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CzechPunter

Australian Open 2014

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Re: Australian Open 2014

any views on this - http://www.sportinglife.com/tennis/news/article/553/9118859/betting-charge-labelled-unfair especially this quote: "What our employee on court was doing is exactly what umpires do. They send information from the court back to other organisations that use it to profit from betting. In this case, the organisations are bookmakers and it is done through the tennis authorities' agreement with Enetpulse. However, the principle is identical." Obv we all know about people who do courtsiding, etc. But never ever thought there were companies set up to take such advantages. And organizers too? I am scared to bet on betfair or inplay now TBH.
Tennis is so fast-paced that the only time I'd ever consider an in-play bet is when both players are sitting down.So the strategy they're using there wouldn't unsettle me much.Even when betting between games the only advantage they're going to get is possibly the first point in a game.Seems crazy to me to back anything else in the middle of a game as you'd probably be going with the player that has momentum at that point and therefore get no value at all.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Denis Istomin to beat Novak Djokovic @ 55.00 Betfair Djokovic played Istomin at this tournament four years ago, and beat him without breaking a sweat. He dropped just four games on his way to a straight sets win, and obviously a repeat performance is entirely possible here. However, I think Istomin is a better player now than when he last met Djokovic in a Grand Slam, and he certainly has more experience than he did then. He also took the first set in a three set loss to Djokovic in Montreal last year, which suggests that he can be competitive against the Serb at the big tournaments. I don't expect the Uzbek to win this match, but I do think he has a better chance than this price is saying. Djokovic hasn't really demolished anyone so far in this tournament, and even if Istomin does go down here he might be able to make a game of it and cover the handicaps.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Hi Torque, nice idea to take Istomin. I think there will be a better chance than 20% to steal a set here and so I support your bet by taking Istomin Set HC+2.5 @5.00 with Youwin

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Dominika Cibulkova to beat Carla Suarez-Navarro for a 6/10 stake at 1.54 with Pinnacle Back Dominika Cibulkova (-3.5) to beat Carla Suarez-Navarro for a 4/10 stake at 2.01 with Pinnacle My biggest bet of the tournament so far. Dominika Cibulkova has been on fire so far, beating Schiavone and Vogele for the loss of just eight games, which is quite impressive if you ask me. Meanwhile, Suarez-Navarro could have easily lost against Galina Voskoboeva, so there you go - and she is certainly the worse player of the two as far as hard courts are concerned. And if this match gets tight, Cibulkova should have the edge given that Suarez-Navarro had to play a very long match in the hottest part of the day on Thursday. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cibulkova-vs-suarez-navarro-betting-dominika-cibulkova-can-cruise-to-the-next-round

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Brilliance from Chardy, not converting *40-0 into a set. :sad And there I was, thinking that serve was his biggest weapon. Five set points missed in the second set, alongside a mini-break lead in the tie-break. Back Rafael Nadal (-6.5 games) to beat Gael Monfils for a 7/10 stake at 1.93 with Pinnacle Monfils might win the odd tight set, but that is about as far as I can see him going here. Nadal covered this handicap against Monfils in Doha over three sets, so he should be able to do so over the longer distance as well. The surface in Melbourne looks a touch slower than the one in Doha as well, which is not going to help Monfils either. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/nadal-vs-monfils-betting-rafael-nadal-looks-value-to-outplay-the-frenchman-once-again

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Garbine Muguruza Blanco to beat Caroline Wozniacki for a 7/10 stake at 1.94 with Pinnacle The price seems to be based on the fact that it is "Wozniacki" who is playing, but names don't really matter when it comes to the actual matches. Muguruza Blanco is 12-1 so far this season, she can hit big, and she has beaten Wozniacki before, crushing her 6-2 6-4 in Miami last year. Shouldn't she be priced as the favorite here then? I would definitely say so. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/muguruza-blanco-vs-wozniacki-betting-muguruza-blanco-to-crush-wozniacki-s-grand-slam-hopes

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Re: Australian Open 2014

Roger Vasselin 2 sets up to nil back to 2-2 5-3 up to win loses 7-5. This happens to much. Boring hell!
The irony is how we can never get through it mentally despite seeing it happen over and over again, sometimes even FOR us, not AGAINST us. I still break down when I look back and remember Paire crashing down against Granollers in Chennai!

