Xtc12 Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Jens Keukeliere @ 80 Betfair - Won't have to protect anyone as there's no GC hope on his team and he's good on the cobbles. Bit of a lottery pick but strong cobblestone riders with no GC protection duties at big prices on a day like this is what I love about cycling Just goes to show the difference between bookmakers with my 40/1 at Boyles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I have taken another 3 at big odds today. Marcus Burghardt 1pt win @ 360 betfair. He finsihed 12th in Flanders and 22nd in PN, so he has good cobbled form. If his team leave him have a go at this he has a good chance. Sebastien Minard 0.5pts e/w 250/1 bet 365. He again has cobbled form. He finished 20th in Flanders and 23rd in PR. He should be left of the leash today by his team and he has a better chance than those odds suggest. Tony Gallopin 0.5pts e/w 200/1 bet 365. He finished 23rd in Flanders and showed good form in stage 2, if this comes down to a reduced sprint he has an outside chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Not getting involved as it looks like it's going to be a complete lottery out there based on the pictures I have seen on twitter. 2 sections have been taken out which will help froome a little. It will be a shame if today ruins any chance he has of winning the tour. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Why would it be a shame, all the rest of the peleton have to deal with the conditions. He was well aware this stage was coming. To win the Tour you need to be the complete rider so it is up to him alone to improve his bike handling skills. Of course I am not wishing a nasty crash on him, but he should be treated no different to anyone else. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th If it's a puncture or a crash it will be unfortunate, but if a GC rider is simply too scared or unable to ride the cobbles well then it won't be a shame. Nobody says it's a shame Sagan can't win the tour because he can't climb well, don't see why the cobblestones should be different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Froome out before we even get to the cobbles. Really feel for him as he has had no luck the last couple of days. Not what you want to see at all. Suspect there will be plenty more carnage to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Paddy Power are refunding all bets on Froome to win the Tour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Just backed Nibali to win the Tour at 100/30. Riding very well today and Contador isn't liking the cobbles at all, I can see him losing time to Nibali today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Well done CP another huge priced winner for you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Shame Van den Broeck and Talansky both crashed when they did because I would have been in a cracking position with them as well, but they are still in decent positions. Astana looking so strong and Contador and the rest are going to find it very hard now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Sets up the rest of the tour very well though. Astana are a super strong team and Nibali is in top form from the looks of it. With him having two minutes over a host of riders I think it sets things up very well for attacks from the get go. Contador in particular I can see on the attack many times in the coming mountain stages. Mollema actually lost 20-45s on his podium contenders today which I wasn't expecting, but there's definitely a podium spot up for grabs between Van den Broeck, Talansky, Porte, Van Garderen & Valverde, though I don't think the latter has it in him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Looks like it is raining and potentially 2 sections will be bypassed as the cobblestones are flooded. That's still 7 sections of wet cobbles which will make things quite interesting. On Froome, I expect him to struggle in a major way today. Never has been overly comfortable in the wet and hand/wrist injuries are just going to be hell on today's stage. He literally suffered those injuries at the worst possible time. Having one play based on this expectation of Froome struggling and with the Cobbles in mind: Bauke Mollema Top 3 finish @ 15 Betfair 6th last year in a Tour where the absent Quintana and Kreuziger and out of contention Rodriguez all finished ahead of the dutchman. This is counter balanced by the addition of Nibali and the improvement of Talansky but if Froome struggles there's two podium positions available. Belkin have the best classics riders in the Tour IMO and I expect them to make a big move today and gain Mollema over a minute of some of the GC contenders. **************************************************************************************** For today's stage, as I expect a bit of a lottery, I am happy to take some prices which look big to me. Heinrich Haussler @ 120 Betfair - As per above post Lars Boom @ 50 Betfair - Expect Belkin to do well and if they have multiple guys at the finish it's possible Vanmarcke attacks and is marked, Boom does the classic counter attack and nobody feels like chasing him after exerting effort to reel in his team-mate. Big odds for a strong classics rider. Jens Keukeliere @ 80 Betfair - Won't have to protect anyone as there's no GC hope on his team and he's good on the cobbles. Bit of a lottery pick but strong cobblestone riders with no GC protection duties at big prices on a day like this is what I love about cycling Mathew Hayman @ 120 Betfair - Few riders have raced on wet cobblestones before but Hayman is one of them (Paris Roubaix 2002). That experience may help him and the same reasons that apply to his team-mate Jens apply to him too. Arnaud Demare @ 50 Betfair - I was never really keen to back him today