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York Ebor Festival Tipster Competition : 19th August - 22nd August


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About Regnavetto

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    Newbie Punter
  • Birthday 09/09/1990
  1. Re: May 20 - May 25 Andujar (-4.5g) to beat Hewitt. 2.45 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Nice first round encounter between Madrid half-finalist Pablo Andujar and form world number 1, Lleyton Hewitt. I would’ve loved to back Hewitt, as he’s a player I really enjoyed watching when he was one of the top guns. Full of fighting spirit, great mentality, smart scrapper. It was always a difficult for anyone when having to face the Aussie. However those are old times and hard facts define the winning punter so I’m forced to back Pablo in this one. After losing his crown in Casablanca, he has redeemed himself in Madrid by reaching the half-final. He didn’t show anything really spectacular, but shown one of the most important things when it comes to clay tennis: solidness. After that run he’s had rest to build fresh on that momentum towards the French Open. Like said, he’s facing Hewitt. The Ozzie has played three clay games in 2012 and is yet to play on real clay in 2013. His only match this year on ‘clay’ was in Houston which is a lot faster than traditional clay. And even with those faster conditions he failed to beat Martin Alund. Hewitt is obviously trying to gain some momentum towards the French Open. Unfortunately for him he’s had a bad draw and will have to play an established clay player right away. I’m worried Lleyton won’t be able to keep his game solid throughout the match or have enough aggressiveness to push through Andujar as Pablo will grind the whole match. Ultimately I can’t see a rusty Hewitt troubling Andujar and I feel he is still overrated in the sense that his price is inflated a bit by his name.
  2. Re: May 13 - May 19 Nadal (-6) to beat Federer 3.87 @ Pinnacle (6/10) It’s been a long time since we had an encounter between Rafa and Fed in final tie. I would love to see an epic match between the two, but I can’t see any other result than an easy win for Rafa. Throughout this week I thought Federer could have a shot at beating Rafa in the final, but yesterdays matches have convinced me that Rafa will win this in a very comfortable fashion. For me it was like night and day watching Nadal playing in the first rounds and the half final against Berdych. In fact, I haven’t seen Nadal playing this well in weeks. Berdych was actually playing quite well if you ask me, but Nadal had an answer for everything T-Bird tried. Rafa was much more solid and his depth in shots was a lot deeper compared to the rest of the week. Federer on the other hand was playing really well but when faced with players that put him more under pressure he started making more mistakes. It started with the Janowicz match but his weaknesses were even more exposed when he faced Benoit Paire. Both players, just starting to develop themselves for the higher rankings, just lack the quality and experience at the moment to really hurt Roger. I just don’t think Federer can play on the level required throughout the whole match to even clinch one set and if Nadal continues to play on the level he had yesterday, this could be a very quick match. The spread has so much value, I can’t resist pouncing on it.
  3. Re: May 13 - May 19 Berdych to beat Nadal 5.43 @ Pinnacle (2/10) Over 23.5 games 2.67 @ Pinnacle (6/10) I think it’s the right time to fade Rafa. He really had difficulties with Gulbis’ aggression and power. However I saw improvement in his game and thought that trend could continue against Ferrer. What I thought would result in rhythm, momentum and depth in his strokes, ended to be nothing but a mere scrap and grind to clinch the win against an uninspired Ferrer that had the gun to Nadal’s head once again, but with his Nadal-complex, he couldn’t pull the trigger. En route to the Djokovic match, Berdych didn’t have me impressed at all and because of that, I had picked him to get dismantled a break a set by Nole. For a long time I thought that result was written in stone. However, miracles do exist and Berdo resurrected himself and found some new inspiration after he had broken Djoko, while the world number 1 was serving for the match. He found a way to turn a 2-5 deficit into a 7-5 set win. He went on to stun Djokovic 6-4 in the decider to complete his miracle run. Aggressiveness, big serving, heavy groundstrokes and solidness were keys in that turn around. As soon as Djokovic lost concentration and began to lack some depth in his strokes, Berdych really stepped in the court to push Nole in the defence and get opportunities to finish points quite easily. If Nadal goes on to continue making a lot unforced errors like he has done in the past match he’ll have a tough day. Also what concerns me a lot is his lack of depth in his shots and Berdych is a guy that can feed off short balls and dominate the match, like Gulbis has shown before. If Berdych can show the same factors as I mentioned before on a constant level throughout the match he certainly has a shot to stun another top gun and I’m confident he can at least make it a real match and keep it tight. ML has great value and the over is a must take for me. Be careful with taking game spreads because we might see Berdych clinching a set and getting demolished in a decisive set if Nadal ups his game.
