contador looks to be back to pre 2012 level which is good enough to put it up to Froome at his best never mind after the season he is after having. Contadors TT has improved considerably this year so Froome won't have as much of an advantage here. Stage 5 could be crucial with the cobbles and if I was having a bet on Froome I'd probably leave till after this as there is a big possibility Froome could loose time here and his price will drift. If I was to have a bet I would be leaning towards Contador at the price of 15/8. His preperation has been ideal, he has cut the gap to Froome in the TT and with Froomes preperation being less than ideal he looks the bet but not with great confidence. If Froome can perform like he did in stage 2 of the Dauphine,he will be very hard to beat. A quick word on the teams while Kreuziger is a big loss, Contador still has a very good team. In reality Contador is well able to look after himself without a team beside him as he has proved on many occasions. In Hernandez, Roche, Rodgers and Majka he has his strongest team in years. While Contador doesn't need babysitters Froome certainly does, again he has a great team behind and with Nieve, Lopez and Porte, he should have no problems in the mountains. After all my huffing and puffing above my small recommendation so far is 2pt win Contador to win 7/4 generally. I'll be back later with the challengers.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Had a look myself and it's definitely a bit of a rise. Not a big fan of betting on the flat stages but will have a small piece of Sacha Modolo @ 26 (Unibet). He beat Sagan in a recent stage in the Tour de Suisse. Cav crashed so it's not a fully indicative result but he showed himself to be very fast and his positioning was excellent, which is something that is often crucial on the first flat stage as there's often a few crashes in the first stage. Also adding one for the KoTM - Christophe Riblon @ 51 (Laddies). He's a decent enough climber to potentially win this if he positions himself in the right breaks. As I said earlier a lot of the stages this year have HC and Cat 1 climbs earlier in the stages so whilst a GC rider could theoretically win this a solid climber who fully commits to this as a goal should be able to win it, especially as I expect a lot of foxing between Sky and the Kreuzigerless Saxo Tinkoff. I certainly don't expect every mountain top finish stage to be won by the big names and I think this tips in favour of a rider who won't finish Top 10.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Quickly go through the contender's. We have 2 main contenders in Nibali and Valverde. Nibali is best priced 11/1 to win. He has had a very bad year by his standards as he is always consistent. He finished 7th overall in the Dauphine but was dropped on a couple of occasions there. He did win his national championship the weekend but couldn't drop the young David Formolo which has to be a worry. Nibali has always been Mr Consistent, but he is notthis year and I couldn't be having him at that price to finish 3rd. Next in line is Valverde at 20/1, this looks like his last chance to get onto the podium as Quintana will be leader next year. He has had a quiet season with the Tour preperation his only goal. He has finished in the top 5 in nearly all the races he has competed in culminating with a 2nd in the Route du Sud. He won the spanish TT on Friday and gifted his team mate Izagirre the individual on Sunday, this shows his form is very good and at double the price of Nibali I'd rather have him on my side. I can see the podium being made up of 3 of those 4 unfortunately and don't give the rest much of a chance. Talansky looks the big danger to upset the apple tart, but I don't have much faith in him over a 3 week tour, that's only my personal opinion as he has shown great form in the Dauphine. I just don't think he is upto Nibali and Valverde level yet. The same can be said for Mollema, he went well in the Tour de Swiss but his climbing didn't look to be near the level he needs to challenge for a podium place. Van Garderen could be a surprise that crash in Romandie set him back a fair bit and he showed at the end of the Dauphine he is coming back to form. He is open to huge improvement and at the price he is worth a punt for that podium spot. I can't be having Costa just yet,he done well to win the Tour De Swiss,but I can't see him lasting the 3 weeks. He will have at least one horror day. JVDB will be thereabouts but we know his level now and I can't see him making the podium. Rodriguez will be going for stage wins, Horner could be anything but that crash has really set him back I'd say. You can forget the rest when looking for a podium finisher. My recommendations 2 pts e/w Valverde 20/1 Boyles 1.5 pts e/w Van Garderen 50/1 generally.