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CzechPunter

Australian Open 2014

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Just to clarify,my critics above wasn't towards anyones picks but to her as a professional player.Watched parts of the game and she just looked awful. Glad people wanna share,take responsibility for our own plays.

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Re: Australian Open 2014

Just to clarify,my critics above wasn't towards anyones picks but to her as a professional player.Watched parts of the game and she just looked awful. Glad people wanna share,take responsibility for our own plays.
:ok I think that we all understood you this way. Flipkens really was poor and surprisingly passive.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 poor day really. I think heat was a big factor for Tursunov being an old man and Janowicz won but didnt cover the handicap. Nieminen should of done alot better and had 15-40 in 4th set to break but to be honest even if Nieminen was serving for the match Fognini would of retired like he always does when he is losing. Such a child. -2.96pts for the day. +14.04 pts for tournament

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Jeremy Chardy (FRA) to beat David Ferrer (ESP). 3,95 @ pinnacle (8/10). I really think Chardy has a decent chance in this match-up. My bet was against Ferrer both against Gonzalez and Mannarino. Both bets won as I´ve chosen the overs and against Mannarino winning a set. But now, it is time to go out for Ferrer. In these days he lacks the consistency to push every ball back as he used to in his best days. His serve isn´t impressive and has never been, but when it comes to longer rallies, he was the better except when he was playing against the likes of Djokovic and Nadal. But this year, his baseline game is not that convincing anymore with Ferrer producing unforced errors and lacking depth and power. So Chardy with his powerful serve and strokes should have any chance here. The fast conditions will suit him. Almost 4,0 is ridiculous, I would have chosen odds around 2,5 maybe. I am also looking foward to the handicap and set winning lines. Edit: Torque´s picks are NOT ridiculous. It is only ridiculous when some people cannot handle them and expect his outright picks to win. All of his three picks yesterday were good ones as in all three ties the handicaps and overs have been reached. Keep on going Torque!

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Jack Sock (+2.5 sets) to beat Gael Monfils for a 5/10 stake at 2.30 with Pinnacle Good price here I would say. Not only is Jack Sock good enough to win a set by playing well, but Gael Monfils is hardly the most consistent performer around and might drop a set at some point just because he starts to misfire a little bit. At odds against, this looks like a good play to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/sock-vs-monfils-betting-jack-sock-looks-value-to-take-a-set-off-the-talented-frenchman

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Victor Hanescu (+2.5 sets) to beat Milos Raonic for a 4/10 stake at 2.05 with Pinnacle Back Victor Hanescu to beat Milos Raonic for a 1/10 stake at 6.34 with Pinnacle I went against Milos Raonic in the first round and, after seeing him play well below his capabilities, I am willing to do so once again. Victor Hanescu should be even tougher than Daniel Gimeno-Traver, so fancy him to get at least a set against the powerful Canadian. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/hanescu-vs-raonic-betting-milos-raonic-looks-set-to-struggle-once-again

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Re: Australian Open 2014 (2points) Bellucci +2.5 sets vs Tsonga @2.18 unibet, 12.15pm local time, Australian OPen 2rd round. Bellucci is dangerous. Massive serve and forehand. I think on clay he has a good chance of beating Tsonga, but this is hard court. Still the price is too short for Tsonga @1.083?? Score prediction: Tsonga 64 67 61 67 76 (2points) Cilic 3-0 vs Gilles Simon @2.82 betfair, 1.30pm local time, Australian open 2nd round. I know Simon beat Cilic consistently on grass, clay and hard court leading 3-0. But I've read Simon had ankle injury and had to save 7 match points against his last opponent in a 5 sets match!! Wow!! It's worth a shot betting against an injured player.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Dusan Lajovic (+2.5 sets) to beat Kei Nishikori for a 4/10 stake at 2.25 with Unibet Back Dusan Lajovic to beat Kei Nishikori for a 1/10 stake at 8.95 with Pinnacle Last one for Thursday. Nishikori has always been know for his shaky fitness and he looked rather fatigued after that epic five-setter against Marinko Matosevic, so I can see him struggling to play three flawless sets in a row here. His sheer class will probably get him through to the next round at the end of the day, but Lajovic is good enough to have his own say in the matters. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/lajovic-vs-nishikori-betting-dusan-lajovic-could-go-well-against-the-japanese-number-one