  4. Re: May 13 - May 19 Federer (-5.5g) to beat Janowicz. 2.73 @ Pinnacle (4/10) In tonight’s match we’ll get to see Federer continue his redeeming mission against in-form youngster Janociwz. Going to be interesting to see how Janowicz keeps his stuff together mentally. In my eyes Jano will have no chance whatsoever and will fall into making unforced errors quickly in contrast to all the winners in other matches this week. Janowicz shouldn’t have won against Gasquet and actually was very lucky that the Frenchman didn’t receive the break, in the second that was rightfully his after the umpire failed to do his job and agree with Janowicz on the wrong mark in the clay. This was a real turning point in the match and Gasquet’s passiveness got the better of him and he effectively handed the win on a silver platter. Federer on the other hand has been showing great stuff and has had the opportunity to convert his extra hours on court into match rhythm against Starace and Simon. Their ‘solid’ and passive playing styles, with no real weapons, were ideal for Fed to prepare for the more difficult match ups. One of those match-ups will be fought out tonight. Don’t get me wrong, Janowicz has been showing great stuff with good serving, big groundstrokes and soft hands with his dropshots. But despite him beating two top-10 players he hasn’t really been put to the test by someone that makes them cover the entire court. He has in fact been the dominating player in both matches and completely in his comfort zone at all times. Not something I’m saying an awful lot of times. But the clay will favour Federer in this one. He’ll have more time to react to the sheer raw power and has more tennis intelligence to set up points and frustrate Janowicz every single time, forcing him to make shots, time after time. Where Gasquet failed to expose Janowicz’ weaknesses by being passive, Federer will make the Pole feel constantly pressured. I believe Janowicz’ is not up to the task mentally. As you could see in the previous two matches, this guy is a real nut case (definitely enjoyable to see). He really wears his heart on his sleeve. But this could prove to be his downfall despite that it has powered him past two top-10 players, I feel this time, his emotions will get the better of him and he could implode. Ultimately we’ll see a Janowicz going out with all guns blazin’ and Federer looking to crack the youngster. The young-gun can keep it close for a while, but when cracked it should be all Federer after that.
  5. Re: May 13 - May 19 Nadal (-5.5g) to beat Ferrer. 2.40 @ Pinnacle (6/10) The best two ranked Spanish players meet again. After their battle in Madrid, Rafael Nadal faces David Ferrer. A quick recap of Madrid reminds us of how close Ferrer was to clinching a win on clay after eleven straight losses. Today however, I expect Ferrer to have no chance in making life difficult for Rafa. Ferrer had a good but shaky win over Verdasco and I think the withdrawal of Kohlschreiber is more of a curse than a blessing. Ferrer is still lacking rhythm and he really needs to make more minutes on court if he wants to face Rafa 100%. Sure he’s fresh now and has had time to hit the training courts, but despite that, I think he needed that Kohlschreiber match in his legs to catch some rhythm. On the other hand it’s Rafa who is looking to gain some confidence en route to his half-final with Djokovic. Nadal really looked on the brink of being knocked out yesterday and aside from his poor performance in especially the first set, I really have to praise Gulbis. Ernests is finally showing more and more of the tennis that I’ve been yearning to for years. A lot of winners from both wings, good court coverage and finally some more mental resilience. And as we know, Rafa stays Rafa and if you want to finish him, you better do it fast. There will always be a turning point in the match and for me that was half way the second set. Rafa caught some rhythm and with that caught more and more momentum. He took his shots a few feet closer to the baseline and had his strokes fall deeper in the Gulbis backcourt. I wave aside arguments of other people that insist that Rafa is tired because of this long match. I am even pleading that this long match is even better for Nadal. Confidence will be higher because he managed to bounce back from playing bad tennis and with this match he has had the chance to catch a lot more rhythm than before. This match-up against Ferrer is just perfect in my eyes in preparation for the Djokovic encounter. It hurts myself to say, but I really think this an ideal ‘training’ match under match conditions for Nadal to build his confidence and momentum. Ferrer just misses enough rhythm, depth and ‘oomph’ in his shots to win a grinding battle against Rafa today. With no weapons to hurt his rival I think -5.5 at 2.4 is a gift and I would have even taken it at 2.25 if it was offered. GL.