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Yellow Jersey A bit like London buses you wait nearly a century for a British winner and then two come along at once! Wiggo misses out again this year, which on the balance of things I think is the wrong decision. Still Froome didn’t need him last year and I still expect him to come out on top again this year. He won with ease last year and given second place Nairo Quintana doesn’t line up it makes his job a little easier. According to the betting it is a two horse race and that is probably right. Alberto Contador never looked like winning last year when finishing 4^th, but he has been in much better form this time around and looks like he will be able to push Froome much closer this time around. There are two slight concerns I have about Froome. The first is his crash in the Dauphiné last month which stopped him from winning the race. My view is though it wasn’t serious enough to stop him from being in top shape come Saturday. I am more concerned about Stage 5 though which has nine sections of cobbles on it. The last time the Tour had a cobble stage there was carnage and Froome admitted in his autobiography that he isn’t suited to them. At least he has a decent team to see him through the stage and as long as he comes through that unscathed then he should win his second Tour de France. Betting without Froome Not surprisingly Contador is odds on in this market, but I am going to take a couple e/w at bigger prices. Vincenzo Nibali is next in the betting and he finished 3^rd in 2012. If in that sort of form he could easily repeat that effort, the problem is he has been in dreadful form this season and I am happy to pass him over. Alejandro Valverde was slightly unfortunate last year as he got a puncture at the wrong time. He should go well again, but his team would have done much better if they had sent Quintana. The two I am going to back are Andrew Talansky and Jurgen Van Den Broeck. Talansky has had a cracking season and ended up winning the Dauphiné after Contador decided to stick with Froome. He finished 10^th in his first Tour last year and he could easily improve enough to get on the podium so is worth backing e/w at 25/1 with Skybet and Paddy Power. Van Den Broeck has finished 4^th twice in the Tour and is a very solid rider when he gets round the course. The problem is he loves a crash and failed to finish last year. The cobbles worry me about him, but if he does make it to Paris I can easily see him being in the top 4 again, which should see a payout on this bet. He is 33/1 with Skybet and Paddy Power. Top 10 finish Obviously quite a few odds on chances in this market, but they won’t all finish in the top 10 and I have found a couple of odds against chances who I think will finish in the top 10. AG2R have got a very strong team this year (more of which later) and I can see young Romain Bardet improving on his 15^th last year. His time-trailing is nothing special, but he is very good in the mountains as his 4^th in the Tour Of Catalonia proved and at 6/4 with BetVictor he is a solid bet. Joaquim Rodriguez is a strong Grand Tour rider and he was 3^rd in last year’s Tour. He certainly won’t repeat that effort as he crashed in the Giro and wasn’t originally expected to even make the Tour. He recovered quicker than expected though so takes his chance. He has said that he will get better as the Tour goes on and I would be a bit surprised if he doesn’t work his way into the top 10 in the final week. Boylesports are biggest at 9/4. Green Jersey Quite simply Peter Sagan will win as long as he reaches Paris. He has hacked up in the last two years and his ability to gain points on stages that the pure sprinters can’t is vital. I think the sprinters will be aiming for stages rather than Green as they know Sagan is so hard to beat unless something happens to him. Not surprisingly he is odds on, but I recommend sticking Sagan in a double with Froome which pays just over 2/1 with William Hill. King Of The Mountains This had become a bit of a lottery, but two proper climbers and won it in the last three years and the change of the way the points are given means it can go to a GC contender. Indeed last year Quintana and Froome finished first and second. At this stage I am not going to get involved, but will look to back Froome each/way just before we hit the big mountain stages of the race. Team Classification As I mentioned above AG2R come to the Tour with their strongest ever team and I think they can prove themselves to be the best team of the Tour. As well as Bardet they have other riders who have the potential to finish in top 20. Also they have riders who will be getting into breaks and if one of those sticks then that will be a good way of gaining time on their rivals. Being a French team as well I can see this being a big target for them as it looks winnable. Astana are favourites and they should go well and the same can be said about Tinkoff-Saxo, who would have appealed more had Roman Kreuziger been allowed to start. 