Punting advice

[mattyrobinson]

Re: Punting advice I think the thing that I struggle with, and that cpo is trying to find out, is how to assign a percentage win to each horse. I might think that a horse has got a solid chance in an 8 runner field, but do I just pluck 20% out of the air? It seems like there is a massive margin for error, even if my %s are in line with my preferred order (ie in order that I think they will finish).

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Punting advice

Also, N,Henderson has had 9 favs of his last 12 runners, and none have won, but the books, will price up on history, not that the stable is in a slight down turn, and here is were you will get value on the opposition.. He has 3 in the 4pm at Kemp, IMO the books will look to get his 3 runners, as well as the down turn, the top 3 are far superior. But the strong bookings, will keep the prices shorter than they should be.

...and following on from that horses from smaller unfashionable stables in general tend to bigger priced than if the horses where with the bigger yards if you sniff about there is "value" to be had nothing wrong with the word value but agree its in the eye of the beholder.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Punting advice

The best piece of advice i can give is never ever back a horse unless it is showing viable market support.Why would you back a horse without no clue if it was to run on its merit.My 10 rules are .. Never back a horse unless showing market support. Never back at the Cheltenham festival. Never back in Class 1,2 or 3 races unless horse is miles clear. Never back at Lingfield. Never back at Dundalk unless money is substantial Never back under 8-1. Back a horse you fancy that is showing continued market support multiple times. Never back a horse that hasn't run in over 100 days [unless horse has great record when running fresh] Never back a horse showing market support in bumpers,unless move is shortly before off. Always keep supported horses that fail to performon the day in horsetracker and back next time when showing support. Through rigourous testing i have found that these are the rules that will triple your profit,particularly the ones that pertain to market support.By concentrating on horses that show market support(that you fancy ) and back them many times if necessary .And dicount the ones not showing support or drifiting then you can increase your profits significantly..Market support is imo the most important factor in horse racing..

I would never have a bet if I followed your rules! :)

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Punting advice

Definitely agree with most of those rules you have but never back below 8/1? What sort of strike rate can you expect if you only back horses bigger than 8/1? I also find it easier to find winners in better class racing and much trickier in the lower grade stuff.

SR 11 per cent win,35 per cent place,return on investement 49-50 per cent.?

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Punting advice It takes me long enough to pick horses in the first place, never mind then formulating a tissue for the race! Sometimes I think the more you put on the more selective you become. You have to judge whether that horse is worth you risking that £5, £50, £500, £5000 etc. If you can straight away say that it is then you have found value. If you have to try and convince yourself that your not wasting your money, then in all likelihood its not value. Another example of mine to throw into the hat is Natural Spring in the 4.00 @ Kempton. She looks a very solid EW bet but at 1/5 odds I don't consider her a

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Punting advice

Some of these seem quite ridiculous. So you only back horses that are backed in at big prices before they reach 8/1? So you're only backing horses that come in from 14/1+ into a minimum of 8/1? Really dont see how this would work. Plus you're only backing in classes 4-6, you'd surely be having about 1 bet a week. Plus you mention whether the horse is trying, they're more likely to be trying in classes 1-3. If you're relying on the market surely you'd miss so many market movers cos they've already been backed in from big prices and are below 8/1? I agree the market is very important, but there's so many different factors to consider when analysing the market rather than just whether the price is shortening or lengthening.

