BBOTD Friday 2nd November

[Blazing Bailey]

Newmarket 210 - Rios Rosanna 9/1 bet365 BOG I have backed this one a couple of times with no joy, but the conditions have never been as perfect as they will be tomorrow for her. Back against her own sex, dropped in grade, on soft ground and over 12f this horse should be difficult to beat I would be disappointed if she didnt make the frame. The one main danger that I can see is Require who I also backed LTO and she still has a progressive look to her in conditions she will relish. However, priced up as they are, the selection is clearly better value but no doubt I will end up backing them both!

[Aidymac]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November *Require - Newmarket 2:10* Stayed on well to win last time out over 1m 3f. The step up in trip by 1 furlong is bound to suit, will love the soft ground and Kirsty rides again, she is a brilliant jockey. Is also only gone up 2 pounds in the weights which is very leniant, and must hold every chance again tomorrow. *1 Point WIN @ 4/1 Bet365 BOG*

[robertob]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November 16.45 Wolverhampton: Who's Shirl @ 6/1 Bet365 Who's Shirl is poised to win a race finally again. She really caught my eye two times in a row on the All-Weather at Wolverhampton npw and it's simply time for her to take advantage of a slipping mark if she finally gets a trouble free run. She finished 3rd in her penultimate race when she was travelling in rear and had to finish off very wide racing eight or nine wide turning for home. She stayed on very well though and wasn't far beaten in the end. It was a different story last time out when she was travelling best of all until 2f out but was then brought into all sort of trouble by her jockey. That's the only worry I have tomorrow actually as Kelly Harrison takes the mount again. Who's Shirl didn't win for two years now and is down to a very handy mark as a result of that racing off 8lb below her last (turf) winning mark. She's yet to win over 7f but I'm not really worried about that fact as she really ran on so well in her penultimate start when she had so much against her, so I feel the distance won't be an issue. It's noteworthy that she also raced once over 9f in her career - here at Wolverhampton, when she finished a very creditable 4th only 2½ beaten.

[corky]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November 1435 wetherby 1pt win sametegal new recruit to the nicholls stable,the french horse won in april,and must be of interest in this good race,albeit only 7 horses,trainer has a 23% strike rate with hurdlers,and a 27% with todays distance,and a 27% strike rate when teaming uu with ruby

[Luminaire]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November Wetherby 2:00 – TigerO'Toole

Put in a decent performance togive weight away and then valiantly chase home Fingal Bay lto. This time aroundhe is in receipt of weight from a lot of his rivals and looks to be finelytuned. He didn't look out of place in a similar event to this when fifth in theSummer Plate at Market Rasen and he can go even better today and land hisbiggest pot over fences yet.

1pt Win @ 9/2 Bet365BOG

[Lodge]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November 1.30 - Wetherby - Lightening Rod EW @ 25/1 Ladbrookes Quite a tough puzzle to solve this one and while i like the chances of The Tiddly Tadpole all of his placed efforts have been on good ground, so i'm going to take a chance with one of the outsiders Lightening Rod. Although he appears to be better over fences, he does have some reasonable form over hurdles too. His seasonal reappearance a couple of weeks back was far from inspiring but i'm expecting a better showing with a run under his belt. The previous C&D winner has been dropped 7lbs since his last run and is now off a mark of 118 which looks fair considering his 2 winning handicap hurdle marks are 114 and 115. Young claimer Jake Greenall takes the ride once more and his 5lb claim should come in handy. He will handle any cut in the ground and if stripping fitter for his seasonal reappearance i feel that he will outrun these odds comfortably.

[cpo]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November 22.48 Santa Anita Lady Shamrock 1pt win @ 14/1 Ladbrokes Think this horse is slightly overpriced considering she comes into this race on the back of 2 grade 1 wins and she would have come into the race with 5 straight wins had she not been unlucky a few starts ago where she narrowly failed by a nose after being stuck behind a wall of horses. In that race at Hollywood Park, she got stuck in behind a few horses off a steady pace and had to wait to for an age to pull wide and make her challenge. She finished with a real rattle and only just failed to get up. She showed that day, that she has the tactical speed to contend with this race being run at a crawl which could happen. She also has 2 wins to her name at the track which could prove vital and she has proven ability on fast ground. Her last two wins in grade 1 company have been impressive and she has proven herself over the trip. She has been partnered by Mike Smith for most of her starts and he is getting close to a Breeders Cup record. He currently stands on 15 Breeders Cup wins and his racing season is pretty much geared towards the Breeders Cup and other big races like the Kentucky Derby. A great jockey to have on your side for the big occasion.

