Australian Open 2014

[grumpyman]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Thanks MrMister - just wanted to check it was a guess / assumption as opposed to reading something about Flipkens having an injury worry. I know she has had problems in the past.

[grumpyman]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Going to lay Janowicz 3-0 at around 2.80 and lay Youzhny 3-0 at around 4.50 both on betfair. Just feel neither of them at quite on form. Mayer is playing particularly well. See value in both Andujar and Mayer getting a set. Will be void if there are retirements though.

[MrMister]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Thanks MrMister - just wanted to check it was a guess / assumption as opposed to reading something about Flipkens having an injury worry. I know she has had problems in the past.

yes, she had right knee problems quite often, but hope not tonight, because I backed her too :)

[Fader]

Re: Australian Open 2014 3pts J.Janowicz (-4.5 games) to beat P.Andujar 1.90 StanJames I'm sure plenty of people will be going for Andujar as a decent outside bet but he simply isn't a hard-court player. He is a slow court clay player. I would imagine him Vs a top server such as Janowicz on a fast hard court would cause him problems and I'm going to take this price as he would only need one break per set. I'll keep the stakes low because apparently Jano has an ankle injury and he certainly is the type of player to play through an injury and potentially losing. 3pts Over 39.5 games A.Dolgopolov Vs J.Chardy 1.80 Bet365 Head-2-head is 2-2 but Dolgo beat Chardy recently in straight sets. Chardy normally performs much better at the big events but Id personally side with Dolgo here. The heat is ridiculous tomorrow and I'm abit reluctant to have too many bets on handicaps so I'll stick with the overs in this one. 4pts T.Robredo to beat J.Benneteau 1.91 Skybet Robredo won both matches these 2 have played on the hard court. I'm abit surprised by the closeness of the odds here and I was expecting Robredo to be around 1.66 so I'll take this instead of any handicaps (again reluctant with heat factor) 3pts D.Tursunov to beat D.Istomin 1.80 StanJames Met 3 times and Turs won them all in straight sets. Most recent on the hard court only recently this month where he won 7-6 6-2 in preparation for this event. Istomin served OK there but his return game was woeful and I expect Turs to come through this with little problems 3-0 / 3-1. 3pts J.Nieminen to beat F.Fognini 2.10 Skybet Fognini looked good in round 1 however he was playing an injured man. Nieminen had a hard task but I think he can improve here and beat a player in Fognini who is much better on the clay then the hard. These 2 have played once on the hard and Niem won that match. Fognini is a great shot player and he prefers the slower courts like clay. I believe Fognini has only won a couple of matches here and I think he will go out tomorrow.

[Torque]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Kenny De Schepper to beat Tomas Berdych @ 30.00 >Betfair This is definitely a bet against Berdych rather than for De Schepper, as the big Frenchman is quite a limited player. He has a decent serve though, and with that comes the possibility of tie-breaks. Berdych played another big server in Karlovic in his first match of the season and was beaten in two breakers, and I don't think that he generally deals very well with opponents that can keep a match close purely because of their serve. Matches like this can be a test of temperament as much as anything else, and in my opinion Berdych is lacking in this department of his game as he can sometimes get quite frustrated from what I have seen. As I said, it's not that I think De Schepper can win this match, more that I think Berdych can lose it. For that reason, I think there is value in opposing the Czech in this match even though it's likely he will win. Nikolay Davydenko to beat Richard Gasquet @ 5.40 >Betfair Davydenko's best days may well be behind him, but this is a tournament he has done well at in the past. He had a real fight on his hands to get past Kubot in the first round, but the Pole seems to raise his game at Slams and so I think it's a better result than it looks. Gasquet beat Guez in his first match here in straight sets, but the first set was tight and he only really ran away with it in the third. He has had the upper hand against Davydenko in recent years, but when he last played the Russian on hard in Doha at the start of last season he lost the first set and only came through to win the match after winning a second set tie-break. Gasquet should win this match as Davydenko sometimes struggles with his fitness and conditions are tough, but at the same time I don't think he can necessarily be relied on from a physical perspective and so there could be some value backing Davydenko here.