Thanks for that comment ha ha,lets me answer your questions. So you only back horses that are backed in at big prices before they reach 8/1? So you're only backing horses that come in from 14/1+ into a minimum of 8/1? Really dont see how this would work.You make it sound as when a horse moves from 14-1 to 8-1 it is instantaneous.This rarely happens unless there is a major gamble at play or a hugh taylor pick.For example a horse moves from 14-1 to 12-1 at Bet 365.Five minutes later Hills shorten it from 16-1 to 12-1..Then ladbrokes shorten from say 14-1 to 11-1,and similarly paddy power shorten and i will then take the biggest price i can get.Bookies do not shorten prices in a matching nature.They are different entities..This can be the beginning of a sign the horse is off to win of course it may be too early to say but i would have a bet in that case if the horse was on my shortlist,and depending on strength of the pick my stake would reflect this.I would then continue to monitor the markets awaiting futher pattern similar moves and taking the biggest price i can get.If the horse had prevously been gambled and failed to win for whatever reason,i would increase stake accordingly.I would continue to back along the pattern if it is correct,it is like getting on a bus on the second stop of the desitination ,and hoping to reach the destination.Sometimes the bus doesnt go there but isnt that the same for all bets?Just with this sort of putning i have found profits can be massively increase.I have tested this over 3 years and proofed backed them on sites before,had about 3,000 pts profit in 3 years in betting.My average price is 16-1 Plus you're only backing in classes 4-6, you'd surely be having about 1 bet a week. Plus you mention whether the horse is trying, they're more likely to be trying in classes 1-3. This makes no sense.There are very few Class 1 and 2 races in a week compared to lower class races,significantly more lower class races.It is far easier to pull off a coup in a lower class race at wolverhampton than a mad class 2 flat turf handicap with 27 runners.As there are far more lower class races to get the horses handicap mark to appropriate area and price to strike.There are 23 races in the uk tomorrow.6 are Class 1-3..17 are Class 4-6....You get the exceptions like Wednesday there are a few Class 1-3 races with Newmarket and Chelts but there is still more low class races,and during a regular week there are far more low class races. If you're relying on the market surely you'd miss so many market movers cos they've already been backed in from big prices and are below 8/1? As explained above prices never move that much that quick in all the bookies at the same time.It may take 4 -5 hours to complete the pattern.For example i backed a horse 7 times at dundalk recently ,starting at 10 in morning and backed during day and was still backing it 1/2 hour before race as 8-1 was available. This is my own way of backing,i thought that was idea of thread.

[The Saint]

Good call on fancying it and respect that you did not back because you could not get the price you wanted! Won at SP of 9\2 and about 11\2 on the exchanges and never higher in running. Not sure what prices were available throughout the day. Hope I word this right as I am genuinely interested in how you arrived at the price you would want compared to odds available. The odds available indicated that it had a better chance of winning than the chance of winning you give it (or am I wrong here?). Did you set the price wanted to high or did you feel that 14\1 were the correct odds of the horse? Hope this makes some sense! At the moment with my betting I am just trying to beat SP but probably am not making what is called "Value" bets. Still learning and have only been betting for a year on horse racing (tried lots of systems - none successful) and am now trying to build up my betting and racing knowledge and make my own selections. Keep up the good work guys, some really interesting stuff in this thread and lots to think about.

Forgive me if this makes no sense but my ageing muscles have just found me at the top of the badminton rankings in Dorset for the end of the season and as pissed as a newt!! Without looking, I thinkI made this horse around a 10.0 shot. In order to obtain value, I needed 14.0 but only 12.5 became available throughout the day. I probably should have had a small involvement but this is where I am still learning. If the market support pushes the selection below the price I wanted then perhaps it is still worth an interest. The price I arrived at originally was based on the form of every runner in the race. I possibly should have realised that the horse was fitter than alot of other runners in the race too and adjusted my tissue accordingly. It's never an exact science but you've got to have a cut off point and not bet if you don't make the price u want imho. Still maintaining fluid thinking on all this but if it had been evens I clearly wouldn't have touched it with counterfeit!!! Great thread all that have contributed thius far. Will hopefully be able to add more the motor but fearful I am too pissed at the mo! There's another piece if obvious and important advice. NEVER EVER bet when under the influence!! Never done it, never will!!

