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Kevin Pullein saturday picks, 18% yield, 96 bets


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Rare to see quite so many bets on one day and disappointing to draw a blank.

8 winners from 19 bets this season, a loss of -2.5 points with a yield of -13.16% and overall +16.58 with a yield of 18.22% from 91 bets.

This season is the opposite of last, where there was a recovery from a bad start. Past form would suggest this should be no more than a bump in the road though.

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On 12/19/2015, 2:44:18, thecurlyone1 said:

1 pt under 1.5 FH gls everton v leicester 21/20 corals

It's academic but could I just ask you to check whether that bet was actually <1.5 second half goals rather than first? I saw the selections tweeted by someone as being the former and thought I might as well check just for record keeping purposes. (Based on the odds I'd say it probably was second half as I'm pretty sure 1st half would have been odds on across the board.)

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12 hours ago, harry_rag said:

It's academic but could I just ask you to check whether that bet was actually <1.5 second half goals rather than first? I saw the selections tweeted by someone as being the former and thought I might as well check just for record keeping purposes. (Based on the odds I'd say it probably was second half as I'm pretty sure 1st half would have been odds on across the board.)

Harry 

 

under 1.5 goals was 1.65 on the machine and 1.6 on 365 

 

so im guessing hes taking the value Corals but ill check this evening 

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6 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Hopefully I'll be able to verify this later but I believe today's pick is under 7 cards in Levante v Vallecano at 1.95 with 365.

I think both the line and the price may have shortened (one of the perils of not having access to the selections on a Friday night via the Ipad edition)!

The advised bet was indeed 1 point on <7 AH total cards in that game at 1.95. When I looked this morning, the line was 6.5 and the price was 1.9 but, bizarrely, the line and price are currently back up to the advised levels. Still 2 hours till kick off for anyone who wishes to follow.

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12 hours ago, harry_rag said:

The advised bet was indeed 1 point on <7 AH total cards in that game at 1.95. When I looked this morning, the line was 6.5 and the price was 1.9 but, bizarrely, the line and price are currently back up to the advised levels. Still 2 hours till kick off for anyone who wishes to follow.

 

12 hours ago, harry_rag said:

The advised bet was indeed 1 point on <7 AH total cards in that game at 1.95. When I looked this morning, the line was 6.5 and the price was 1.9 but, bizarrely, the line and price are currently back up to the advised levels. Still 2 hours till kick off for anyone who wishes to follow.

6 cards ...Big Kev is back on track

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Indeed, a winner this week after last week's push; I'll be expecting 2 winning selections next week to maintain the upward trajectory! ;)

9 winners and 1 push from 21 bets this season, a loss of -1.55 points with a yield of -7.38% and overall +17.53 with a yield of 18.85% from 93 bets.

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That was indeed the bet, advised to 0.5 points at the stated odds. 19 corners so at least it didn't lose by an agonisingly narrow margin!

10 winners and 1 push from 23 bets this season, a loss of -2 points with a yield of -8.7% and overall +17.08 with a yield of 17.98% from 95 bets.

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According to my usual source (which tends not to quote bookie or odds) today's selection is "Under six Asian Cards in Roma v Frosinone".

I'd expect that to be with 365, in which case they've moved the line to under 5.5 at odds of 1.9. (So 6 cards becomes a loss rather than a push.)

Up to you if you still want to follow or look for a more palatable way of doing so elsewhere. (Under 5.5 is 11/12 with 888 according to OC.)

Edited by harry_rag
Quote incorrect bookie name
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A winner without the need of the start as Southampton gain a red and a yellow to West Ham's 2 yellows.

12 winners and 1 push from 25 bets this season, a loss of -0.38 points with a yield of -1.5% and overall +18.71 with a yield of 19.28% from 97 bets.

 

I generally find that the only way to get on at the advised price is to buy the Ipad edition of the paper on Friday night and, even then, find that I can't even get on the extremely modest stake I'd like to have, depending on who the bet's with. On this occasion that worked in my favour as I topped up on +1 in the 3 way market (with the draw a runner) at 6/5! Excuse the aftertiming but the stakes involved are seriously low and I think my efforts in "curating" this thread earn me a bit of latitude! :)

 

Put it this way, my winnings might pay for the next 4 or 5 issues I choose to download!

Edited by harry_rag
Slight error in updated results
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3 hours ago, harry_rag said:

A winner without the need of the start as Southampton gain a red and a yellow to West Ham's 2 yellows.

12 winners and 1 push from 25 bets this season, a loss of -0.38 points with a yield of -1.5% and overall +18.71 with a yield of 19.28% from 97 bets.

 

I generally find that the only way to get on at the advised price is to buy the Ipad edition of the paper on Friday night and, even then, find that I can't even get on the extremely modest stake I'd like to have, depending on who the bet's with. On this occasion that worked in my favour as I topped up on +1 in the 3 way market (with the draw a runner) at 6/5! Excuse the aftertiming but the stakes involved are seriously low and I think my efforts in "curating" this thread earn me a bit of latitude! :)

 

Put it this way, my winnings might pay for the next 4 or 5 issues I choose to download!

I think you can use Betfair for some of his tips - e.g. today, could have used the Bookings Match Bet market on Betfair. It wouldn't give you the same bet of course, so you'd have to work out the value of the Betfair bet, but you wouldn't be limited.

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You're right that sometimes you can though I don't think you'd have had that option today. Had it been a 0 AH you could have used the bookings match bet with the draw to cover the push aspect but it doesn't work (unless I'm mistaken) where it's a +1 market.

i also think that you'd usually end up with a substantially inferior price even where you can replicate the bet, to the extent that it would probably mean not getting the value KP has potentially identified.

The reality of it is that, more often than not, the bets that are put up are ones that are either only available with one bookie or not available elsewhere at anything like the advised price. Trust me, when I can't get on I always have a look round! :)

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