Primevil Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 dawn approach 7/4 battle of marengo 5/1 telescope 5/1 10/1 bar My thoughts after today, is If Dawn Approach turns up at Epsom, the only thing that gets him beat is team tactics by the AOB horses. Unless Telescope turns out to be a superstar next week, nothing beats DA if he turns up on the day. But the 7/4 on offer will still be there on June 1st, so there is no point in ante post if you aint already backed him. He is already a mid to high 120's OR imo, that would win 9/10 Derbys in any year without improvement, and if he wins the Derby, 130+ is in his compass. I have no doubt whatsover he stays the distance, and im also confident, that the tactics from AOB will fully test him. If he turns up on June 1st he wins. Your opinions?, TY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Personally think Telescope will prove to be a bit of a weapon. You have to have some doubt about Dawn Approach staying for all his temperament gives him every chance, and there's not a huge amount else that we've seen so far this season who gives me a great deal of enthusiasm. Although Stoute's runner hasn't beaten anything out of this world so far, coming from that yard and with that pedigree anything he'd do last year seems sure to be a bit of a bonus. The Dante will tell us a lot but I'd probably take a chance on him at the moment. Always like a horse who seems almost guaranteed to get home in the big races. Doesn't look a vintage renewal potentially though (say if DA doesn't stay and Telescope doesn't impress this week). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Don't see the fuss about Telescope to be honest. He won a Class 4 maiden at Newmarket by 2 lengths when odds-on. :unsure Is purely priced up on speculation, let's see how he gets on in the Dante first. Some firms going 9/2 for the Derby is absolutely ridiculous, should be 10/1 at least. Battle Of Marengo doesn't have the turn of foot Dawn Approach has, can't see that horse winning. Ruler Of The World has to be taken seriously, was very impressive at Chester, very good turn of foot. I don't know much about Ocavango. Mars is not good enough. Magician has an outside chance... Dawn Approach hands down for me, Ruler Of The World to chase him home! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Definitely priced on speculation, of course, but he looks the type to be a top-class 3yo to me. That's what you're going on ultimately but it's hard not to see him improving for age and a stiffer test. Thought he was impressive at Newmarket but yep, only a maiden. I wouldn't be as keen in other years probably but I just don't see much other than Dawn Approach to be mad about. I know it probably means nothing but I bet not many Derby winners made their debuts over 5f. Will know so much more after this week but I'll be taking on DA I think despite being a huge fan of the horse. My problem is Telescope's price is short enough now but is going to be a fair bit shorter if he does the business in the Dante. Tricky one. I don't think he can lose the Dante and win at Epsom like Workforce either so probably not going to be able to back him really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted May 12, 2013 Author Share Posted May 12, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby MILL REEF.....1970, 5f salisbury stakes. 1971, Middle distance horse of the year, I guess there are one or two more who made their debut at 5, But DA goes into this derby with a classic already under his belt, and several G1's. Bookmakers will talk up horses to try and fill their book, He will get the distance of that there is no doubt to me. His temperment is that good, Kevin Manning will need an alarm clock with him, accross Epsom Downs on the day going to post, most will boil up, he tho will not. Distance will be second IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby He's definitely the best horse we've seen so far but I just can't take 7/4 about him staying. No matter what anyone says I just can't be convinced. Maybe I'm just looking for something at a decent price but I surely can't be the only one finding his price way too short for a horse going a whole half mile up in distance, without vast amounts of stamina in his pedigree? I suppose it says more about the rest of the field than anything else though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby He's definitely the best horse we've seen so far but I just can't take 7/4 about him staying. No matter what anyone says I just can't be convinced. Maybe I'm just looking for something at a decent price but I surely can't be the only one finding his price way too short for a horse going a whole half mile up in distance' date=' without vast amounts of stamina in his pedigree? I suppose it says more about the rest of the field than anything else though.[/quote'] You have to make your own judgement as to whether he will stay or not. My opinion is he will stay the trip all day long, last time out he was not even close to slowing down near the line. Telescope has not run over a mile yet either. I would prefer to take 7/4 about a horse that just won a Group 1 by 5 lengths over a 5/1 shot that won a Class 4 maiden over a mile. