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CzechPunter

Australian Open 2014

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Re: Australian Open 2014 stanislas wawrinka - andrey golubev andrey golubev+2.5 (set handicap) @3.0 paddypower 2/10 odds are looking really high here. golubev is a dangerous player with a huge game. his problem is consistency. i don't think that he can defeat wawrinka in a best of five match but taking one set in the first round of a grand slam? wawrinka is famous for having problems with lower ranked opponents in the early rounds of big tournaments. if we consider that a guy like wawrinka, as a seeded player, has to face lower ranked opponents in the first round of grand slams he only won 3 of his last 8 first round matches at grand slams with a clean 3-0. he lost sets to guys like gensse, stakhovsky, cipolla or de bakker. i guess golubev is in the same category, maybe even more dangerous with a good serve and a decent forehand. i think golubev is a talented shotmaker. h2h is 1-1. golubev def. wawrinka in 2011 in cincinnati. worth a try. jeremy chardy - jesse huta-galung over 31 (total games) @1.78 pinnacle 7/10 two big serving guys. both has a limited game, more ballbashing, chardy definitely a way more talented than his dutch opponent but huta-galung can show up as a decent player, too. i don't think chardy is able to compete three sets at the same level. he has many ups and downs in his game. i think odds are good enough to take here. would be surprised if chardy can pull this out in three sets. and even if he does, i think one tie break at least is realistic. 7-6 6-3 6-3 would be a cashback. for me this is worth a big bet.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 4pts E.Gulbis [-6.5 games] to beat J.Monaco Evens PaddyPower Monaco just isn't a very good hard court player. In his last 9 hard court matches he has won just 2. He has also had some stomach problems apparently. Ironically last year he beat Gulbis 3-0 in this event but I think it will be alot different this time. I fancy Gulbis to win 3-0/3-1 and so the handicap at evens seems a decent price

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Re: Australian Open 2014 4pts I.Karlovic Vs I.Dodig - First set tie-break [Yes] 2.25 Bet365 These two are both massive servers. Half of Karlovic's matches on the big stage have gone to a first set tie-breaker. He rely's heavily on his serve as to be honest that's all he has. Dodig is also very reliant on his serve however he is younger and is much better on other aspects of his game. Last time these 2 played, the first set went to a tie-break. In-fact so did the second set. I fancy Dodig here but hopefully it will be a solid first set for both servers.

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Re: Australian Open 2014

Back Monica Puig to beat Anna Tatishvili for a 6/10 stake at 1.84 with Pinnacle Contrasting starts to the season, but Puig should still have too much class for Tatishvili, who is a very good draw for her in the first round. She is the better player overall and she played decent tennis against both Flipkens and Vesnina, so I believe that she is going to win this more often than not, as Tatishvili is a step down from those two. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/puig-vs-tatishvili-betting-monica-puig-to-find-her-way-through-to-the-second-round
puig has been drifting all day it seems. Now avilable at 1.90 Anyone know of any aches or injuries to the player?

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Nicolas Mahut(-2.5 games) to beat Matthew Ebden Aussie Open 1st Rd @2.00 Ladbrokes(7/10) Only 15 ranking places seperate these two, with Ebden returning to his favoured hard courts. They have met before 4 years ago with Mahut winning 6-3 6-2. On paper ME hard court record seems impressive but looking through his career its mainly Challenger players he has beaten. The noteable names he has played on the hard courts he has lost. Mahut however finished 2013 in amazing form winning events91 indoor,two grass).NM last match took Del Porto 3 sets & looking good to have another decent season.My Bet of the day this one.7pts win Dominic Thiem to beat Joao Sousa Aussie Open 1st Rd @2.10 Titanbet(5/10) In my opinion Thiem should be the favourite in this match. Some notable victories over Young, Bachinger & beating Klizan in his last match 6-2, 7-5. JS has more experience on the hard courts but has started 2014 with two defeats. Close enough match but I'm on the 'form' player which is Thiem. 5pts win Pablo Carreno-Busta to beat Julien Benneteau Aussie Open 1st round @3.5 Ladbrokes(4/10) Fancy a bit of an upset in this one. H2H reads a 1-0 lead for CB at ATP Oeiras(clay).Carreno-Busta has shown that he can take his game to the indoor/hard surfaces.Narrow defeat for him vs Kohlschreiber at ATP Auckland & also some impressive wins at the end of 2013.JB has lost 7 out of his last 10 matches & PCB couldnt be meeting him at a better time.4pts win Good luck with all your bets :hope

