davidmphill Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post I like the look of Longshanks at 20/1, however i need 7 other horses to drop out before the off for him to get in. My other fancy in Colnel Rayburn available at 18/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trackspy Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post For whats its worth I am on Spot the difference at 33/1 with VC. Stays all day wont mind the ground and has proved that it can jump silly fences. Carrying a good weight too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drawback05 Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post News from Ireland 1) Montys Pass trainer says too much weight and won't like soft ground 2) Paul Carberry (best National jockey) rides Colonel Rayburn and wants soft. I don't know Carrie Ford so have to take the 25/1 about her falling, unseating or being brought down at the first (she has to ride Forest Gunner for bet to stand) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drawback05 Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post One more thing about the weights. Only Bobbyjo won outside the handicap in donkey's years. For the first time in ages ALL 40 horses this year will be running with their correct weights, which makes it a lot more open than usual. Get that pin out ! ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidcampbell Posted April 5, 2005 Share Posted April 5, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post im liking colnel rayburn all of a sudden. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swampster Posted April 6, 2005 Author Share Posted April 6, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post I have LONGSHANKS with BEt365 (who refund for non-runners). is there a chance he won't make the cut David ? (He's my main tip !!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted April 6, 2005 Share Posted April 6, 2005 Grand National Trends Horse should be carrying 11-0st or less The last winner to defy this stat was Corbierre in 1983. Before that Red Rum, and before Red Rum we have to go back to 1957. No French bred has won since 1909 Ignore those wearing headgear Since 1945 only Foinavon 1n 1969, Lescargot in 1975 and Earth Summitt in 1998 have won wearing headgear. 122 others have tried in the last 29 years. Back Older, Experienced Horses It is 89 years since a six year old won and 64 years since a seven year old won. No novice has taken the honours since 1958, and you can ignore those who were novices last season too. Must haave proven stamina Every single winner since 1970 has won over a trip of at least three miles. Ignore previous winners Since Red Rum 15 winners have tried a repeat and their record reads FF53FP4PPP80464 Ignore the winners of The Becher Chase and Tophasm Trophy Since established in 1992 NO winner of the Becher has won and the Topham Winner has never scored either Must have had a recent race The last 20 winners had all had a run within 42 days prior to the race Ignore seasonal debutants None have won since 1889 Run off 137+ in current season 13 of last 14 have done so Able to run in a big field The same 13 all placed in fields of 13+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manckevin Posted April 7, 2005 Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Well here goes my shortlist, with the most favoured in bold text together with current odds, and from where. 20 NIL DESPERANDUM (25/1, several) (questionable if it meets 3m+ and field size trend rules) 26 POLAR RED (150/1, VC, BetDirect) (fails on winning 3m+ form rule) 30 JUST IN DEBT (28/1, Sporting Odds) (does not meet 137+OR rule) 33 STRONG RESOLVE (11/1, Coral) (does not meet 137+OR rule) 35 LORD ATTERBURY (25/1, SkyBet) (does not meet 137+OR rule) 36 EUROPA (100/1, VC) (does not meet 137+ or 3m+ rules) 38 SIMPLY GIFTED (66/1, several) (does not meet 3m+ rule) Not sure if any of these below will get in or not at present. 41 HUNTERS TWEED (100/1, several) (questionable on 3m+ rule, does not meet 137+ rule) 44 NATIVE EMPEROR (66/1, Ladbrokes) (MEETS ALL RULES) 46 GARVIVONNIAN (100/1, Sporting Odds) (does not meet 137+ rule) Shortlisting carried out by ruling out in the first instance anything: French 42+ days since last run 6, 7, 11, 12, 13 years old carrying above 11st Of course, trends are there to be broken! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manckevin Posted April 7, 2005 Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Checking going history, and LORD ATTERBURY and EUROPA are questionable on the current going. However, wrt NATIVE EMPEROR, this quote from March 2004: "We had hoped he might be a SunAlliance horse but wasn’t quite quick enough for the race. We always felt he would probably stay. He would probably be better with softer ground but over the distance it didn’t really matter. Hopefully he will turn out to be a National horse one day" - Jonjo O'Neill, trainer. 4 to come out - certainly possible! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 7, 2005 Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Of course, trends are there to be broken! Amberleigh House broke a couple last year so no dramas if your selection doesnt meet one of them Very interesting about Native Emperor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted April 7, 2005 Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post As far as I know the only trend that Amberleigh house broke last year was the one about not having run in the National before, and that is one I don't use (and didn't post) anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swampster Posted April 7, 2005 Author Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post so who does that leave using all those criteria ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted April 7, 2005 Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Ok, my shortlist is (using these rules with 52 days instead + a couple from Expert Betting Advice) Prices from Ladbrokes in brackets (though betfair will easily be best on this race). Also bets I made yesterday on betfair. Hedgehunter (8/1) Glenally Gale (100/1) (have 229/1) It Takes Time (20/1) (have 24/1) Frenchman's Creek (40/1) (have 74/1) Spot Thedifference (25/1) (have 31/1) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted April 7, 2005 Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Other bets placed David's Lad @ 299/1 (layed off @ 169/1) Lord Noelie @ 189/1 (out) A Piece Of Cake @ 409/1 (layed off @ 299/1) Swansea Bay @ 809/1 (didn't make cut) Arctic Copper @ 469/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 7, 2005 Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post As far as I know the only trend that Amberleigh house broke last year was the one about not having run in the National before, and that is one I don't use (and didn't post) anyway. Amberliegh House ran in the National the previous year. The trend that Amberleigh House broke, still not one that you posted though, was that any horse previously placed in the National has a very poor record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted April 7, 2005 Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Yeah, some of the trends are connected. ie - Past winners rarely win because they are too high in the weights, not because they've won before. 13 year olds don't win anyway, so you can cross Amberleigh House off without hesitation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted April 7, 2005 Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Amberliegh House ran in the National the previous year. Yeah, I know. Horses with previous runs rarely win - that's what I said he had broken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 7, 2005 Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Dave, how does Hedgehunter make your shortlist? isnt he carrying 11 stone 1 lb? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted April 7, 2005 Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Sorry, forgot I used an over 11-5st rule (though I think you could safely rule him out). He is the only one that I haven't bet from my shortlist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swampster Posted April 7, 2005 Author Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post and some of those are 11 years old. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted April 7, 2005 Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Nothing wrong with 11 year olds. You want to be aged 8-12 for the National Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swampster Posted April 7, 2005 Author Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post i thought there was a stat about no horse over 10 years old winning ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted April 7, 2005 Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post No. As long as you avoid 6,7 and 13 year olds you'll be on the right lines Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swampster Posted April 7, 2005 Author Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post ok. well i have to redraw my shortlist then ! :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted April 7, 2005 Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Two little notes just mentioned on BBC. Although he's only had 4 runners previously, Mullins(HEDGEHUNTER) is yet to have a horse finish the national. STRON RESOLVE is scottish bred(or trained or summin). The Scots havnt won the Ntional since the 70's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swampster Posted April 7, 2005 Author Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post maybe time for one then ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winsome Losesome Posted April 7, 2005 Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Does anyone think Fondmort has a chance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aykay1 Posted April 7, 2005 Share Posted April 7, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Too much weight Winsome ;) Possibly a placing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Posted April 8, 2005 Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post Hi fellas, my shortlist is as follows, pleased to see most of them have been getting postive messages on here: It Takes Time (24) Clan Royal (12) Nil Desperandum (29) Forest Gunner (13) Spot Thedifference (32) Lord Atterbury (38) Frenchman's Creek (75) I'm considering backing them all to win! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave Posted April 8, 2005 Share Posted April 8, 2005 Re: Grand National Ante-post I'd leave Clan Royal off Danny - hasn't run for 170 something days if I remember correctly. No horse will be fit enough to win the National after that sort of break. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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