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimmy2shoes Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby He should stay, but at 7/4 am happy to watch without parting with cash, the bookmakers are standing with all the cards again, so why bother. It could turn out a worse Derby than last year, and that was bad. If your on DA anti post good luck to you. If Prince Faisal sends over the unbeaten French horse Ocovango he could be worth a bet, looks a nice colt and hasn't been asked for any real effort yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted May 13, 2013 Author Share Posted May 13, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Ocovango...For me , shouts of an in experienced horse, only beating 16 or so horses in his life over 3 runs, getting all his own way, in farsical sectionals at time, Epsom will be oh so different. Added to that a jockey who has had 1 ride in the UK in his life, and would never have come accross anything like this place. Also looking at his last race, did that race shout of a classic?, 2nd 3rd n 4th, were all too close. My thoughts Fabre would wait, and gain more experience...However the owner may insist, as he has 1 in the oaks and another in the Derby. He should be 25/1 imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Personally think Telescope will prove to be a bit of a weapon. You have to have some doubt about Dawn Approach staying for all his temperament gives him every chance, and there's not a huge amount else that we've seen so far this season who gives me a great deal of enthusiasm. Although Stoute's runner hasn't beaten anything out of this world so far, coming from that yard and with that pedigree anything he'd do last year seems sure to be a bit of a bonus. The Dante will tell us a lot but I'd probably take a chance on him at the moment. Always like a horse who seems almost guaranteed to get home in the big races. Doesn't look a vintage renewal potentially though (say if DA doesn't stay and Telescope doesn't impress this week). Interesting you have selected Telescope. Agree with Aidymac. I'm interested in how some members select their horses.How did you come to find this Derby selection? It has only won a mile maiden. You also highlighted that with that pedigree anything he did last year was a bonus? What exactly do you mean? The dam is Veloutte which to be honest I don't really know about but the sire is Galileo which we all know. Is your comment based on knowledge of the dam? I find your selection interesting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby I prefer to wait till after the Dante before starting to formulate my Derby bets, it's been my policy since my disastrous bet on Tenby many years ago. At the moment the only horse for serious consideration is DA, 7/4 may be a big price considering Camelot was around 1/2 days before the Derby. There will most likely be some visually impressive winners in the forthcoming Derby trails, will they be good enough to shift DA's position in the market? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted May 13, 2013 Author Share Posted May 13, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby only 5 winners in the last 30 years have been double figure prices. with almost 50% of winners being 1st or 2nd fav, in the same period. Camelot, Authorised, Nashwan, Reference Point, Slip Anchor, Shergar....were all shorter leading up to winning their Derbys. Dawn Approach is already in this bracket if not better than a couple, its clear to me none of the others are. At 7/4 - 15/8 he is well worth this price tag. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toast Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby I would be keen to take on Dawn Approach. Been the most impressive trial winner upto now. But I'm not convinced about his stamina. On the dam side, she raced no further than 7f and is by a miler, though, confidence is boosted by his sire. Plus, ims, Jim Bolger stated he's a 10f horse at the most. This weeks Dante, now becomes very important. O Brien looks to have a strong contender( forgot name) . Won the 3 trials last week very easily and IMO, tends to send 1 of his lesser lights over to York to gauge the quality of the British opposition, in what is widely regarded as the most important British trial. Indian Chief already has a run under his belt which he won and the 2nd has since come out and won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby As Primeval says DA lining up for the Derby has to be taken on trust given Jim Bolger's antics with DA's sire ( a common trait with top trainers recently ), better to take a slightly shorter price when NRNB is available. Also with AP O'BRIEN being mob handed again, it may be better to leave his horses till the line up is more clear and jockey bookings are announced. His horses which may appear not to get the Epsom Derby trip may be diverted to the French Derby which may be more attractive now that they have recently made the race 2 furlongs shorter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted May 13, 2013 Author Share Posted May 13, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby As Primeval says DA lining up for the Derby has to be taken on trust given Jim Bolger's antics with DA's sire ( a common trait with top trainers recently ), better to take a slightly shorter price when NRNB is available. Also with AP