swampster Posted March 3, 2005 Share Posted March 3, 2005 I admit i know NOTHING about the gee-gees, but i start looking around for some juicy ante-post tips about now. there's usually some good odds to be had in march. Sporting Life have CLAN ROYAL, JOLY BEY, COLONEL FRANK and LONGSHANKS. any comments ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 4, 2005 Share Posted March 4, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Of those i like LONGSHANKS the most. The difficulty with the other 3 is the amount of weight they may have to carry on the day. As it stands they are fine but there is a chance the weights could go up between now and the day of the race. Only Papillon and Red Marauder carried more than 10st 8lb's to victory in the last 10 years. Red Marauder can be considered a fluke winner. Clan Royal is currently on a mark of 10 stone 8lb's and must be considered as he finished 2nd off a mark of 10 stone 10lbs last year. Previous runners dont have a particularly good record though: Anything that has run before should really have a negative mark against it although Amberleigh House bucked the trend last year. 91 have tried with only 3 placings and 2 wins between them. The win was the aforementioned Red Marauder. Joly Bey has a habit of jumping low and quick, not the recipe for the National fences. Colonel Frank, will do well to win carrying a minimum of 10 stone 12lb's. Hope this helps :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swampster Posted March 21, 2005 Author Share Posted March 21, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post cheers for that AK. Longshanks beginning to drift too on the exchanges. 9.20 now to be placed and 34.00 win. Had any thoughts on your picks now its coming up ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Saint Posted March 21, 2005 Share Posted March 21, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Any1 kno if SIR REMBRANT is running. Would imagine the horse would hav a stupid amount of weight but seems to need at least 4 miles!! If he is running and is around 40/1 an ew bet mite b in order. Can't imagine he's in but I'v only picked the winner once in 15 attempts and that was ROUGH QUEST too! (4/1 fav) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merry_miller Posted March 21, 2005 Share Posted March 21, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Personally i've had a punt on Royal Auclair and take the stand Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drawback05 Posted March 21, 2005 Share Posted March 21, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post "Anything that has run before should really have a negative mark against it although Amberleigh House bucked the trend last year. 91 have tried with only 3 placings and 2 wins between them. The win was the aforementioned Red Marauder." Hi AK1979, are your stats just for the last 10 years ? I only ask because I always go for something that's been round before. in a 4 mile race its good to know that you have a stayer when you bet. In my youth the Red Rums and West Tips always came back with very good chances. For that reasoning Hedgehunter looks good, although having missed the 33/1 I can't be having a 12/1 bet. I think he would have won last year if he stood up. Monty's Pass at 25/1 is a former winner I'd really fancy and maybe that'w where the fiver will go ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 21, 2005 Share Posted March 21, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Hi Drawback, I'll have a look at the declarations over the next week or so. if i remember rightly Hedgehunter seemed to run out of steam last year but i'll check it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted March 21, 2005 Share Posted March 21, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post I'm going to be placing the following bet between now & the races in question. Grand National Royal Auclair @ 20/1 - ran a cracker in the gold cup to finish 4th. Has proved it can run on any surface. Any horse that stays the 3m 2f at Chelt can stay the National course. Has form against all the top styaers & look back at last years Betfred Gold cup when it was 2nd to Puntal, just failed on the line to snatch it. The gold cup run was a bonus, this has been a target all year. Keen leader @ 25/1 - when i saw this horse last year, my immediate thought was "thats a national horse in the future". Wasnt entered last year as it ran in the Gold Cup, showed it was back to its old form running a close 2nd at Cheltenham off a big weight. I am throwing in each way doubles with these Lincoln horses: Uhoomagoo 33/1 St Peteresburg 16/1 I intend to have a little punt each day on these 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 22, 2005 Share Posted March 22, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Strong resolve has been my fancy for over a month and still not sure why! £10 @ 33/1 to win - belive its odds are currently around 25's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted March 25, 2005 Share Posted March 25, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Seen, will you be using your mathematical formula which was so succesful last year? :clap Danny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 25, 2005 Share Posted March 25, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post We had some joy with the trends during Cheltenham so heres some for the National..... Thank you to the RFO and a certain poster on EBA for providing these stats... Only Amberleigh House, Papillon and Red Marauder carried more than 10st 10lb's to victory in the last 11 years. Red Marauder can be considered a fluke winner. I would suggest crossing a line through anything carrying more than 11 stone. Although Amberleigh House defied the trends last year, horses that have run before should be treated with caution. 96 have tried with only 3 placings and 2 wins between them. The other win was the farce of a race won by Red Marauder. No Novices have won since 1958. 89 years since a 6 year old won it. 64 years since a 7 year old won it. Best to ignore anything over 10 years old. Red Marauder and Amberleigh House are the only 2 runners older than 10 to make the first 2 in the last 8 renewals. Every winner since 1970 has winning form over a minimum of 3 miles. Cheltenham winners dont win. (probably because they have had a tough race only a couple of weeks previously) The last 20 winners ran within 42 days for fitness purposes. 13 of the last 14 winners ran off a mark of at least 137 in a handicap during that season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 25, 2005 Share Posted March 25, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Of the above, the trends i'd stick to most rigidly are: Ignoring anything carrying 11 stone + (stamina reasons) Your selection should have winning form over 3miles + (stamina reasons) Your selection should have had a run in a handicap when rated at least 137. (this shows the horse is classy enough to win a high profile race) Dont bet on anything aged younger than 8 (Horses younger than this are too inexperienced to cope with the nature of a unique race like this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 25, 2005 Share Posted March 25, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Just to reinforce the weights trend, here are the weights the last 11 winners had to carry. Clearly the effect of weight is exaggerated by such marathon conditions. All of these carried less than 11 stone: Minnehoma 10-8, Royal Athlete 10-6 Rough Quest 10-7 Lord Gyllene 10-0 Earth Summit 10-5 Bobbyjo 10-0 Papillon 10-12 Red Marauder 10-11 Bindaree 10-4 Montys Pass 10-7 