Punting advice

[BillyHills]

Re: Punting advice a) You would need a lot more data to see if this is in fact true or its coincidental and you only notice the winners/losers b) I dont know many people who would want to lay at the sort of prices you speak about to too much money c) I'm not saying you are wrong but i cant for the life of me think why he would want to put up losers on purpose and risk his reputation if ever it came out in public. Its suicide and he would be finished in the business. d) If the evidence is that damning then why isn't everybody talking about it, just doesn't weigh up to me? You could always paper trial it in the systems section?

[Aidymac]

Re: Punting advice

I posted an observation quite a few times in the past in regards to Tom Segal / Ladbrokes. I said in races where Ladbrokes are industry worst, the selection performs well and when they are industry best they bomb. Just like the times I highlighted this in the past, Tom had 2 selections in a single race today , the 330 Newmarket. The Chekka 6/1(Ladbrokes ) (4/1 SP) unplaced Cassandra Go 20/1 (Ladbrokes 12/1 industry worst ) wins at 8/1. As some of you know Tom is being courted by Ladbrokes, which I don't agree in as it may mean partial / one sided views for punters/ readers.there is no doubt that Ladbrokes know the selections long before going to press so they can act accordingly to the available information. Anyway the point of my post is, given what I am claiming, is it possible to make money by laying the selections when Ladbrokes are industry best? Given they chose to be industry best on some selections, they will be prepared to ay some at the advertised prices, with the SP always a lot shorter,can we profit if we play a long term game?

Did you read the Racing Post for that race? I did. Tom Segal tipped up The Cheka @ 6/1, and also advised a saver on Tickled Pink @ 20/1, and Tickled Pink won easily at an SP of 8/1.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Punting advice Billyhills, of course I'm not saying Tom Segal is deliberately putting us on losers,what I am saying is that Ladbrokes are getting the information before anyone else and using the info to their advantage. The times when Ladbrokes get it spot on is very likely to be coincidental but when they are the industry best we can back it and lay it when it shortens if you are not prepared to risk laying at big prices.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Punting advice Aidymac, yes I meant Tickled Pink, not Cassandra Go.I read the Racing Post this morning over a free coffee courtesy of W.Hills and made my post several hours later and wasn't really concentrating. Tickled Pink is the offspring of Cassandra Go who was almost a top class sprinter who raced in the very same colours.

[Lodge]

Sorry to take the thread in a slightly different direction but I have a couple of questions I'd be interested to see people's answers to.... 1. How much of a days racing do you look over? Eg. Do you look over every single race/card or just select races etc 2. How many bets do you have a day?

[BillyHills]

Re: Punting advice Good questions Lodge and something i'm sure is overloaded by many, to my eyes its just not possible to go through everything properly, its easy to miss some important factor if you try and cover all racecards. I also am very wary of betting too early, i know the early prices are vital to some people but it would be interesting to know how many punters end up regretting a bet due to the change in ground, whether that be due to the weather or an optimistic clerk of the course? Personally i only look at the Jumps until after the guineas meeting at least. Of those cards i look at the Novice hurdles and then the handicap hurdles. Rarely venture outside of those races on a daily basis. Might have one or two bets a day, sometimes the two would be in the same race (been using this tactic in the Tipster Comp here on the PL to good use), some days dont bother if there is nothing that sticks out, i can easily just watch the racing without investment. I'm not someone who has to have a lucky 15 on Ch4 just because its on mainstream TV or its a Saturday afternoon. I suppose when you have both racing channels this becomes less of a novelty anyway but i know some people still do this religiously. I suppose it depends on a lot of things, how much time you have for starters, and what type of backer you are. I see some people on here follow the market movers and dont bother with form too much, thats fine and they wont know how many bets they are going to have until they check the markets. At least they dont have to trawl through the form books. Thats not fun for me, i'd sooner try and read a race than rely on others and jump on the bandwagon, whatever floats your boat and makes you a profit. I dont bet for a living so dont need the turnover that some do, i imagine pro-punters need a certain level of activity to make a decent living but then again if they are full time they would have all night to sort the form out and one or two i have known about would look for at least 3 or 4 bets per day.

