Australian Open 2014

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Llodra/Mahut to beat Kubot/Lindstedt for a 6/10 stake at 1.70 with Youwin One more bet for me on Thursday and I will be going with the favorites here. They are yet to drop a set in this event and, given their pedigree, they should have the edge over the new pairing of Kubot/Lindstedt (they did play three matches together in 2004 according to my knowledge, but there you go). After all, their 2-0 victories against Peya/Soares and Paes/Stepanek looked very impressive indeed. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/llodra-mahut-vs-kubot-lindstedt-betting-the-french-duo-should-have-the-edge-on-thursday

[neilovan]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Looking at the 2 new partnerships in men's tennis (Becker/Djokovic, Federer / Edberg), you have to reckon that the Federer one will be far more successful than Djokovic/Becker combo. Federer looks very sharp, and seems to have adjusted his game fractionally. He took care of Zonga easily. There is not much to be done at this level, maybe a few tweeks and strategies that will win you those 3 or 4 critical points. Edberg, being such an incredible serve and volleyer has encouraged Federer to shorten points slightly. This has worked really well, as this is not the Federer of his absolute physical peak. His strategy has to be, shorten points and be more aggressive when in control. For me it's more of a mental thing with Federer. In pure talent probably the greatest player in history. But its a strange situation. He used to be able to beat opponents by beating their strength. Now he needs to do it by denying an opponents strength's. It's a subtle thing, that his ego has struggled with. I have not been impressed with Murray. He looks so pained , like it's such a burden to play these games. He has had no really tough tests so far, and if he starts in his normal manner (slowly) he will be in trouble quickly. I am happy with 3 separate bets. Federer to win the opening set and Federer to win the match 3 sets to 1 and fed to win the match

Triple bingo, nice day :cigar

[owenclass]

Re: Australian Open 2014

So is that "5 sets" bet supposed to be a saver if Federer doesn't win it in four?

yes but the 3-1 came through for me

[owenclass]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Agnieszka Radwanska vs Dominika Cibulkova over 21.5 games 10/11 skybet well who have thought that these two would be meeting in the semi final of a grand slam these two are so desperate to get through to the final so this is going to be some match Tomas Berdych vs Stanislas Wawrinka Wawrinka to 3-1 11/4 skybet i think this will be berdych last match of the tournament as wawrinka is playing the best tennis of his life

[Torque]

Re: Australian Open 2014 That's probably it for me this tournament. Four winners from thirty bets and a 14% yield. Best of luck to those of you having a punt on the remaining matches. :ok

[neilovan]

Re: Australian Open 2014 I have a funny feeling that Li Na wins in two quick sets against Bouchard. She's been there and done it (it being making the final). If memory serves me correct 2011 and last year Aussie Open finalist ? Bouchard : There is also normally an emotional and mental 'let-down' after a big win (against Invanovic), and the occasion may be too big for her. I'm hoping so and am happy for 2 units on the under 19.5 games for 2 units at evens

[larry_david]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Hi guys. First post on this thread and need your advice. I'm not sure if this is the right place to post this but seeing as it's for the Aussie open, here we go. Backed Eugenie Bouchard pre-tourni each way and then throughout the tournament as she has progressed. So have the following bets. £2.07 ew 125/1, £2.50 ew 200/1 and £1.00 ew 250/1. Each bet is 1/2 the odds so obviously need her to get to the final for a half decent pay out alone. What I'm asking here is for some advice from fellow punters. I can't really smash on Li Na at her odds so is there anyway I can sort of cover the bet? If this is in the wrong place then I apologise, I just can't really think of any way to cover the bet without smashing huge money on. Thanks in advance if anyone has any suggestions

