May 20 - May 25

[CzechPunter]

Last week before the RG!

[WWWYKI!]

Re: May 20 - May 25 Thinking of backing Kohlschreiber but after last week's wierdness I'm not too sure..

[Banner]

Re: May 20 - May 25 Fognini looks good to win ATP Nice at odds of 13, if he can beat Simon I think hes got a great chance

[Guardiola]

Re: May 20 - May 25 Back Fyrstenberg/Matkowski (-3 games) to beat Ramos/Anjudar. 1,90 @ marathonbet (8/10). This line is too low in my eyes. Fyrstenberg/Matkowski is a top10 double with an experience of over 500 matches played together. Ramos/Anjudar both have the focus on the singles, both are grinders and obviously without any ambitions in the doubles. Expect a clear win here.

[Fader]

Re: May 20 - May 25 2.5pts E/W on C.Berlocq to win ATP Nice 16/1 Bet365 I like the draw for Berlocq here. He has Mayer first round where he has a winning record recently. He would then play Granollers and I think Berlocq would have a chance there. They played in 2012 and it was a tight win for Granollers 7-5, 3-6, 7-5. If he managed to get past Granollers I'd imagine him having to play Montanes. They have never met on Clay. He'd probably get Querrey in the Semi's who again he hasn't played on Clay. These are players that Berlocq can get something from. He has been decent recently getting set's from the likes of Nadal and Wawrinka and if he puts the effort in, I can see him getting to the final. Probably against Isner :P

[Fader]

Re: May 20 - May 25 2pts K.Kanepi to win the WTA Brussels 8/1 Fancy Kanepi to do well here. She was excellent in Madrid beating the likes of Hantuckova and Navarro in straight sets and her draw looks good here. She can come through Cibulkova and then have ties against Tsurenko who I think she will beat and Lepchenko who I believe has a slight injury. Kanepi for me in this. Vinci the favourite in this tournament but she didn't look all that good in Rome.

[Regnavetto]

Re: May 20 - May 25 Andujar (-4.5g) to beat Hewitt. 2.45 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Nice first round encounter between Madrid half-finalist Pablo Andujar and form world number 1, Lleyton Hewitt. I would’ve loved to back Hewitt, as he’s a player I really enjoyed watching when he was one of the top guns. Full of fighting spirit, great mentality, smart scrapper. It was always a difficult for anyone when having to face the Aussie. However those are old times and hard facts define the winning punter so I’m forced to back Pablo in this one. After losing his crown in Casablanca, he has redeemed himself in Madrid by reaching the half-final. He didn’t show anything really spectacular, but shown one of the most important things when it comes to clay tennis: solidness. After that run he’s had rest to build fresh on that momentum towards the French Open. Like said, he’s facing Hewitt. The Ozzie has played three clay games in 2012 and is yet to play on real clay in 2013. His only match this year on ‘clay’ was in Houston which is a lot faster than traditional clay. And even with those faster conditions he failed to beat Martin Alund. Hewitt is obviously trying to gain some momentum towards the French Open. Unfortunately for him he’s had a bad draw and will have to play an established clay player right away. I’m worried Lleyton won’t be able to keep his game solid throughout the match or have enough aggressiveness to push through Andujar as Pablo will grind the whole match. Ultimately I can’t see a rusty Hewitt troubling Andujar and I feel he is still overrated in the sense that his price is inflated a bit by his name.

[Fader]

Re: May 20 - May 25 5pts Andujar -4 AH to beat Hewitt 2.25 Bet365 No doubt better odds elsewhere, but I prefer to stick to one bookie. These odds are pretty good for the match-up and I think it's solely because of Hewitt's long-standing career that it's available. Hewitt has never been any good at Clay. He has hardly even played on Clay and not won for years on clay. Lost to unknown Alunda in Houston and 3-1 to Kavcic in French Open. Andujar is best on clay. 10 wins already this year and recently got to a final. I just don't see this being close.

