Kevin Pullein saturday picks, 18% yield, 96 bets

[harry_rag]

Update to follow but we're back in the black as all three yellow cards in the game were shown to Southampton. We dodged a bullet as the bet was going to be under 5.5 cards in Cologne v Frankfurt but the line moved unfavourably and we got the "more than acceptable" next best instead.

I also noticed that Hills had taken an extreme view on this game, for instance having Swansea at 12/5 to get most cards or 8/1 for them to be shown more than 3 when Southampton were only 4/1. I didn't mention, or pay much attention to, those prices as, in a game where the market pretty much expected the cards to be evenly divided between the teams, there was every chance of them being treated as palpable errors.

[harry_rag]

13 winners and 1 push from 26 bets this season, a profit of 0.63 points with a yield of 2.4% and overall +19.71 with a yield of 20.11% from 98 bets.

[harry_rag]

1 point on under 7 total Asian cards in Celta Vigo v Eibar at evens with 365

Now 8/11 or evens for under 6.5, not sure what's available elsewhere.

[harry_rag]

5 yellow cards so a reasonably comfortable win, perhaps slightly less so if you were keeping an eye on the total as the game reached it's conclusion!

14 winners and 1 push from 27 bets this season, a profit of 1.63 points with a yield of 6.02% and overall +20.71 with a yield of 20.91% from 99 bets.

With just the one loss in the last 9 weeks I think this is now paying its way (even to my extremely modest staking) to justify deciding to buy the paper on a Saturday at least until the end of March. Shall we have a party to celebrate the 100th bet milestone next week? 

[harry_rag]

0.5 point on under 8 Asian total cards in Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid at 19/20 with 365

Possibly counter intuitive to go low on cards in this fixture but I suppose that fits with the whole "against the crowd" notion of where you're more likely to find value,

[harry_rag]

7 yellow cards so a win with nothing to spare (the 8th yellow would have still been a push).

15 winners and 1 push from 28 bets this season, a profit of 2.58 points with a yield of 9.2% and overall +21.66 with a yield of 21.66% from 100 bets.

[harry_rag]

1 point on under 4 Asian total cards in Southampton v Sunderland at 1.85 with 365

[harry_rag]

4 cards but a losing bet as one of them was red!

15 winners and 1 push from 29 bets this season, a profit of 1.58 points with a yield of 5.43% and overall +20.66 with a yield of 20.45% from 101 bets.

I've had a quick look at return to Kev's advised stakes and I make it that the yield would be 8.85%, with 5 of the 8 bets losing that were only advised to a 0.5 point stake.

[harry_rag]

1 point on Bournemouth +1 AH cards v Swansea at 1.825 with 365

Advised as above, it's currently 1.925. No doubt it will go off shorter! I did think it might be a typo at first but it would appear to have lengthened for whatever reason.

[harry_rag]

The only card of the game was shown to the hosts so a reasonably comfortable win.

16 winners and 1 push from 30 bets this season, a profit of 2.4 points with a yield of 8% and overall +21.48 with a yield of 21.06% from 102 bets.

[harry_rag]

0.5 points on Chelsea +1 AH cards v West Ham at evens with 365

[harry_rag]

5 West Ham yellows to Chelsea's 3 so 1 short of the bet landing on the push line.

16 winners and 1 push from 31 bets this season, a profit of 1.4 points with a yield of 4.52% and overall +20.48 with a yield of 19.88% from 103 bets.

[harry_rag]

No selection this week, as tends to be the case with International weekends.

[harry_rag]

Today's selection. Under 3.5 Asian total cards in Arsenal v Watford,
0.5pt at 9-10 with bet365.

[harry_rag]

Just the 2 yellow cards so a reasonably comfortable winner, though I never really feel comfortable going low at that sort of line!

17 winners and 1 push from 32 bets this season, a profit of 2.3 points with a yield of 7.19% and overall +21.38 with a yield of 20.56% from 104 bets.

[harry_rag]

Today's bet is Southampton +1 on Asian handicap cards market, 0.75pt 9/10 with 365.

[harry_rag]

No cards shown so the bet wins with the start.

18 winners and 1 push from 33 bets this season, a profit of 3.2 points with a yield of 9.7% and overall +22.28 with a yield of 21.22% from 105 bets.

[harry_rag]

Today's bet is: Under 3.5 Asian total cards in Manchester United v Aston Villa,
0.5pt at 4-5 with 365

Line and price are now 1.9 for under 3 so a better price but 3 would be a push rather than a win.

[harry_rag]

Just the one yellow card so the bet wins.

19 winners and 1 push from 34 bets this season, a profit of 4 points with a yield of 11.76% and overall +23.08 with a yield of 21.77% from 106 bets.

[harry_rag]

This week's selection is: Under 3.5 Asian total cards in Manchester City v Stoke,
0.5pt at 1.825 with 365.

The same bet is 1.8 with SJ who also go 5/6 for <35 points. Bear in mind that bet loses if there's a red and a yellow card though, whereas the <3.5 bet would be a winner.

[harry_rag]

No cards shown so another winner.

20 winners and 1 push from 35 bets this season, a profit of 4.83 points with a yield of 13.79% and overall +23.91 with a yield of 22.34% from 107 bets.

[harry_rag]

This week's selection is Hannover +0.5 Asian handicap corners, 0.5pt at Evens with 365

Unusually, there is a better option to be had for the same outcome. Hills go 11/10 for Hannover +1 corner in the regular 3-way handicap market.

[harry_rag]

Hannover gained 9 corners to Schalke's 3 so the bet wins..

21 winners and 1 push from 36 bets this season, a profit of 5.83 points with a yield of 16.18% and overall +24.91 with a yield of 23.06% from 108 bets.

[harry_rag]

Do not adjust your sets, this week's selection is Swansea to get most corners v West Ham, 0.5 point at 11/2 with 365.

[harry_rag]

Not even close this week, as West Ham outgained Swansea by 13-3.

21 winners and 1 push from 37 bets this season, a profit of 4.83 points with a yield of 13.04% and overall +23.91 with a yield of 21.93% from 109 bets.

[harry_rag]

No selection in his column this week.

[harry_rag]

Nothing this week, just thoughts on the cup final but no selection. We may be done for the season unless he spots anything in next week's Champions League final.

[harry_rag]

On 5/8/2016, 1:35:16, harry_rag said:

21 winners and 1 push from 37 bets this season, a profit of 4.83 points with a yield of 13.04% and overall +23.91 with a yield of 21.93% from 109 bets.

It may yet not be the final tally for the season but that's where we stand so far after two bet-free weeks. I make it that betting to advised (as opposed to level) stakes would see you 4.48 points up with a yield of 15.04%.

I'd be interested to know if anyone's been following the selections at all, or at least taking an interest in how they perform.

Keeping the thread updated was a bit of a chore until I decided to start buying the Ipad edition of the paper every Friday night, which was also the only way to give myself a decent chance of getting on at the price. As luck would have it, I hit a decent run of results and the paper more than paid for itself.

28 of the 37 bets were with 365 who were not, shall we say, too keen to hold the price for long on the Saturday morning.

 

[Bedlam]

Yes, Harry I have been following & punting. As you say, the odds you post have often gone before I get my bet on & sometimes I take a different route (e.g. on the spreads). Thank you for posting Mr Pullein's  tips, the results have been very impressive.

[harry_rag]

No bet again this week, just thoughts on the Champions League and Play Off finals. Nice work if you can get it!