[Johnny1]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Sorry Larry i cant see anyway other than the one you cant do,nice bet good luck.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Makarova/Vesnina to beat Errani/Vinci for a 5/10 stake at 2.37 with Bet365 This is a coin-flip at worst, but I would actually give a small edge to the Russians here. Errani/Vinci crushed them in the Australian Open semis last year, but Makarova/Vesnina have won the two most recent clashes between the two teams, so it seems that the rivalry is starting to turn around a little bit. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/makarova-vesnina-vs-errani-vinci-betting-the-russian-duo-has-what-it-takes-to-clinch-the-title-in-melbourne

[Johnny1]

Re: Australian Open 2014 I fancy taking a chance on Cibulkova to win against Radwanska.Both players were superb in their last matches but i feel Cibulkova goes for more winning shots than her opponent and more often than not she makes them.Radwanska is great at keeping a rally alive but waits for her opponent to make an error rather than going for a winner.I dont know enough about both players service games to pick one over another but was very impressed by Cibulkova and think she has a good chance to win at 2/1 Bet365.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Rafael Nadal (-2.5) to beat Roger Federer for a 6/10 stake at 1.97 with Pinnacle Back Rafael Nadal (-6.5) to beat Roger Federer for a 2/10 stake at 4.50 with Paddy Power Many will surely be backing Roger Federer now that he has beaten Tsonga and Murray, but I am just not seeing it to be honest. Nadal is still very much the nightmare match-up for him and, if he gets his passing shots working early on, I can see him running away with the win pretty comfortably. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/nadal-vs-federer-betting-it-s-hard-to-argue-with-nadal-s-incredible-record-against-roger-federer

[Abd El Kader french]

Re: Australian Open 2014 @Czech , have you some infos about Nadal palm injury ?

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014

@Czech ' date=' have you some infos about Nadal palm injury ?[/quote'] No, but that seems like the only thing that could stop him and I am willing to take that risk.

[Abd El Kader french]

Re: Australian Open 2014 GL of course, i stay out of this match

[tk2wndw]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Ya, I am taking Nadal in spite of the blister. He did have a few wild serves because of that but let's not forget, when was the last time you could take Nadal at -170 vs Federer. Last year, it was a minimum of -300 whenever these two played so I will gladly take the risk that he can fight thru the blister and get to the final.

[neilovan]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Wawrinka v Berdych Wawrinka stands at the door of the Australian open final Last 3 meetings 2013 US open Wawrinka won .... 3-6 6-1 7-6 6-2 2013 Davis Cup (Clay) Berdych won ... 3-6 4-6 6-3 6-7 2013 ATP FInals Wawrinka 3-6 7-6 3-6 When Wawrinka got on top of him in the US Open, he rolled him over. Similar conditions, Hard Court, sea level should see a repeat here. No major fatigue issues as a day and half break clears that away I think Wawrinka wins this in 4. My feeling is that his all around game is just way to strong for Berdych at this point. I don't think these will be massively competitive sets (Maybe 1 going to a breaker) and 3 sets of 28 games (10,9,9) , so over/under 41.5 match games is tricky as all hell The straight Wawrinka win is the way to go. I can only get odds of 1.67 but more than good for me for 4 units May also put 2 units down on Wawrinka to win in 4 sets which is 3.2

[homunculus]

Re: Australian Open 2014 I must oppose Czech in this: Federer to bt Nadal @2.43 local bookie (9/10) Nadal may be bad matchup for Federer, but matchups have no meaning at this AO, as we have witnessed in still growing number of encounters. Nadal spent good deal of his forces to beat Dimitrov. Yes, this young Bulgarian almost got him. Now there is this infamous blister on Rafa's left palm. I don't know how many of you just suffer a blister, but I can assure you this is pretty annoying :-) Rafa's severe top-spin requires superfirm grip, and that's where the UE's will have their origin. Fedex is inform and if Dimitrov was able to start 6-3 and TB, I think Federer is going to take advantage. edit: 1 ball bookie recommended

[tadley]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Advice please I hope I'm allowed to ask for advice on this forum. I have a bet on Wawrinka to win the Australian Open at 66/1. I can currently lay it off at Betfair at 3/1. I was wondering if the price is likely to better or worse than 3/1 after Nadal/Federer match has concluded. So should I take the 3/1 now or wait. Thanks in anticipation.

