July 15 - July 21

[CzechPunter]

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[CzechPunter]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Back Karin Knapp to win WTA Bad Gastein for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with BetVictor Back Patricia Mayr to win WTA Bad Gastein for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with BetVictor The tournament in Bad Gastein has always offered pretty specific conditions and I just cannot see the reasons for having Petkovic and Barthel as such huge favourites, especially since they are in the same half of the draw. Patricia Mayr has always done well in Bad Gastein and looks like a good bet at these massive odds, while Karin Knapp is in the easier half of the draw and has enough quality to walk away with the trophy on Sunday. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/wta-bad-gastein-betting-andrea-petkovic-and-mona-barthel-look-a-bit-overrated-in-bad-gastein-this-week-20130714 Back Klara Zakopalova to win WTA Bastad for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with BetVictor Back Caroline Garcia to win WTA Bastad for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power Serena Williams is the obvious favourite for the title, but one really has to wonder about the reasons for her being in such an unimportant event. Will she win it? Possibly. Will she be at her very best? Definitely not. That is why I am going to pick two long shots here - Klara Zakopalova is good enough to beat anyone with the exception of a motivated Serena Williams, while Caroline Garcia could make her real breakthrough in one of these smaller events and has a draw that doesn't look completely unplayable. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/wta-bastad-betting-going-against-serena-williams-could-offer-plenty-of-value-over-the-next-few-days-20130714

[The Charming One]

Re: July 15 - July 21 I don't really have any feelings towards the outrights, not sure who's going to win any of the tournaments or go deep. I'm liking one first round match: P. Andujar vs D. Tursunov for Match @ 2.7 with Pinnacle (2 units) Tursunov will see this as a winnable match, Andujar is a very flaky player and Tursunov has been getting some difficult draws recently coming back from injury. In his last three tournaments he's beaten Dogopolov and narrowly lost to Haas and Hanescu. I think he's playing a good standard and taking his tennis very seriously. Andujar on the other hand, despite some positive results recently, has thrown in some shaky performances like throwing away a convincing lead against L. Mayer. This match will be close and there's definitely a bit of value siding with Tursunov here.

[WinningTipster]

Re: July 15 - July 21 1 pick for WTA BASTAD: TORRO TO DEFEAT RUS BY 2:0 SETS @ 1.55 on pinnaclesports / expekt Rus is struggling with form and injuries for the past year, should not have enough consistency on clay against Torro.

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 2pts X.Malisse to win ATP Bogota 15.00 Bet365 I like the price of Malisse here. He would have the easier side of the draw on route to the final. He would have to beat the likes of Falla and Ebden in the early rounds before his first test of Tipsarevic. He has the better head-2-head with Tipsarevic though. He would then face most likely Pospisil which is winnable and get to a final against, most likely Anderson. That would be difficult but 14/1 seems good value for that in my opinion.

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 1pt E.Gulbis to win ATP Hamburg 34.00 Betvictor 1pt F.Lopez to win ATP Hamburg 50.00 BetVictor 1pt F.Fognini to win ATP Hamburg 50.00 Betfred Lots of value in this tournament as it's so large. I'm going to side with the inform players and over-look the big time players. Gulbis will play Federer and has beaten him in the head-2-head on clay. Lopez was on some very good form last time out winning a clay tournament and Fognini the same was excellent beating Kohlschreiber in the final easily who looked so good against Monfils.

[partio]

Re: July 15 - July 21 ATP Hamburg P.Lorenzi - D.Brands 2.40 - 1.55 Any opinions about this match today. Look like most of people are taking Brands winning this, any value? Lorenzi have won twice Brands on clay few years ago but lately Brands has done pretty well on clay beating some solid players. Also there was maybe some kind of injury problems? in last game while Lorenzi retired against Riba-Madrid on Challenger Tour. I thought it should been clear win for Brands and it's enough taken by these odds. What do you think?