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Re: Australian Open 2014

Nicolas Mahut(-2.5 games) to beat Matthew Ebden Aussie Open 1st Rd @2.00 Ladbrokes(7/10) Only 15 ranking places seperate these two, with Ebden returning to his favoured hard courts. They have met before 4 years ago with Mahut winning 6-3 6-2. On paper ME hard court record seems impressive but looking through his career its mainly Challenger players he has beaten. The noteable names he has played on the hard courts he has lost. Mahut however finished 2013 in amazing form winning events91 indoor,two grass).NM last match took Del Porto 3 sets & looking good to have another decent season.My Bet of the day this one.7pts win
isnt it -3.5 line at evens at ladbrokes

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Re: Australian Open 2014

isnt it -3.5 line at evens at ladbrokes
Sorry for answering your question total wrong NoFear, your right mate it is -3.5. I must be going mad cos I swear Laddies had it up at -2.5. :loon I see Bet365 have the -2.5 game line at 1.80

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Anyone remember Andy Murray disappearing with injury before his first ever grand slam win at Wimbledon? The first few rounds against easier opposition will be perfect to get the match fitness up before he comes across the big boys and of course behind the scene training will be vital, but at these odds it just screams value for someone who has made 3 out of the last 4 Australian open finals. Andy Murray to win Australian Open 10/1 Ladbrokes

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Re: Australian Open 2014

NoFear, yes it is. I'm doing my betting odds in decimals. Sorry for any confusion
so am I. -3.5 line is at 2.00 and -2.5 line is at 1.8. in decimal odds. So your -3.5 games handicap should be -2.5 games handicap at those odds. Not trying to be a pain, just saving people some time who might be rushing off as the 1 extra game makes a huge difference as u may know. Appreciate the tips as well. GL

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Re: Australian Open 2014 In addition to Golubev, there are a few other players that I like due to what I think are inflated prices. I'm backing these players to win, but I also think there could be value to be had in the handicaps. Alejandro Gonzalez to beat David Ferrer @ 25.00 Betfair I've had some success opposing Ferrer during the first few weeks of the season, and whilst it's entirely possible that he wasn't as motivated then as he surely will be for this tournament, something seems to be missing from his game at the moment. Whether it's getting used to working with a new coach or some other reason, he has seemed sluggish to me and has been dropping sets even in the matches that he has won. Gonzalez finished last season strongly, making the Challenger Tour Finals Final on clay, and he has carried the winning habit into this season. He reached the final of the Sao Paulo Challenger in his last tournament, and even though playing Ferrer at a Grand Slam is a big step up from that, I like backing players that have been winning matches recently. Don't get me wrong, Ferrer should be winning this and winning it easily, but I would want a higher price before I would consider backing him here. Juan Monaco to beat Ernests Gulbis @ 5.60 Betfair I can understand the arguments for a Gulbis win in this match, but the bottom line for me is that he is not reliable enough to be backed at such a short price. He was an even bigger favourite at the US Open last season against Haider-Maurer and was beaten, and despite hard not being Monaco's favourite surface it's not as though he can't play on it. The Argentine had a poor season last year and was beaten in both matches that he played at the Kooyong Exhibition last week, but he should be up for this given that it's a Grand Slam and his record against Gulbis is good. If the prices were different I might well have backed Gulbis, but as it is it's Monaco for me in this one. Jesse Huta Gulang to beat Jeremy Chardy @ 9.20 Betfair Chardy is another player who for me can't be trusted as a big favourite, and to be honest I think he is only this short because of his win against Del Potro in this tournament last year. I don't think he has played that well so far this season, and although he made the last four in Brisbane a lot of his matches were quite close. It's fair to say that Huta Gulang has been in poor form for a while now, but he has beaten Chardy before even though it was a number of years ago. He is the kind of player that pops up every now and then and gets a surprise win, and against a player like Chardy that continues to be quite erratic, I'll take a chance that this is one of those occasions. Michael Russell to beat Dmitry Tursunov @ 7.40 Betfair Tursunov surged back up the rankings last year, so much so that he is seeded here for the first time in a number of years. That probably explains why he is so heavily favoured in this match against Russell, a player who has beaten him no less than three times. The American veteran is certainly in the twilight of his career and this is his first match of the season, and it could be that this is his last Australian Open and if that's the case I'm sure he will want to go out with a good performance. Tursunov has had plenty of ups and downs in this career, and as such I wouldn't feel comfortable backing him at such a short price in this match. It could be that Russell has only turned up for the appearance money, but I think he will put up a fight here. Tursunov should win, but he has lost to worse players than Russell in the past. Lukas Lacko to beat Novak Djokovic @ 101.00 Betfair This one is about price for me and not a lot else. At this price, the inference is that Lacko will do well to win a game let alone trouble Djokovic in the match and I just don't think that's right. As a comparison, Lacko played Nadal at this tournament a couple of years ago and took eight games in a straight sets loss. I'm not sure what the games handicap was that day, but I think it's possible Lacko covered it. It might look slightly insane to back a player at these kinds of odds, but we all saw what happened at Wimbledon last year with Nadal and Federer. Djokovic has only played exhibition matches so far this season, and if he is rusty at the start then that might give Lacko a chance to get into the match. The Slovak took a set against Isner last week in Auckland which isn't too bad, and put simply his price here suggests he has no chance of winning. This is a player that has been in the top 50 in the world in his career and so he must have some sort of chance. Good luck to everyone having a punt. It should be a good night of tennis and I'm looking forward to it. :ok

