Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

[9coconuts]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

In-play: Trofimov @19 (Paddypower). Looks like Astana will probably chase this down' date= but if they diecide to ease off, Trofimov is a likely winner.

...oh, wait - how did I miss Nieve's name in the break? D'oh!

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Apparently Nieve had the same illness Porte had which is why we haven't seen much of him in recent days.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th God only knows what Vinokourov is feeding Nibali, I'm sure it will all come out at some stage in the future. Enough said for now.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

God only knows what Vinokourov is feeding Nibali' date=' I'm sure it will all come out at some stage in the future. Enough said for now.[/quote'] Is it such a surprise that he is miles ahead of the riders left in the race though? Doesn't surprise me at all. If he had done it to Contador and Froome then yes, but I don't see anyone else doubting what he has done.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

Is it such a surprise that he is miles ahead of the riders left in the race though? Doesn't surprise me at all. If he had done it to Contador and Froome then yes' date=' but I don't see anyone else doubting what he has done.[/quote'] Well it is too me and many cycling heads that I have been talking to. It's my opinion like you have yours, we'll leave it at that.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Well if it comes out he has then so be it, but he has had no one else to beat in the race. You have Valverde who was never going to be good enough and three younger riders who are improving, but not good enough yet. It isn't like this performance has come out of nowhere given his strong Grand Tour form in the past and he was the only rider who got anywhere near Froome and Wiggins in 2012. For one reason and another the Tour has had very little strength in depth this year and he has just proven to be different class to those that have managed to make it to the end of the race. Obviously the fact his team boss is who it is is never going to help, but then you could say the same about Contador. What I will say is that I am surprised at how little talk there has been of doping in the press given it is those two teams who have been so dominate and yet Team Sky barely got asked about anything but doping in the last two years.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Nibali really doesn't surprise me. As Addpea said the other riders near him are just nowhere near his level. If Froome and Contador were ahead of him and he had this gap to fourth nobody would say anything. There are more suspicious achievements than Nibalis IMO.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Interesting stage 19. Shimano say they work for Kittel today but he's priced at 8's instead of his usual evens or so. The cat 4 climb at the end is the obvious reason but Giant Shimano have a pretty good history of working for who they say they are working for. I don't think they're foxing when they say today is for Kittel so it could be value, but the way he has sprinted of late is not encouraging. For me, all the non sprinter teams will look for the break and after some tough mountain passes it is all about whether enough teams can work to bring back the break. I think the break has a real chance, particularly if it is of a decent size. For betting on men in the break I look for strong riders on the flat who have good time trial or sprints. The last climb is a great place to attack, be it from a break or when the peleton comes charging home. Therefore, there might be even be a second chance for these bets as if they miss the break they may go late on the attack if things are brought back together. Ramunas Navardouskas @ 81 Laddies - A very good time trial rider and strong sprint to boot. May save energy for tomorrow but we all know Tony Martin wins, so he should try today for the break. Jens Keukeliere @ 151 Bet365 - I expect Orica to attack and Jens is nice value here. A real strong rider on the flats and a decent sprint to boot. Nikki Terpstra @ 201 Laddies - Another strong rider on the flats who has won Paris Roubaix. Sep Vanmarcke @ 201 Bet365 - Another strong rider on the flats. Belkin has no sprinter so I think will look for the break and Vanmarcke is a great candidate at odds. Geraint Thomas @ 201 Laddies - Sky still need a stage win and though Thomas has looked poor in the mountains of late if he's recovered he has the strength to launch on that final climb and try and power his way to victory. And if it does come back for a sprint, I'm going to try again with Arnaud Demare @ 29 Bet365. Looks to me to be riding a bit better since his diarrhea issues ruled him out of the sprint that Kristoff won. Still believe in his pure speed and if he's on a good day and can finally nail his positioning then I think a real chance.