[Fader]

Re: May 20 - May 25 3pts S.Giraldo to beat G.Monfils 2.50 Bet365 1pt S.Giraldo to win 2-0 4.00 Bet365 Giraldo has much improved recently. He is a very good clay-court player nowadays and is beating people below him easily and only losing to plays above him marginally (2-1 wawrinka recently) . Monfils on the other hand is on the way down. He had to qualify in this tournament and long are the days gone where he was a french No.1. He is currently 109th in the world compared to Giraldo's 78th and Monfils only beat Giraldo 2-1 in their last tie... a tie in which Monfils was on top of his game in 2011. 2.50 represents good value.

[Regnavetto]

Re: May 20 - May 25 Pablo Mugujar

[Fader]

Re: May 20 - May 25 Unreal really. 6-3 / 3-1 it was and he let some less than average Hewitt come back to 6-3 / 4-6 / 6-3. lose by 0.5. Kind of thing really irritates me.

[shobtop]

Re: May 20 - May 25 Hi guys long time lurker here. Just thought I'd point out some odds which I see as way over what they should be. Yen-Hsun Lu is $51 to win ATP Nice...any value here? In the matches I've seen him play he really goes for his shots and can play quite aggressively which has troubled some very good players in the past. He just knocked off Seppi in 3 sets which is a decent win. Maybe I see him as a danger because Lu always seems to play well when I back against him, I don't know...but the field doesn't seem overly strong so I feel he is a chance. Thoughts?

[CzechPunter]

Re: May 20 - May 25 Cannot see him winning really, but then again, the price is massive, so a small punt might be worth it anyway.

[keepsakes]

Re: May 20 - May 25 Folks, what do you make of Troicki -4.5 @ 1.98 (marathon)? It is not from my research and credits due to icetennis of blogabet

[Banner]

Re: May 20 - May 25

Hi guys long time lurker here. Just thought I'd point out some odds which I see as way over what they should be. Yen-Hsun Lu is $51 to win ATP Nice...any value here? In the matches I've seen him play he really goes for his shots and can play quite aggressively which has troubled some very good players in the past. He just knocked off Seppi in 3 sets which is a decent win. Maybe I see him as a danger because Lu always seems to play well when I back against him, I don't know...but the field doesn't seem overly strong so I feel he is a chance. Thoughts?

Tht was his 3rd ever win on clay against Seppi yesterday so I doubt it!

[Fader]

Re: May 20 - May 25 Hopefully a better day today. 2pts I.Sijsling to beat Y.Korolev - 2.62 Bet365 Igor ranked 68th right and in his best ranking of his life this year (a 65th in January) His favorite surface is perhaps Grass but he is also capable on Clay and despite his record on clay of played 2, lost 2 this year I think he will have just about enough here. He most recently lost to Levine which was a worry, but that was in a tournament I don't think would be high in his priority list. He then lost to Paire in Oeiras which is nothing shameful and Kuznetsov in Barcelona. Korolev has a better record on his favoured clay (hence the odds) but he is beating people such as Laaksonen and other players ranked lowly. I won't be going mad here, small stakes. Id have this matched at around 1.80/2.20 so abit of value on Igor.

[Fader]

Re: May 20 - May 25 3pts D.Brands to beat J.Hajek 2-0 - 1.90 Bet365 Brands I think will win here in 2. Possibly a struggle in first set but his serve should see him through in both. He has this year beaten the likes of Tipsarevic on this surface, his favorite and I don't see Hajek causing his serve any trouble. Hajek's best ranking was back in 2006 and has slipped down the rankings to 95th now. He has lost to the likes of Fischer in Rome and Darcis in Ostrava. He has a little run most recently on the tour where he beat de bakker 7-6,7-6 and then Marchenko but then went out to Ramos. Brands in 2 for me.

[Fader]

Re: May 20 - May 25 3pts S.Stakhovsky -1.5 games to beat Dutra Silva 1.83 Bet365 Both these had to qualify. Stak had the harder of the two games beating Laaksonen in 3. Silva had Jouan who he beat in 2. I think Stak on the handicap for a couple of reasons. One is that he returned better in the qualifying games. Second is that Dutra silva tends to give up on sets if he gets broke. Countless times i've seen 6-7, 0-6 or 6-4, 0-6, 0-6 etc so even if Dutra wins this we might get a win.