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Re: Australian Open 2014 I watched the last match between Zakopalova and Stosur and it was quite a comfortable win.Im no expert on tennis but based solely on that match i will put the Czech on to win this match. Bet365 13/8.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Katerina Siniakova to beat Zarina Diyas for a 6/10 stake at 1.74 with Pinnacle A dream draw for both, but I rate Siniakova as the much better player of the two. More talent, more focus, higher ambitions. Diyas was on the rise a few years ago, Siniakova is on the rise now, so like her chances at these odds. Just hoping that the occasion won't get to her. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/siniakova-vs-diyas-betting-the-talented-czech-should-prevail-in-the-battle-of-young-talents Back Blaz Kavcic to beat Radek Stepanek for a 3/10 stake at 4.50 with Bwin Back Blaz Kavcic to beat Radek Stepanek 3-2 for a 1/10 stake at 14.00 with Youwin I think that Stepanek is bound to start losing these long matches, especially since he isn't going anywhere in the singles draw with Federer in the second round. Kavcic tends to play his heart out and, if he can keep the match tight early on, I think that he will have a decent chance of simply outlasting the Czech. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/kavcic-vs-stepanek-betting-radek-stepanek-might-struggle-in-the-tough-conditions Back D.Gimeno-Traver/M.Raonic - Over 30.5 games for a 3/10 stake at 1.94 with Pinnacle Back Daniel Gimeno-Traver (+2.5 sets) to beat Milos Raonic for a 2/10 stake at 3.53 with Pinnacle Back Daniel Gimeno-Traver to beat Milos Raonic for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Unibet Raonic looked quite suspect to me in the Hopman Cup, so going with a punt on Daniel Gimeno-Traver. He has a big game and Raonic shouldn't be able to break him at will, so fancy him to do something here - the lines look really juicy, after all. A set is certainly within the Spaniard's range here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/gimeno-traver-vs-raonic-betting-milos-raonic-not-the-most-trustworthy-favorite-around-right-now Back Thanasi Kokkinakis (+3.5) to beat Igor Sijsling for a 4/10 stake at 1.96 with Pinnacle Back Thanasi Kokkinakis to beat Igor Sijsling for a 2/10 stake at 2.65 with Pinnacle Tuesday should bring some joy to the Aussies, as Hewitt looks in good nick, but Thanasi Kokkinakis could shine as well, as Sijsling hasn't had a good start to the season. The Dutchman has never done well in the Australian Open, so fancy the Australian to carry the Aussie flag to the second round. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/kokkinakis-vs-sijsling-betting-thanasi-kokkinakis-to-carry-the-australian-flag-into-the-second-round

