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2013 Epsom Derby


Primevil

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby

It's not the race, that we have or will have a low turnout. As I said to have a 130 horse, will scare most. Did we have a piss poor QUEEN MOTHER or did we have a superstar? Just sit back and watch a great horse in action.
What with the superstar jolly at 10/11 that's all the man/woman on the street can do fella. The Queen Mother was a slightly different kettle of fish in my eyes, fences had to be jumped too. If your have good money down for the Derby i wish you the very best of luck M8.
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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby

Ok, here is the video of Benny The Dip winning the derby. How on earth can anyone say he didnt not stay the trip? They were miles clear of third horse :lol

Thanks for the video Aidymac, brought back memories of the only time I very nearly got the Derby / Oaks double up, had Reams of Verse and Silver Patriarch who narrowly missed. Had it won I'd have traded my Rover216 for a Mercedes C180. Benny the Drip was the 90s equivalent to Sir Percy a couple of years back. Anyway back to the thread. I haven't had a bet yet but I think DA is a worthy favourite but having missed the odds against I may have to give it a miss for only the second time in my disastrous betting career. I gave it a miss last year, through not having full confidence in the jockey although this year there's nothing wrong with the jockey. I'll either wait till it drifts or I'll possibly consider the A Fabre horse EW.
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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby

What with the superstar jolly at 10/11 that's all the man/woman on the street can do fella. The Queen Mother was a slightly different kettle of fish in my eyes, fences had to be jumped too. If your have good money down for the Derby i wish you the very best of luck M8.
If he goes on to win....We will have another superstar, 5f -12f unbeaten. Two classics in there. even the great MILL REEF Could not do that. History books updated, and possibly. Regardless of the price, he will be approaching SEA THE STARS in my book. If he wins the international then ARC he will be in the same boat.
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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby

I was impressed with Magician this weekend and he looks the perfect type for Epsom as he moves so well. I think the rest have too much to find unless DA doesnt stay.
Inclined to agree. If 5/1 with a run was available I'd be very tempted. As you say, just love how this horse moves.... Not backing at 6s without though. 9.4 available on Betfair with nothing lined up to back it... Don't get me wrong, DA is the most likely winner but feel this one would provide a massive test....
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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby LIBERTERIAN IMO would be the form angle, DA still wins easily, and BOM and Magician will be fighting out the places. Magician is a very good horse, however Two G1's in a week, and having to improve another 10lb IMO, highly unlikely.

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Come on Prime, i think we all knew there was a very good chance he would not run and go to Ascot instead. Not seen the news but its not really a surprise is it? Maybe i'm wrong. Anybody who backed him without the Nr no bet has not been 'fecked' in my opinion.

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby BH i totally respect what you say, but we do have to remember that there will be thousands of people out there who have lost thousands of pounds without getting a run. I did not see a comment last weekend after he was put in at 6/1...From the yard of "yes he is still in, but highley unlikely to run", And to top that the only bookmaker who was touting the with a run...was PADDY POWER, all others on Oddschecker had him in the list, mostly at the same price, even so which is an absolute disgrace, many of the patrons on here still had him in the list hours after the news... And lets give a big thumbs up to 888 sport who still have him in at 5/1. He is in all the exchange markets, but at ridiculous prices. So forgive me BH to alerting on this thread the Definate news, not Maybe news. And if that saved £10 going in the bookies pocket for their slow rolling, Im ok with that.

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby 12 go to post and I still can't find an angle with Magician out.... Maybe someone will chuck out 6/5 Dawn Approach on the day which would do but ultimatly that's gonna be hard to get on and that's not gonna make any long term difference to the season.... Maybe Festive Cheer is overpriced @ 50/1 and possibly bigger come the day. Missed a Group 2 last time out by 2 short heads and ran as if he'll appreciate the extra distance and more @ Epsom. Not overpriced enough though... As things stand though, I think the odds are pretty much there because Dawn Approach is taking out so much of the market and is a worthy fav - 1.96 in my booK!

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby So what do bookies do Primevil? Just because he was unlikely to run, put him up as 33/1 for the Derby? Then could show up and piss it? That's the beauty of antepost. If the horse was unlikely to run, more fools the people that backed it. Bookmaking is a business, not a charity. If you don't do the necessary research and bet blind, you get what you deserve.

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Nail on the head Aidy but you're both right - they want to take bets from fools and not people who do their research - and they don't. Have to say, given the stance Ladbrokes took on Ruler Of The World after his Chester trial, I'm very surprised to see that one go to post - personally, I don't think it can win but even so - it's not often Ladbrokes have the wrong info concerning the AOB runners.

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Like Saint I still dont have an angle as I have a few runners that I rate very similar and Im not even convinced DA will stay. Class can only do so much and if he doesnt stay he doesnt win. I watched a few replays of the other runners and Ocovango looks a classy type who I think will enjoy the contours. His times havent been great which is a worry but Fabre is confident and he will be up with the pace which is a bonus. The AOB runners dont inspire me tbh, I cant see Libertarian handling the track. Chopin is the unknown. He didnt look like much for the first half of his last win but the way he powered clear was impressive. If he is close and can release that burst he has a big chance especially as he will relish the trip.

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby i think Festive Cheer is well overpriced at 50/1 (laddies, bet365) He's one of O'Briens but ran his trial in france finishing 3rd in a head bob finish in the group 2 Hocquart One of the others in the head bob had won the group 2 Noailles, the other main french Derby trial The third horse involved in the head bob had previously finished 2nd to Ocovango, beaten just over a length. Ocovango subsequently won the group 2 Grefuhle That looks like really solid Derby trial form and puts Festive Cheer about a length or so behind Ocovango who's currently best price 15/2.