[Fader]

Re: May 20 - May 25 2.5pts F.Fognini 5.5 games to beat M.Cecchinato 2.00 Bet365 Battle of the Italians in Nice. I don't see Cecchinato pushing Fogna here. He has played small time events, but I don't think he can match Fogna in any part of his game. He tends to get beat by players in the 100-200 ranking bracket consistently and Fognini is far above that bracket on the clay. He has had some very good results recently, Fognini. He beat Seppi convincingly before getting Nadal in the last 32 which he was never going to win but previous to that he went deep in the tour getting to the semi's and losing to Djokovic. He beat Berdych and Gasguet there, and both in straight sets. That's not easy!

[Guardiola]

Re: May 20 - May 25 Two outrights for these week´s tournaments: Back Pablo Anjudar to win Nice Open. 12,25 @ pinnacle (2/10) I fancy Anjudar here to have some chances to win a tournament. He is in quite a decent shape, playing his solid style of tennis once more. The next round he´ll face Lu. Seppi managed to lose here anyway and I simply don´t know how he achieved that as Lu is simply a push-over on clay court and wasn´t in big shape on hard as well...But well, it is Seppi. So after that match, which Anjudar simply has to win, he will face Simon. He is not favorite there, but he has his chances as Simon has no big shot to hurt a solid player like Anjudar is. Perhaps Simon has the French Open in his head yet. After that the draw would we wide open for Anjudar. Back Juan Monaco to win ATP Power Horse Cup. 5,2 @ pinnacle (4/10). Monaco might be the strongest player here as Haas is a bit tired after his winning row at Munich and Madrid. Monaco is in the easier half of the draw, facing only an out-of-shape Tipsarevic on his way to the final. In the other half there are players like Haas, Kohlschreiber, Nieminen and even Gulbis to beat. So these odds seem to be value.

[WinningTipster]

Re: May 20 - May 25 1 PICK FOR WTA BRUSSELS: WICKMAYER TO DEFEAT HAMPTON @ 1.53 on pinnaclesports It is always risky to bet on a favorite one week before a Grand Slam, as many favorites will just lose in the first round of a smaller event to prepare for a Grand Slam. However, I feel that Wickmayer playing at home will really try to win and no doubt that on clay she is a favorite against a very talented hard court player Hampton.

[Fader]

Re: May 20 - May 25 3pts N.Davydenko -2.5 games to beat A.Bedene 1.90 Bet365 2pts N.Davydenko to win 2-0 2.37 Bet365 I think Bedene is a decent clay-courter, but I also know that his favorite tournament is Roland Garos and that could mean that his eye is on that this afternoon. Davydenko, when you look at his clay record this year (won 2, lost 5) looks pretty rubbish but then when you see the players he has played you can see his season so far hasn't been too bad. He tends to beat the weaker players in straight sets and pushes the ones above his ability to the wire. He beat Brands 2-0 recently and then went out to Tsonga. Along with Berdych, Raonic and Granollers. He has not lost to anyone under a 56th ranking. Bedene this year has done well in Rome winning the tournament but he was beating the likes of Schwank, Mannarino and co (all in the 100+ bracket) I think Davydenko will come through here in straight sets.

[Fader]

Re: May 20 - May 25 2pts R.Harrison to beat P.H.Mathieu 2.25 Bet365 Hard one to call this because one the one hand Mathieu has been awful of late and on the other hand Harrison lost his previous game and prefer's grass really. The reason I'm swayed to Harrison though is his recent form. Up until recently he was on an 8-game winning streak. He defeated Polansky in Q2 and won a tournament not long ago. He then got to the semi's again in his next tournament but lost to Kudla in the semi-final to end his winning streak. He will want to get back on winning ways. Mathieu recently on clay has lost to Volandri[114th], Souza[121st], and Darcis[105th] and is still searching for some form.

