July 15 - July 21

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Ramos to beat Fognini 2.53 Pinnacle (7/10 points) Fognini isn't the type of player to play continuously well tournament in tournament out and after playing so well for such a long while, I believe this is probably an opponent he may slip up against. Too much tennis and probably feeling more than satisfied. Not sure the desire will be there.

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: July 15 - July 21

2pts M.Klizan to beat C.Berlocq 2.20 Bet365 1pt Klizan to win 2-0 3.50 Berlocq was very impressive last week winning the ATP title but he has had no rest since all those games and went straight into the match against Bachinger. I was tempted to back Bachinger and was pretty dismayed after he took the first set but Berlocq dug in deep and come back to win 2-1. I think Klizan won't give Berlocq that opportunity.

Had already taken Klizan, but you reinforced my belief and thus encouraged me on the 2-0, so backed that too, there's a good chance that hits. Thank you.

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 It will be a different story once he plays Haas. 4/4 top of the thread atleast puts me back into thread profit. +7.85

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: July 15 - July 21

It will be a different story once he plays Haas. 4/4 top of the thread atleast puts me back into thread profit. +7.85

We won't get an ounce of value when he runs into tommy man.

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Haas in Germany, 1.6 at best.

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 bet the handicap is -4.5/-5.5

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 2.50pts J.Janowicz -3.5 games to beat R.Haase 1.83 Janowicz got a bye in round 1 and this can always be abit dodgy in their first game [see Garcia-Lopez beating Youhzny & Hajek beating Gulbis) but Janowicz has more than these players because he is up and coming and a raw talent. He has beaten some top names on the clay this year and should have not too many problems against a Haase that struggled past unknown Swartzman

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 3pts J.Tipsarevic to beat R.Bemelmans 2-0 1.83 Bet365 Tipsarevic, I would imagine would have too much for Bemelmans who despite winning 2-0 in his first round will have a whole different challenge with Tipsarevic. They have never played before so no head-2-head to look upon but the sheer fact Tipsarevic is beating the likes of Anderson & Hewitt compared to challengers says it all 2pts T.Haas to beat C.Berlocq 2-0 2.00 Bet365 Haas got to the final of this event last year and I think he will go deep again. He won the first set of his last round 6-1 and then lost his concentration somewhat before switching it back on to win the match. Berlocq's form has been immense as of late but he MUST be getting tired now he has played so many matches and I think this is one quality opponent too much for him. 2pts B.Paire to beat J.Monaco 2.25 Bet365 Hard to tell how both played in round 1 but I think Monaco's will look alot better then it was because of Monfils streakyness. Paire is a great up and coming prospect and if the right Paire turns up I think he can win this and advance through. The h2h reads 1-0 to Paire only recently in Rome he won 2-1. 2pts D.Tursunov to beat Del Bonis 2.25 Bet365 1pt Tursunov 2-0 3.50 Another player I like the look of is Tursunov. Del Bonis done well to get through the last round beating the out-of-form Robredo but will come up against a player who actually has form and is in the mood to play here. No head-2-head here but I'm surprised that Turs is not the favourite so certainly some value 2pts F.Lopez to beat F.Mayer 2.37 Bet365 1pt F.Lopez to win 2-0 3.75 Bet365 Lopez sounded abit dodgy in his round 1 match but can understand him adjusting to the clay. He still won there 2-0 against a decent form Struff and I think he can get through Mayer too. They met once back in 2005 and Lopez won then. He has beat Gulbis on the clay aswell as Ferrer and I think he can win here

[WWWYKI!]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Glad to see you have Paire backed Fader,I have him in an outright bet.Not expecting him to be celebrating come the end of the week,But I think he might have it in him to go deep in one of these soon like he did in Rome.I was expecting a quarter final run with him here so a loss tomorrow would be disappointing,So hopefully like you wrote the good Paire show's up. Still waiting for the Monfils-Paire clash as well!