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby

I would be seriousley worried about the Jockey on OCOVANGO...He could do more harm than good.
Maybe but he is no mug and I would rather have him on my horse than some of the others. It shouldnt be that tactical for him either because the horse will be up with the pace. If he had to come from behind then I would agree... However looking at the draw, he will probably now get swamped and shuffled back unless he gets the perfect break.
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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby As the great Lester once said, every horse comes down the hill first time....Only a few jockeys cope with the hill first time in a Derby, you need the balance of an acrobat, and Derbys are won and lost in the first half mile. The draw is a nightmare for OCOVANGO, he will have to go like a 5 furlong sprinter in the first two furlongs, to get a position, and a pacemaker next door.

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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby

i think Festive Cheer is well overpriced at 50/1 (laddies, bet365) He's one of O'Briens but ran his trial in france finishing 3rd in a head bob finish in the group 2 Hocquart One of the others in the head bob had won the group 2 Noailles, the other main french Derby trial The third horse involved in the head bob had previously finished 2nd to Ocovango, beaten just over a length. Ocovango subsequently won the group 2 Grefuhle That looks like really solid Derby trial form and puts Festive Cheer about a length or so behind Ocovango who's currently best price 15/2.
ive also rated this race ...dawn approach is best priced 5/4 and rated 95 on the clock .............could be anything yes but price way too short considering new territory ...........ocavango is obviously the best of the middle distance horses to have run so far coming in around 93 over 10f so at 7/1 looks a very good value bet e.w but as trotter suggested the value of the race has to lie with FESTIVE CHEER around 25/1 + ........comeback run looks very good ...comes in around 87 on the clock and was staying on strong at the end ........potentially a big improver running for o brien ........time was over 11f and way stayed on suggests 12f may even be more preferable .....................far far too big a price ...................im on for 10pts e.w at 50/1 ..........and as youi can rule out 3 horses with more or less no chance ........that leaves 9 potential runners and a 50/1 pricetag .......go to be good .......outstanding value
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Re: 2013 Epsom Derby Preview from my website Epsom Derby Saturday 1st June – Preview The Stats Looking at the last 14 years performance, price is key as the largest price over the 14 years was 7/1 however only 5 favs have won (2 were Jt fav). The irish win again last year ago made it 3 in 5 years after the prize was dominated by the English trainers. French trained winner in 2011 shows this remains a global prize. All 14 winners had had either 1 or 2 runs that season & all but 4 had won LTO. Career runs were between a total of 3 & 7 although 11 of the 14 had between 3 & 5 runs. However 2012 winner Pour Moi & 2010 winner Workforce had only ran twice before which is uncommon. Looking at the trial's, 8 of the winners won a recognised Derby trial, 3 Dante winners, 2 Chester Dee stakes winners & 3 Leopardstown Derby trial winners, so we must really look at those races in depth. 2009 winner Sea The stars turned out to be one of the best ever and he came from winning the 2000 Guineas as did Camelot last year, both had the staying pedigree though required for this race. In 2010, Workforce bucked the poor trend of Dante placed horses to win. Looking at the breeding Stamina on the sire side is not essential as 4 of the 14 were bred by sires who stayed less than 10f. The others are recognised Derby pedigrees (Gallileo, Montjeu, Sadlers Wells). The Key Trials Dante Stakes York Ended as a strange trial with 33/1 Libertarian winning for Mrs K Burke. However is bred by a recent Derby winner New Approach, so stamina guaranteed and does meet the other stats. Trading Leather 2nd in the race, won a Group 3 at Newmarket least season and has had 5 runs now for trainer Bolger. . Derby Trial – Leopardstown Battle of Marengo won this race for Aidan O’Brien and remains to be seen what it beat. Bred by Galileo, has now won 5 out 6 races. Dee Stakes – Chester Magician won the Dee stakes for O’brien and the horse really handled the track and the softer going that day. Impressive turn of foot in the end. 2nd that day Contributer isn’t entered. Lingfield Derby trial Won by Nevis, another from O’brien, Possibly needs it soft to feature here. 2000 Guineas Dawn Approach won this easily this year and the 7/4 price tag is now down to evens as most pundits believe this one can go onto better things and prove a worthy winner. Of the 3 trials, the Dante stakes at York had proved to be the best pointer in recent years with 2004, 2005 & 2007 winner coming from this race, it remains a true test. However, 2000 Guineas winner Dawn Approach may well be too good for these having romped the race this year and breeding on the sire side is ok but not on the Dam side. I think though this could be a serious horse in a weak Derby. The main players Dawn Approach Has won all 7 of his races including the Dewhurst and 2000 Guineas. The last 3 wins all being Group 1 level. Won the 2000 Guineas easily this year. Should stay and the only unknown is handling the track. Battle of Marengo Has won 5 from 6 and a decent trial in ireland. O’Brien would be seeking at least a top 4 finish. Ruler of the world Won the Chester Vase in May, Quickened clear that day, remains to be seen which of the O’Brien horses is favoured. The others The trends show that horses have to have finished 1st or 2nd on last outing, so of the others, i would only be interested in Libertarian, Ocovango. An interesting trend is that the last 11 winners have made thier debut at a Group 1 track, this rules out Libertarian from those i have named above. Current betting Dawn Approach Evs Battle of Marengo 5/1 Ocovango 8/1 Ruler of the World 10/1 12/1 Bar Thanks for the continued support

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