but he's had some results on cobbles. He opened at 20-1 and when I saw 50 available I thought it was too big and backed. Purely odds based selection. Peter Sagan @ 7.4 Betfair - I don't know if there are enough cobblestone sections for Cancellara as this isn't Paris Roubaix. Sagan has had some good results in classics and he is an excellent bike handler which I think helps a lot today. If he's there at the end he'd surely be favourite to win the sprint. I said big odds at the start of my post and for Sagan I feel this is big. First, fourth and sixth and a guy in the first breakaway who faded away late on. Think you've got this game covered Crouchie :lol. Top work as ever fella :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Well done CP another huge priced winner for you First' date=' fourth and sixth and a guy in the first breakaway who faded away late on. Think you've got this game covered Crouchie :lol. Top work as ever fella :ok[/quote'] Cheers guys. For tomorrow, it is worth noting that Marcel Kittel crashed early today. He looked okay, but I'd be cautious. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Yes could be tricky tomorrow's stage given the suffering everyone has been through today. The problem with the likes of Kittel is there was little coverage of him today so we don't know for sure how he got on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Shame I was in too much of a rush to write up my tip this morning (& even more of a shame that I missed out on yet another great Crouch Potato tip!). Kind of annoyed I couldn't get a better place price given Nibali's odds to win, but at least I'm back in the black for Le Tour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th ...in the interests of honesty, I should mention I was on Contador e/w @250/1 with Coral as well. (My reasoning was that these cobbled stages are not quite like the classics, because the GC big guns come to compete while in peak condition & with the full might of their teams - they can end up placing just from trying to distance their GC rivals.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Pity on Froome to go out like that, great to see Nibali put the hammer down. While Contador wasn't great on the cobbles today, I don't think he took many chances and rode within himself. I don't think Nibali has enough of a time gap to win the Tour, I can see Contador gaining time on him in all the up hill finishes from here and he should gain time in the TT as well. I'm willing to back Contador at 9/5 with Hills again. Of course this is all redundant if Vinokourov has been given Nibali some magic potion. I think Kittel is very short for tomorrow, he crashed today but we don't know how much it took out of him. He was pushed hard on stage 4 so the odds are very skimpy. I couldn't be having Greipel with the form he is in. Sagan had a tough race today and Kristoff and Demare both crashed, so there is a question mark over all the favourites. I'm going to give Coquard another chance tomorrow at 25/1. He didn't crash today and he is worth another shot. I'm going to go for Kristoff as well, he looked in very good form yesterday and will go close if fit. If Kittel is not feeling right, Degenkolb would have a great chance tomorrow in the sprint. He was only out for a spin today and has to be fresh. He was only a whisker away from beating Cavendish in California a few weeks back so his sprinting form is there. He has to be worth a punt at 110/1 1pt e/w Coquard 25/1 SJ 1pt e/w Demare 12/1 Boyles 0.5pts e/w Degenkolb 110/1 SJ Outright 5pt win Contador for Tour 9/5 Hills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I think degenkolb crashed at the same time as kittel. Nibali has a nice gap for me and I think contador is going to find it very hard to catch him especially as astana look so strong. I am not tempted to lay off at the moment that's for sure. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Kittel crashed on his own today, going by reports from Giant, Degenkolb didn't crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Kittel crashed on his own today' date=' going by reports from Giant, Degenkolb didn't crash.[/quote'] This would suggest otherwise Marcel Kittel @marcelkittel · 4h The day was not exactly what we wanted today. Crashed with John in a roundabout & ended up in the grupetto. Shit happens I guess... :-/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 9, 2014 Share Posted July 9, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th This would suggest otherwise Marcel Kittel @marcelkittel · 4h The day was not exactly what we wanted today. Crashed with John in a roundabout & ended up in the grupetto. Shit happens I guess... :-/ Your right my information wasn't very accurate at all. Degenkolb seems to have an injury now not Kittel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
antogz Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Just thinking after yesterday's grueling stage a break might have a chance of staying away, if the right people get in it. There has to be a lot of sore bodies out there today. I can't see Saxo doing big work today and they inadvertently helped chase down 2 breaks already. Astana will control for a while but won't be pushed. Lotto were the main team that chased the break down and with Griepel in such bad form and Henderson his main leadout man gone, I can't see why they would. It could be left up to Giant again to do the work. There seems to be a tailwind for the last 80km or so which will help the breakaway. Just a taught for people who might be backing one of the sprinters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xtc12 Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Alexander Kristoff has been getting better and better as the race evolves. After an incredible leadout from