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Re: Australian Open 2014

Edit: Torque´s picks are NOT ridiculous. It is only ridiculous when some people cannot handle them and expect his outright picks to win. All of his three picks yesterday were good ones as in all three ties the handicaps and overs have been reached. Keep on going Torque!
But then maybe he should have tried handicaps, not directly heavy upsets, right?! Handicaps for very heavy favorites like Novak are way too low against lower ranked players, and often at such tournaments he might spare energy and make at least one out of the three sets competitive, which in most cases is enough to beat the handicaps. So, in this respect, backing handicaps makes sense. But betting Mayer to bet Djokovic in Grand Slam is just way too lavish and extraordinary.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Guys, we have had similar discussions before, so let's just accept that everyone has a different betting strategy. It is very much up to Torque what he wishes to go for, if you like his analysis but don't like the pick, there is nothing preventing you from backing the handicap instead of the outright. :ok

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Re: Australian Open 2014

Torque do you just bet underdogs? :eek
Generally yes. If you bet favourites or around evens as many do, you are going to be more successful in terms of results. That is a statistical fact as implied by the odds, but it doesn't necessarily translate into profit. That said, there are many on this forum that are very good at picking marginal favourites and even money shots, and are certainly better at it than I am. I have found over time that I am generally more successful the higher the odds are, and so I decided at the start of the season that my contribution to the forum would be to focus on underdogs that in my opinion offer value, and whilst I have been backing these players outright I have stressed that handicaps could also be a good option. The reason I don't back handicaps is simple. I only bet on Betfair and liquidity in these markets is poor, however what I like about Betfair is that whenever you strike a bet, no matter what the odds, if you win you always get paid. So far in this tournament I've only had one winner which doesn't look very good, so I can understand those who have been critical of my approach.

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Re: Australian Open 2014

no disrespect torque but ur picks are just outlandish.
I wouldn't disagree with you there. In the long term though, I expect to be in profit as in my opinion each pick has more chance of winning than the prices suggest.

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Re: Australian Open 2014

But then maybe he should have tried handicaps, not directly heavy upsets, right?! Handicaps for very heavy favorites like Novak are way too low against lower ranked players, and often at such tournaments he might spare energy and make at least one out of the three sets competitive, which in most cases is enough to beat the handicaps. So, in this respect, backing handicaps makes sense. But betting Mayer to bet Djokovic in Grand Slam is just way too lavish and extraordinary.
Again I wouldn't disagree with this. However, I've been betting this way since the start of last season and laying the top players in certain matches when they are priced below 1.10 has seen me make a profit.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 I went through a stage last year on the clay court where I was constantly questioned because of my picks. I don't see why people have to justify their picks. This isn't a tipping service. It's a forum where we SHARE tips. Surely there is a difference? This is why we lose so many posters each year. It's also why I come and go and many others do. Let the man pick how he wants. He is no lower in profit for this thread then others. If he was -50pts every thread then it would deserve the criticism but I really like threads where you have the "10pts on 1.16" punters mixed with the "1pt on 20.00" punters.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 I also disagree with many of Torque's picks but I respect the work he has put on this board and I think many people are being overly critical of his picks. This is a public forum and everyone is free to follow or not follow any particular pick. With that being said, it'll take only one or two picks for Torque to see some green.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Govortsova to bt Radwanska @10.23 local bookie (1/10) This bet is based on the observation that Aga has problems with her shoulder since the end of Hopman Cup. She handed out the match in Sydney to Bethanie Mattek-Sands last week and she went into three sets with Putintseva. Govortsova already forced her to retire once (New Haven 2012), which was kinda revenge for Aga doing the same at Wimbledon 2011 :-) Quite possibly the heat plus the shoulder will make the result. As an accompagnying bet, I also go for Govortsova - Radwanska 18,5+ games @2.20 local bookie (2/10)