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Re: Australian Open 2014 4.5pts K.Nishikori -5.5 games to beat M.Matosevic 1.66 Bet365 I think Nishikori should win this one without too many problems. Nishikori beat him fairly easy in Brisbane on the hard 7-5 6-2 and then in Memphis Nish was leading 1-0 in sets when Matosevic retired. Perhaps Matosevic has problems with big servers, as he lost recently 2-0 to Stakhovsky on the hard. The higher rank and based on last years performance too and Id expect Nishikori to win this and go quite deep this year. 1.5pts Gimeno-Traver to beat M.Raonic 17.00 Boylesport I just don't think anyone can be 16/1 to beat Raonic. Yes, he serves well. So does lots of other players but he isn't very good on his return. I still think he is the mos overrated player on tour. There I said it. Traver, unfortunately is a clay player and probably will lose this in straight sets 7-6 6-4 6-3 or something but I'm willing to put a point or two on this because I know Raonic is so hit and miss. 3pts V.Hanescu to beat P.Gojowczyk 2.75 Boylesport I don't think this price is accurate. This match is very similar to the one I tipped for Thompson to beat Janowicz. Gojo is an up and coming star and he has beaten some top players and took a set from Nadal in a final but I still think that experience counts for alot (see Thompson 2-0 up in sets and loses 3-2) The overs will be a solid bet for those of you looking for more of a sure thing but I'll take this price as it's quite generous. 3pts Hsun-Lu [-5.5 games] to beat J.Wang 1.66 Bet365 Every time they have played on the outdoor hard Lu has won in straight sets. Id imagine this to be 3-0 / 3-1. The handicap should be covered with one big set score. Lu done very well in Auckland getting to the final and pushing Isner 7-6 7-6. He also beat Ferrer in the semi-finals. Wang has had some good results on the hard but I don't see him matching Lu here.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 3pts K.Nara to beat S.Peng 2.70 bet365 Nara has beaten some quality players such as Puig, Riske & Pliskova recently and I think the odds are alittle generous here. Can't find any head-2-heads on the hard court but these two will no doubt no eachother and I think Nara can see herself through this.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Becker to beat Kyrgios @2.00 Sportingbet Becker is more experienced player and can harm even the best players. I cant see why Kyrgios is in so low odds, and of course for me the value is with Becker. Last year Kyrgios said that he had to take more time in gym to have a better physical condition. If the match goes in distance Becker has more weapons to take the win. The most important is not to underestimate Kyrgios and I think the win will come. Sijsling to beat Kokkinakis @1.53 Betvictor I again cant see the crowd enough to lose Sijsling. I agree that Kokkinakis is a talented player, but in past Sijsling has made great wins and tournaments. His serve is a very good weapon to stay in touch with the opponent and time take the break when it matters most. Kokkinakis makes his debut in a big event and I think is too much for him to start with a win, especially with this opponent. Przysiezny to beat Zeballos @1.53 Sportingbet Zeballos hasnt done anything yet after his big win against Rafa last year. His play lacks of confidence and has no variety. The H2H is 2-0 for the argetinian the first match was played on hard court nack in 2010, and the last in clay 2012. I admit that the H2H is a problem, but i think that Przysiezny is now more solid and smarter.

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Re: Australian Open 2014

3pts Hsun-Lu [-5.5 games] to beat J.Wang 1.66 Bet365 Every time they have played on the outdoor hard Lu has won in straight sets. Id imagine this to be 3-0 / 3-1. The handicap should be covered with one big set score. Lu done very well in Auckland getting to the final and pushing Isner 7-6 7-6. He also beat Ferrer in the semi-finals. Wang has had some good results on the hard but I don't see him matching Lu here.
I'd agree with this one Wang had some difficulties beating Irish no. 1 James McGee in the first qualifying round, he won that 7-6 7-5, but McGee (who is well down the rankings) broke him a couple of times in the second set, which is not a good sign I think Lu should win this in straight sets and should be capable of covering the handicap, 6-4 6-3, 7-5 or equivalent, would be surprised to see Wang taking a set, if he does it'll be in a tiebreak, but even then I'd rate Lu as a good shot to cover the handicap

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Teimuraz Gabashvii(+6.5 games) to beat Sergiy Stakhovsky Aussie Open 1st Rd @1.83 PaddyPower(5/10) SS leads the H2H between these two 2-0, but like past history I can see a close match between these two. Stakhovsky is off the back of a decent run to the Semi-finals at ATP Sydney & TB had a couple of deep Challenger Event runs at the back of 2013.He'll raise his game for this one & see 3 or 4 close sets. 5pts win Also gonna have a small wager on Gabashvii beating Stakhovsky in this match: Gabashvii to beat Stakhovsky @4.50 Bet365(2/10) Ryan Harrison(+6.5 games) to beat Gael Monfils Aussie Open 1st Rd @2.00 Unibet(6/10) Really good price on Harrison to give Monfils a real scare tonight & I think he will run him very close. Monfils made the ATP Doha Final over a week ago losing to Nadal but had some impressive victories over Mayer,Brands,Gasquet along the way.Harrison has proven he can push all the top seeds & also gained a few outstanding wins over them aswell.What Monfils will turn up is another question? RH will not fear GB & I can see a marathon game between these two.6pts win As above, same match going to do a couple of points on Harrison to beat Monfils @7.00 Boylesport(2/10) Good Luck with your bets :hope