[dusan.pinturicchio]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Jerzy Janowicz - Pablo Andujar over 36 @1.93 Pinnacle 5/10 My main sport is basketball, but sometimes I bet on tenis, mainly on Grand slams... Today I will take this bet for medium stake... Imho Janowicz won't win this match easy... I don't see 3-0 for Janowicz and because of that I will take over in this match... Andujar is solid player, and his style does not fit to Jerzy... Janowicz is very nervous player, with great service, but with much unforced errors per match... He is very impatient, and Andujar should use that, and try to keep ball in the ground... I think that Andujar can at least take one set here, and in this case over should be sure...

[Torque]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Adrian Mannarino to beat David Ferrer @ 19.00 >Betfair I'm going to oppose Ferrer again, and it's because he is still not anywhere near his best at the moment in my opinion. The score in his first round match against Gonzalez suggests a comfortable win, but the Colombian had his chances and could have taken a set. Mannarino beat Johnson in the first round in five sets, but given that the American played well in Auckland last week I think that's a good result. Ferrer has played Mannarino before, on clay in Madrid in what was a bizarre match that saw Mannarino bagel the Spaniard in the second set before getting bagelled himself in the third. Taking a set against Ferrer on clay in his own back yard takes some doing, and it shows the potential that Mannarino has. For me, the price on Ferrer here is justified only if he is in form, and so I'm backing Mannarino with a small stake. Leonardo Mayer to beat Novak Djokovic @ 95.00 >Betfair I think the handicaps are definitely worth a look in this match, even though I'm going to back Mayer outright. Mayer finished last season strongly by winning a Challenger on clay in Ecuador, and he flattened Montanes in his first match of this tournament. He is a decent enough player on hard, and took Murray to four sets at the US Open last year. Clearly he is highly unlikely to beat Djokovic, but as was the case when Lacko took on the Serb I don't think his price fairly reflects his chances. Alejandro Falla to beat Stanislas Wawrinka @ 10.50 >Betfair Falla came into this tournament in good form having won a Challenger on hard in France, and he took care of Kukushkin with something to spare in the first round here. Winning breeds confidence, especially in a player like Falla who can be quite up and down, and so this could be a good time for him to take on a top player like Wawrinka. The Swiss didn't have to break much of a sweat in his last match against Golubev as the Kazakh retired in the second set, and so he isn't fully match hardened even though he should be quite fresh. You can't really argue with Wawrinka's form so far this season, and his confidence is sure to be high after winning the title in Chennai, but even so he can still be prone to lapses in concentration and with Falla playing well at the moment this match might be more competitive than expected.

[Abd El Kader french]

Re: Australian Open 2014 i follow you on Mannarino win @6.50 at fonbet (live 1st set 0-2 for Mannarino)

[Pensioner65]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Ana Ivanovic to beat Annika Beck Aussie Open 2nd Rd Under 18.5 games @2.00 PaddyPower(5/10) Again crazy Melbourne temperatures of 42c make players want to finish their games as quickly as possible & get off court. I see Ivanovic trying to get this game over asap. H2H reads 1-0 win for AI last year at WTA Tokyo 6-1 6-1. The game Handicap is couple of points too high in this match. 5pts win

[seanV]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Torque do you just bet underdogs? :eek

[nickel1]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Seriously,how crap is Flipkens!?:lol Please,give this up before the end of the game...

[Alovenac]

Re: Australian Open 2014 For the most here, a bad night and another good night for the bookies.

[Sm0k3rZ]

Re: Australian Open 2014 no disrespect torque but ur picks are just outlandish.

[Armageddon]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Adrian Mannarino to beat David Ferrer @ 19.00 >Betfair I'm going to oppose Ferrer again, and it's because he is still not anywhere near his best at the moment in my opinion. The score in his first round match against Gonzalez suggests a comfortable win, but the Colombian had his chances and could have taken a set. Mannarino beat Johnson in the first round in five sets, but given that the American played well in Auckland last week I think that's a good result. Ferrer has played Mannarino before, on clay in Madrid in what was a bizarre match that saw Mannarino bagel the Spaniard in the second set before getting bagelled himself in the third. Taking a set against Ferrer on clay in his own back yard takes some doing, and it shows the potential that Mannarino has. For me, the price on Ferrer here is justified only if he is in form, and so I'm backing Mannarino with a small stake. Leonardo Mayer to beat Novak Djokovic @ 95.00 >Betfair I think the handicaps are definitely worth a look in this match, even though I'm going to back Mayer outright. Mayer finished last season strongly by winning a Challenger on clay in Ecuador, and he flattened Montanes in his first match of this tournament. He is a decent enough player on hard, and took Murray to four sets at the US Open last year. Clearly he is highly unlikely to beat Djokovic, but as was the case when Lacko took on the Serb I don't think his price fairly reflects his chances. Alejandro Falla to beat Stanislas Wawrinka @ 10.50 >Betfair Falla came into this tournament in good form having won a Challenger on hard in France, and he took care of Kukushkin with something to spare in the first round here. Winning breeds confidence, especially in a player like Falla who can be quite up and down, and so this could be a good time for him to take on a top player like Wawrinka. The Swiss didn't have to break much of a sweat in his last match against Golubev as the Kazakh retired in the second set, and so he isn't fully match hardened even though he should be quite fresh. You can't really argue with Wawrinka's form so far this season, and his confidence is sure to be high after winning the title in Chennai, but even so he can still be prone to lapses in concentration and with Falla playing well at the moment this match might be more competitive than expected.