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Falla to beat Malisse 2.18 Pinnacle (7/10 points) Malisse is a player that likes to make the play and be on the frontfoot, he doesn't have time for the clay. neither the discipline or the desire to compete on the surface, he's here for the pay cheque and he'll be gone. Falla a decent claycourter enough to take care of business here despite his injury issues, he is patriotic about playing at home and always does well in Columbia.

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: July 15 - July 21

2pts X.Malisse to win ATP Bogota 15.00 Bet365 I like the price of Malisse here. He would have the easier side of the draw on route to the final. He would have to beat the likes of Falla and Ebden in the early rounds before his first test of Tipsarevic. He has the better head-2-head with Tipsarevic though. He would then face most likely Pospisil which is winnable and get to a final against, most likely Anderson. That would be difficult but 14/1 seems good value for that in my opinion.

Good luck on this one Fader, have you seen Malisse's recent record on the red dirt though? He couldn't be bothered with it. He's too eager to end rallies quick and especially so now he's in his mid 30s.

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Will see how it goes :) if he applies himself he should beat the draw. Depends if he does or not.

[brecki]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Bogota Tournement is played on HARD COURT !!!

[RuleBritaniaa]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Oh my god, I am an idiot. I better cover my bet now. :(

[JuMeSyn]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Yes, Bogota is in hard court. Common mistake around the punting community since yesterday, and I was actually tricked by that as well. Glad I didn't do any outright bet, possibly will wait until tomorrow to do anything.

[brecki]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Medina Garrigues to beat Dominguez-Lino @1.60 Tipico (5/10 points) Anabel Medina Garrigues leads the H2H 5-0 with four wins on clay, the surface that has to be played at Bastad. Ok, world number 92 meats 54 but even the bookmakers pay attention to the H2H stats. Garrigues is a good fighter never giving up any point and she seams to have the better service (if you can say this when talking about ladies tennis). I´ve seen Dominguez-Lino loosing 1-6 4-6 against Roberta Vinci on friday not having any chance. Sure Vinci is 11th of the world but th way she lost gives every chance to Garrigues to win this match.

[tk2wndw]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Great call charming one, after your post I researched this match a little bit, and the only factor favoring Andujar was his ranking, 50 vs 68 for Tursunov. Tursunov also had some solid wins earlier in the year beating Ferrer and Tipsarevic. This match looked like a pick em to me, if not a slight favorite for Tursunov. I got +170 with 5dimes.

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Tomorrow's previews : ATP Bogota 2.5pts X.Malisse to beat A.Falla 1.80 Bet365 1pt X.Malisse to beat A.Falla 2-0 3.00 Bet365 This has drifted now and is actually quite nice value. Malisse has the advantage in the head-2-heads. They played in Feb on the same hard court and Malisse won pretty easily 6-3 6-3 in under an hour where as Falla's only win on the hard against Malisse was back in 2011. ATP Hamburg 2pts V.Hanescu to beat B.Kavcic 2-0 2.00 Bet365 Hanescu showed some decent form on the clay at Stuttgart. He beat Tursunov, Belucci and most impressingly Paire in straight sets before going out to in-form Kohlschreiber who got to the final. I think he will have too much here for Kavcic who is more used to playing challenger events on the clay and isn't around the big boys as much as Hanescu.

[Banner]

Re: July 15 - July 21

Tomorrow's previews : ATP Bogota 2.5pts X.Malisse to beat A.Falla 1.80 Bet365 1pt X.Malisse to beat A.Falla 2-0 3.00 Bet365 This has drifted now and is actually quite nice value. Malisse has the advantage in the head-2-heads. They played in Feb on the same hard court and Malisse won pretty easily 6-3 6-3 in under an hour where as Falla's only win on the hard against Malisse was back in 2011. ATP Hamburg 2pts V.Hanescu to beat B.Kavcic 2-0 2.00 Bet365 Hanescu showed some decent form on the clay at Stuttgart. He beat Tursunov, Belucci and most impressingly Paire in straight sets before going out to in-form Kohlschreiber who got to the final. I think he will have too much here for Kavcic who is more used to playing challenger events on the clay and isn't around the big boys as much as Hanescu.