[cpo]

Re: Punting advice I tend to have a quick scan through the cards to see what races I can rule out and which races make most appeal. If there are good meetings on from the better tracks I usually try and concentrate on these rather than the poorer stuff. If you take todays Newbury card for example, there were 4 races on the card that made some sort of appeal to me. I left the 3 maidens alone and I have also decided against betting in the 2m race as it looks horrible to sort out and recent history of the race will show anything in the line-up can win it. There are two horses coming over from the jumps that you just don't know how they are going to go so for me it's a watching brief. Looked at the Ayr card and it made no appeal whatsoever as there are too many small field races. So I would say I probably look at around 4-6 races in detail when the better racing is on (usually Friday or Saturday) and maybe 1-3 earlier in the week. How many bets I have a day has certainly varied in the past but I am going to TRY and keep it down to as many races I look at in detail from now on. I have been known to get carried away and have far too many bets in a day....(bloody bank holidays are a nightmare!)

[Elchubb]

Re: Punting advice

I posted an observation quite a few times in the past in regards to Tom Segal / Ladbrokes. I said in races where Ladbrokes are industry worst, the selection performs well and when they are industry best they bomb. Just like the times I highlighted this in the past, Tom had 2 selections in a single race today , the 330 Newmarket. The Chekka 6/1(Ladbrokes ) (4/1 SP) unplaced Cassandra Go 20/1 (Ladbrokes 12/1 industry worst ) wins at 8/1. As some of you know Tom is being courted by Ladbrokes, which I don't agree in as it may mean partial / one sided views for punters/ readers.there is no doubt that Ladbrokes know the selections long before going to press so they can act accordingly to the available information. Anyway the point of my post is, given what I am claiming, is it possible to make money by laying the selections when Ladbrokes are industry best? Given they chose to be industry best on some selections, they will be prepared to ay some at the advertised prices, with the SP always a lot shorter,can we profit if we play a long term game?

a) You would need a lot more data to see if this is in fact true or its coincidental and you only notice the winners/losers b) I dont know many people who would want to lay at the sort of prices you speak about to too much money c) I'm not saying you are wrong but i cant for the life of me think why he would want to put up losers on purpose and risk his reputation if ever it came out in public. Its suicide and he would be finished in the business. d) If the evidence is that damning then why isn't everybody talking about it, just doesn't weigh up to me? You could always paper trial it in the systems section?

It's not that he wants to put up losers but sometimes he puts up a selection that he wouldn't normally be backing, but because the newspaper needs to put something in the column he has to find a selection! If you read his column regularly you'll can pick up on which he fancies more and which are just in for the sake of the column, Ladbrokes are clearly very good at doing that, whether there paying for that information or not is another question! It may be better to pay attention to which ones they dodge as there's money to be made backing them at best price!

[who?me?]

Re: Punting advice

Sorry to take the thread in a slightly different direction but I have a couple of questions I'd be interested to see people's answers to.... 1. How much of a days racing do you look over? Eg. Do you look over every single race/card or just select races etc 2. How many bets do you have a day?

I tend to follow horses that catch my eye and I use NagMe to update me on when the horses I'm interested in are running - I get those emails the evening before the race so I will then look at the card to see if I'm likely to be having a bet or not. I will go for days without a bet and then perhaps have several in a day. Depends on what is running and when.

[bully3061]

Re: Punting advice Hcps are my starting point and more recently maidens. I find it easier pickings when we have extreme going conditions as its easier to rule out certain runners. If you are a form reader or like stats there are no easy or quick short cuts that i no of. Hate this time of yr as you have no chance of getting through the lot. Record your bets and review to see where things are going well is my advice.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Punting advice

Sorry to take the thread in a slightly different direction but I have a couple of questions I'd be interested to see people's answers to.... 1. How much of a days racing do you look over? Eg. Do you look over every single race/card or just select races etc 2. How many bets do you have a day?

Like a couple of others have said, I just have a look at the races that appeal to me most which are mainly handicaps with a decent field (and therefore decent prices) as well as the odd Class 1 race (again if the field is decent and odds are decent enough). I tend to find that I become demotivated when I try and look through too many cards mainly because I am worried I might 'miss' one, and end up not concentrating enough on any of the races and lose money. I bet on as many horses that take my eye. For example tomorrow I will bet on 6 races, none today, 3 on thurs and 2 on weds. Sometimes the best bet can be to keep your money in your pocket, especially when your not confident enough! Something I am trying my best to do at the moment!