[The Charming One]

Re: July 15 - July 21 I'm also on: Paire to beat Monaco @ 2.49 with Pinnacle (4 units) Paire brought out the big stuff in the first round, beating Montanes, who is solid, in two easy sets. Monaco is pretty decent on clay but Paire beat him in Rome and if he turns up he has enough talent to repeat the result. I think the odds should be more at 2.1. Tursunov to beat Delbonis @ 2.44 with Pinnacle (4 units) Delbonis has been playing very well recently. His win against Robredo was decent but Robredo has been struggling with left-handers recently. On the other hand Tursunov is motivated and has won 6 of his last 7 matches against left-handers. I think this match will be very close but I think Tursunov should be around 2. Fognini to beat Granollers @ 1.49 with Pinnacle (4 units) I was worried about Fognini after his tournament victory last week but he easily beat Ramos in the first round. Granollers will be more of a challenge but the way Fognini is playing I see this as value as he's playing well enough to give anyone but Djokovic and Nadal a run on clay.

[Atko]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Five selections to share today: - NICOLAS ALMAGRO -4.5 GAMES (v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez) @ 2.00 with sbobet Liking the look of Nico this week. He was pretty solid against Kamke in R1 and only last week did he defeat GGL on clay 3-6 6-1 6-1, covering this line. Almagro has got too much power and consistency for GGL. Nico tends to take things pretty seriously on clay in this sort of event and I have no fears about backing him here. - ROGER FEDERER -5.5 GAMES (v Jan Hajek) @ 2.02 with sbobet Too much of a gulf in quality between these two. Federer, who is in Hamburg largely to try out a new racquet, was a bit rusty against Brands, but by the end of the match, he was in full flow. Hajek's had a decent year on clay, but he's a sparrer and has very little to hurt Fed with. Now that the Swiss has had a match on clay under his belt, I expect him to be ruthlessly efficient against someone of Hajek's capabilities. - FLORIAN MAYER -2.5 GAMES (v Feliciano Lopez) @ 1.84 with sbobet Past evidence shows that Lopez leads the H2H 3-1, but they haven't played since 2011 and not on clay since 2005. Mayer's a really streaky player, but wins over Dolgopolov and Davydenko suggest he's in the mood this week. I expect him to be on top of the match once he breaks down Lopez's serve. Lopez had plenty of tight games with Struff in R2 and Mayer, in the form he's in, won't be as charitable as his younger counterparts. - TOMMY HAAS -1.5 SETS (v Carlos Berlocq) @ 1.98 with sbobet I fear this is the end of the road for Carlos. He won Bastad, then had two three-setters in consecutive days, and now plays the home favourite in his home town. Actually, I don't think clay is Haas' best surface, but the fatigue element will probably end any hopes Berlocq has. Hard to see him fighting if he goes down a set. This is the German's to lose. - FERNANDO VERDASCO +1.5 GAMES (v Jerzy Janowicz) @ 1.84 with sbobet This is the Wimbledon semi-final that could have been. Verdasco seems to have taken heart from that run at SW19, getting to the Bastad final and then overcoming a tough R2 tie with Bautista Agut. Janowicz's serve is much easier for a lefty to return (Janowicz loves down the T on the deuce court, on to Nando's forehand) and the clay slows it too. Mentally, I'm not sure how JJ will deal with what happened at Wimbledon. Almost bombed to Haase last night - expecting another tough task for him here. :hope

[homunculus]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Going for Pennetta to bt Halep at my local bookie today. Pinnacle offers odds @3.60. (4/10) Halep did not play good in her previous match vs local youngster Peterson and it was apparent that she is a bit tired. She did admit the tiredness in her after match interview as well, (but she added that she is feeling well physically, go figure.). Pennetta leads H2H 1-0 (2010 Marabella clay 6-4 7-6). I'd say that odds over 3 are little bit silly.

[WinningTipster]

Re: July 15 - July 21 1 pick for ATP BOGOTA (CLARO OPEN): DUCKWORTH-POSPISIL OVER 21.5 GAMES @ 1.68 on pinnaclesports In my opinion, Pospisil is overrated his baseline game is poor and erratic. Duckworth is a better player from the back of the court and should keep it a close match at least

[brecki]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Andrea Gamiz HC +4.5 to beat Mathilde Johansson 1.90 @Bet 365 (4/10 points) Gamiz (299 world ranking) surprisingly won round 1 against Pironkova (56 world ranking),but looking a bit deeper Pironkova is 1/7 on clay in 2013. So no big surprise at all, but this will give a boost to the 20 years old girl from Venezuela. She hasn´t dropped a set yet in four matches at Bastad (including qualification rounds). Her record since may is 9 wins and 8 defeats, in 2013 she has 24 wins on clay and has been defeated 17 times. Mathilde Johansson is number 96 of the world, but looking on her stats she is not a solid clay player at all. Her 2013 statistics show just 8 wins on clay and 12 defeats. She won round one here against Cohen in straight sets but Cohen (8-16) is bad on clay, too. Since may Johansson has a 8-8 record similar to that of Gamiz. It could be a close match with momentum on Gamiz' side and I wouldn´t wonder if Gamiz can win this match. A +4.5 HC should be coverable at all.