[antogz]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I could write pages why I think Nibali is doping but I don't want to as it is a betting forum, but what is after happening is fairly hard to take in my opinion. Michele Ferrari must be laughing now. Outside of him I fairly confident it has been a clean Tour and that is a major step forward. Onto the racing. I think a breakaway won't take this for a change and a sprinter will win. I think Cannondale will go all out on the last climb and drop Kittel and Greipel. Can Sagan beat Kristoff and Degenkolb, no in my opinon. I think Degenkolb will take it, just as he was about to sprint in the last stage Trentin cut him dead when he was going to make savage ground. He looks the most likely winner and the 9/1 with betfred looks like good value. Benatti looks like the e/w value at 33/1. 2pts e/w Degenkolb 9/1 boyles 1pt e/w Bennati 33/1 generally.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I think Nibali's dominance has not helped things, but it should be pointed out that his biggest gain of time in one stage came on Stage 5. To me just because he is 7 minutes clear doesn't mean isn't proof he is doping. Just one question antogz as I understand why this isn't the place for a big discussion, do you think that Nibali has always cheated or just this Tour?

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Questioned during the race by France Televisions, Giant-Shimano's DS Christian Guiberteau said: “With five riders in the lead, it's a race scenario favourable for a bunch sprint finish. Cannondale was quick to ride behind the breakaway with us, Lotto did a bit too and Katusha should cooperate soon. Usually in the last stage before the time trial and Paris, it's more difficult to control the race but many teams want the same thing today. John Degenkolb has recovered from his injury. He's really motivated. If Marcel Kittel overcomes the hill before the finish, he's faster than John but more probably, it's a good finish for John

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Interesting. I took a bit of Degenkolb in play after seeing the break is relatively small. On Nibali, I think another important thing to note is that nobody believed they could beat him. In the past, you normally had someone around who genuinely intended to challenge for yellow. Even Lance had a motivated Basso or Ullrich who had the intent to try and win it. None of Pinot, JC Peraud, Valverde or Bardet have believed they could win yellow, and throughout all the mountain stages have seemed far more interested in racing each other than Nibali. That's allowed Nibali to gain extra seconds, and as pointed out, the cobblestones stage played a huge part. Honestly, if Froome and Contador weren't out, I think we'd be looking at one of the tightest finishes in history, and instead of 15 seconds separating 2-4, it might have been 1-3. Frankly, I found some of Tony Martin's back to back efforts to be more suspicious. Nibali has only really powered on the final climb. Martin spent two days back to back essentially riding away from the peleton for 100km+. Not that I necessarily mind!

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I agree CP we would have had one hell of a race if Froome and Contador were still around and add Quintana to the mix, you essentially have 3 of the top 4 Grand Tour riders missing. It isn't as if this effort has come from nowhere and that is why I asked the question if you think he has always doped. I was surprised by Martin's back to back efforts, but then I guess that is what he is good at and he has been fairly quiet since. Also if Cav had been in the race I doubt either would have happened.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th I was on Degenkolb as well after I posted that quote so a rather annoying finish to the stage. Still at least he wasn't in the crash.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Hopefully everyone is okay after the crash. Bardet went down and was stretching so hopefully he's okay. Never great to see a crash but I think it was hugely helpful to me in the end. Wonder what price Tony will be tomorrow? I'm thinking 1.40 max.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Paddy's went 1/3 Martin but it didn't last long and is now 1/4.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th It's probably more of a stage to be betting on Top 3 than the winner. I've had some pretty good success at opposing stage favourites this year but even I'm not daring enough to oppose Tony in a time trial.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

It's probably more of a stage to be betting on Top 3 than the winner. I've had some pretty good success at opposing stage favourites this year but even I'm not daring enough to oppose Tony in a time trial.

Given what he did earlier in the Tour as well you have to think he will be near impossible to beat unless the weather is to play a part. It looks like it is going to be a win only market as well which also isn't a surprise.