  6. Re: May 13 - May 19 Marcel Granollers to beat Benoit Paire. 2.71 @ Pinnacle (7/10) Over 22.5 games. 1.90 @ Pinnacle (5/10) There is a lot of value in the first match-up at Rome. Claycourter Marcel Granollers faces the flamboyant Benoit Paire. I’ve enjoyed watching the odds drift on Granollers and I feel now is the time to pounce on the price offered. 2.71 is just funny and those odds are not justified whatsoever. Granted, Paire has had a decent so far. But he has trouble beating Benneteau and then beats Del Potro quite comfortably and everyone loses their mind. Delpo’s movement was even feebler than my Ford Fiesta in quick sand. DP wasn’t at full strength and also had some back issues that interfered with his serving. On the other hand I find Granollers accomplishments more impressive to be honest. He put up a great fight yesterday against Chardy. In that match he showed solidness, great movement, good mental capabilities and timely aggression when choosing to approach the net, accompanied by good hands at the net. Also let’s not forget his great win against Murray. Although Andy was also victim of an injury, I find he showed a lot more of himself than DP did in his Paire encounter. Furthermore, I’m curios to the concentration of the Frenchman. Obviously he’ll be motivated to move on to his first ever Masters half-final. But Granollers is certainly not a big of a scalp in comparison to Del Potro. Paire manages to keep his head straight when things are going his way against bigger players, but he definitely tends to slip up against ‘smaller’ opponents. This is one of the characteristics that could prove to play in to the advantage of Granollers. Don’t forget that clay is his favourite surface and with his solidness he’ll be feeding off Paire’s mistakes and added to that also has the advantage that unlike your average claycourter he has the ability to pounce on short balls and following them up at the net. Also with the weather forecast expecting rain, conditions will be slower and again favour Granollers. At these odds, Granollers is definitely the valuebet of the day. However because Paire does have some great tennis in his body, I think he could also clinch a set today, making me add the over to back my Granollers pick up. GL.
  7. Re: May 13 - May 19 Melzer (+3.5g) to beat Anderson 2.02 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Great to see that big guy Anderson is being overrated in his encounter with Melzer. Anderson has done a good job lately on his least favourite surface. He has impressed me against both Monaco and Berdych. In contrast to those results stand the bad results in the last two tournaments. Despite the difference in form and results, I’m opposing the South-African in this one. Conditions are a lot slower in Rome in comparison with Madrid and that should favour the Austrian player. Anderson’s bombs won’t punch through as much as in Spain and that will give Melzer a lot more time to set up his shots and use his lefty forehand to get the tall guy moving around court, where he is most vulnerable. Although Anderson is the obvious favourite, I think he’s overrated in the current situation. Melzer certainly has the game and claycourt experience to make life difficult for Kevin today. I’m not sure who will win to be honest, but certainly Melzer has a lot more chances than the odds suggest.
  8. Re: May 6 - May 12 Kei Nishikori (-5.5g) to beat Andujar. 2.77 @ Pinnacle (5/10) In the encounter between Nishikori and Andujar, I can only see one clear winner. This should be a pretty straightforward win for Kei Nishikori. The Japanese no.1 for me is having his clear breakthrough this year. He’s now ready to show the world he can also play great on clay courts. With no points to defend this tournament and Rome to follow he’ll be able to gather some points and sneak up some more to the top 10. Nishikori has some good wins on his hand, beating both Melzer and Troicki in quite comfortable fashion. For me, he should win against local boy Andujar in a similar way. Pablo has everything back on track after really bad results in Casablanca and following tournaments. However in Madrid he’s had great scalps in Cilic and Isner as described in a previous pick. However he faces a totally different match-up today. Cilic and Isner are quite comparable in a way: tall, big servers, heavy groundstrokes and relatively bad movement. Andujar did great to absorb their energy and distribute balls all around court to expose the weaknesses and exploit them. Despite these great results, against Gimeno-Traver he was the sole person that exposed his own weakness. He was on a path to the loss, but Gimeno handed him the win, being forced to retire. Today, Nishikori will be the one to exploit Andujar. We’ll have a lot of long rallies where both players will be looking to grind each other out. The only difference is that Nishikori should have the upper hand in the vast majority of them. In contrast to Andujar, Kei has more angle, more depth and more punch in his ground strokes. In other words he has the edge in every rally. In a grinding battle, often the more all round and solid player will triumph and even dispose of their opponents in a comfortable fashion. That’s why someone like Ferrer can be in the top 10, even though he is quite limited in pure tennis finesse. Ultimately, I see Nishi crushing Andujar in at least one set, bringing the pick in.