[homunculus]

Re: July 15 - July 21

Going for Pennetta to bt Halep at my local bookie today. Pinnacle offers odds @3.60. (4/10) Halep did not play good in her previous match vs local youngster Peterson and it was apparent that she is a bit tired. She did admit the tiredness in her after match interview as well, (but she added that she is feeling well physically, go figure.). Pennetta leads H2H 1-0 (2010 Marabella clay 6-4 7-6). I'd say that odds over 3 are little bit silly.

Halep retires in set 3 after losing the second set and 2 games in a row in the third. :ok Hope someone followed.

[j6u1uv4n4]

Re: July 15 - July 21

Halep retires in set 3 after losing the second set and 2 games in a row in the third. :ok Hope someone followed.

Isn't the bet void in this case? At least mine is in bet365.

[homunculus]

Re: July 15 - July 21

Isn't the bet void in this case? At least mine is in bet365.

My local is one-ball (pays ML after match starts). Pinnacle requires one set finished. Bet365 requires the match to be completed. Never bet in Bet365 if there is tiredness factor in WTA (often ends with retirement).

[brecki]

Re: July 15 - July 21 FU** I followed on Bet365, too. And with Bet365 the bet is void, there are so many bookies who would have counted it. I use 5 different bookies, can anyone tell me why I used Bet 365 for this bet ??? (Sure I can, they had the best odds out of my 5 bookies) Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr..............

[WWWYKI!]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Paire disappoint.. :eyes

[homunculus]

Re: July 15 - July 21 WTA Bad-Gastein guard! Odds are not out yet, but next round Annika Beck should play with Karin Knapp. Annika won their only meeting this year, was the fav in that match, and is higher seed at Bad Gastein. Therefore I assume Knapp is going to be the underdog. However, Annika did not play Bad-Gastein so far, while Karin played semifinal here at 2007. Bad-Gastein is in high altitude, and some players have troubles to cope with that. Annika had MT in both R1 and R2 matches, probably because of bleeding nose. In addition to this, she is serving really bad, and Mandy Minella should have won their today's match. All in for Karin Knapp to bt Annika Beck once the odds are out!

[dusan.pinturicchio]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Pospil - Duckworth Pick: Duckwort +3 @1.96 Marathonbet 3/10 Pospil is overated player. I watched him in first round against Przsziezny and he had problems in first two sets agains Poland player. In third set he started to play better, but still that wasn't something brillyant... Duckwort play great in first round and destroy Bedeme... He serve great, and he have great forehand. This is first match between this two player, and it is 50/50 so +3 games on Duckworth is big value for me. Lopez - Mayer Pick: Lopez ML @2.37 Pinnacle 3/10 H2H - Feliciano Lopez leads 3:1 Pretty much close match, Lopez serving well can give a lot of pressure to Mayer and to be honest the Spanish cannot be so underdog, value 100% on him

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 15 - July 21 dusan.pinturicchio, we don't allow posts without reasoning here.

[dusan.pinturicchio]

Re: July 15 - July 21 I'm sorry, but when i post that I was hurry to play something in our local bookie... I write analysis...

[WWWYKI!]

Re: July 15 - July 21

WTA Bad-Gastein guard! Odds are not out yet, but next round Annika Beck should play with Karin Knapp. Annika won their only meeting this year, was the fav in that match, and is higher seed at Bad Gastein. Therefore I assume Knapp is going to be the underdog. However, Annika did not play Bad-Gastein so far, while Karin played semifinal here at 2007. Bad-Gastein is in high altitude, and some players have troubles to cope with that. Annika had MT in both R1 and R2 matches, probably because of bleeding nose. In addition to this, she is serving really bad, and Mandy Minella should have won their today's match. All in for Karin Knapp to bt Annika Beck once the odds are out!