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Punting advice

Thanks for that comment ha ha,lets me answer your questions. So you only back horses that are backed in at big prices before they reach 8/1? So you're only backing horses that come in from 14/1+ into a minimum of 8/1? Really dont see how this would work.You make it sound as when a horse moves from 14-1 to 8-1 it is instantaneous.This rarely happens unless there is a major gamble at play or a hugh taylor pick.For example a horse moves from 14-1 to 12-1 at Bet 365.Five minutes later Hills shorten it from 16-1 to 12-1..Then ladbrokes shorten from say 14-1 to 11-1,and similarly paddy power shorten and i will then take the biggest price i can get.Bookies do not shorten prices in a matching nature.They are different entities..This can be the beginning of a sign the horse is off to win of course it may be too early to say but i would have a bet in that case if the horse was on my shortlist,and depending on strength of the pick my stake would reflect this.I would then continue to monitor the markets awaiting futher pattern similar moves and taking the biggest price i can get.If the horse had prevously been gambled and failed to win for whatever reason,i would increase stake accordingly.I would continue to back along the pattern if it is correct,it is like getting on a bus on the second stop of the desitination ,and hoping to reach the destination.Sometimes the bus doesnt go there but isnt that the same for all bets?Just with this sort of putning i have found profits can be massively increase.I have tested this over 3 years and proofed backed them on sites before,had about 3,000 pts profit in 3 years in betting.My average price is 16-1 Plus you're only backing in classes 4-6, you'd surely be having about 1 bet a week. Plus you mention whether the horse is trying, they're more likely to be trying in classes 1-3. This makes no sense.There are very few Class 1 and 2 races in a week compared to lower class races,significantly more lower class races.It is far easier to pull off a coup in a lower class race at wolverhampton than a mad class 2 flat turf handicap with 27 runners.As there are far more lower class races to get the horses handicap mark to appropriate area and price to strike. If you're relying on the market surely you'd miss so many market movers cos they've already been backed in from big prices and are below 8/1? As explained above prices never move that much that quick in all the bookies at the same time.It may take 4 -5 hours to complete the pattern.For example i backed a horse 7 times at dundalk recently ,starting at 10 in morning and backed during day and was still backing it 1/2 hour before race as 8-1 was available. This is my own way of backing,i thought that was idea of thread.

Interesting stuff, makes more sense now you've explained it, I jumped to a few conclusions. So you're basically just looking for gambles and trying to get on as early as possible? A couple from today that stand out would be Woolfall Soveriegn and Mountain Range that both turned out to be false gambles? Think Woolfall Soveriegn started at about 8/1 so expect that wouldnt have been one you would have been interested in.

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Punting advice

A few of you on here have said how important the market is but there are so many horses everyday that get gambled in and don't win. Take my last 2 winners on here... both have drifted out from the price I took. So is the market really that informative? I understand that there are certain trainers and even certain races that market moves can be more telling but drifters often win and gambles often get beat.

Yes the market move doesnt mean they will win at all of course,a few of mine had been backed from 16-1 into 8-1 then drifted to 25-1 on course and win.And market movers lose.Some are not even market movers but when you pick your horse you are depending on trainers and connections running the horses on its merit,without any clue that they will..Market support is the clue i use.Its just what works for me.

[Max2112]

Re: Punting advice If you are happy making a small profit per day then try Arbing Obviously the bigger your betting banks get the more you can stake = more profit Only way you can lose is by being careless :)

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Punting advice

Interesting stuff, makes more sense now you've explained it, I jumped to a few conclusions. So you're basically just looking for gambles and trying to get on as early as possible? A couple from today that stand out would be Woolfall Soveriegn and Mountain Range that both turned out to be false gambles? Think Woolfall Soveriegn started at about 8/1 so expect that wouldnt have been one you would have been interested in.

Neither of them would have been in my short list in that case,i dont just back movers.I pick my shortlist similar to you may do.If none move i dont back em.Some of my shortlist win when they dont gain market support.That can be painful for sure..I have a lot more losers than winners but because of the odds the profits are always high. My SP is very low..For my last 1000pts profit say[1 year approx],my SP profit would only be 240 or that.Plus with this form of betting you start to get banned regularly...