Are you taking the piss? This is ridiculous.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Are you taking the piss? This is ridiculous.

That is not much input, is it? Everyone takes whatever bets he/she likes. Nobody is forcing you to take those bets - if you think that they are ridiculous, you can simply decide to not follow them. You may be a better tipster than Torque, you may even be the best of them all. Why not share some picks and views then?

[nickel1]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Just to clarify,my critics above wasn't towards anyones picks but to her as a professional player.Watched parts of the game and she just looked awful. Glad people wanna share,take responsibility for our own plays.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Just to clarify,my critics above wasn't towards anyones picks but to her as a professional player.Watched parts of the game and she just looked awful. Glad people wanna share,take responsibility for our own plays.

:ok I think that we all understood you this way. Flipkens really was poor and surprisingly passive.

[Fader]

Re: Australian Open 2014 poor day really. I think heat was a big factor for Tursunov being an old man and Janowicz won but didnt cover the handicap. Nieminen should of done alot better and had 15-40 in 4th set to break but to be honest even if Nieminen was serving for the match Fognini would of retired like he always does when he is losing. Such a child. -2.96pts for the day. +14.04 pts for tournament

[Guardiola]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Jeremy Chardy (FRA) to beat David Ferrer (ESP). 3,95 @ pinnacle (8/10). I really think Chardy has a decent chance in this match-up. My bet was against Ferrer both against Gonzalez and Mannarino. Both bets won as I´ve chosen the overs and against Mannarino winning a set. But now, it is time to go out for Ferrer. In these days he lacks the consistency to push every ball back as he used to in his best days. His serve isn´t impressive and has never been, but when it comes to longer rallies, he was the better except when he was playing against the likes of Djokovic and Nadal. But this year, his baseline game is not that convincing anymore with Ferrer producing unforced errors and lacking depth and power. So Chardy with his powerful serve and strokes should have any chance here. The fast conditions will suit him. Almost 4,0 is ridiculous, I would have chosen odds around 2,5 maybe. I am also looking foward to the handicap and set winning lines. Edit: Torque´s picks are NOT ridiculous. It is only ridiculous when some people cannot handle them and expect his outright picks to win. All of his three picks yesterday were good ones as in all three ties the handicaps and overs have been reached. Keep on going Torque!

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Jack Sock (+2.5 sets) to beat Gael Monfils for a 5/10 stake at 2.30 with Pinnacle Good price here I would say. Not only is Jack Sock good enough to win a set by playing well, but Gael Monfils is hardly the most consistent performer around and might drop a set at some point just because he starts to misfire a little bit. At odds against, this looks like a good play to me. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/sock-vs-monfils-betting-jack-sock-looks-value-to-take-a-set-off-the-talented-frenchman

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Victor Hanescu (+2.5 sets) to beat Milos Raonic for a 4/10 stake at 2.05 with Pinnacle Back Victor Hanescu to beat Milos Raonic for a 1/10 stake at 6.34 with Pinnacle I went against Milos Raonic in the first round and, after seeing him play well below his capabilities, I am willing to do so once again. Victor Hanescu should be even tougher than Daniel Gimeno-Traver, so fancy him to get at least a set against the powerful Canadian. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/hanescu-vs-raonic-betting-milos-raonic-looks-set-to-struggle-once-again

[junesixth]