[erhaab1965]

Re: Punting advice

I posted an observation quite a few times in the past in regards to Tom Segal / Ladbrokes. I said in races where Ladbrokes are industry worst, the selection performs well and when they are industry best they bomb. Just like the times I highlighted this in the past, Tom had 2 selections in a single race today , the 330 Newmarket. The Chekka 6/1(Ladbrokes ) (4/1 SP) unplaced Cassandra Go 20/1 (Ladbrokes 12/1 industry worst ) wins at 8/1. As some of you know Tom is being courted by Ladbrokes, which I don't agree in as it may mean partial / one sided views for punters/ readers.there is no doubt that Ladbrokes know the selections long before going to press so they can act accordingly to the available information. Anyway the point of my post is, given what I am claiming, is it possible to make money by laying the selections when Ladbrokes are industry best? Given they chose to be industry best on some selections, they will be prepared to ay some at the advertised prices, with the SP always a lot shorter,can we profit if we play a long term game?

Educate best price 10/1 Ladbrokes this morning finished nowhere (4/1sp). Not suggesting Tom deliberately tipped a loser. Ladbrokes got prior notification and decided to lay it at best industry odds.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Punting advice Earlier this week Pricewise : 3.55 Epsom... Area Fifty One won at 10/1 ( advised 14/1 ) Ladbrokes 10/1 industry worst 5.30 Punchestown.....Captain Chris unplaced Ladbrokes industry best price 7/1 Today : 2.40 Sandown Sire De Grugy won 6/1 ( advised 11/1 ) Ladbrokes industry worst 11/2 , also Ladbrokes were best price on the 2 losing market leaders. 3.45 Punchestown , cant remember selection names but both selections were best industry price with Ladbrokes which came 3rd and 4th . the third admittedly was looking like the winner for the final mile , but failed possibly because of the inexperienced jockey I don't read the Racing Post everyday , but the 2 Pricewise columns this weeks is as I said it was recently . It could very well be a coincidence , maybe on days where I don't read the Racing Post its the total opposite to my theory.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Punting advice Very rare I am up at this time in the morning. Had a browse at Pricewise and noticed the 2 selections are or were best industry price with Ladbrokes. 3.00 ascot Sovereign Debt 9/2 3.35 ascot Earth Amber 12/1 More theory is that when Ladbrokes are best industry price. ,they are less likely to win and conversely when they are industry worst price, they have a higher chance of winning, relatively speaking. Of course it's only a theory, foolishly I have backed the first named selection because I fancy it.

[Trotter]

Re: Punting advice The 'Earth Amber' intests me............ I was typing it up in BBotD last night at about 11pm and it was 12/1 best price (which is what you say pricewise stated) But by the time I'd finished typing it was best price 9/1............let's say that was 11.15pm So.............at what time does tomorrow's Pricewise become available ? Could that fall from 12/1 to 9/1 be because some people have access to Pricewise the night before ? Presumably people at the Racing Post do !

[BillyHills]

Re: Punting advice Think the Racing Post goes on sale the night before at some railway stations in London, i know they used to anyway.

[beaker1]

Re: Punting advice its available to download from 8pm the night before the shops get the paper using i-pad app

[The Saint]

Re: Punting advice

The 'Earth Amber' intests me............ I was typing it up in BBotD last night at about 11pm and it was 12/1 best price (which is what you say pricewise stated) But by the time I'd finished typing it was best price 9/1............let's say that was 11.15pm So.............at what time does tomorrow's Pricewise become available ? Could that fall from 12/1 to 9/1 be because some people have access to Pricewise the night before ? Presumably people at the Racing Post do !

Ladbrokes - 815, Hills, Corals 830. Power - seems to vary but 830 as far as I can ascertain. Fred - 900. Bet £3.65 - don't do it!!! You will be barred straight away but it's 830. Of the rest - they won't lay a penny. Why they are still allowed to feature on the Pricewise table is beyond me. Happy to be corrected but that's mt experinece anyway.