4/1 is available with Bet 365 although AG2R are a little bigger on Betfair. Stage 1 This has been billed as a showdown between the big three sprinters, but I am not sure it is going to be as simple as that. Having read that there is a pretty serious ramp up just before the finish in Harrogate I decided to have a look on Google Maps to see for myself and it is a hefty rise. It levels out a bit with 400m to go, but it is still uphill to the finish. The teams of the sprinters are going to have to get their tactics spot on, otherwise they run the risk of using up all their men before the end of the climb. I think this will work against Marcel Kittel and although he will win stages at this year’s Tour, he might not be up to winning the first stage as he did last year. Cav will be desperate to win in the town where his Mum was born and he has shown that he can cope with climbs to the finish and I think he has a very good chance of landing Stage 1. The main bet for me however is Sagan e/w. I can see him maybe trying to make a break for it once the road starts going uphill and he should be in the ideal position to pounce even if he doesn’t and he holds solid place claims. Froome/Sagan 1.5pts double Talansky 0.5pts e/w betting without Froome Van Den Broeck 0.5pts e/w betting without Froome Bardet 2pts Top 10 finish Rodriguez 2pts Top 10 finish AG2R 2pts Team Classification Sagan 1pt e/w Stage 1 Cavendish 1pt win Stage 1

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Top 10 I try not to back odds on shots for a top 10 place and try to look for even money shots or better. My first pick has to be Van Garderen at 11/10. He is a general 50/1 shot to win, but yet Porte, Costa, Mollema JVDB are all odds on shots to top 10 even though Van Garderen is ahead of them in the winner betting. It doesn't make since as Van Garderen should be a 2/5 shot to top 10 if all being right. The price has to be taken before its gone and I will be having a nice size bet on it as I think he has a shot of the podium as explained above. My next bet is Romain Bardet, he looks to be France next big hope taking over from Pinot short reign. He looks to be AG2R main man for GC. He finished 15th last year and he should improve on this. He has shown some good form this year in Catalyuna and Dauphine, he even dropped Froome, Quintana and Contador on stage 4 of this. He only found Nieve too good for a win in a stage in the Dauphine. He also finished top 5 in both of these so he is worth a shot at 6/4 with Corals. These 2 have the most solid form, the next few in the betting, I don't think they will top 10. Fuglsang will go close but will have to work for Nibali, Porte will have to do too much work for Froome so will blow at least one day and Pinot just hasn't convinced me this year and will look for stage wins. Frank showed good form in the Tour De Swisse and could go close but the odds are a bit short, Peraud, Konig Horner and Kwiatkowski also have a chance. I think Rodriguez will concentrate on stage wins same can be said for Rolland and Spilak. One at bigger odds who have a chance are Navarro 5/1 PP . Navarro looks to be Confidis main GC man he finished 9th in this last year and has been consistent this year with a 9th overall in the Dauphine. 8pts Van Garderen 11/10 bet 365 5pts Bardet 6/4 Corals 2pts Navarro 5/1 PP Young rider classification I think this is a straight duel between Bardet and Kwiatkowski. Looking down the list Yates is too young and inexperienced, Izaguirre will ride for Valverde, Majka for Contador so that rules them out. Reichenbach fell away a bit in the Dauphine so doesn't look ready for a 3 week race yet. I'm leaving out Pinot as well, he was suffering from illness in the Tour de Swisse and he can't be 100% right. I think he will suffer on stage 5 the cobbles and there are huge question marks over his decending when the pressure is on. I gave my reasons for Bardet already and I just think he is a better climber than Kwiatkowski. Kwiatkowski Dauphine performance has to be a worry and I think he trained more for the classics this year and will probably target stage wins. 4pts Bardet 2/1 with Boyles. Team classification. I think you can write off any team from Lampre down. I can't see Lampre challenging for this. I think Moviestar, Saxo and Sky will put too much into there GC men so all there good climbers will lose time at some point in time.I think it will be a straight fight between Astana and AG2R with my preference going to Astana. Astana always like to have guys well up in GC and the same will happen this year. I can't see them ride flat out for Nibali. They look to have the strongest team on paper anyway. I have a feeling AG2R will go for stage wins and the mountains jersey so I can see allof them outside Bardet and Peraud lose time. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if Peraud lost time as well. I think Astana are a well rounded team and should take this. 5pts Astana 11/4 skybet.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th The Racing Post preview is in tomorrow's paper.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th King of the Mountains. We all know this is a bit of a lottery and I would advise people to wait till stage 10 to see who is in the break. Just for preview purposes I have picked out 4 to follow for those who like a bet at the start. The most obvious place to start is with the GC favourites who are all near the top of the betting. I maybe on my own here but I don't think a GC favourite will win the KOM this year. We have 5 mountain top finishes so double points on offer here. 2 of them are 1st category with 3 HC. The way those stages are laid out, there is plenty points on offer for the breakaway guys. I can see Saxo and Sky letting breakaways go and I expect the breakaway to win at least 2 of these. I think we will see something similar what happened in the Dauphine where sky and Saxo weren't pushed in chasing breaks. I don't think the GC boys will gather enough of points to win it. I think whatever non GC rider targets this will win it. The French are the obvious starting point and Rolland is near the top of the betting, he is very short though and I wouldn't touch him at this stage. You have to look at the French teams with French riders and the one's I picked out are Cherel 300/1 betvictor, Jeannesson 150/1 bet 365, Taaramae 100/1 SJ, B Filleau 100/1 betfred. All these would fancy there chances if they did go for it, they can all climb and wouldn't have any GC aspirations. Of the non French riders Spilak 100/1 PP, Scarponi 200/1 bet victor and F Schleck 125/1 Boyles interest me. All these can climb and with Katusha and Trek not having GC guys, they might fancy there chances. I will have a small bet on 4 of these for an interest, but again I would wait till stage 10 to see who is in the break and we should know then who is going for this. 0.75pts e/w Spilak 100/1 PP 0.5 pts Jeannesson 150/1 bet 365 0.5pts e/w Cherel 300/1 betvictor 0.5 pts e/w Taaramae 100/1 SJ

[meatman]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I live near Harrogate and the hill just before the finishing line is an interesting one. It's not overly steep but may well still play a key role in who wins the stage. Traffic hasn't gone up the hill since the mid 80s so I have no idea of anyone who has ever done the climb or whether or not anyone will be able to test it before the stage.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Green jersey winner. Sagan is the overwhelming favourite at 4/7, he should win the jersey as the route this year is very Sagan friendly. Personally myself I couldn't be backing him at those odds. I think his price might drift a bit in the early stages of the Tour as I can't see him having it all his own way. While he can't match the big 3 on the flat stages Kittel, Cavendish or Greipel, we always saw in the past he would nearly always finish 3rd to 5th on those stages. I think he will have more competition this year for those spots. Demare is faster than him and if Degenkolb is allowed sprint he is also faster than him, add in Kristoff and Modolo too who on there day will be able to mix it with him. Add in the fact that his full sprint is a bit slower from last year, we could see him finishing outside the top 5 on flat sprints, something we never saw before. Also in previous years on the lumpier stages he had it all his own way with the intermediate sprints and the finish as the big 3 where no where to be seen. This year that shouldn't happen Kristoff, and Demare should see to this, both are well capable of competing in the lumpy stages and should take points along the way that Sagan would usually mop up. Add in Greipel who has improved dramatically in this area too he won't have it all his own way. He also has a challenger in the steeper finishes in Michael Mathews. It has been a given the last couple of years that Sagan would win these, but we can't say that for sure this year with Mathews involved. He has stated that he wants the yellow jersey in the 1st week and he will be looking to win stage 2 a sagan type stage (edit Matthews is injured so might not start.good news for Sagan). While I think Sagan will win the jersey there is a lot more danger this year than previous years and at those odds I couldn't be getting involved till they drift a bit. His biggest danger should be Kittel if we only knew that he will compete for the intermediate sprints. He is the fastest rider in the field and if he can get his train going he should win all the flat stages in my opinion. I think you will have to wait for the first intermediate sprint to see will he go for it before having a bet. He has a great alloy in Degenkolb who is faster than Sagan in a flat sprint and would compete