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Re: Australian Open 2014 I'll put these up now as they are first in the order of play. Bradley Klahn to beat Grigor Dimitrov @ 6.00 >Betfair I think there is the potential for deja vu in this match, as there was a lot of hype around Dimitrov last year heading into this tournament only for him to lose in the first round against Benneteau. Despite making something of a breakthrough last season, winning his first title and achieving his highest ranking, he still hasn't really produced at the biggest tournaments. He is yet to get past the third round of any of the Grand Slams, and the furthest he has got in this tournament has been the second round. I think he is still finding it difficult to live up to expectations, and so far this season he has only won one match which isn't ideal preparation for this tournament in my opinion. Klahn did well in this part of the world in Challengers towards the end of last season, and he had a good win against Brands in Auckland last week. The fact that he is left handed is another factor which could make this a difficult match for Dimitrov, and if players like Zemlja and Sousa can knock the Bulgarian out of Grand Slams early I don't see why Klahn can't do the same. Aljaz Bedene to beat Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 9.40 Betfair I wouldn't say that Kohlschreiber has had the greatest start to the season, and so he looks a little short to me in this match. He was unconvincing against Andujar and then lost to Gojowczyk in Doha, before some marginally better performances in Auckland that saw him go out in the quarter-final to Isner. Bedene has also made a slow start to the season, and although he made the last eight in Chennai he put up very little resistance when facing Wawrinka and was beaten easily. Kohlschreiber is the player with the hard court pedigree here, but I would like him to be in better form before backing him at the prices quoted.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 James Duckworth to beat Roger Federer @ 55.00 >Betfair With a new year comes new hope, but in my opinion Federer is unlikely to reverse the decline in his game that he has been experiencing since last season. Back problems were cited as one of the reasons for a string of poor results in 2013 for the Swiss, and as much as I'm sure he is feeling reasonably healthy at this early stage in the season, back injuries are quite often chronic and can be unpredictable and difficult to manage. Duckworth hasn't done an awful lot recently, but he did have a productive spell at the end of the season in Challengers. He is the home player, and as much as playing Federer can be daunting he has lost his aura of invincibility and so Duckworth should feel more confident about his chances than he otherwise would. If he can somehow manage to extend this match beyond three sets, and if Federer starts to feel his back then I think a real shock could be a possibility. Federer lost in the Brisbane final against Hewitt, a veteran like himself who has had his fair share of injury problems, and so against a young player like Duckworth who is fit and hungry I wouldn't want to back the former champion here when he is so short. I certainly think there is value in the handicaps, but it's small stakes for me on the match line.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Teymuraz Gabashvili to beat Sergiy Stakhovsky @ 5.40 >Betfair As much as Stakhovsky had a good week in Sydney before this tournament and has got the better of Gabashvili in previous meetings, he is being too heavily favoured in my opinion. It's not as though he is the most consistent of players, which is reflected in his ranking, and whilst Gabashvili is also not the most reliable player around he has a similar ranking to Stakhovsky. Therefore, what we have here as far as I can see is two players who play brilliantly and poorly in equal measure. In a situation like that, my money has to be with whichever player is priced the higher and so I'll take Gabashvili in this match.

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Re: Australian Open 2014 Yaroslava Shvedova to beat Sloane Stephens Aussie Open 1st Rd @5.00 Ladbrokes(6/10) Stephens last match at the Hopman Cup she pulled out with a wrist injury. She played her other two matches but hasnt played a competitive WTA fixture for nearly three months.Rusty?+ the fact she has had this injury 10 days ago. I have placed this bet with a 'one ball' result bookie & also Ladbrokes had the best price for this game. Importantly, aswell is that Shvedova has the ability to 'get up'for these big games & is a big threat for SS, even if she didnt have all these problems.Too many factors say this is a defo bet & going a larger than usual 6pts win :hope

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