CzechPunter Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Back G.Dimitrov/R.Nadal - Over 3.5 sets for a 5/10 stake at 2.50 with Bet365 Dimitrov has taken a set off the Spaniard in every single one of their three previous meetings, so I expect him to confirm his recent rise in form by doing so once again on Wednesday, especially since Nadal didn't look completely invincible in his match against Kei Nishikori. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/dimitrov-vs-nadal-betting-grigor-dimitrov-could-prove-to-be-a-very-difficult-opponent-for-rafael-nadal Back Roger Federer to beat Andy Murray for a 6/10 stake at 1.88 with Pinnacle Back Roger Federer (-1.5 sets) to beat Andy Murray for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with Betvictor Back Roger Federer (-2.5 sets) to beat Andy Murray for a 1/10 stake at 5.69 with Pinnacle I understand why people might fancy Andy Murray here, but I am just not seeing it to be absolutely honest. The Scot may win and I'll take it on the chin then, but Federer has been the much sharper player of the two for me so far in this tournament, so I fancy him to beat Murray here. He looked like a man on a mission in his match against Tsonga, while I am yet to see anything special from Andy Murray in this season. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/federer-vs-murray-betting-roger-federer-a-worthy-favorite-in-the-highlight-of-the-day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
edtkh Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 CzechPunter, great call on Berdych there. Couldn't have seen that coming. While Ferrer didn't help himself by sleepwalking for the first set and a half (he started playing too late), credit shouldn't be taken away from Berdych who played a solid match throughout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Benn Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Back G.Dimitrov/R.Nadal - Over 3.5 sets for a 5/10 stake at 2.50 with Bet365 Dimitrov has taken a set off the Spaniard in every single one of their three previous meetings, so I expect him to confirm his recent rise in form by doing so once again on Wednesday, especially since Nadal didn't look completely invincible in his match against Kei Nishikori. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/dimitrov-vs-nadal-betting-grigor-dimitrov-could-prove-to-be-a-very-difficult-opponent-for-rafael-nadal Back Roger Federer to beat Andy Murray for a 6/10 stake at 1.88 with Pinnacle Back Roger Federer (-1.5 sets) to beat Andy Murray for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with Betvictor Back Roger Federer (-2.5 sets) to beat Andy Murray for a 1/10 stake at 5.69 with Pinnacle I understand why people might fancy Andy Murray here, but I am just not seeing it to be absolutely honest. The Scot may win and I'll take it on the chin then, but Federer has been the much sharper player of the two for me so far in this tournament, so I fancy him to beat Murray here. He looked like a man on a mission in his match against Tsonga, while I am yet to see anything special from Andy Murray in this season. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/federer-vs-murray-betting-roger-federer-a-worthy-favorite-in-the-highlight-of-the-day Do you not think Murray has had Federer's second serve for breakfast for a long time now? I can't see that suddenly changing here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Do you not think Murray has had Federer's second serve for breakfast for a long time now? I can't see that suddenly changing here. It is not going to change and, in the long term, the rivalry is bound to go Murray's way only. At the same time, Federer has looked sharper than Murray in recent days and current form is what usually decides these big matches, so I would much rather be on Federer than on Murray today. He is firing right now and he will feel that he has a good shot at this, even more so now that Djokovic is gone. I saw some bits from Murray's matches and some bits from Federer's matches and, while things can obviously turn upside down here, I did like Federer much more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Looking at the 2 new partnerships in men's tennis (Becker/Djokovic, Federer / Edberg), you have to reckon that the Federer one will be far more successful than Djokovic/Becker combo. Federer looks very sharp, and seems to have adjusted his game fractionally. He took care of Zonga easily. There is not much to be done at this level, maybe a few tweeks and strategies that will win you those 3 or 4 critical points. Edberg, being such an incredible serve and volleyer has encouraged Federer to shorten points slightly. This has worked really well, as this is not the Federer of his absolute physical peak. His strategy has to be, shorten points and be more aggressive when in control. For me it's more of a mental thing with Federer. In pure talent probably the greatest player in history. But its a strange situation. He used to be able to beat opponents by beating their strength. Now he needs to do it by denying an opponents strength's. It's a subtle thing, that his ego has struggled with. I have not been impressed with Murray. He looks so pained , like it's such a burden to play these games. He has had no really tough tests so far, and if he starts in his normal manner (slowly) he will be in trouble quickly. I am happy with 3 separate bets. Federer to win the opening set and Federer to win the match 3 sets to 1 and fed to win the match Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoFear Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Stanislas Wawrinka to beat Novak Djokovic @ 10.00 Betfair The hard facts are that Wawrinka has not beaten Djokovic in over seven years and has also never beaten him at a Grand Slam, which helps to explain why the Serb is such a big favourite in this match. For some reason though, Wawrinka appears to be more competitive when playing Djokovic in best of five set matches, as was the case last year at this tournament and also the US Open. Going back to around the time that Wawrinka last beat Djokovic they played each other in a Davis Cup rubber that went to five sets, and so it does seem as though the Swiss prefers to play Djokovic when the format is longer. If this does turn out to be a long match then Wawrinka might have a slight advantage, as he didn't play a full match against Golubev in the first round and he got a walkover against Pospisil in round three. Given his form and how close he came to knocking Djokovic out here last year, Wawrinka will surely fancy his chances of going one better this year and getting the win. bravo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuMeSyn Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Looks like someone is giving Torque some credit. One of the great tipsters around here, it's a very volatile and unusual method, but one has to give him credit on finding these upsets :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopJimmy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Victoria Azarenka (-5.5) vs Agnieszka Radwanska @10/11 Sportingbet Azarenka's margin of victory in their last 6 matches has been 9,6,10,8,6 and 6 games respectively. Quite simply, if Azarenka is on form then Radwanska has nothing to hurt her and will constantly struggle to hold serve. Watching Azarenka against Stephens the other day I thought she looked close to top form, moving well and hitting consistently hard and accurately so I would expect her to cover this handicap again. Roger Federer (-1.5 sets) vs Andy Murray @ 17/10 PaddyPower Historically, matches between these two (and hence the odds) have been close so it's always a case of deciding who's coming into the match in better form. For me, it's emphatically Federer this time around. Since coming back from surgery Murray's movement has looked fine, but his results suggest he's still not up to his old form and prone to dodgy spells - losing to Hewitt in straight sets, going well down in the 3rd set against Millot before rallying, dropping the 3rd set to Robert after having match points. He'll be punished heavily for this against a top player and anyone who saw Federer comprehensively dismantle Tsonga the other day will know he's playing his best tennis in years. I just can't see Murray living with him unless he somehow finds some form anywhere near his best, but surely it's still too soon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Victoria Azarenka (-5.5) vs Agnieszka Radwanska @10/11 Sportingbet Azarenka's margin of victory in their last 6 matches has been 9,6,10,8,6 and 6 games respectively. Quite simply, if Azarenka is on form then Radwanska has nothing to hurt her and will constantly struggle to hold serve. Watching Azarenka against Stephens the other day I thought she looked close to top form, moving well and hitting consistently hard and accurately so I would expect her to cover this handicap again. I'm not sure about this . Looking at the matches Azarenka has played Larsson 7-6 6-2 Strycova 6-1 6-4 Meusburger 6-1 6-0 Stevens 6-3 6-2 only Stevens was 1/2 decent competition. Hard to gauge anything from 3 of those matches. I think Radwanska to win the match is a decent price and well worth a small punt. 2 Units here at odds of 5.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Benn Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Looks like someone is giving Torque some credit. One of the great tipsters around here' date=' it's a very volatile and unusual method, but one has to give him credit on finding these upsets :)[/quote'] Hmmm, I'm not so sure. The phrase which springs to mind is 'even a stopped clock is correct twice a day.' I'm just not sure betting on these long shots can be profitable in the long run but I'd be very happy to be proved wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Hmmm' date=' I'm not so sure. The phrase which springs to mind is 'even a stopped clock is correct twice a day.' I'm just not sure betting on these long shots can be profitable in the long run but I'd be very happy to be proved wrong.[/quote'] I'm not sure that's an accurate analogy. If I bet on every long shot then I think it would be, but I don't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoFear Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Hmmm' date=' I'm not so sure. The phrase which springs to mind is 'even a stopped clock is correct twice a day.' I'm just not sure betting on these long shots can be profitable in the long run but I'd be very happy to be proved wrong.[/quote'] a couple of those 1.02 shots lays come in, and torque is quids in for rest of the season. Agreed finding those long shots is a difficult process, but seeing torques history, he is well up for Aus Open so must be doing something right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Benn Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 a couple of those 1.02 shots lays come in' date=' and torque is quids in for rest of the season. Agreed finding those long shots is a difficult process, but seeing torques history, he is well up for Aus Open so must be doing something right.