Fader do you ever bet with anyone but Bet365? You can increase your profit margins by about 9% using other bookies! Malisse 1.87 @ Unibet, Hanescu 2-0 2.2 @ Paddy Power I know alot of people like using the same bookie but makes sense getting the best odds!

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 15 - July 21

Fader do you ever bet with anyone but Bet365? You can increase your profit margins by about 9% using other bookies! Malisse 1.87 @ Unibet, Hanescu 2-0 2.2 @ Paddy Power I know alot of people like using the same bookie but makes sense getting the best odds!

http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/141078-July-8-July-14?p=2335060&highlight=#post2335060

[Banner]

Re: July 15 - July 21

http://forum.punterslounge.com/threads/141078-July-8-July-14?p=2335060&highlight=#post2335060

Ahhh I must of missed that! Thanks!

[sneazr]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Agree on the malisse pick, he should have too much for Falla on a hardcourt thoughts on GGL and L Mayer wins ?

[CzechPunter]

Re: July 15 - July 21

Agree on the malisse pick, he should have too much for Falla on a hardcourt thoughts on GGL and L Mayer wins ?

Both look like backable favourites to me. Back Eleni Daniilidou to beat Andrea Hlavackova for a 2/10 stake at 4.21 with Pinnacle Hlavackova seems to be in a very strange form right now, winning matches that she should be losing and throwing away comfortable leads against players she should be beating comfortably. I therefore simply cannot have her at such a short price against a player that is strong and experienced enough to beat her even after an injury break. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/daniilidou-vs-hlavackova-betting-eleni-daniilidou-could-be-too-strong-for-andrea-hlavackova-in-austria-20130716 Back Petra Martic to beat Andrea Petkovic for a 2/10 stake at 4.60 with BetVictor Petkovic might be the favourite and she is going to win this more often than not, but these odds just scream value to me. Martic leads the H2H record 2-0 and has finally bounced back after an awful start to the season, so to have her above 4.00 just seems a bit off in all fairness, especially since Petkovic doesn't seem to be at her very best these days. Full preview here: http://www.punterslounge.com/martic-vs-petkovic-betting-petra-martic-has-what-it-takes-to-defeat-andrea-petkovic-for-the-third-time-in-a-row-20130716

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21

Agree on the malisse pick, he should have too much for Falla on a hardcourt thoughts on GGL and L Mayer wins ?

L Mayer was one I looked at but was abit skinny on Bet365. Looking now it's 1.72 so still abit skinny. Struff I don't rate atall but he did keep things tight against Verdasco in the 2nd set. at Bastad. Similar story with Traver. Id say Garcia-Lopez is a good pick but I left it alone because Gimeno has had some decent form on the clay beating Monaco, an in-form Feliciano Lopez and Gasquet.

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 3pts R.Bemelmans to beat N.Barrientos 2-0 1.72 Bet365 Skinny price perhaps, but I think there is quite a big difference in quality between the 2. Barrientos [ranked 293rd] is primarily use to playing challengers and although he has had some early year success, winning the Mexico event and getting to the final of the Guatemala event, he never had to beat any decent players there apart from maybe Benneteau in the final of Mexico. Bemelmans [ranked 153rd] has alittle more exposure to playing higher ranked players and got to the last 128 of the Australian open this year, pushing Vasselin to the brink in 5 sets and losing the final set 11-9. He also pushed Stakhovsky close losing 7-6 7-6 so he can obviously return to a decent standard and looking at his serving 63%, 77% service games won, I think that should be OK to win this 2-0. I think the only reason this price is 1.72, instead of what it should be 1.57 is probably because Barrientos is in his home town, which although will push him on it doesn't give anyone super-powers :)