[The Saint]

One thing I have noticed about my increasing understanding of value (mainly through this site!) is that I have become a proper tight ******* when I go shopping! Trying to explain the concept of value to my girlfriend when she is clothes shopping doesn't go down to well! :p

Brilliant!!! So, so true!! I catergorically refuse to pay more than a quid for a litre of Pepsi Max or Pringles!!!! £1.25?!?? F*** off - its 2 for £2 in Iceland!!! Lol - sounds ridiculous written down but can relate.... Can I have x? 'Yes - as long as you've checked the online price first'!!! God, I'm a sad act!!!

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Punting advice

Brilliant!!! So, so true!! I catergorically refuse to pay more than a quid for a litre of Pepsi Max or Pringles!!!! £1.25?!?? F*** off - its 2 for £2 in Iceland!!! Lol - sounds ridiculous written down but can relate.... Can I have x? 'Yes - as long as you've checked the online price first'!!! God, I'm a sad act!!!

so true...

[Max2112]

Re: Punting advice I've got tighter as I've got older too :D Probably due to the fact that I will have £1.35 per week from my private pension when I officially retire :(

[The Saint]

so true...

Thanks!!! Ha ha! ;)

[Trotter]

Re: Punting advice Ha !..........I always thought i went the oher way. I used to be a bit of a tightwad until i started betting..........then having got used to chucking 10 quid away in the bookies the idea of buying a round in the pub didn't seem quite so ridiculous.......... :rollin

[cpo]

Re: Punting advice Haha well I fully expect myself to become much tighter in the near future. Recently got engaged so have to start thinking about living in the real world. No more sponging off the parentals. Thats the main reason for me asking the question in the first place as I want to really want to improve my punting skills. Thing I struggle with most is discipline! I am pretty happy with my selection process although like anything I am sure there is room for improvement.

[The Saint]

That is unfortunatly a different kettle of fish! I always ensure I'm first or second in the chair when it comes to rounds!! Madness.... One rule for her, one rule for me!! ;)

[The Saint]

Haha well I fully expect myself to become much tighter in the near future. Recently got engaged so have to start thinking about living in the real world. No more sponging off the parentals. Thats the main reason for me asking the question in the first place as I want to really want to improve my punting skills. Thing I struggle with most is discipline! I am pretty happy with my selection process although like anything I am sure there is room for improvement.

Congratulations m8!! Fantastic news. Your a braver man than I!! I don't see the 10k outlay for the Wedding as a value bet!! ;) -

[Max2112]

Re: Punting advice Golden rule for laying: Don't think it's easy finding a loser :D

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Punting advice

Neither of them would have been in my short list in that case,i dont just back movers.I pick my shortlist similar to you may do.If none move i dont back em.Some of my shortlist win when they dont gain market support.That can be painful for sure..I have a lot more losers than winners but because of the odds the profits are always high. My SP is very low..For my last 1000pts profit say[1 year approx],my SP profit would only be 240 or that.Plus with this form of betting you start to get banned regularly...

I see, you must surely have to go through a lot of racing each day? Rather than just focus on handicaps for example? Like, you must go through quite a few races where you dont fancy anything at a big price, or think something below 8/1 look strong.

[cpo]

Re: Punting advice

Golden rule for laying: Don't think it's easy finding a loser :D

I make it look easy :cigar

[cpo]

Re: Punting advice

Neither of them would have been in my short list in that case,i dont just back movers.I pick my shortlist similar to you may do.If none move i dont back em.Some of my shortlist win when they dont gain market support.That can be painful for sure..I have a lot more losers than winners but because of the odds the profits are always high. My SP is very low..For my last 1000pts profit say[1 year approx],my SP profit would only be 240 or that.Plus with this form of betting you start to get banned regularly...

I imagine your approach is quite time consuming if you are having to watch out for any market moves?