[Kozzin Benson]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Advice please I hope I'm allowed to ask for advice on this forum. I have a bet on Wawrinka to win the Australian Open at 66/1. I can currently lay it off at Betfair at 3/1. I was wondering if the price is likely to better or worse than 3/1 after Nadal/Federer match has concluded. So should I take the 3/1 now or wait. Thanks in anticipation.

I think it depends who gets through to the final If Nadal gets through I think the price will be better If Federer gets through it may be better Personally I would wait until nearer the start time or monitor price from end of second semi final Good call to back Wawrinka early on at 66-1! There may be some other opinions on here from the guys who have been posting a lot during tournament

[Torque]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Advice please I hope I'm allowed to ask for advice on this forum. I have a bet on Wawrinka to win the Australian Open at 66/1. I can currently lay it off at Betfair at 3/1. I was wondering if the price is likely to better or worse than 3/1 after Nadal/Federer match has concluded. So should I take the 3/1 now or wait. Thanks in anticipation.

I'm not sure the prices will be all that different no matter who Wawrinka faces in the final. He has only beaten Federer once in 16 meetings, and he has never beaten Nadal in a dozen meetings. In normal circumstances, I would expect Nadal to be shorter against Wawrinka than Federer would be, but because of the injury issues Nadal has been experiencing that might cause his price to go up. I guess it depends on how the Nadal/Federer match plays out - if Nadal wins and doesn't have any injury problems then laying Wawrinka now might be best, but if Nadal wins despite continuing to struggle with injury or if Federer wins then you could lay Wawrinka after the match. Personally, I would not lay the bet off as I think it contains great value, but I can understand that you want to lock in some profit.

[neilovan]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Advice please I hope I'm allowed to ask for advice on this forum. I have a bet on Wawrinka to win the Australian Open at 66/1. I can currently lay it off at Betfair at 3/1. I was wondering if the price is likely to better or worse than 3/1 after Nadal/Federer match has concluded. So should I take the 3/1 now or wait. Thanks in anticipation.

I think I would wait for the semi-final outcome, and possibly look at set betting against Wawrinka

[neilovan]

Re: Australian Open 2014 I the early rounds I thought Nadal was fantastic. His intensity was amazing, with incredible physicality. Bernard Tomic was on the way to a hiding when he quit. Kokkinakis was a no contest 6-2 6-4 6-2 That little popinjay Monfils got a really good beating 6-1, 6-2, 6-3 He had a tough match against a very good player in Nishikori, even though three sets , they were all very tough and close. Both TIE-breakers produced highlight tennis. I don't think Nadal made 2 errors in that 3rd set breaker Against Dimitrov, it was very stop start/jerky with no real flow. Also the court shadow was in the middle of the court during the 4th set breaker. It's very tough to hit the ball perfectly when it comes out of shadow or goes into shadow. Interestingly Nadal has won his last 4 TIE breakers. SO he gets it done when it counts. I thought the Federer match against Murray was poor tennis. Some of the mistakes, made two great players look average. You simply cannot compare the current Federer with that of 6 years previous. The 2007 model was so fantastic it was breathtaking. The talent / shot-making, anticipation and natural ability made him untouchable.... (he made all 4 Major finals in 2007 and won 3) On that form he was probably the greatest player ever... So taking Federer's diminished ability and fading skills against Nadal's blistered hand. One massive thing to consider is style matchup's. Federer has a terrible matchup with his 1 handed backhand v Nadal's massively top spun forehand. With the racquet's, and the stringing technology available , this matchup will cost Federer. The one handed backhand will break down against this constant massive topspin / heavy ball pounding. Nadal to win this and I am happy with my betting max here of 6 units. (I have had an unreal run at the Aussie open , winning every bet placed. Been freaky, but profitable)

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Advice please I hope I'm allowed to ask for advice on this forum. I have a bet on Wawrinka to win the Australian Open at 66/1. I can currently lay it off at Betfair at 3/1. I was wondering if the price is likely to better or worse than 3/1 after Nadal/Federer match has concluded. So should I take the 3/1 now or wait. Thanks in anticipation.