O'BRIEN being mob handed again, it may be better to leave his horses till the line up is more clear and jockey bookings are announced. His horses which may appear not to get the Epsom Derby trip may be diverted to the French Derby which may be more attractive now that they have recently made the race 2 furlongs shorter. Yeah 100% with regards to AOB horses, 2-3 pacemakers to make it a end to end gallop, is not out the question, and there may be value in the pacemakers. I doubt JB will play around with the Sheik, given the bad press recentley. They have said he will go there, and I believe that, unless an injury happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Interesting you have selected Telescope. Agree with Aidymac. I'm interested in how some members select their horses.How did you come to find this Derby selection? It has only won a mile maiden. You also highlighted that with that pedigree anything he did last year was a bonus? What exactly do you mean? The dam is Veloutte which to be honest I don't really know about but the sire is Galileo which we all know. Is your comment based on knowledge of the dam? I find your selection interesting. Just all about potential really. I like to think I can spot a potentially very good horse early on in their careers and I was impressed by Telescope in two starts last year. I think he'll improve considerably because Stoute's tend to progress from 2 and his pedigree has plenty of stamina in it so going up to middle distances at 3 should also see him a fair bit better than at 2. He's also a big horse who should have strengthened up over the winter. He probably wins at Ascot on debut if Mullen doesn't drop his stick despite them going quite slowly there and was pretty smart at Newmarket when travelling and then striding out from the front without Hughes having to do much. Of course they're only maidens but the very best horses have to start somewhere and I've liked what I've seen. I might not be so keen if I liked anything that I've seen race this season and I may be proved to be stupid if he bombs in the Dante but he looks a Derby type to me. As I said, though, his price has no juice in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stakes n chips Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Yeah 100% with regards to AOB horses' date=' 2-3 pacemakers to make it a end to end gallop, is not out the question, [b']and there may be value in the pacemakers. From a betting proposition thats the angle im keen on. I was impressed by the run of Leading Light lto - front running ride and then his boost button was tested about 1.5-2 furlong from home (10f race i think it was?). Worth watching if you missed it i think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby I had 12's about Carlton House for the Derby after seeing him run in 2 maiden races. Stoute training the horse influenced me and there was some concern over his ability to get 12f but I knew if he won the Dante (10f looked perfect) he'd be much shorter. He went 9-4 for the Derby and was 5-2 on the day but I let it run and didn't lay it off. I've got a similar situation this year with Dawn Approach, on for the Derby at 16-1 and also got a double at 28-1 for the Guineas and Derby. I won't be losing loads if he doesn't win so I'm thinking to just let it run and possibly back Telescope before the Dante or one of the O'Brien runners to go into the Derby with a few alternatives should Dawn Approach not get home over 12f. Would others lay it off (stakes are only 10pts each bet) or just let it run? I've also got doubles with Kingsbarns but accept that they are gone and a single on Mars at 12's. The Fabre horse interests me, same kind of approach to the race as Pour Moi. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Primevil Posted May 13, 2013 Author Share Posted May 13, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby I had 12's about Carlton House for the Derby after seeing him run in 2 maiden races. Stoute training the horse influenced me and there was some concern over his ability to get 12f but I knew if he won the Dante (10f looked perfect) he'd be much shorter. He went 9-4 for the Derby and was 5-2 on the day but I let it run and didn't lay it off. I've got a similar situation this year with Dawn Approach' date=' on for the Derby at 16-1 and also got a double at 28-1 for the Guineas and Derby. I won't be losing loads if he doesn't win so I'm thinking to just let it run and possibly back Telescope before the Dante or one of the O'Brien runners to go into the Derby with a few alternatives should Dawn Approach not get home over 12f. Would others lay it off (stakes are only 10pts each bet) or just let it run? I've also got doubles with Kingsbarns but accept that they are gone and a single on Mars at 12's. The Fabre horse interests me, same kind of approach to the race as Pour Moi.