Amberleigh House 10-10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidcampbell Posted March 26, 2005 Share Posted March 26, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post a mate of a mate owns a 1/12 share of kelami and has been raving abut the horse for a year now. i know nothing of its prospects just thought i would throw that in there. personally i will be on amberleigh house again after last year :clap and ive heard goodwhispers (from same source as above) that strong resolve is a good thing all speculation though of course Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 27, 2005 Share Posted March 27, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Ok very early to be having a bet but i couldnt resist an each way tickle on HEROS COLLONGES @ 200.0 with Betfair :eek Very very specualtive but the horse was extremely highly regarded 3 years ago before injuring itself and missing 18 months. It has done ok since coming back although disappointed at Cheltenham last time. He has always been thought of as a National horse and boasts his jumping as one of his strengths - always useful at Aintree of course. He fits all the trends although a couple of pounds less would have been nice. Generally available at 33/1, im not entirely sure why he is as big as 200/1 with betfair. Maybe i've been conned but i've checked the declarations and recent news and he's still there. It would be a great training feat by Paul Nicholls if he were to win and at 200/1 i couldnt resist! That'll be my only bet until the day but others on my shortlist include: Strong Resolve Innox Captain Rayburn (if the ground is soft) Lord Atterbury Clan Royal Lord Atterbury and one or two others that i cant remember off the top of my head :o Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted March 27, 2005 Share Posted March 27, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post The above was 22.0 for the place by the way - i didnt mention that. Anyone who fancies Kelami, he is trading at 74.0 on betfair at the mo. He is 7 years old though so will do well to win, could be too inexperienced? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted March 29, 2005 Share Posted March 29, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post I've got Amberleigh House at 25/1, can't see any reason why he won't win it again, has been in good form this season and loves the course. Also had a small bet at 40/1 on Spot Thedifference, as it seems to be a huge price for a horse that is sure to stay and is certainly bang in form. Hopefully the exertions at Cheltenham didn't take too much out of him. I agree with what was said above about Royal Auclair, I think this is a very classy horse, capable of winning the very biggest races, and he seems back to his best after the wind op last summer - will havea great chance I think :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfan89 Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Strong resolve has been my fancy for over a month and still not sure why! £10 @ 33/1 to win - belive its odds are currently around 25's. He is about 10/1 at Ladbrokes now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliensyndm Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post A friend of a friend know the people who train/own strong resolve and they definitely fancy his chances. They fancied them at the welsh cup as well I think it was, which I mentioned and he was 2nd. The danger they say is sprinters, he was beaten by a sprinter at welsh cup I think. If the sprinters bugger off they reckon very good chance of winning. Been backed in from longish odds to 10s on laddies as mentioned already. We shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobsyerunkle Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Anyone looking for a price on Strong Resolve, best odds currently is 12's with Coral, VC and Sportingbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Strong Resolve is my selection and i've taken 16's earlier this week and 11/1 again yesterday night. Seems to have everyhting in his favour: Was 2nd to ante post national favourite Silver Birch over 3m 5f and was showing no signs of stopping which bodes well stamina wise. He will be carrying a useful weight (10 stone 6lbs) and the forecast rain will be in his favour unlike some in the field. He will go close to starting favourite on Saturday i think. Ive been put off the market leaders such as Hedgehunter, Amberleigh House, Joly Bey, Take the Stand as based on recent results i cant bring myself to bet anything carrying more than 11 stone. Others on my shortlist include FOREST GUNNER and last years runner up CLAN ROYAL. I'll give Carrie Ford the benefit of the doubt as Forest Gunners jockey. Although a woman jockey has never won the national (in fact only 2 of 12 have finished the race), the sample of 12 is a small one and i cant believe any of these rides had as good credentials as triple course winner Forest Gunner. Clan Royal was an unlucky runner up last year with the jockey dropping his whip in the run in. Loves the national fences and has conditions in his favour again. My outsider is HEROS COLLONGES, as detailed in a previous post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliensyndm Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Got some on at 25s before it was being heavily backed. Sickening thing is, look up the betfair history and you'll find a fiver traded at 150.00 , and there's over 100 quid traded at 80.00 !! They said back it now as it was gonna come down, that was a few weeks ago and sure enough it has. Now if it would just win, we'd all be happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Strong Resolve & Clan Royal. Just In Debt is one possible of making the frame, at rather generous odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidybhoy Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Will there be a tipster comp for Aintree this week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post ok, i'm on JAKARI at 40's. Henry Daly's horse has been lightly raced all season & i really fancied it at Cheltenham only for the horse to be cheated upon by the connections. Raced up with the pace throughout 1st 2 miles, jumped every fence readily & then took a hold, dropped back to 4th / 5th but really ran on well to keep that position when the race hotted up. Still on a good low weight. Meets most of the trends, just hope it gets in the race now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post you need to drop Billyhills a line to see if he'll do it. Perhaps it can be considered. Cards are superb over the 3 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kiko1983 Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Bowles - sorry i aint up to scratch in the horse racing world. I was wondering if you could explain your "i hope it gets into the race" part. How does it get whittled down etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post kiko, firstly there are 85 declared at present for a max of 40 runners on the day. The top 40 in the handicap will run. secondly, trainers may be waiting for the ground conditions before deciding. thirdly, the horse has to remain sound. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kiko1983 Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Ahh ok - thanks for clearing that up. So when is the final list decided by the trainers etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post i think it's friday & noon is when the final decs appear unless it's different for the national. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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