  9. Re: May 6 - May 12 Berdych/Murray: Over 23.5 games 2.08 @ Pinnacle (8/10) This is going to be a good one. I really fancy Berdych to oust Murray in this match-up. However the odds on MoneyLine do not represent any value whatsoever. On the other hand, the over in this one looks really juicy and I’m happy to pounce on it with relatively high stakes. Both players have been having their struggles in the tournament. Berdych has played two power players in Janowicz and Anderson. In both matches Berdych should be quite relieved he pulled through. In his match against Janowicz, the Polish player was the one dictating the points and pushing the Czech around. However this guy is just a hit or miss player for me and obviously he couldn’t keep that level of play on a constant level. Anderson is someone from who I would expect to do manage that. Unfortunately he choked, serving for the first set twice. Murray on the other hand had his troubles as well in both rounds. He needed two tie breaks against Mayer, who had a truckload of chances to win the first set. Gilles Simon nearly created the big upset being really close as well to beating the new world ranked #2. What really stood out, was the playing style Murray used. Like we know him, quite defensively, but without any aggression whatsoever. Even Simon, who is quite the defensive pusher himself, was dictating a decent amount of rallies. At first hand, I thought this playing style would turn up to be self-destructive against Berdych who will feed from this passiveness. However I think the contrary will happen. Instead of pushing Berdych into the defensive, where he is least comfortable, Murray will let him take point in the attack, taking over momentum at the right moment, counter-punching the power strokes. The contrast in style I sketched is doomed to quite erratic turns of events. We could see Berdych dominating and in control in one set and Murray countering his way to second for example. So instead of trying to analyze myself into a Money Line on any of the two top-10 players, the over is the one pick for me which represents the most value.
  10. Re: May 6 - May 12 Kevin Anderson to beat Tomas Berdych. 3.28 @ Pinnacle (3/10) Over 22.5 games. 1.92 @ Pinnacle (8/10) In a match between two power players in the form of Kevin Anderson and Tomas Berdych, I can definitely see a match that’ll go to lengths. Anderson really had a great showing yesterday against Juan Monaco and is starting to feel the clay surface a lot better this year and is still growing. He managed to oust Monaco by really playing powerful groundstrokes and making the Argentine move every inch of the court. Against Berdych this could prove to be key as well. Especially in his own service games he can use the faster conditions to his advantage with good serves and one-two punches. Berdych obviously is quite similar in some ways with Anderson and will use much of the above to his benefit as well. Berdych did well to keep his head cool and clinch the match against tanker Janowicz. For me Berdych played at relatively the same level throughout the match and it was all about the Polish player whether he would take points and games or lose them. All his balls that found the line in the first set, found just clay in the tramlines in the sets following that. But what stood out was the incapability of Berdych to handle all that power. The South African in his match against Monaco was a lot more stable and found a good balance between power hitting and some soft touches to keep the Argentine guessing. This could prove to be a setback in Berdych’s planning in reaching the next round. In contrast with Janowicz I think Kevin can keep his game much more on a constant level and can also keep his head together in clutch moments. All in all, my main bet is the overs, which in my eyes is a must take. However I do think that Anderson will have a window in to clinching this match and if he can keep his game constant together with his mental state, he has a real shot on creating an upset. Value on the tall South-African. Verdasco to beat Tsonga 3.34 @ Pinnacle (3/10) Over 23.5 games. 