Re: Australian Open 2014 (2points) Bellucci +2.5 sets vs Tsonga @2.18 unibet, 12.15pm local time, Australian OPen 2rd round. Bellucci is dangerous. Massive serve and forehand. I think on clay he has a good chance of beating Tsonga, but this is hard court. Still the price is too short for Tsonga @1.083?? Score prediction: Tsonga 64 67 61 67 76 (2points) Cilic 3-0 vs Gilles Simon @2.82 betfair, 1.30pm local time, Australian open 2nd round. I know Simon beat Cilic consistently on grass, clay and hard court leading 3-0. But I've read Simon had ankle injury and had to save 7 match points against his last opponent in a 5 sets match!! Wow!! It's worth a shot betting against an injured player.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Dusan Lajovic (+2.5 sets) to beat Kei Nishikori for a 4/10 stake at 2.25 with Unibet Back Dusan Lajovic to beat Kei Nishikori for a 1/10 stake at 8.95 with Pinnacle Last one for Thursday. Nishikori has always been know for his shaky fitness and he looked rather fatigued after that epic five-setter against Marinko Matosevic, so I can see him struggling to play three flawless sets in a row here. His sheer class will probably get him through to the next round at the end of the day, but Lajovic is good enough to have his own say in the matters. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/lajovic-vs-nishikori-betting-dusan-lajovic-could-go-well-against-the-japanese-number-one

[Fedar]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Edit: Torque´s picks are NOT ridiculous. It is only ridiculous when some people cannot handle them and expect his outright picks to win. All of his three picks yesterday were good ones as in all three ties the handicaps and overs have been reached. Keep on going Torque!

But then maybe he should have tried handicaps, not directly heavy upsets, right?! Handicaps for very heavy favorites like Novak are way too low against lower ranked players, and often at such tournaments he might spare energy and make at least one out of the three sets competitive, which in most cases is enough to beat the handicaps. So, in this respect, backing handicaps makes sense. But betting Mayer to bet Djokovic in Grand Slam is just way too lavish and extraordinary.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Australian Open 2014 Guys, we have had similar discussions before, so let's just accept that everyone has a different betting strategy. It is very much up to Torque what he wishes to go for, if you like his analysis but don't like the pick, there is nothing preventing you from backing the handicap instead of the outright. :ok

[Torque]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Torque do you just bet underdogs? :eek

Generally yes. If you bet favourites or around evens as many do, you are going to be more successful in terms of results. That is a statistical fact as implied by the odds, but it doesn't necessarily translate into profit. That said, there are many on this forum that are very good at picking marginal favourites and even money shots, and are certainly better at it than I am. I have found over time that I am generally more successful the higher the odds are, and so I decided at the start of the season that my contribution to the forum would be to focus on underdogs that in my opinion offer value, and whilst I have been backing these players outright I have stressed that handicaps could also be a good option. The reason I don't back handicaps is simple. I only bet on Betfair and liquidity in these markets is poor, however what I like about Betfair is that whenever you strike a bet, no matter what the odds, if you win you always get paid. So far in this tournament I've only had one winner which doesn't look very good, so I can understand those who have been critical of my approach.

[Torque]

Re: Australian Open 2014

no disrespect torque but ur picks are just outlandish.

I wouldn't disagree with you there. In the long term though, I expect to be in profit as in my opinion each pick has more chance of winning than the prices suggest.

[Torque]

Re: Australian Open 2014

Are you taking the piss? This is ridiculous.

No. It's not likely I would take the time to write up these posts if I was doing that.

[Torque]

Re: Australian Open 2014

But then maybe he should have tried handicaps, not directly heavy upsets, right?! Handicaps for very heavy favorites like Novak are way too low against lower ranked players, and often at such tournaments he might spare energy and make at least one out of the three sets competitive, which in most cases is enough to beat the handicaps. So, in this respect, backing handicaps makes sense. But betting Mayer to bet Djokovic in Grand Slam is just way too lavish and extraordinary.

Again I wouldn't disagree with this. However, I've been betting this way since the start of last season and laying the top players in certain matches when they are priced below 1.10 has seen me make a profit.

[Fader]

Re: Australian Open 2014 I went through a stage last year on the clay court where I was constantly questioned because of my picks. I don't see why people have to justify their picks. This isn't a tipping service. It's a forum where we SHARE tips. Surely there is a difference? This is why we lose so many posters each year. It's also why I come and go and many others do. Let the man pick how he wants. He is no lower in profit for this thread then others. If he was -50pts every thread then it would deserve the criticism but I really like threads where you have the "10pts on 1.16" punters mixed with the "1pt on 20.00" punters.