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2013 Epsom Derby


Primevil
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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby 7/4 DAWN APPROACH LADBROKES FROM 8:15AM 6/4 HILLS FROM 8:30AM Up to £50 in ladbrokes shops only Not sure of the deal on WH its an ARBERS dream.....He will go off evens, IMO, Fill your boots, Plus for me he will win...(as ive said before), easily...I have no doubt.

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby 4:00 Epsom: Festive Cheer 1pt win 179/1* Betfair & Galileo Rock 1pt e/w 66/1* William Hill (1/4 123) Have gone for a couple of lightly raced types that look overpriced. Festive Cheer got off the mark at Dundalk and for an all weather maiden that race has worked out pretty well. Festive Cheer then stayed on strongly once the penny dropped in France last time behind Tableaux. This trip should be perfect and he being only his fourth run there could be a fair bit more to come. Galileo Rock has some form that ties in with Battle of Marengo. Galileo Rock almost caught Sugar Boy at Sandown and Sugar Boy was not far behind Battle of Marengo previously. Galileo Rock looks sure to improve over this trip and will surely be staying on at the finish when others have had enough. (*Prices taken when posted in personal thread #1747 & #1763)

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby For anyone not aware, some of the big firms have various offers today, Money back if your horse finishes 2nd in any ch4 race....money back if Dawn Approach wins the Derby,,plus several others around the place, On a day like today, it pays to shop around, there are plenty of offers around the place for new and existing customers.....GL PS THE SAINT, need not apply....:rollin Sorry m8, could not resist it, I know your pulling teeth at the moment, how's the disguises going?, but hey! keep it going, grind the barstewards into the ground. Good Luck to Everyone today....and for the last time....COME ON DAWN!

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Funny Fcuker!!! Ha ha! Route planned, rucksack packed with various tops and a razor/shaving foam!! @ least it's sunny and I can get the roof down!!:p Best of Luck with DA & I hope u r batting at 1600!! :lol Hit own wicket??!

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby another poor show by the top english trainers, no bin suroor, no hannon, no stoute, no johnston, no fahey, we are represented by 2 tate & mrs Burke! Shocking isnt it and just shows the state of our racing. How can stoute not have a decent 3yo to run here. Ok Telescope was due but rated below 100 didnt have a chance really. Same thing happened last year when Camelot won a weak derby. Is this year any different?

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*MASSIVE WORD OF WARNING..... In this thread and earlier on in the week, Ladcrooks were claiming they would refund losing bets on the Derby if Dawn Approach won. THIS has now changed to online and mobile only which frankly is about as much use as a chocolate Tea Pot to me. I just hope that they honour the bets placed in the week if DA wins.... Otherwise I'd have had the bet (as would many of my friends ;) ) elsewhere at much better prices - like the exchanges for example. Dan - can u offer a defence or clarify what's happened here please??

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Cant help thinking that the emotion of the event takes over in instances like this, if this was a normal 3yo race and not the Derby many would swerve it in an instance and look for better bets in the other 59 races taking place in Britain and Ireland today. 12 runners with only one course winner, one distance winner, a short priced fav that is not certain to stay and a trainer who saddles five runners and even he dont know which one is the best from what i can see, and on a track thats quirky as hell? Its madness. If i had to have a bet i'd go with the horse who has done it over the trip and has the best jockey on top, Ruler Of The World EW. Good luck to those who have invested heavily:ok