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Muguruza to beat Wozniacki 2-0 9/4 Ladbrokes Wozniacki is fairly adept at beating players who she should beat but when she comes up against decent opponents she just doesn’t have the ability to beat them. I believe that Muguruza falls into that category. Her form this year has been very impressive indeed. She had a wobble against Kanepi in the first round but other than that she has cruised through virtually every game this year with the minimum of fuss; her only defeat being to Venus Williams. Muguruza also won their only previous meeting in straight sets in March last year at Miami. She is clearly a player on the up whereas Wozniacki is heading in the other direction. Muguruza is the bigger hitter and more aggressive player. She will hit far more winners than her opponent; leaving Wozniacki to feed on scraps from Muguruza’s errors. Unless I’m reading this all wrong I can’t understand why the bookies regard this as a coin toss: I just don’t see it that way. The safe way to play it would simply to back Muguruza at 10/11. But I don’t see many problems for Muguruza meaning a 2-0 scoreline at 9/4 looks mighty appealing.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Benoit Paire (+4.5) to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut for a 4/10 stake at 1.88 with Pinnacle Back Benoit Paire to beat Roberto Bautista-Agut for a 3/10 stake at 2.85 with Pinnacle This is obviously a ticket into the madhouse and I spent quite some time thinking about this match, but I've decided to go for what I see as value here. As far as I am concerned, Paire is the more talented guy of the two and the surface should also suit him more than it should suit the Spaniard. And yes, I am also slightly concerned about the Spaniard's ability to come back down and play a standard match after such a tremendous win over Juan Martin del Potro. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/paire-vs-bautista-agut-betting-benoit-paire-can-stop-the-spaniard-s-incredible-run

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Re: Australian Open 2014

What about Dimitrov to beat Raonic?
Yeah, that looked decent to me too and it would probably be my fifth pick of the day, but I am not going to push my luck any further. Perhaps one for the live-betting, I would like to see Dimitrov making at least a few returns early on.

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Re: Australian Open 2014

Back Garbine Muguruza Blanco to beat Caroline Wozniacki for a 7/10 stake at 1.94 with Pinnacle The price seems to be based on the fact that it is "Wozniacki" who is playing, but names don't really matter when it comes to the actual matches. Muguruza Blanco is 12-1 so far this season, she can hit big, and she has beaten Wozniacki before, crushing her 6-2 6-4 in Miami last year. Shouldn't she be priced as the favorite here then? I would definitely say so. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/muguruza-blanco-vs-wozniacki-betting-muguruza-blanco-to-crush-wozniacki-s-grand-slam-hopes
This is an interesting one. Wozniaki looked fragile against mchale and the result could easily have gone the other way. However wozniaki has a way of winning and she very well may here , the odds ore worsening on wozniaki so the bookies think likewise. Wozniaki was 2/9 before the mchale match so actually around evens here may represent value as she hasnt got bad overnight.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Stephane Robert v Martin Klizan I fancy Robert here. Was going to back him in the previous round but I bottled it. Amazingly both players only got in as lucky losers (Robert lost to berrer in final qualifier) but Robert has eased through to the 3rd round. I think his experience will help to get him past Klizan who lost to Thiem in the final qualifier. Klizan got lucky with Isner retiring in round 1 and having an easy match against Rola in round 2. Klizan has got to the 4th round of a slam before but that was at the US Open 2 years ago and he is nowhere near that kind of form at the moment. Both these players have a similar ranking but Robert looks in better form. Quite happy to back Robert here in what is the biggest match of his career. Robert to win - 6/5 (Bet365) Robert to win 3-0 - 9/2 (Bet365) small play on this bet

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Feliciano Lopez to beat Andy Murray @ 8.60 Betfair Previous meetings between these two players suggest that Lopez has very little hope of winning this match, as the Spaniard hasn't managed to beat Murray in seven attempts. This might just be his best chance of finally recording a win against the Brit though, as Murray hasn't been tested at all so far in this tournament and Lopez is a significant step up from Soeda and Millot. Not only that, but Murray didn't play last season after the US Open due to injury, and since his comeback at the start of this season he hasn't had that many matches to get used to being back on tour. So far this year the only player of any real quality that he has faced has been Florian Mayer, who beat him in three sets in Doha. I think Murray could be undercooked coming into this match, and as Lopez has looked good on serve so far in this tournament I think there is a chance this could be close. If it's anywhere near as close as their last meeting at the US Open a couple of years ago, where Murray got the better of Lopez by winning three tie-breaks, then at this price Lopez is the player I want to be on. Donald Young to beat Kei Nishikori @ 6.40 Betfair As much as Nishikori got past Lajovic in straight sets in the last round, he was fortunate that the Serb didn't really get going until the third set. It looked from what I saw as though Nishikori was finding it difficult in the heat, and if Lajovic hadn't been so slow to start the match might have lasted longer and I think then Nishikori could have been in trouble. Young has been involved in a couple of long matches, and saw the worst of the conditions against Seppi that led to play being suspended due to heat. He showed admirable resolve to come back after the suspension and beat Seppi in five sets, and assuming he has recovered from that match I think he can build on what has been a good start to the season for him. Nishikori is the better player and is more consistent, but I think he is vulnerable in this match and that Young might be able to get the big win that his potential has promised for so long. Gael Monfils to beat Rafael Nadal @ 8.80 Betfair If you look at the start Monfils has made to the season, not many players are in better form. For that reason, and even though his record against Nadal is poor and the conditions in this match might favour the Spaniard, I think his price is too big. The bottom line for me is that he has beaten Nadal more than once on hard, although never at a Grand Slam, and so this is the surface that offers Monfils the best chance of beating Nadal at one of the big tournaments. His confidence must be high right now, and he looks as motivated as he has done in quite some time. Even if he doesn't win this one, I think there is every chance he will make Nadal fight to make the next round.