[Kithanga]

Available online from members section night before Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum

[erhaab1965]

Re: Punting advice Given that Pricewise prices are no longer available on the day the paper is officially published, hasn't it had its day? I gave up following Pricewise over 10 years ago when I couldn't get on more than £25 and when there was a 15 minute window of opportunity between 10 and 10.15am. Now the prices are gone even before midnight ,so what is the point? It's nothing more than a bookies benefit. They'll let you have as much as you can at reduced prices but at the advertised prices they'll give you no more than the equivalent to 3 hours minimum wage. I can't see anyone in the entire country making any significant money from Pricewise.

[Trotter]

Re: Punting advice BUT..............the purpose of Pricewise isn't to make people money, it's to get publicity for the Racing Post. Judging by the number of times Pricewise gets favourable mentions on ATR, RUK, C4, racing forums etc..............I'd say it's doing it's job. People don't look beyond the headline 'Pricewise has another 25/1 winner' !

[erhaab1965]

Re: Punting advice Even Pricewise extra is a joke, their marketing is based on their ROI at advertised prices. It is released at around mid day and instantly the prices are no longer available. If the team were to base their selections based on prices post mid day, they could very well tip other horses due to the change in the market. I guess that less than 0.01% of betting turnover is bet at advertised Pricewise prices. Whenever the bookies publicly cry about being stung, it's all B'S, they want more of the betting public to lump on next time round at deflated prices when hopefully it loses.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Punting advice Another thing is that his staking plan is 1/2/3 points. I can't recall the current Pricewise having a 3 pt selection. If he was ever to have a 3 pt bet, how much would we be able to get on? I'm only guessing but £20/25 is the most some will offer , but what if your regular stake per point was £50 or more? Not being able to get £150 on makes Pricewise pointless, despite £150 being peanuts relatively speaking.

[erhaab1965]

Re: Punting advice

BUT..............the purpose of Pricewise isn't to make people money, it's to get publicity for the Racing Post. Judging by the number of times Pricewise gets favourable mentions on ATR, RUK, C4, racing forums etc..............I'd say it's doing it's job. People don't look beyond the headline 'Pricewise has another 25/1 winner' !

They charge for the paper edition and charge for Pricewise Extra by subscription fee or premium rate telephone calls, yet it doesn't do what it says on the tin.

[BillyHills]

Re: Punting advice Maybe if people stopped going on and on and on about Pricewise it wouldn't have the same effect, people on forums all over the place just keep on adding fuel to the fire.

[Aidymac]

Re: Punting advice :zzz All this Pricewise talk. Who cares.

[Elchubb]

Re: Punting advice

Another thing is that his staking plan is 1/2/3 points. I can't recall the current Pricewise having a 3 pt selection. If he was ever to have a 3 pt bet, how much would we be able to get on? I'm only guessing but £20/25 is the most some will offer , but what if your regular stake per point was £50 or more? Not being able to get £150 on makes Pricewise pointless, despite £150 being peanuts relatively speaking.

If £50 a point is your regular stake and you want to follow Pricewise, just make sure you can spread your stake around a few shops in the 15 minute window they allow you, it really ain't that hard!

[The Saint]

Re: Punting advice

If £50 a point is your regular stake and you want to follow Pricewise' date=' just make sure you can spread your stake around a few shops in the 15 minute window they allow you, it really ain't that hard![/quote'] Last time I tried the shops for Pricewise @ Ladbrokes, I was told they would hold the price until 830. This wasn't overly helpful as the shop opened at 830!!!! Not sure if it's changed or not as I have long given up chasing... :cry

[erhaab1965]

Re: Punting advice Now we are in the age of online betting we don't even have a 15 second window of opportunity. Not sure what the policies are regarding to LBOs, but probably not worth the effort.

[Elchubb]

Now we are in the age of online betting we don't even have a 15 second window of opportunity. Not sure what the policies are regarding to LBOs' date=' but probably not worth the effort.[/quote'] FFS erhaab you've been told that there's chances to get on at advertised prices, if you can't be bothered to put the effort in, stop whinging about it and just move on!