I would wait and see how the semi unfolds.

[keepsakes]

Re: Australian Open 2014 First things first: I have no betting interest in the Nadal - Federer Match and I am a huuge Federer fan. Here are my two cents: Nadal has had a huge run since the 7-month layoff and has done extraordinarily well. He played 3 slams and won 2 etc etc. He never sustains form for 10-12 months. After all the psychological and emotional drain over this stretch I reckon a let down is impending. I watched all his matches and he got broken by Kei and Dimitrov every time he took the lead. Rafa needed two breakers each against his last two opponents. In his own words he was lucky not to be down 2 sets to one against the Bulgarian. The courts are playing faster and he has a blister. Clearly, the blister becomes more troublesome through the match. As for Federer, he really has no pressure here. They are playing each other after maybe 2 years (slam) and I don't ever recall Roger being completely free of pressure or expectation. In my mind, Federer has already exceeded his expectations. He has a new raquet and a new coach. He has made some tweaks and his movement is good. He is going for broke early in the rally and playing with sublime touch at the net. Volleying would have been a bad idea had the courts stayed the same. However, the plexicushion is playing faster than before and that s why Nadal/Nole/Ferrer have been less clinical. Andy is a good returner - probably the best after nole or maybe the best. The Scot mentioned in his press conference that Federer served very well the first two sets. With the new raquet I do think Federer is serving more effectively. Federer serving well. No pressure. Excellent movement. Superb volleying at the net. Lots of high-risk going-for-broke shots. He has no hesitation!I don't think Nadal will ever win an Australian open irrecpective of whether he beats Federer here.If Nadal wins, it has to be in straight sets. The longer the match goes, the worse Rafa will get here.I can't see Rafa winning Tie Breakers against Federer here. Federer in 4.

[TopJimmy]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Roger Federer to win the 1st set 6-3 @ 13/2 with PaddyPower Back Roger Federer to win the 1st set 6-1 @ 40/1 with Ladbrokes Back Roger Federer to win the 1st set 6-0 @ 325/1 with PaddyPower I wish I had posted earlier as Ladbrokes were offering the 3 above bets at 8/1, 80/1 and 500/1 respectively, but the above still represent value for me. Matches between these two usually start with Federer all guns blazing until Nadal gets warmed up and starts to grind him down. Don't know about the last part but I think the first set is likely to follow the same pattern - added to this is the fact that, with the help of his new racquet (which he says is giving him 'easy power'), Federer is holding a very high percentage of his service points this week and will be very tough to break. In addition Nadal has a hand blister which he says is making serving uncomfortable and I think we saw that against Dimitrov. Simply put there is a chance the opening set could be one-sided and the above prices are simply far too big.

[Torque]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Back Roger Federer to win the 1st set 6-3 @ 13/2 with PaddyPower Back Roger Federer to win the 1st set 6-1 @ 40/1 with Ladbrokes Back Roger Federer to win the 1st set 6-0 @ 325/1 with PaddyPower I wish I had posted earlier as Ladbrokes were offering the 3 above bets at 8/1, 80/1 and 500/1 respectively, but the above still represent value for me. Matches between these two usually start with Federer all guns blazing until Nadal gets warmed up and starts to grind him down. Don't know about the last part but I think the first set is likely to follow the same pattern - added to this is the fact that, with the help of his new racquet (which he says is giving him 'easy power'), Federer is holding a very high percentage of his service points this week and will be very tough to break. In addition Nadal has a hand blister which he says is making serving uncomfortable and I think we saw that against Dimitrov. Simply put there is a chance the opening set could be one-sided and the above prices are simply far too big.