[/quote'] Where can I see this? Do you mean well up for this year's Australian Open or Australian Opens of the past? I thought Torque was well down for this year's tournament but maybe I've missed a few winners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qaz179 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 3/1 on Eugenie Bouchard to beat Li Na seems a decent price. In the past bouchards head has dropped when she hits a rocky patch or a more determindly competetive opponent but she seems to have got a handle on mental side of things now and is looking quite resilient. Shes come back after losing the first 2 sets in her last 2 matches. If Li plays like she did for the first 2 sets v safarova Bouchard has every chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopJimmy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 I'm not sure about this . Looking at the matches Azarenka has played Larsson 7-6 6-2 Strycova 6-1 6-4 Meusburger 6-1 6-0 Stevens 6-3 6-2 only Stevens was 1/2 decent competition. Hard to gauge anything from 3 of those matches. I think Radwanska to win the match is a decent price and well worth a small punt. 2 Units here at odds of 5.7 I agree, you can't tell much from the first 3 matches which is why I didn't consider those and instead looked at her last match where she stuffed a good player and played really well and their past 6 matches in which she has covered this handicap every time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopJimmy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Where can I see this? Do you mean well up for this year's Australian Open or Australian Opens of the past? I thought Torque was well down for this year's tournament but maybe I've missed a few winners. Even if he was down for this tournament it would be too short a time frame to judge him on. At the odds he is taking on some of these bets he could easily go weeks or months without a winner but then 1 or 2 winners could get it all back and more. To suggest you can't win backing these odds is ridiculous, there can be value in any price no matter how long or short. No doubt you would have scoffed at someone tipping Darcis or Rosol to beat Nadal, or Del Bonis to beat Fed last year. Upsets do happen and if you are able to identify factors which lead you to think an upset is slightly more likely than the odds suggest then you can make money, you just have to be prepared to wait out long losing runs for the occasional big win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Even if he was down for this tournament it would be too short a time frame to judge him on. At the odds he is taking on some of these bets he could easily go weeks or months without a winner but then 1 or 2 winners could get it all back and more. To suggest you can't win backing these odds is ridiculous' date=' there can be value in any price no matter how long or short. No doubt you would have scoffed at someone tipping Darcis or Rosol to beat Nadal, or Del Bonis to beat Fed last year. Upsets do happen and if you are able to identify factors which lead you to think an upset is slightly more likely than the odds suggest then you can make money, you just have to be prepared to wait out long losing runs for the occasional big win.[/quote'] Spot on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoFear Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Where can I see this? Do you mean well up for this year's Australian Open or Australian Opens of the past? I thought Torque was well down for this year's tournament but maybe I've missed a few winners. Mate, we have had this discussion on torque before like czechpunter said, and we dont want to derail another thread bringing ROIs and what not up again. Needless to say I myself have made the most money in my over 1000 bets by betting on longshots in not just tennis but horses, footy. Just because bookies say its a 20/1 shot, doesnt mean its a 20/1 shot. But u do need a proper staking plan and be able to take downswings that go on for months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 For the final time, let's focus on the tennis :ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abd El Kader french Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Hi everyone , I wanna be your reasoning for an Over39.5 @1.53 on Fedex/Murray , do you think this match has chance to go on +3.5sets ? Do you think this odds (1.53) is good ? in other hand we have +3.5sets @1.30 :/ not a good price for me thanks. all bets on betcity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Hi everyone , I wanna be your reasoning for an Over39.5 @1.53 on Fedex/Murray , do you think this match has chance to go on +3.5sets ? Do you think this odds (1.53) is good ? in other hand we have +3.5sets @1.30 :/ not a good price for me thanks. all bets on betcity I am not sure really. I mean - they could play an absolute epic, but this is one of the very few times that I wouldn't want to be on the overs, especially at such short odds. Just have a feeling that there could be a 6-1 or 6-2 set at some point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Abd El Kader french Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Ok thank Czech , im gone wait if m NHL/NBA is good, to maybe put a small stake on overs , just for have no regrets GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