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby

Cant help thinking that the emotion of the event takes over in instances like this, if this was a normal 3yo race and not the Derby many would swerve it in an instance and look for better bets in the other 59 races taking place in Britain and Ireland today. 12 runners with only one course winner, one distance winner, a short priced fav that is not certain to stay and a trainer who saddles five runners and even he dont know which one is the best from what i can see, and on a track thats quirky as hell? Its madness. If i had to have a bet i'd go with the horse who has done it over the trip and has the best jockey on top, Ruler Of The World EW. Good luck to those who have invested heavily:ok
Agree but everyone wants the prestige of having a big race winner I guess. It was no different when BBOTD after BBOTD were placed on the National :lol
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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Chopin all the way for me, as stated a couple of weeks ago in this thread. Backed him @ 20/1 ante-post and obviously hope for a big run, not only from a betting point of view but also from a patriotic point of view of course. So exciting for German racing to have a runner in the race - a runner who has a real chance of running a mighty race. I have no worries that he'll stay the trip actually. And he looked really smart when he won a Group 3 in Germany a couple of weeks ago, beating Global Bang easily by 9 lengths. This Global Bang finished 2nd in the German 2.000 Guineas subsequently. Even if that was rather a sub-standard Group 2, it's still a G2 and to beat a subsequent G2 2nd easily by 9 lengths over a distance short of the best trip, shows how smart this Chopin could be. I think that if Dawn Approach fails to deliver for whatever reason that Chopin will be right there.

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby 4.00 Epsom - 1pt e/w Chopin @ 12/1 (Bet365) It's always difficult to assess foreign raiders but in a Derby which looks weak on the surface I think there's an angle into the contest from overseas and it's hard not to have been impressed with the German challenger when winning the last twice. Dawn Approach might have the speed to burn them off to make the distance irrelevant but I don't see 1m4f being his optimum trip and is at least worth taking on because he's not absolutely guaranteed to stay in my opinion. Prepared to be wrong and I do think he's got a fine chance but whilst there's doubt I can't take a short price on him. Chopin absolutely hacked up on his second start last season and returned with a very impressive victory in a Group 3 last time out. He was 8l clear at the line but appeared to have stacks left in him and will relish the further step up in trip today you'd fancy on that evidence and on pedigree. The runner-up there finished in the same position (albeit much closer) in the German 2000 Guineas so the form has substance to it and although it's not always easy to establish formlines abroad there were some English raiders in that field. The 109 rated Tawhid of Godolphin was 3rd (easy Group 3 winner here last year) and a useful looking 3yo of Marco Botti's was 12l and bits behind the winner (won a Kempton maiden by 6l). Combining that form with Chopin's easy success suggests he's a bit of a tool if you read the form literally and he looks a proper contender. Is third highest in on official ratings (and I think 115 underestimates him) so if he handles the track I think he'll run a very good race and will take him each-way to make the frame should Dawn Approach prove himself.

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Noticed a few years ago that most derby winners had the word quickened mentioned in at least 1 of their earlier career runs, so on that basis alone, the field is whittled down to just 4. Battle of Marengo, Dawn Approach, Festive Cheer and Galileo Rock. Normally, when o Brien goes mob handed into a race, he's throwing arrers hoping to hit the bull, when he goes 1 or 2, then take notice. Today he throws 5. Taking the Dante to be the main English trial, then he must rate his beaten horse in that race as his top derby horse, which at face value, doesn't say too much about his other trial winners. Now for the fav. As good as he looked in the guineas, there is nothing in his female dosage that says he will stay, and the time boys are not exactly raving over his 2000g win and neither is the form of the race. Every horse to race since has flopped. Which brings us down to Galileo Rock just by process of elimination, though in his favour will be the trip, as both sire and dam scream stamina, and he did finish in front of the Dante winner at Sandown, who is laughably, half his price. Chopin could be interesting, but not enough is known about him to warrant a bet at the current odds and he's missing his 2 stable jockeys in favour of Spencer. Okavango looks promising, but the jockeys lack of experience outside France and coming from trap 1 are the only negatives. Galileo Rock. 33/1 ew In what is a disappointing race, and could possibly be another poor batch of 3yos.

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby At the prices, Battle Of Marengo is the clear value in my opinion. Gets 1m 2f very easily, so bound to get the trip... Looks a good each-way bet. I have decided not to back anything in the race though, as Dawn Approach is too short and looks very hard to beat. I do think Dawn Approach and Battle Of Marengo will be 1st and 2nd though, you can't rule out Chopin or Ruler Of The World either. Very excited.