[Fader]

Re: May 20 - May 25 3pts V.Troicki -4.5 games to beat M.Russell 1.80 Bet365 The handicap didn't work well for the Fognini bet despite him winning 6-1 in the second set but I will try to redeem myself with this one. I feel there is a wealth of difference between these two. I also note that Russell is 5ft 8 and Troicki is 6ft 4. Russell is 35, Trociki 27. Results recently... Russell done very little losing to average players in straight sets... Troicki going fairly deep in a few tournaments and only going out to players such as Rosol and Kohlscreiber. Only one winner for me. Big serving Troicki should do this with a handicap.

[Banner]

Re: May 20 - May 25 For the French Open Betfred are offering double the odds if the player you choose to win outright goes on to win without losing a set. Serena Williams would be the obvious player as she has won 7 straight matches in straight sets. Also Unibet are offering moneyback if Nadal wins the French Open again Djokovic would be the best bet!

[Banner]

Re: May 20 - May 25

Nadal is 4/7 and Serena Evens. So how do you double odds? Is it double the fractionals, ie 8/7 and 2/1 respectively or is it double the decimals ie 3.14 and 4 respectively? Either way, I'll be having a nibble at both! (I've just realised the offer is treble the odds for the men's tournament but my question is still the same.) Also, be careful with money back offers as I've been screwed over with them in the past. You may find it's bonus bets you get back rather than withdrawable cash.

Im think it is bonus bets you get back, however you can turn this into cash by just backing a market and then laying it on betfair and you may lose £1 but its turned into real cash. Serena would get doubled to 2/1 if she was to not lose a set!

[Banner]

Re: May 20 - May 25

Is there any reason why Monfils is favourite to beat Fognini today?

Monfils has won his last few matches and the challenger event recently. No doubt Fognini is the better player and should be favourite, I doubt he will be to interested though, im staying away from these tournaments!

[amity]

Re: May 20 - May 25

Monfils has won his last few matches and the challenger event recently. No doubt Fognini is the better player and should be favourite, I doubt he will be to interested though, im staying away from these tournaments!

yes, it's hard to predict i watched some of the match yesterday giraldo played well in the first set and part of the second, but he seemed to lose interest after that and monfils capitalised on his opponent's lack of focus i would say that many of the better players in this tournament have one eye on Paris, so think carefully before throwing in your few shekels fognini also had a poor first set yesterday, so it's really difficult to say what will happen today chances are one of them will go 'ah f&ck it, i'm not bothered, and it means i'll have a few more days to practise for RG if i throw this match' in fact, they could both be thinking that way, so best to take a watching brief on this one

[homunculus]

Re: May 20 - May 25 OK, I told I would not post till FO, but I lied :-) Hampton to bt Flipkens @2.52 Pinnacle (6/10) As it happened, Brussels schedule is rather tight bacause of the weather. Both Hampton and Flipkens played their R1 matches today, Hampton beating Yanina Wickmayer in a quality 3-set match, Flipkens beating lame Madison Keys (about zillion backhand unforceds) in a 3-setter 6-4 1-6 6-2. Flipkens had problems with her back relatively recently, which casused her to retire in the match against Goerges in Stuttgart. Since then, she defeated only the out-of-form Mona Barthel, and today she managed to defeat rather inconsistent Keys. Hampton has not stellar record on clay this year, too, but her performance today against Wickmayer was outstanding. H2H is 2-0 for Hampton, though both matches were on hard (Australian open 2012 and Miami 2011). The only factor speaking in favour of Flipkens is home soil - but that was Wickmayer's case, too. I noticed that Jamie had bandaged right wrist during the match, but I have no reports about injury, and her schedule recently was rather light, so this is probably nothing serious. However, this is the only reason I am not going 8/10. GL. edit: I forget to stress out that they play in about 1-2 hours TODAY.

[amity]

Re: May 20 - May 25 something that you guys might already be aware of, but i thought i'd point it out anyway the womens' french open qualifiers are on at the minute and the winner must win by two clear games if it comes down to the final set, so if you've got two evenly matched players and it comes down to the final set, statistically speaking, you're better off plumping for the overs (as i type, Panova vs Zahalova Strycova is just about to become 8-8 in the final set)