owenclass Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Simona Halep vs Dominika Cibulkova over 21.5 games 4/5 skybet Halep to win 2-1 14/5 skybet two players that a lot people did not expect to be in the quarter finals halep has been really impressive and is favourite to win but cibulkova is really confident in her game and with her impressive win over sharapova then she will make tough for halep Andy Murray vs Roger Federer 5 sets 21/10 skybet federer to win 3-1 17/5 skybet i think this could be a great bet i know murray has a back injury but he does playing at the australian open and should be able to put up a fight while federer had a great win in the last round and is playing well but he still not the player of old so with murrays injury they might be a chance of federer winning in four Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Andy Murray vs Roger Federer 5 sets 21/10 skybet federer to win 3-1 17/5 skybet i think this could be a great bet i know murray has a back injury but he does playing at the australian open and should be able to put up a fight while federer had a great win in the last round and is playing well but he still not the player of old so with murrays injury they might be a chance of federer winning in four So is that "5 sets" bet supposed to be a saver if Federer doesn't win it in four? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Back Na Li (-1.5 sets) to beat Eugenie Bouchard for a 7/10 stake at 1.78 with Pinnacle Bouchard is the one for the future, but I just cannot bring myself to trust her here. The Chinese number one should be able to counter her big hitting with accurate groundstrokes and she will also have the edge in the experience department, so I think that a 2-0 win for her is pretty likely. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/li-vs-bouchard-betting-the-first-semifinal-could-be-a-very-straightforward-affair Back T.Berdych/S.Wawrinka - Under 43 games for a 8/10 stake at 1.87 with Pinnacle All four of their previous best-of-five matches have gone under this line and I am not sure why that should change here. The match could go either way really, it all very much depends on which Wawrinka is going to turn up, but the unders look like the value bet to me here. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/berdych-vs-wawrinka-betting-the-first-men-s-semifinal-might-not-have-a-lot-of-mileage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Grigor Dimitrov to beat Rafael Nadal @ 9.00 Betfair Dimitrov has looked in good touch so far in this tournament, and the stage is set for the talented Bulgarian to finally deliver on the big stage. Beating Nadal here would be a huge scalp, but Dimitrov's record against the Spaniard suggests that it's not beyond the realms of possibility. Even though he is yet to beat Nadal, in each of their three previous meetings Dimitrov has taken a set, and that includes a match on Nadal's favoured clay. It's possible that Dimitrov might find the occasion too much, but if he can find a way to keep his focus then he should be able to cause Nadal problems as he has done in the past. I always find it very difficult to go against Nadal, as he is one of those rare players that is not only talented but also has a good attitude. If Dimitrov does manage to win this match he will certainly have earned it, as Nadal will keep going until the last point. In his last match Nadal showed all of his fighting qualities to edge Nishikori in what was a very tight match, but it's probably fair to say that if he had been in top form he would have won more easily. Dimitrov managed to make a breakthrough last season by winning his first title, and I think he is worth a small stake here to make his first significant breakthrough at a Grand Slam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neilovan Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 I'm not sure about this . Looking at the matches Azarenka has played Larsson 7-6 6-2 Strycova 6-1 6-4 Meusburger 6-1 6-0 Stevens 6-3 6-2 only Stevens was 1/2 decent competition. Hard to gauge anything from 3 of those matches. I think Radwanska to win the match is a decent price and well worth a small punt. 2 Units here at odds of 5.7 Happy with this start to the day :cigar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Back D.Cibulkova/A.Radwanska - Over 20.5 games for a 7/10 stake at 1.95 with Youwin Both Cibulkova and Radwanska are playing incredible tennis at the moment, so this match should have some mileage. I certainly hope that Radwanska is going to come out on top at the end of the day, but Cibulkova - in this sort of form - certainly has what it takes to trouble her. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/cibulkova-vs-radwanska-betting-dominika-cibulkova-has-what-it-takes-to-trouble-agnieszka-radwanska Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tk2wndw Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 All signs point to Roger in this match, but get scared when everyone is on Fed. Has anyone taken Murray here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny1 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Re: Australian Open 2014 Ive been debating with myself whether Murray is up to the task,yes several things do point to Federer, form for 1 thing and Murray has to prove himself again after the surgery.Win or lose im going to let the heart rule the head and take Murray to win at 6/5 with Bet 365. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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