2.08 @ Pinnacle (8/10) Will be very interesting to see how Verdasco shows up in this one against world #8 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. I misjudged the match terribly between Nando and Goffin, it wasn’t really clear to me how important this tournament was for the Madrileño. This was really shown in his great win over Milos Raonic. Nando went for literally every ball and in contrast to his normal ADD behavior, he was quite constant and full out concentrated throughout the match. He also moved really well and hit less unforced errors that I expected and absorbed Raonic’s power better than I expected. After his win he was really emotional crying under the warm and loud roar of the chauvinistic Madrid crowd. Today he’ll face an even bigger test in Tsonga. The Frenchman really disappointed me yesterday in his showing against Robin Haase. He was really off his game and nothing was really working for him. Biggest upsets for me were his footing and backhand. Every clay court is different and requires small adjustments in movement and even footwear. He was caught off balance on really a significant amount of points, resulting in stupid unforced errors. Forehand was quite alright but his backhand was really a disaster and I think he was 0 out of 6 with his dropshots, the latter were really a joke. Verdasco is looking quite good overall and especially with his motivation boost, his concentration should be more on par as well. His advantage in this match-up is that he should be able to turn defence into attack and put Tsonga on the back foot. With his powerful lefty forehand I’m sure his battleplan will be to put the backhand under pressure and drive him to outside court so he can follow that up with a winner on the Tsonga forehand wing. All in all this should be a very hard match for Jo and similar to the Berdych match, I’m taking a main bet on the overs and taking a punt on the under dog. Gimeno-Traver to beat Andujar. 2.40 @ Pinnacle (3/10) ​Over 22.5 games. 1.97 @ Pinnacle (6/10) This Spanish encounter between Gimeno-Traver and Andujar has overs written all over it. Both players coming off huge wins. Gimeno-Traver has had great scalps over Feliciano Lopez and especially Richard Gasquet. In both matches he served really well and played a very aggressive game. Accompany those aspects with good court coverage and you’ve got yourself a very surprising Gimeno-Traver that put great wins to his name. On the other hand Andujar has been also playing very well this week. Wins over Cilic and Isner are also results to be proud of and Pablo is definitely also a force to be reckoned with. In general very solid play off both wings. For once I’m actually not taking the H2H into too much account. Andujar has a 5-1 advantage in the H2H. But at the moment it’s all about the current situation. Gimeno has been playing really aggressive and give his confidence boost with two great wins, I think that trend should continue. Obviously Andujar is also big on confidence, but with him it’s been all about solidity and if Gimeno keeps a constant level, he could push through that. This plea on the Gimeno-Traver win looks confident, but I’m just trying to illustrate that odds on 2.40 are too big, for me this should be more close to a coinflip and so I find value in the underdog win. However my main punt in this match is definitely the over bet as I fancy both players to clinch a set in this one.
  11. Re: May 6 - May 12 Tsonga - Haase. Under 20.5 games. 2.10 @ 7/10 with Pinnacle This should be a one way street for Tsonga. The Frenchman only has a R16 to defend here and might see his chances with Djokovic eliminated out of the draw. Jo has had a decent clay campaign up till now giving Nadal a little run for his money, Rafa was simply too good for him. On the other hand Haase has been looking for any form whatsoever for months now and could hardly win a decent match. However that changed, when Dolgopolov decided to implode and play like a donkey handing over the win to Haase. The Dutchman reacted to that win like he just won the title at Kitzbühel all over again. Whilst the confidence level of Haase must be much higher than it was all year, I don’t believe he can hurt Tsonga whatsoever. The faster conditions support the Dutchman as well but speak even more in favour of the flamboyant Frenchman. In contrast to the previous match, Haase won’t be able to dominate and have momentum in the match. I expect Tsonga to be the oppressor throughout giving Haase no shot, as counterpunching is not one of his strong suits. Furthermore Tsonga dominates Haase in both wings, while Haase has a decent forehand, Tsonga has the superior one. Also, whilst Tsonga’s weaker wing for me is the backhand; Haase has no backhand to speak for. Lastly the only thing that I can imagine that screws up the line is Haase that serves perfectly, the faster conditions would let them power through. However Haase is an erratic prick and the fact that he can’t keep his head straight for longer than a set gives me confidence that even though he can keep the first set to a 7-5 like score, Tsonga has the capabilities and will certainly get a window to demolish Haase in a second.
  12. Re: May 6 - May 12 Haase is playing like **** for over a year now. I've made the mistake often in backing him in wrong situations.