Alexander Porsev on stage 4, Kristoff almost managed to hold off Marcel Kittel. In hindsight, Porsev probably started his leadout too early. The Russian champion is obviously in great shape right now. If he manages to time his leadout a little bit better, Kristoff will be able to give Kittel another close fight for the win. ?A.Kristoff 1 pt e\w @ 10.0 Boyles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th On stages 3 and 4 I thought a sprint was basically a 100% certainty. Today, I don't think it is quite as high. Maybe 80-85%, but there are a number of factors which could help a break succeed: 1) Lotto lost a man in Henderson and Greipel riding poorly means they are less likely to chase much 2) Yesterday was a very hard stage. A lot of tired bodies and Astana wouldn't care if they lost yellow given the battle they have ahead 3) Cavendish is out and OPQS rode very hard at the front yesterday, I doubt they contribute a great deal to the chase. Of course, countering this is the fact that I thought Kittel looked beatable last stage. A sprint is still quite likely but not a nailed on cert. Arnaud Demare @ 14 Betfair - I rewatched the sprint on Stage 4 and IMO Demare was easily the quickest. He came from too far behind and his positioning was what cost him but had he been on Kittel's wheel I think he wins. Kittel also crashed yesterday and so may be slightly affected. Demare crashed too but has tweeted that he's fine. I make Demare a very clear 2nd favourite here and though I rarely back sprinters I'm very happy to make an exception here. As I can see how a break might win, I've taken a handful of riders who I think will a) look to be in a break and; b) have qualities that suggest they could win from a break. These qualities may be a decent sprint finish, time trial ability as they can solo in the last kms or a track pedigree. Paul Voss @ 320 - NetApp very active in the breaks Jens Voigt @ 390 - Winning qualities and loves to attack Julien Simon @ 450 - Cofidis another team active in breaks and has ability to win from a break Zakkari Dempster @ 500 - NetApp rider with track pedigree Yukiya Arashiro @ 1000 - Decent sprint finish and Europcar another who look for the breaks. All bets with Betfair. Wouldn't put anything more than min stakes on the break riders as I do believe very much in Demare today, but can't discount a breakaway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Well off the mark with the break today. Oh well, sprint still most likely so not a bad day to get it wrong. For tomorrow's stage, this news snippet will be very important: "Questioned this morning by letour.fr, Christian Guiberteau who is a directeur sportif for Giant-Shimano gave alarming news about John Degenkolb. The winner of Gent-Wevelgem had high ambitions for tomorrow's stage to Nancy with a hill preceding the finishing line but he's seriously injured. “John has a 2cm muscle thorn in his bum. He managed to walk better this morning than last night. But his confidence is affected now. He's taking the start but in the unknown. It's going to be very painful. Normally, such an injury has to be treated by resting but he doesn't want to quit." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th This is the full quote which shows they do want a sprint today and that Kittel is final after his crash yesterday. Questioned this morning by letour.fr, Christian Guiberteau who is a directeur sportif for Giant-Shimano gave alarming news about John Degenkolb. The winner of Gent-Wevelgem had high ambitions for tomorrow's stage to Nancy with a hill preceding the finishing line but he's seriously injured. “John has a 2cm muscle thorn in his bum. He managed to walk better this morning than last night. But his confidence is affected now. He's taking the start but in the unknown. It's going to be very painful. Normally, such an injury has to be treated by resting but he doesn't want to quit. On the other hand, Marcel Kittel doesn't suffer any consequence of his two crashes yesterday. Only one thigh is a little bit injured but nothing that prevent him from sprinting today, so we'll do our best for another bunch sprint finish in Reims because this is his last occasion to win until quite a long time from now. Tomorrow's finale in Nancy is too hard for him. It was ideal… for John, but… So we'll put our Chinese rider Ji Cheng at the head of the peloton again today. Yesterday, I followed him on the cobblestones when he was alone at the back because he had some problems to put a rain coat on and he lost contact with the group he was in. He was riding on a too small gear so I advised him to put a bigger one on. He had taken part in Paris-Roubaix before but in wet conditions, it was a very technical exercise. He did well though. We should see him in action as a breakaway killer again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Kittel has gone odds against in running with Betfred and that is too big a price to pass up given that Giant-Shimano are all out to make it a sprint today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Well greipel is back to form! Wonder if it helped he knew kittel wasn't there. Shame he got a puncture. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Turns out it wasn't a puncture for Kittel and just his team failed to stick together once the winds hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
9coconuts Posted July 10, 2014 Share Posted July 10, 2014 Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I can't seem to find much info on the severity of Sagan's crash today. I did see him drop back to the medical car for a bit. He still managed to finish fifth, but the greater impact can often come the next day. Definitely something to look out for with him being the favourite for stage 7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.