[wizzkid walter]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November 3:20 Newmarket - Ninjago - Back Goodness me, this one leaps out off the page. He won lto which means he is 2 for 2 at this distance and he has at least 28lbs in hand all round here, such is his superiority compared to these on official ratings. Soft ground an uncertainty but he'd have to hate it for it to stop him. He has so much in hand here that he'd have to 2 stones below his rating to bring the others into play. 8/15 looks a great price all things considered 1pt win @ 8/15 Bet365 BOG

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November 2.35 Wetherby: Weatherbys Hamilton Insurance Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (Listed) (2m110y) Disappointing turnout, they had a dozen runners last season, but a fascinating race all the same. Hilali sets a good standard for this time of year but I’m worried about the ground for him while the McCain runner Indepub looks a possible short runner so has done well to nick a couple of weak races. The Nicholls newcomer doesn’t have to be anything special here to open his account in this country and his form in France is well up to this grade and if fit should take all the beating. I would rule out Don’t Take Me Alive for a forecast at a decent price receiving weight from all of the major players. Selection; Sametegal Evens >Paddy Power

[smith17]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November 21.28 Santa Anita: Flotilla, 9/1 >Betfred, win Flotilla ran a career best lto when she finished a 1½L fourth in a group 1 at Longchamp on heavy ground. She has only ever run on slow ground and I think she could be better on fast ground which she gets with the expected firm ground. Her sire's stats show that his offspring have the highest win percentage on good/firm ground with 11% of runs being won, compared to 0% on heavy and 6% on both soft and good/soft. Her dam won a group three on firm ground and her dam's sire's stats also suggest that firm ground will bring about some improvement. She has a great draw in stall 4 and Christophe Lemaire is in the saddle which is a big plus.

[gman1]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November 200 wetherby tiger o toole 9/2 boyles beaten by a progressive horse on his last run, this one has taken his time getting used to jumping the larger obstacles but gradually has improved. stays on same marka s last run which is potentially lenient and should sit off the pace before a late run

[BARNSLEYCHOP]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November 3.55 NEWMARKET SOHAR @ 16/1 bet365 BOG .5ew Lightly raced 4yo who arguably put in his best performance here two runs back on heavy going, was staying on that day over 1m 4f so the extra 4f may suit. Was thrown into Listed class after that run but returms back to his level today. Underfoot conditions should suit being by Iceman which is more than can be said for some of these. 16/1 is big if this gets the 2m, willing to take a chance on that at the price. Sorry to Billy for yesterdays price, must have looked at wrong line on oddschecker because it was 10's all over at the time, it was late and I had consumed a little wine at the time, thats my excuse an I'm sticking to it!!

[gstomlinson]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November 2.10 Newmarket - The Giving Tree This horse looks well overpriced here, given how well it's been shaping in recent weeks. Although this is a competitive field, and Require is likely to give another good account, the step up in trip might just suit The Giving Tree here - in her previous races this season, an extra two furlongs might have seen her win on a few occasions, given the fact she finishes so strongly. She's worth a chance off a low mark and at such surprisingly long odds. ​1pt win @ 16/1 Bet365 BOG