[GrandaddyCrunk]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Maybe I'm wrong here but my book has Peraud 2/1 to beat Nibali in the time trial tomorrow...Surely that is completely overpriced?! I know Nibali has been the best rider but he has a big time gap already and if he puts in a big performance, it will just be as a display of power. Nibali isn't regarded as great in the TTs. Peraud on the other hand will be fighting for 2nd place with probably 3 others (Pinot, Valverded, TJVG) and is a very good time trialist. This is his chance to put in a big ride and win 2nd (as well as get revenge for his crash last year). Surely just over 2/1 is too big for a H2H here?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Wouldn't think so. These time trials are often about who has the best recovery and condition and Nibali has also improved his TT a lot lately. I don't think there's too much value either way but would be wary of just taking the perceived better Time Trailist at this stage of the tour. Nothing for me today. Happy to get Navardauskas home yesterday and waiting for tomorrow's final stage where I'll be looking to oppose Kittel.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th

Wouldn't think so. These time trials are often about who has the best recovery and condition and Nibali has also improved his TT a lot lately. I don't think there's too much value either way but would be wary of just taking the perceived better Time Trailist at this stage of the tour. Nothing for me today. Happy to get Navardauskas home yesterday and waiting for tomorrow's final stage where I'll be looking to oppose Kittel.

I had presumed no one had tipped him up so well done yet again. You must be well into profit. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Definitely well into profit and easily the best tour ever with Nibali (100), Boom (50), Kadri (120), Martin (50), Rogers (13) and Navardauskas (81). Still very disappointed that I didn't back Majka for KoM at 301 though. In previous years I definitely would have spotted that but got lazy and content with stage success. Still, one final chance to make a big impression on the Tour ala Nibali on the final mountain stage! Not a full list of bets but two I'm willing to spec: Tony Martin @ 151 Laddies - We all saw how dominant he can be and this stage has been won by late attacks in the past (Vino, Cancellara). Martin for mine is the only one with the power to do it this year but what power it is. I recall there's some tricky, short corners with about 1km to go and it could be here he launches. Might be too tired after today but willing to go back to the well that has been so kind this tour. Elia Viviani E/W 1/4 @ ??? - A while back Viviani said once the green jersey is wrapped up they may allow him to be the sprinter at the end of the tour. With Sagan not having won yet this is obviously now unlikely as he's a great competitor but if he's also a great team-mate he may want to repay the work his team have done and work for Viviani today. For me the Italian is faster than Sagan on these pan flat finishes so it might happen. Again, with Sagan not having won this prospect is a lot less likely but I cannot ignore the comment. Reason for the ??? is I'm not sure what prices are still available. I managed to get 251 with 365 but it's now quite short there. I imagine one of the UK books that don't let me have an account has something better on offer.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th David Walsh's article in today's Sunday times is well worth reading regarding nibali and doping. I just can't understand what those who think he is are basing it on. It's been such a week tour and Nibali has been the last man standing. You only have to look at who has finished 2nd as proof of that and I think everyone would have said nibali would be at least 8 minutes in front of peraud at the start of the race. As for tomorrow I can't see past kittel myself. Think on a stage like this his team will get things spot on again. Sent from my GT-I8190N using PL Forum

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Two sprinters for me: Daniele Bennati @ 120 Betfair - Won here a few years ago and by no means the quickest I have a funny feeling that Saxo are going to try something here. There's only about 400m to go after the last corner so if you can be the first sprinter out onto the final straight it could give an advantage. Arnaud Demare @ 30 Betfair - Wide open finishing straight here plays right into his hands. Kittel is fastest with his train but without his train I honestly believe Demare is faster. His speed on stage 4 was amazing - 24th position under the 1km to go banner and about 10 bike lengths back. About 6 lengths off Kittel with 500m to go and 3 lengths with 200m to go and loses by half a bike length. His positioning is his big issue but today is a lot easier to be there at the end so if he can get his positioning right today I give him a massive chance. For mine he's at least the second fastest and given how wide the final straight is I think he's massive value.

[Darran]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Great sprint by Kittel and that final extra kick to get past Kristoff was great to watch.

[owenclass]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Anybody here get Nibali at 7/1 before Froome got injured i managed to do it because it was good odds for a quality rider

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Tour De France Cycling 2014 > July 5th - 27th Well done to everyone who backed Nibali and AG2R on the team classification. And if anyone took Sagan or Pinot, but I don't think there were? And to Antogz for picking the winner of that other jersey.