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 2pts M.Przysiezny to beat V.Pospisil 2.37 Bet365 I was going to go with total games here instead, as I think it's going to be a tight one but I'd rather shoot for some value. These 2 played in the final of Johannesburg recently, also on the hard court and Przysiezny took the first set 7-6 and from that lost the 2nd set 6-0 and later in the 3rd set retired so we don't know the full story there but looking at his recent results he is in some decent form. Got to the last 32 of Wimbledon, on the grass and pushed Anderson close and also likes the fast surfaces like hard so I'm guessing this could be a 2-1 either way and I'll side with the value.

[Banner]

Re: July 15 - July 21

3pts R.Bemelmans to beat N.Barrientos 2-0 1.72 Bet365 Skinny price perhaps, but I think there is quite a big difference in quality between the 2. Barrientos [ranked 293rd] is primarily use to playing challengers and although he has had some early year success, winning the Mexico event and getting to the final of the Guatemala event, he never had to beat any decent players there apart from maybe Benneteau in the final of Mexico. Bemelmans [ranked 153rd] has alittle more exposure to playing higher ranked players and got to the last 128 of the Australian open this year, pushing Vasselin to the brink in 5 sets and losing the final set 11-9. He also pushed Stakhovsky close losing 7-6 7-6 so he can obviously return to a decent standard and looking at his serving 63%, 77% service games won, I think that should be OK to win this 2-0. I think the only reason this price is 1.72, instead of what it should be 1.57 is probably because Barrientos is in his home town, which although will push him on it doesn't give anyone super-powers :)

Bemelmans got injured last week (left calf strain) and the effects of the altitude (2600m) may affect him! I actually backed this yesterday @ 2 with Paddy Power and then found out about his injury!

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21 Hanescu with the mindset of a potato goes 6-4 1-0 up and self-implodes. One I like the look of : 2.5pts Tursunov to beat J.Chardy 2.50 Bet365 1pt Tursunov to win 2-0 4.00 Bet365 Tursunov seemingly in very good form to beat Andujar. Especially coming back from a set down shows great desire right now. Chardy, is he really going to be bothered here? I'm not so sure and he looked less than impressive when he lost to Berrer on the clay, after a bye in that tournament too.

[Merc]

Re: July 15 - July 21

2pts M.Przysiezny to beat V.Pospisil 2.37 Bet365 I was going to go with total games here instead, as I think it's going to be a tight one but I'd rather shoot for some value. These 2 played in the final of Johannesburg recently, also on the hard court and Przysiezny took the first set 7-6 and from that lost the 2nd set 6-0 and later in the 3rd set retired so we don't know the full story there but looking at his recent results he is in some decent form. Got to the last 32 of Wimbledon, on the grass and pushed Anderson close and also likes the fast surfaces like hard so I'm guessing this could be a 2-1 either way and I'll side with the value.

I love some of your picks, however, I do think you're trying to tip too much. You haven't seen Przysiezny last tournament so how could you give an accurate prediction? Your reasoning is based on statistics. Pospisil is proper favorite based as Przysiezny was terrible.

[froment]

Re: July 15 - July 21

1pt Tursunov to win 2-0 4.00 Bet365

You can have Tursunov -1.5 sets, which is the same, at 5.20 at Pinny - that's 40% bigger profit!

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21

I love some of your picks, however, I do think you're trying to tip too much. You haven't seen Przysiezny last tournament so how could you give an accurate prediction? Your reasoning is based on statistics. Pospisil is proper favorite based as Przysiezny was terrible.

If you don't like a tip my man, don't follow it.

[Fader]

Re: July 15 - July 21

You can have Tursunov -1.5 sets' date=' which is the same, at 5.20 at Pinny - that's 40% bigger profit![/quote'] I know, I only use Bet365. I think I need this in my signature lol