[The Saint]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November 745 Wolves - Silver Lace - 11/8 - Hills, Corals, Fred, Power Back in the real world, I'm not at all sure I'll be backing this - was hoping to get 3s but with the 2 NRs now, I don't think that'll be happening! Still, as I went to the effort of typing it up yesterday, and in leui of fancying anything else, you can suffer the write up today! 2 runs ago, Silver Lace was switched to the AW and showed improved form to win. The 2nd and 9th from that race finished 2nd next time out with the 3rd, 4th, 6th and 10th all winning next time up. Silver Lace herself followed up this victory beating Lean On Pete and No Dominion. Both these horses won their next 2 hcaps. Trusting back in 6th also won next time up and the 4th placed horse also finished 2nd next time out. The form appears to be rock solid. Breaking one of my own rules/guidelines in the respect that Silver Line hasn't seen action for 51 days but his first victory on the sand was achieved following a break of 70 days plus. Not my thing but Trainer and Jockey both hold a good record at the course too, showing a clear level stakes profit over the last 5 years here.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November 1.30 Wetherby - 1pt win Cavite Eta @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes) There would have to be concerns over the ground with the favourite and Martin Todhunter's charge looks to have a good chance here with conditions to suit. A front-runner who goes well for Henry Brooke, he's finished 1st and a close 2nd (to a progressive type) in handicap hurdles over this trip previously. He signed off last season with an excellent 3rd in novice company when he wasn't favoured by the weights and will enjoy the return to handicap company today. He's a winner when fresh and wasn't disgraced in a novice race when returning once previously so should be fit and the trainer does pretty well with his runners here.

[santos_]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November Wetherby 2.00 - Tiger O'Toole (1pts win, 5/1 Stan James) This looks a good race and for me Tiger O'Toole is capable of landing such a prize. Has run second last twice behind Fingal Bay last time which looks decent form. Sometimes maybe does flatter a bit but If on his A game should be there with a big chance.

[Trotter]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November Uttox 2.55 - Wild Rhubarb - win at 5/2 bog Stan James On paper this should go to one of the first 2 in the market Kindly Note (current fave) beat my selection by around 7 lengths a couple of weeks ago but the extra half mile should play into my horses hands (hooves ?) as she's already won over 3 miles at this CD whereas the fave looks like a 20F type and might not last home.

[BillyHills]

Re: BBOTD Friday 2nd November Later runners;

22.48 Santa Anita Lady Shamrock 1pt win @ 14/1 Ladbrokes Think this horse is slightly overpriced considering she comes into this race on the back of 2 grade 1 wins and she would have come into the race with 5 straight wins had she not been unlucky a few starts ago where she narrowly failed by a nose after being stuck behind a wall of horses. In that race at Hollywood Park, she got stuck in behind a few horses off a steady pace and had to wait to for an age to pull wide and make her challenge. She finished with a real rattle and only just failed to get up. She showed that day, that she has the tactical speed to contend with this race being run at a crawl which could happen. She also has 2 wins to her name at the track which could prove vital and she has proven ability on fast ground. Her last two wins in grade 1 company have been impressive and she has proven herself over the trip. She has been partnered by Mike Smith for most of her starts and he is getting close to a Breeders Cup record. He currently stands on 15 Breeders Cup wins and his racing season is pretty much geared towards the Breeders Cup and other big races like the Kentucky Derby. A great jockey to have on your side for the big occasion.

21.28 Santa Anita: Flotilla' date= 9/1 >Betfred, win Flotilla ran a career best lto when she finished a 1½L fourth in a group 1 at Longchamp on heavy ground. She has only ever run on slow ground and I think she could be better on fast ground which she gets with the expected firm ground. Her sire's stats show that his offspring have the highest win percentage on good/firm ground with 11% of runs being won, compared to 0% on heavy and 6% on both soft and good/soft. Her dam won a group three on firm ground and her dam's sire's stats also suggest that firm ground will bring about some improvement. She has a great draw in stall 4 and Christophe Lemaire is in the saddle which is a big plus.

745 Wolves - Silver Lace - 11/8 - Hills, Corals, Fred, Power Back in the real world, I'm not at all sure I'll be backing this - was hoping to get 3s but with the 2 NRs now, I don't think that'll be happening! Still, as I went to the effort of typing it up yesterday, and in leui of fancying anything else, you can suffer the write up today! 2 runs ago, Silver Lace was switched to the AW and showed improved form to win. The 2nd and 9th from that race finished 2nd next time out with the 3rd, 4th, 6th and 10th all winning next time up. Silver Lace herself followed up this victory beating Lean On Pete and No Dominion. Both these horses won their next 2 hcaps. Trusting back in 6th also won next time up and the 4th placed horse also finished 2nd next time out. The form appears to be rock solid. Breaking one of my own rules/guidelines in the respect that Silver Line hasn't seen action for 51 days but his first victory on the sand was achieved following a break of 70 days plus. Not my thing but Trainer and Jockey both hold a good record at the course too, showing a clear level stakes profit over the last 5 years here.