manckevin Posted April 8, 2005 Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Turnium out, my trend fancy Native Emperor now runs :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swampster Posted April 8, 2005 Author Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post yeah 50/1, worth a small each-way, has been talked about in the papers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete2304 Posted April 8, 2005 Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Take it Longshanks has no chance of running after running today and will be withdrawn all together? Bit of a shiter considerin it was my main tip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swampster Posted April 8, 2005 Author Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post yeah mine too - they raced him today - think that kind of scuppers any chance of him being considered tomorrow, regardless of any more withdrawals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete2304 Posted April 8, 2005 Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post HI, Anyone know anything bout Take the stand? Read couple of tips for it but undecided Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted April 8, 2005 Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Carrying too much weight pete Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drawback05 Posted April 8, 2005 Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post HI, Anyone know anything bout Take the stand? Read couple of tips for it but undecidedHe got a good write-up on Sporting Life so I wouldn't put you off. Every horse is carrying the correct weight so the only way that weight would come into it is if there was loads of rain and the guys at the top were struggling to carry 11 and a half stone through very soft ground. I never saw the Red Marauder race in 2001 but apparently it was horrendous then. Check the going first tomorrow, today was good to soft so more rain might not help the top weights. I think I'll back Colonel Rayburn who likes soft and then something at a big price that hasn't fallen (if such a thing exists) I'm not backing Forest Gunner even though he's won twice over the fences, so there's one for everyone else then !! Although not agreeing with Ginger McCain calling the jockey, Carrie Ford, a brood mare, I just fancy that this race might be a step too far for her. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted April 8, 2005 Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Every horse is carrying the correct weight so the only way that weight would come into it is if there was loads of rain and the guys at the top were struggling to carry 11 and a half stone through very soft ground. What do you mean by this? Horses carrying large weights don't win the national - carrying over 11st over big fences for 4 1/2m is too much effort. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 8, 2005 Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post very difficult to advise anyone to back a horse for this race, the problem you have is that you need luck in running as horses can fall right in front of you & you cannot avoid them. I like to see the jockey has got the horse handily place on the outside of the track in the first 8 or 9 all the way round. This is where the winner normally comes from. My bets for the race include Royal Auclair to win @ 25/1 & place at 10.5 on Betfair (age, ground (:hope ) in favour, but a lot of weight) Jakari to win @ 40/1 (age,weight, ground & jockey all in favour) Europa to place @ 40.0 on betfair & to win @ 310.0 on Betfair (age, weight & ground in favour). Good luck to all, should be a great race & let's hope they come home safe & sound. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chala Posted April 8, 2005 Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post After reading some great analysis, I've decided to go with AK and back Strong Resolve. Now bring on the rain!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wire Posted April 8, 2005 Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post :welcome im just goin 2 give the winer ROYAL AUCLAIR Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 8, 2005 Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Why's that wire? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted April 8, 2005 Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Hasn't got a chance with 11-10st Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
therandompunter Posted April 8, 2005 Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post I've heard a couple of people tipping Innox... But he doesn't seem to make any of your shortlists. Is he overweight? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manckevin Posted April 9, 2005 Share Posted April 9, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post My personal notes for INNOX read as follows: French bred and hasn’t seen a racecourse for longer than ideal since winning at Sandown. Has run before at up to 3m5f but never here although the ground does appeal. Personally unfavoured but not without a chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kompressaur Posted April 9, 2005 Share Posted April 9, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Im with Ak and Danny and having some Lord Atterbury after encouraging words from a fella i know that knows his stuff. I used to study the national from about 9 months before. now its the morning of:o Like the credentials of Hedgehopper. Whats the chances of the 4/1(hills) on a horse leading at the Elbow being beat? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scouse Posted April 9, 2005 Share Posted April 9, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post clan royal for me i know he's not run for 115 days and jonjo's stable not at it's best but this horse has been well prepaired for this. very unlucky last year and lost a lot of ground before the elbow due to the whip loss. will not happen today if he's in the same position with the best on baord A P McCOY. skinny odds for a race like this but the national has become more of a class race these days so i say to you all, :nana get on :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drawback05 Posted April 9, 2005 Share Posted April 9, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Komp, since you were up at 05:10 (??) I'll let you know its Hedgehunter, but if I do win the Lottery tonight, I'd like to call a horse Hedgehopper, sounds good. Why do I keep going on about the weight ? I think its a personal crusade ! I have to admit that 22 winners of the last quarter of a century carried less than 11 stone, though in each of those races we had many horses carrying 10 stone only, i.e. 2 stone less than the top weights. In today's encounter the bottom weights carry 10-5 and the top weight 11-12, so in reality this has compressed all 40 horses by a half a stone less than usual, which I think will make the weight factor less relevant. The cruelest national finish was probably when Red Rum beat Crisp and in his first win, Rummy got 23 pounds from Crisp. Today we're looking at a max of 21 and that would mean the top and bottom weights going head-to-head. I couldn't put anyone off Take The Stand (11-5) or Bindaree (11-3) purely on weight, and the latter has the benefit of having a twice successful jockey in the plate. JP has 6 in the race which will mean I can't back any of those