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Re: Australian Open 2014

That is not much input' date=' is it? Everyone takes whatever bets he/she likes. Nobody is forcing you to take those bets - if you think that they are ridiculous, you can simply decide to not follow them. You may be a better tipster than Torque, you may even be the best of them all. Why not share some picks and views then?[/quote'] I don't take the bets, but i mean in general that the results in advantage of the bookies last night. So, let us bounce back next night. I like everyone who shares picks here and hope we can make all profit.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 See some decent value in Simon, Lu and Kyrgios this night. All players are underrated by the bookies in my opinion. Simon showed in the first round he is totally fit, had some luck and safe some matchpoints. But all with all, Cilic was also poor. Lu is in great form this year, Dimitrov don't showed his best tennis till now. For me 50/50 and maybe Lu is a bit more fav after his perfomances this year. Paire, i don't like him the last months. Also not great this year and Kyrgios with the crowd can be amazing things in my eyes. Hanescu - Raonic over 3.5 sets and Lajovic +9 games also bets for me. Nishikori don't good in the first round and 63 63 63 is enough for a push on Lajovic side, must be possible i guess.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 McHale to beat Wozniacki handicap +5.5 Skybet 5/6 I’ve never been totally convinced by Wozniacki and feel the high rankings that she has achieved somewhat flatters her. She had an easy first round match losing just the two games. But this is the exception rather than the rule as she rarely thrashes opponents. McHale is a very solid player and rarely gets turned over by counter punchers such as Wozniacki. In fact she actually leads their head to heads 2-1 (one each on a hard court) There is every reason to think she will keep this close and I believe it would be a mammoth task for Wozniacki to cover the 5.5 games handicap.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 a few selections for the second round: Marin Cilic vs Gilles Simon over 35.5 games 4/5 paddy power this match has a chance of going to a fifth set as they is not much to choose from while cilic was not too impressive in his first match simon was pretty good in his so expect quite few breaks of serve and some tight sets as well Jo Wilfried Tsonga vs Thomaz Bellucci over 34.5 games 4/5 skybet Tsonga to win 3-1 14/5 skybet well tsonga should win in three but he has tough opponent and tsonga has just come back from injury also the heat is causing problems for the players i expect tsonga to drop a set Jack Sock vs Gael Monfils over 32.5 games 4/5 paddy power Monfils to win 3-1 11/4 skybet i have been impreesed with young player and i think he could give monfils a match maybe winning a set onfils in playing great at the moment and should win but dont underestimate his opponent as he is talented Dusan Lajovic vs Kei Nishikori over 30.5 games 4/5 paddy power im been impressed with lajovic in his first round match and can cause nishikori some problems as he is not playing his best the overs looks the best bet as i think the first set will be tight Yen Hsun Lu vs Grigor Dimitrov over 39.5 games 10/11 paddy power well lu has been playing great lately and his opponent is not playing as good but will be up for this match as well his opponent so expect a four or five set match and maybe not many breaks of serve Christina Mchale vs Caroline Wozniacki over 19.5 games 8/11 skybet im still not sure about wozniacki as she always struggles in early rounds of grand slams and her opponent is tough player so expect a tough match for wozniacki it might just go three sets Agnieszka Radwanska vs Olga Govortsova over 17.5 games 4/5 paddy power i expect Radwanska to win this but will her opponent will make it tough for her as she has been impressive and also radwanska struggled in her first match and maybe the heat might get to her

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Dusan Lajovic to beat Kei Nishikori @ 11.00 Betfair I agree with what's been said about this match so far, and in particular that Nishikori's physical fragility could be a factor in a possible surprise loss for the Japanese. Five sets against Matosevic is unlikely to have helped him ahead of facing Lajovic, even though the Serb hasn't had that much success on the main tour. If this does develop into a physical battle, which must be a possibility due to the conditions, then this match could go either way and so Lajovic is the player I want to be on at this price.

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