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Re: Australian Open 2014

The irony is how we can never get through it mentally despite seeing it happen over and over again' date=' sometimes even FOR us, not AGAINST us. I still break down when I look back and remember Paire crashing down against Granollers in Chennai![/quote'] The way I try to approach it so that I don't go insane is to try to focus on the result, and not the journey to the result. After all, the result is all that counts in the end. I admit it's hard to do, particularly if you are following a match. Like you said, sometimes the swings in a match go for you and sometimes they go against you. In my experience, it does tend to even itself out over time. I can think of numerous examples over the last year or so where a player that I have backed has gone a set or two ahead only to lose, or a set or two behind before coming back to win. In this tournament Granollers was two sets up against Cilic and lost, and last year Robredo came back from two sets down not once but twice at the French Open when I was backing him.

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Re: Australian Open 2014

The way I try to approach it so that I don't go insane is to try to focus on the result' date=' and not the journey to the result. After all, the result is all that counts in the end. I admit it's hard to do, particularly if you are following a match. Like you said, sometimes the swings in a match go for you and sometimes they go against you. In my experience, it does tend to even itself out over time. I can think of numerous examples over the last year or so where a player that I have backed has gone a set or two ahead only to lose, or a set or two behind before coming back to win. In this tournament Granollers was two sets up against Cilic and lost, and last year Robredo came back from two sets down not once but twice at the French Open when I was backing him.[/quote'] Firstly Torque, is there any method to your betting whatsoever? Betting religiously on the long shots is as unlikely to turn a profit as betting religiously on the favourites. Can you explain please how you see your strategy being profitable over the course of the tournament? Secondly, I completely disagree with your statement above. I have played a lot of poker and as poker players we are taught to focus on our decision-making, NOT the final result . I believe it is exactly the same with betting. You can't judge whether a bet was good on whether it won on one isolated occasion. You have to ask whether it was a bet which would be profitable in the long run.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Sigh. Do we REALLY need to go through all of this AGAIN? Nobody has to explain their methods here, especially not to someone who is new here. Please, let this go or I will have to start using my mod powers, which I am obviously very fond of ;).

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Re: Australian Open 2014

Firstly Torque, is there any method to your betting whatsoever? Betting religiously on the long shots is as unlikely to turn a profit as betting religiously on the favourites. Can you explain please how you see your strategy being profitable over the course of the tournament? Secondly, I completely disagree with your statement above. I have played a lot of poker and as poker players we are taught to focus on our decision-making, NOT the final result . I believe it is exactly the same with betting. You can't judge whether a bet was good on whether it won on one isolated occasion. You have to ask whether it was a bet which would be profitable in the long run.
There is a method yes. If there wasn't, then I would be betting on every long shot and I don't do that. As to whether my strategy will be profitable over the course of the tournament, it may not be. I don't look at such short time scales, I take a more long-term view. I've been reasonably successful in the past, although there are no guarantees about success in the future. I agree with what you wrote in the second paragraph, and I see no conflict between your view and mine. I remember writing on this forum some time last year about how the result of a bet doesn't determine whether it was a good bet or not, and what I meant by what I originally wrote is that if I'm happy that my bet was a good one then I will try not to get too frustrated if the player that I've backed fails to serve out a match and then loses in a final set tie-break, for example.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Back F.Mayer/D.Ferrer - Over 3.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 1.73 with Unibet Given the way both have been playing recently, I don't think that this is going to be over in three. Despite winning 3-0, Ferrer was far from his best against Chardy and Mayer should be ready for this after brushing Janowicz aside, so fancy the over 3.5 sets bet here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/mayer-vs-ferrer-betting-a-tough-battle-should-be-on-the-cards-in-melbourne-on-sunday

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Back S.Wawrinka/T.Robredo - Over 3.5 sets for a 7/10 stake at 1.60 with Unibet This has the potential to turn into an absolute epic and I would be shocked to see a 3-0 scoreline here to be honest. Robredo leads the H2H record 6-1, but Wawrinka is obviously the better player of the two if you take everything into account and he will do everything in order to set up a match with Djokovic. A must-watch really. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/wawrinka-vs-robredo-betting-tommy-robredo-isn-t-going-to-let-wawrinka-run-away-with-an-easy-win

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