Depend's on the odd's for me.Knapp beat a decent clay courter(Cadantu) in the last round but dropped a set.Beck look's a good prospect and with the draw opening up today both player's might feel like they're favourite's now and feel the pressure.I can imagine either one going a set up and losing their head.Knapp's in some steady form but her loss to Beck was only a few tournament's ago.

[Atko]

Re: July 15 - July 21

Five selections to share today: - NICOLAS ALMAGRO -4.5 GAMES (v Guillermo Garcia-Lopez) @ 2.00 with sbobet Liking the look of Nico this week. He was pretty solid against Kamke in R1 and only last week did he defeat GGL on clay 3-6 6-1 6-1, covering this line. Almagro has got too much power and consistency for GGL. Nico tends to take things pretty seriously on clay in this sort of event and I have no fears about backing him here. - ROGER FEDERER -5.5 GAMES (v Jan Hajek) @ 2.02 with sbobet Too much of a gulf in quality between these two. Federer, who is in Hamburg largely to try out a new racquet, was a bit rusty against Brands, but by the end of the match, he was in full flow. Hajek's had a decent year on clay, but he's a sparrer and has very little to hurt Fed with. Now that the Swiss has had a match on clay under his belt, I expect him to be ruthlessly efficient against someone of Hajek's capabilities. - FLORIAN MAYER -2.5 GAMES (v Feliciano Lopez) @ 1.84 with sbobet Past evidence shows that Lopez leads the H2H 3-1, but they haven't played since 2011 and not on clay since 2005. Mayer's a really streaky player, but wins over Dolgopolov and Davydenko suggest he's in the mood this week. I expect him to be on top of the match once he breaks down Lopez's serve. Lopez had plenty of tight games with Struff in R2 and Mayer, in the form he's in, won't be as charitable as his younger counterparts. - TOMMY HAAS -1.5 SETS (v Carlos Berlocq) @ 1.98 with sbobet I fear this is the end of the road for Carlos. He won Bastad, then had two three-setters in consecutive days, and now plays the home favourite in his home town. Actually, I don't think clay is Haas' best surface, but the fatigue element will probably end any hopes Berlocq has. Hard to see him fighting if he goes down a set. This is the German's to lose. - FERNANDO VERDASCO +1.5 GAMES (v Jerzy Janowicz) @ 1.84 with sbobet This is the Wimbledon semi-final that could have been. Verdasco seems to have taken heart from that run at SW19, getting to the Bastad final and then overcoming a tough R2 tie with Bautista Agut. Janowicz's serve is much easier for a lefty to return (Janowicz loves down the T on the deuce court, on to Nando's forehand) and the clay slows it too. Mentally, I'm not sure how JJ will deal with what happened at Wimbledon. Almost bombed to Haase last night - expecting another tough task for him here. :hope

Almagro d. Garcia-Lopez 6-2 6-3: saw bits and pieces of this, line was never really in doubt. Federer d. Hajek 6-4 6-3: Fed squandered five set points to seal the handicap; one of those things. Mayer d. Lopez 7-6 6-2: tight first set, but Lopez couldn't deal with Flo in the second. Haas d. Berlocq 6-2 6-4: watched all of this, Berlocq never really got going until 1-5 down in the second ... Verdasco d. Janowicz 7-5 4-0 ret: irritating that Jano retired when the match was almost done, but these things even themselves out over the season. Decent day overall :ok

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Back Santiago Giraldo to beat Kevin Anderson for a 2/10 stake at 3.00 with William Hill Giraldo's current form might not be very impressive, but I would expect him to try really hard in his home country and I can definitely see him beating Anderson on Friday. The South African might lack a bit of motivation and he didn't look all that great against Gomez in his first match of the week, so this looks like a decent price in my opinion. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/giraldo-vs-anderson-betting-santiago-giraldo-should-give-kevin-anderson-a-really-good-run-for-his-money-20130718 Back Ivo Karlovic to beat Adrian Mannarino for a 2/10 stake at 1.61 with Ladbrokes Can't see past Karlovic here, I really can't. He seems to be really motivated after having to miss a large chunk of the season due to illness, so I simply have to fancy his chances against Mannarino, who, in my opinion, doesn't really have what it takes to beat the guys with huge serves. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/karlovic-vs-mannarino-betting-ivo-karlovic-looks-value-against-adrian-mannarino-over-in-bogot--20130718 Back Arantxa Rus (+1.5 sets) to beat Yvonne Meusburger for a 2/10 stake at 2.40 with Pinnacle Rus has apparently decided to bounce back in style and I wouldn't be surprised by seeing her producing yet another upset in Bad Gastein, as she is certainly talented enough to beat someone like Meusburger. However, due to Meusburger's impressive record in Bad Gastein, I am actually going to go for the set handicap instead of the outright win this time around. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/rus-vs-meusburger-betting-arantxa-rus-can-surprise-everyone-with-yet-another-victory-in-bad-gastein-on-friday-20130718