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Is nobody else worried about timing of the trials to the big race this year? Seems quite short this season. Fillies apart, whom are a law to themselves, the colts who won the 2000g trials, ran disappointingly at Newmarket, IMO, due to the short time between races and noticeably Van Der Neer at the curragh. Just a thought.

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby

i struggle to think of a race where things have gone exactly opposite to the plan than that for dawn approach. they may as well have pulled it up, couldnt win after a furlong of the race. Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2
What was amazing (in my humble opinion) was Simon Holt's call and the in-running price. Fair play to the man, he called it as it was first time round and despite this, DA was still under 4.5 for the first half of the race and almost 3.0 on the turn!! I don't think I would have been so decisive and brave in the call and the in-running players should have been listening!! I was so perplexed by the price, I considered that I must have been watching well behind the actual time and one of the kids must have pressed pause on Sky at some point beforehand.... Anyway - that utter disbelief led to me not laying in the run at all. C'est La Vie - hope some of you backed the winner.
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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby

Cant help thinking that the emotion of the event takes over in instances like this, if this was a normal 3yo race and not the Derby many would swerve it in an instance and look for better bets in the other 59 races taking place in Britain and Ireland today. 12 runners with only one course winner, one distance winner, a short priced fav that is not certain to stay and a trainer who saddles five runners and even he dont know which one is the best from what i can see, and on a track thats quirky as hell? Its madness. If i had to have a bet i'd go with the horse who has done it over the trip and has the best jockey on top, Ruler Of The World EW. Good luck to those who have invested heavily:ok
You where spot on sir:clap wise words indeed.
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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby

OK - missed the race and see that the jolly was a tailed off last Surely the bookies didn't know this would happen when they were throwing the refund offers around :p
You never missed much, bunch of aristocrats in top hats drinking pimm's missed it too.
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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby

Cant help thinking that the emotion of the event takes over in instances like this, if this was a normal 3yo race and not the Derby many would swerve it in an instance and look for better bets in the other 59 races taking place in Britain and Ireland today. 12 runners with only one course winner, one distance winner, a short priced fav that is not certain to stay and a trainer who saddles five runners and even he dont know which one is the best from what i can see, and on a track thats quirky as hell? Its madness. If i had to have a bet i'd go with the horse who has done it over the trip and has the best jockey on top, Ruler Of The World EW. Good luck to those who have invested heavily:ok
I dont really understand it either. I mean, if you do really well in group races, top class stuff and back your opinion in this sort of stuff, then fair enough. I wouldnt have a bet just for the sake of it, I never lay any money down on races like the Derby, National, Gold Cup etc
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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Dawn Approach should go back to a mile and the St James's Palace at Ascot. The winner will surely follow up at the curragh as he stayed on well. A bad call by me on the favourite but these things happen sometimes and we'll bounce back!!

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby I watched the race on the big screen at Donny and both me and Whoneedsrio thought the bit had slipped through the mouth of Dawn Approach. You could see early on that he was pulling all over the place, either unhappy, injured or something wrong somehow. Kevin Manning said he jumped out ok for about 10 strides and then was never happy but the horse pulled himself to the front and it looked like poor Manning had no control at all, like a race driver without steering. I still don't feel we found out if he would stay 12f with what happened. A seriously disappointing effort due to the circumstances from the favourite but absolutely fantastic to see Libertarian finish like he did to grab 2nd and surely a great chance in the St Leger as he was doing all his best work at the end of the race once he had got balanced. It will be interesting to see how the form of this Derby works out over the season.

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby

A bad call by me on the favourite but these things happen sometimes and we'll bounce back!!

Respect Joe, a punter admitting he got it wrong, a refreshing change! No doubt Jimmy thinks Manning layed the fav?
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