in the lumpier stages as welltaking valuable points off him. I just couldn't be having Cavendish at all, Kittel is clearly faster than him at the moment and I can't see him winning the stages to compete for this. He was lucky to beat Degenkolb a couple times in California and unless he has improved dramatically since that form isn't great. Also he has been sick the last couple of weeks so that can't help either. Greipel could be a good outside bet for a top 3. He has had a great year this year winning a good few races along the way. He has closed the gap to Kittel and Cavendish so far as high end speed goes and this will only help him getting more points. His climbing has improved too and he could cause Sagan problems in some of the more difficult intermediate sprints and stages. At the odds he is worth a bet. The same can be said for Demare, the team picking him before Bouhanni has to be a tip in itself. We saw what Bouhanni done in the Giro and this fella is held in higher regard. He was very impressive in Dunkirk destroying the field in a couple of sprints albeit weaker opposition than normal,but he went onto win the french national championship last week beating Bouhanni into 2nd. He is open to most improvement in this race and could split the big 3 in some of the sprints. He is a better climber than the big 3 and would beat Sagan in a sprint for intermediate points in the lumpier stages. He is also worth a bet to finish in the top 3. I think you can forget the rest but Mathews, Modolo and Kristoff will pick up some good points along the way. Recommendations 1.5 pts e/w Greipel 18/1 bet victor 1pt e/w Demare 33/1 PP. I'd wait to see will Kittel go for the intermediate sprints because if he does anything over 5/1 would be a great bet.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

I live near Harrogate and the hill just before the finishing line is an interesting one. It's not overly steep but may well still play a key role in who wins the stage. Traffic hasn't gone up the hill since the mid 80s so I have no idea of anyone who has ever done the climb or whether or not anyone will be able to test it before the stage.

Not sure which climb you are talking about but the coming up to the finish is a one way street which does still have traffic on it. I am guessing because they are riding it the opposite way to the way the traffic goes though that none of them will have been able to properly ride it. It is going to make a massive difference to who wins the stage for me.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Michael Matthews is out of the tour, replaced by Christian Meier. Will make Sagan's path to green that little bit easier.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Racing post tipped up froome for yellow and king of the mountains which they also put up nibali. For green they went with griepel e/w. They also tipped up under 5.5 yellow jersey wearers and the winning margin being over 2 minutes. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

Racing post tipped up froome for yellow and king of the mountains which they also put up nibali. For green they went with griepel e/w. They also tipped up under 5.5 yellow jersey wearers and the winning margin being over 2 minutes. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

Fair play for flagging that up, but that preview was a disgrace and it shouldn't be given the time of day. Our previews were much better to be honest.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Stage 1 What a great stage to start things off, if that was a straight flat sprint to the line I'd have no problem in flagging Kittel up for the win as he is the fastest of the 3 amigo's. It all comes down to will they get there. On paper the finish looks difficult enough with a small climb near the finish. As much as Cavendish wants to win it I can't see him doing it. I think Shimano and Lotto have a better leadout train and I can see both those beating him if it comes down to a sprint. If it don't people are expecting Sagan to win but I don't think he will believe it or not I think the finish is too easy for him. I'm certain Demare will be there and Kristoff, Modolo and Degenkolf won't be far behind. I think Demare is way better value than Sagan at nearly triple the price 22/1 Corals. This finish should suit him perfectly and he should finish in the top 3 if the pure sprinters aren't there. I'm going to give Kittel the benefit of the doubt here, If he can get over the hills at the finish he wins, and since he is fresh and the best flat out sprinter and with Degenkolf to lead him out, he should be winning this. Bets 2pts e/w Demare 22/1 corals 3ptwin Kittel 3/12 Ladbrokes.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th The one area where the final gradient could be key is lead out trains. Even if the big sprinters make it I doubt they'll be able to keep their train organized.