Best of luck TopJimmy. I should warn you though, there's a chance that you'll be accused of taking the mickey with bets like that as the prices are so high. ;)

[TopJimmy]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Best of luck TopJimmy. I should warn you though' date=' there's a chance that you'll be accused of taking the mickey with bets like that as the prices are so high. ;)[/quote'] Until the 6-1 cops, then they'll be falling at my feet! Though if Nadal stuffs him 6-2 I'll say someone hacked my account and posted this nonsense.

[Mattyos]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Been a long time reader/fan of the forum and figured it was time to chuck my 2 cents worth in! Nadal v Federer On current form I can't agree that this is a "bad match up" for Fed. Let's take a look at their tournaments: Nadal - Tomic injured himself in his first service game of the match and was still able to keep up with Nadal on 1 leg until he quit at the end of the 1st set. Kokkanakis is a 17 year old Aussie WC ranked 500-something in the world. While Nadal cleaned him up in straight sets, it certainly wasn't the demolishing you would expect of a dominant world number 1 against such an inexperienced, low ranked player. Nishikori could have beaten Nadal with a few points here or there and same with Dimitrov. Of greatest concern to me is Nadal's admission that the blister on is hand is affecting his serve, and he seemed genuinely worried about it. Possible gamesmanship?? Federer - completely dismantled Tsonga who was never in the match and while Murray was clearly in trouble with his back, in my opinion Fed was still outclassing him. If Nadal's serve does start to struggle I can see Fed jumping all over it, charging into the net and knocking off volley winner after volley winner. So for me the $2.30 on offer for a Federer victory at Centrebet is certainly more than attractive. Depending on how I'm feeling (i.e how many beers I can jam in between finishing work at 5pm and the match starts at 7.30pm) I may have a small crack at Nadal to win the 1st set and Fed to win the match in 4. So there you go, my first - and possibly last! - post. Good luck!

[Abd El Kader french]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Back Roger Federer to win the 1st set 6-3 @ 13/2 with PaddyPower Back Roger Federer to win the 1st set 6-1 @ 40/1 with Ladbrokes Back Roger Federer to win the 1st set 6-0 @ 325/1 with PaddyPower I wish I had posted earlier as Ladbrokes were offering the 3 above bets at 8/1, 80/1 and 500/1 respectively, but the above still represent value for me. Matches between these two usually start with Federer all guns blazing until Nadal gets warmed up and starts to grind him down. Don't know about the last part but I think the first set is likely to follow the same pattern - added to this is the fact that, with the help of his new racquet (which he says is giving him 'easy power'), Federer is holding a very high percentage of his service points this week and will be very tough to break. In addition Nadal has a hand blister which he says is making serving uncomfortable and I think we saw that against Dimitrov. Simply put there is a chance the opening set could be one-sided and the above prices are simply far too big.

GL Topjimmy I like your bets :) I stay out of this game but i think you right , this injury in palm hand of Nadal can be very handicapped for him, and if Roger stay at his AO level he can break him twice or more , hope for you it gone be in 1st ... You can also put a small stake on Fedex lose 1st and win match , i have it on betcity @6.00 GL Anyway

[neilovan]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Been a long time reader/fan of the forum and figured it was time to chuck my 2 cents worth in! Nadal v Federer On current form I can't agree that this is a "bad match up" for Fed. Let's take a look at their tournaments:

You are not understanding my version of bad match-up. Bad match-up is the one handed backhand versus this incredible booming topspin forehand from Nadal. AT critical points in this match, Nadal will win this match-up. Djokovic and Murray can nullify it with the 2 handed backhand. Federer, Gasquet and Wawrinka will struggle with it. Not that they are bad players, just the stringing techniques and the rev's that Nadal is generating with his forehand is incessantly brutal. Also, you guys are overplaying this blister thing. If it gets really bad, Nadal will stop playing and all bets are off so it's actually a non-entity...