[Max2112]

Re: Punting advice Can't count the number of 10/1 to 20/1 winners I had recently I'm arbing so ideally want the bloody things to lose to build up the betfair account - Started with £30 in my BetVictor account 3 months ago and now got almost £500 - annoying :D

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Punting advice

I see, you must surely have to go through a lot of racing each day? Rather than just focus on handicaps for example? Like, you must go through quite a few races where you dont fancy anything at a big price, or think something below 8/1 look strong.

Ya i have often made an exception for strong bet at 7-1 which has begun to move,but very rare..I dont take much time to go through race cards. i pick shortlist night before based on system for picks based on speed and weight.Oh and i rarely back in races with less than 8 runners.I just concentrate on races from my shortlist. The most successful bet is a horse that has been backed on a previous occasion but failed to make the frame for whatever reason? And if it is backed again i find the strike rate very high.When i back a horse multiple times the ROI goes from 49 per cent to 68 per cent as i follow the pattern gamble.. I never look at horse racing btw,maybe the odd one,I just dont have time and i prefer not to more out of habit than anything.I try to know as little as possible about the running of the race,only using a race summary of a horse that i am interested in for my horse tracker.I find a check on the markets every half hour does the trick nicely.The less time spent doing this the better.

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Punting advice

I imagine your approach is quite time consuming if you are having to watch out for any market moves?

It can be,and there was a lot of time required indeed.But ive found the less time you survey the market the better.Around every half hour if you get chance.Oddschecker is useless for this system,i dont go into every bookies individually to check the prices.i just survey the attheraces website as they are quicker at making a mover a non mover,thus making it simpler to spot a patterned mover.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Punting advice

Ya i have often made an exception for strong bet at 7-1 which has begun to move,but very rare..I dont take much time to go through race cards. i pick shortlist night before based on system for picks based on speed and weight.Oh and i rarely back in races with less than 8 runners.I just concentrate on races from my shortlist. The most successful bet is a horse that has been backed on a previous occasion but failed to make the frame for whatever reason? And if it is backed again i find the strike rate very high.When i back a horse multiple times the ROI goes from 49 per cent to 68 per cent as i follow the pattern gamble.. I never look at horse racing btw,maybe the odd one,I just dont have time and i prefer not to more out of habit than anything.I try to know as little as possible about the running of the race,only using a race summary of a horse that i am interested in for my horse tracker.I find a check on the markets every half hour does the trick nicely.The less time spent doing this the better.

Maybe that could help improve your selection process when looking at why a well backed runner didnt run well, but I see what you're saying there. Cheers for insight, given me things to look out for in the future, I'm intrigued.

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Punting advice also re turf racing.at this time of year i only back horses that have ran on the all weather in the winter and should have a fitness edge and may have been run on the all weather just to keep fit for the flat..I made a slight error today and backed Lilac Lace(14-1) 4.10 redcar. Backed it at 14-1,12-1 in morning and then 20-25 minutes before off i noticed a pattern move and backed it again at 12s.It wasnt till after race i realised it hadnt run in 115 days but it had won its previous 2 all weather races in late 2012 so i do make exceptions or in this case a lucky mistake

[TheBoyRooney]

Re: Punting advice

Maybe that could help improve your selection process when looking at why a well backed runner didnt run well, but I see what you're saying there. Cheers for insight, given me things to look out for in the future, I'm intrigued.

Maybe your right,but i feel the summary "slow start ,hampered etc" does the trick for me.and no problems i do admire people who study for hours on end and put out there picks straight out,i wish i could do that but i havent the patience nor the knowledge of you guys,or indeed time to watch races.

[The Saint]

Maybe your right' date='but i feel the summary "slow start ,hampered etc" does the trick for me.and no problems i do admire people who study for hours on end and put out there picks straight out,i wish i could do that but i havent the patience nor the knowledge of you guys,or indeed time to watch races.[/quote'] There's alot in that. As far as selections go, I'd maybe put myself in the top 40% of posters but that's the point. It's only half the battle. Discipline, substantial and appropriate betting banks, time, effort and more discipline are at least as important as actually selecting winners imho.