[partio]

Re: July 15 - July 21 ATP Bogota Giraldo - Anderson, 2 @ 1.43 (Unibet) 8/10 Giraldo - Anderson -1.5 sets, 2 @ 2.10 (Unibet) 3/10 Don't know why they're giving chances for Giraldo. Personally I think Anderson would be rated about 1.20 or like that for straight win. South-African has been solid player lately extremely on hard court and beaten many tough players top of the world. Giraldo is 96 ranked Columbian and I only see the reason they're giving chances to him because his playing at home. But I don't see "home-advantage" take any difference here. Two years ago Anderson took over Giraldo 2-1 but now I see South-African growing up some level and at least straight win for Anderson is rated too high. I believe 2-0 is also more likely final score but I wouldn't contribute too many stakes for that.

[dusan.pinturicchio]

Re: July 15 - July 21

Pospil - Duckworth Pick: Duckwort +3 @1.96 Marathonbet 3/10 Lopez - Mayer Pick: Lopez ML @2.37 Pinnacle 3/10

Rus - Meusberger Pick: Rus ML @4.60 Pinnacle 2/10 ; Rus -1.5 sets @9.20 Pinnacle 1/10 This odds are just crazy to me. Arantxa is young player who played best on clay. She beat Torro Flor and Cabela in first two matches on this tournament, even if in that matches she also been huge underdog. Meusberg has 30 years old and she's motion is very bad. She has two easy wons in first two rounds, and play great in that matches, but this odd is huge value for me. Also, Rus is left hand player, and that might be some problem for Meusberger...

[homunculus]

Re: July 15 - July 21

WTA Bad-Gastein guard! Odds are not out yet, but next round Annika Beck should play with Karin Knapp. Annika won their only meeting this year, was the fav in that match, and is higher seed at Bad Gastein. Therefore I assume Knapp is going to be the underdog. However, Annika did not play Bad-Gastein so far, while Karin played semifinal here at 2007. Bad-Gastein is in high altitude, and some players have troubles to cope with that. Annika had MT in both R1 and R2 matches, probably because of bleeding nose. In addition to this, she is serving really bad, and Mandy Minella should have won their today's match. All in for Karin Knapp to bt Annika Beck once the odds are out!

Karin started slightly above evens, but then there was massive shift and she is now around 1.75ish. There appeared news that the MTO in Annika Beck's last match was merely tactical. In short words - it smells. I am leaving the idea of the prematch wager and will try my luck inplay.

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 2pts I.Karlovic to beat A.Mannarino 2-0 2.37 Bet365 I was impressed with how well Karlovic got the job done Vs Sijsling. I thought Sijsling would give him alot more problems then he did but Karl come through in straight sets and I think he will do the same here. Mannarino hasn't got the best return in the world and that's what you really need to get under Karlovic's skin or you need an equally good serve. Mannarino doesn't play big serves well, he lost to Bozoljac not long ago on this surface. If this goes to a tie breaker Id back Karlovic to win them all day, as he returning weakness will really come through in that situation. 1pt S.Giraldo to win the first set AND lose the match 6.50 Bet365 Giraldo is being undervalued here. I watched Anderson Vs Gomez and backed the handicap in favour of Gomez. Anderson has been away from the hard for much of the year and he much prefers the clay. It's far from his preferred surface. Against Gomez, he had 9 break points and converted just 1 of those 9. Infact, he struggled so much he was close to losing the match. Giraldo showed against Guccione that he can return well on this surface and he will need that again here to beat Anderson. These 2 met before in 2011 and Anderson won 2-1 after Giraldo took the first set. I think one major aspect here also is that Giraldo is the home player and the crowd will certainly drive him on in the first set. I will take a dabble at some nice value of the same thing happening.