[/quote'] If i was in your position, I would trade out my stakes...to cover all my Ante post, thus far, and enjoy the race. If he wins your still plenty in. Just how i would go, however I believe, he will win.:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blazing Bailey Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Personally I think you have an excellent chance of doing the double Mowgli. Any horse that beats DA is going to have to be bloody good and on my ratings the only horses that are potentially within 10lb of him are Kingsbarns, Toronado and Van Der Neer. Considering the first and second are very unlikely to even turn up and the 3rd has to find 7 1/2 lengths I think you are sitting on a pot of money. However if I was in your position, then knowing my cautious nature I would have probably laid most of it off already! Its always different when its someone else's money! :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby [ATTACH]4799[/ATTACH] A Dawn Approach win would be nice but I've probably lost a few quid already on the doubles with Kingsbarns, doesn't seem like he will turn up at Epsom unless O'Brien has played a blinder and sends him there without a prep run. I think I placed the right bet with Dawn Approach/Kingsbarns but got unlucky with injury. I'm not a huge fan of laying off bets unless there are large stakes involved but then I should also look at potential returns rather than just what I've staked and that's what I don't usually do. :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Looks like Telescope is out of the Dante anyway now so we'll probably never know... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Apparently they're hoping to consider a racecourse gallop as a prep to the Derby. They obviously think he's a bit good to even think he can go straight from a September maiden to the Derby (still can't see them doing it) but it's time for me to look elsewhere. Pain in the arse for the ten to follow but oh well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Boylesports going 4/1 with a run for the Derby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erhaab1965 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Apparently they're hoping to consider a racecourse gallop as a prep to the Derby. They obviously think he's a bit good to even think he can go straight from a September maiden to the Derby (still can't see them doing it) but it's time for me to look elsewhere. Pain in the arse for the ten to follow but oh well. 4/1 absolutely ridiculous, itshould only be that price if it won the Dante in convincing fashion. As for going straight for the Derby, Lammtarra won it a few years back for Godolphin on its seasonal debut at double figure odds having previous just winning a single race as a 2YO for the promising Alex Scott. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bathtime For Rupert Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby 4/1 absolutely ridiculous, itshould only be that price if it won the Dante in convincing fashion. As for going straight for the Derby, Lammtarra won it a few years back for Godolphin on its seasonal debut at double figure odds having previous just winning a single race as a 2YO for the promising Alex Scott. I might be willing to chance him at a double figure price but he's no bigger despite missing his prep! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Absolutely bloody bonkers! With not running in the Dante, he should be 20/1! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mowgli77 Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Looks like Telescope is out of the Dante anyway now so we'll probably never know... I wonder if this is due to Highclere not wanting to run 2 of their horses against each other. They had tried to avoid it happening by sending Greatwood to Lingfield and Telescope to York. Seems convenient that Telescope just happens to have got a bump while going into a horse box. If that one was already fitter and more forward than Greatwood it could have influenced that decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
egg Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Telescope out of Dante. lol just noticed its already been posted:$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robertob Posted May 15, 2013 Share Posted May 15, 2013 Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Dawn Approach looks the real deal and his laid back attitude will give him every chance to stay the distance. He's proven class therefore I would agree with saying it's hard to look past him in terms of winning the Derby. I'm pretty happy to read that Germany has a runner in the Derby this year. It's the Wöhler trained Chopin. He's lightly raced, and won on his third start and seasonal reappearance a Group 3 in Germany some weeks ago. I thought he looked really smart that day, so happy that connections aiming for the big target. The race was probably a weak G3, no doubt, but over 9f, probably short of his best trip, he really kicked away in impressive fashion in the final 200m when stamina kicked in. He doesn't look particularly sexy on pedigree, by a first season sire, who was a really good miler (but also got 10f), there is plenty of stamina on the dam side though, even though it's quite a mediocre Galileo mare. There should be more to come from Chopin if he's stepping up in trip, for sure, and the vibes are positive. If that's enough to be competitive in a Derby, well we've to see, but with prices around 20/1 I rather like him as an e/w candidate. telegraph.co.uk: German colt Chopin given all-clear to run in Investec Derby after training gallop with Jamie Spencer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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