except SpotTheDifference as he'll be way out the back plodding along and its too difficult with the others just trying to tell their hats apart as they fall. "Was that my one ?" At least STD will be horribly out-paced and will just keep going right to the end. I'm on Heros Collonges on Betfair at 80's and now see he's 95's. Ah well ! I've Bindaree at 45's as well as I think the ground will suit him. Good luck everyone ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted April 9, 2005 Share Posted April 9, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post For what its worth I'm on Spot the Difference. thanks to everyone who has posted reasons to / not to pick horses for this race. I know fcuk all about racing so unfortunately using a mix of luck and all of your judgement. Dave, you seem to know your racing mate, been following a lot of your posts, cheers, Spot the difference got any chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 9, 2005 Share Posted April 9, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post It has a chance Bruise. It won at the Cheltenham Festival so it depends if it is over that as it was a tough race he won. Finished 5th last year so has every chance of finishing the race but i cant really see any reason why he should improve 4 places this time round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 9, 2005 Share Posted April 9, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Ive read a couple of people be put off Clan Royal due to the length of time since its last run. It had a similar preparation last year and was an unlucky 2nd so if any horse is capable of overcoming a lengthy break like that then it will be Clan Royal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruise Pristene Posted April 9, 2005 Share Posted April 9, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post cheers AK, I got 36/1 so I'll be happy if it places Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 9, 2005 Share Posted April 9, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post OK thats enough form studying - ill be going into the race with the following STRONG RESOLVE @ 17.0 win bet STRONG RESOLVE @ 12.0 win bet HEROS COLLONGES @ 200.0 win bet HEROS COLLONGES @ 22.0 to place DOUBLE HONOUR @ 36.0 win bet DOUBLE HONOUR @ 7.4 to place Just a word on Double Honour as i havent mentioned him at all. The only negative i can see with him is that he is 7 years old, which admittedly is young to be winning a national. The reasoning behind this is that the horse is too inexperienced to cope with a race like this which tests temperament and jumping ability to the max. Double Honour has run well in all of the top staying chases he has contested this year, never out of the frame and just finding one or two too good on each occasion. Horses to have beaten him include Royal Auclair, Silver Birch, Therealbandit and Baron Windrush, some of the best around. DOuble Honour has NEVER fallen. Looking through his previous race comments, his stamina has come into play on numerous occasions and over this extra trip i fancy him (at the prices) to put up a decent show against a couple of horses who have beaten him previously. Will have to defy the historic race trends but certainly worth a bet at the prices available. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GETT1NLOTS Posted April 9, 2005 Share Posted April 9, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post People are placing there bets all over the place so i thought I would post here as well. I don't want you lot missing GETT1N's hot tips! :o Strong Resolve - right age, right weight, will get the trip. (£10 EW) Colnel Rayburn - will get the trip and will be there or there abouts if he gets round. (£10 EW) Clan Royal - trainer has had a virus in his yard but that aside this horse has proved he can go round and has a decent weight. (£10 EW) It Takes Time - great stable and decent weight. (£10 EW) 12 x 20p combination forecasts = £2.40 24 x 10p combination tricasts = £2.40 Total Stake = £84.80 Good Luck Everyone. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoneedsrio Posted April 9, 2005 Share Posted April 9, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Just a few small bets for an interest. The one with the best form is Take the Stand, I note the too much weight theory in other posts but horses with 11st+ have a decent record of placing & the way the weights are being framed these days something with this burden will win the race before long. The horse goes on any ground, has won over 4m & ran a cracker in the Gold Cup, will need to jump better early & if he gets past Becher's first time can run a big race, £5 @ 20/1. The Irish horse Nil Desperandum is interesting, has run well in some decent company & won well LTO when stepped up to 3m 2f at Down Royal, could improve even more for this marathon trip, sound jumper, £5 @ 20/1 Got to put Forest Gunner in for the fairystory. Obviously goes on the track, great run LTO at Haydock over 3m 4f & goes on any ground. Theres a few having a go at the jockey but anybody who can ride & win over these fences ten weeks after giving birth will do for me. It's their horse & good luck to them I say, £10 @ 11/1 Like GETT1N I've had a little bit on the forecasts as well 6 x £1 combination forecasts = £6 6 x 50p combination tricasts = £3 Good luck to all, Rio. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slick Posted April 9, 2005 Share Posted April 9, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post wooo this yr i have picked the same horse as Getin and a few others, decided not to read this thread untill the last minute once i had my picks as not to be influenced in any way. 1 Strong Resolve win @ 15/1 place @ 7/2 place 2 It Takes Time place @ 11/2 3 Spot Thedifference place @ 8/1 4 Amberleigh House place @ 5/1 got to nip out in a sec but Get1n i'll try and get back early and get my msn sorted for a laff again. Mickey u got any pics yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthernRed2 Posted April 9, 2005 Share Posted April 9, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Don't know if this makes any difference for anyone, but I work in Liverpool, and the weather its pretty terrible its been raining for the last hour or so and is getting heavier. With this in mind going bookies now to put me money on Strong Resolve. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 9, 2005 Share Posted April 9, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post I am on Strong resolve, Take the stand and mrs staffy gone for merchants friend. If that wins I will be very happy about £800 better off LOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kiko1983 Posted April 9, 2005 Share Posted April 9, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post I noticed someone posted yesterday saying that some races were more like a lottery - i wonder if this is the case with National or does the favourites usually win? I know **** all about horses but was thinking of putting on a few outsiders: Spot the difference Europa Just in debt Royal auclair and few others Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wire Posted April 9, 2005 Share Posted April 9, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post :welcome :beerGo on ROAL AUCLAIR nice e/w i said it last nite!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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