Racing For Rupert

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.00 Aintree - 2pts win Ruacana @ 9/1 (Bet365) Missed the price a little bit but any pieces of 14/1 that may have been around would have been an insult to the horse in my opinion! 9/1 still rates a fair price with question marks hovering over many of those at the head of affairs. I backed Rolling Star for the Triumph when hugely disappointing so find it difficult to back that at 5/2 and Irish Saint just doesn't fill me with any real confidence to be honest. I think both are underpriced and a lot of John Ferguson's runner's form stacks up pretty well in this contest. He was useful on the flat and has made up into a nice hurdler and seems to be fairly progressive. His pedigree shouts out that better ground ought to suit - which may look a bit odd having looked at the form, but I think he probably ran his best races on the flat with a sounder surface and hasn't really had the chance to prove himself on good ground yet over obstacles. Still, he managed to win his first two (fortunate 2nd time out but still would have been a decent effort to be 2nd on heavy ground) and a staying on 3rd behind Our Conor and Diakali is strong form, especially as I do feel this better ground will see him to better effect. That form has been nicely franked by both the winner and the runner-up who finished 4th in the Triumph behind the very impressive conqueror and my selection's effort in the Fred Winter was strong. He did best of those forcing the pace when fading into 7th of 24 in the closing stages. The track here and better ground can help but of the eight runners ahead and directly behind him there, 7 were described as "held up" with the other "in touch". That suggests he did well to maintain the gallop and Denis O'Regan is back on board today. I'd much, much sooner back him at 9s than those much shorter and I'd be surprised if he didn't run well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.30 Aintree - 1pt e/w The Giant Bolster @ 10/1 (Boyles) Silviniaco Conti will be tough to beat but does have a fall to get over and I think there's an opportunity for a knocking each-way bet in this. Okay, all of my e/w bets tend to be absolutely terrible but 10/1 looks too generous about David Bridgwater's charge in my eyes. He's not the best jumper in the world but is still a classy animal and will absolutely relish the good ground on offer this afternoon. His massively impressive win at Cheltenham in January 2012 came when the ground was riding fairly well and it was good ground when he subsequently finished a terrific second in an albeit weak Gold Cup. Still, a repeat of that would see him in the mix here for sure and he doesn't look much worse this year. Bridgwater was very bullish about his chances in the renewal last month and the horse did run another good race. He made a trademark mistake at an important time but still finished a decent 4th in a strong renewal. They came home 27 seconds slower this year to suggest the ground was considerably softer so it really was a good effort to say that it's well known that he's a good ground horse really. It is tricky knowing how well a horse will come out of Cheltenham and run at Aintree but I'm willing to bet that he'll be good enough to finish in the top 3 at least.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Would love to have a bet in the Aintree Hurdle but just can't see an angle really. Hope Grandouet or The New One does it. I reckon the latter is a class act for all the race suited him at Cheltenham. Reckon he's the one to beat but 100/30 or shorter is no price at all. 3.40 Aintree - 2pts win Warne @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes) Was tempted to have a small play on another horse in here because you can easily come to grief early on and be disappointed but have decided to put all my eggs in one basket named Warne. It's a fairly boring selection with him being right up near the head of affairs but to me has everything you want for this race and if he gets luck on the way round then it's hard to not see him bang there. He looks like the type to relish the fences (for all you never truly know) as he often gives his fences plenty of air so the capability to produce a big leap is obviously a big plus around here. I'd say this is his ideal trip (most of his wins under rules have come at around this distance), he has the sufficient class to take this (right up there on ratings) and comes into this in very good form. Although his 9th to Salsify may look a bit disappointing two starts back it was a hot race over a very testing 3 miles and he wasn't a million miles away in 4th jumping the last but found no extra up the run-in and faded. He was trying to give weight all round that day too and everything was just a tad too taxing. The drop back in trip will help and he'll definitely get home with the ground as it is you'd fancy. He won last time out from a below-par Tammys Hill but had enough good horses in behind to make it strong form anyway. That was the same trip as today and he had plenty in hand (barely had to come off the bridle) and all in all he looks a pretty solid bet to go very well barring mishaps.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.15 Aintree - 1pt win Astracad @ 10/1 (Bet365) Kid Cassidy comes here in peak form but this comes hot on the heels of Cheltenham and Nicky Henderson said he'd be concerned about the horse being burdened with top weight. He's therefore swerved and the horse I'm keen on avoided Cheltenham altogether and should be spot on for this. Nigel Twiston-Davies is in form and Astracad is a largely consistent fella who will enjoy conditions today and although not obviously well-handicapped, still looks fairly sure to run his race and with the blinkers applied for the first time, that can eke out the little bit extra required to win this. He is a horse who often hits a flat spot in his races before staying on when he's too far back and isn't the best jumper in the world so it's well worth a try in my book and if he can hold his position a bit better then I expect a bold effort. He was 2nd in this race off 2lbs higher last year (albeit no match for the winner) and his runs this season have been reasonably good. His 4th at Cheltenham was a strong effort on his seasonal return. He was only beaten 8l with errors behind a well-handicapped winner, a horse who won since in 3rd and Kid Cassidy back in 4th (big swing in the weights today in my selection's favour). He then ran over 2m5f at the same course but the ground was heavy and the trip not his best and he unsurprisingly dropped away into a well-held midfield spot. He's been off since but regularly goes well fresh and obviously doesn't have any recent exertions. He's a genuine good ground performer too with 4 of his 6 career wins coming on ground described as "good", 1 on "good to soft" and 1 on "soft" but that one came in a race he was 40/85f so he probably got away with it rather than anything else. You never know how horses will react to first time headgear but if it does the trick then he really ought to be in the mix.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 5.25 Aintree - 1pt win Hada Men @ 40/1 (Hills) This is the type of race that a big-priced horse can come and take and they don't get much more of an outsider than Venetia Williams' charge in here. It would be foolish to rule out any of her runners this season as she's been pinging in the winners and I do think this horse is a bit better than a 40/1 no hoper. He can look a bit lazy or slow in his races when dropping to the rear before passing beaten horses but I think there are other excuses present and this should suit a bit better. Obviously the odds are 40/1 for a reason so you can't expect a great deal but I have a feeling there's a big run in this horse from down the bottom of the weights where many horses who run well in this race lurk. He was with Brian Ellison but has improved again since joining Williams and ran okay at Chepstow on his seasonal reappearance but was entitled to need the run. He then ran on soft ground at Cheltenham when doing his usual trick but turned in a much improved effort to be 3rd at Warwick in January. He was beaten 5l and less by Ely Brown and Holywell with that form nicely franked since at the Cheltenham Festival. He won at Doncaster next time out over 3m1f from a horse due to go up in the weights (ran okay off 7lbs higher next time out) and there were 9 lengths back to the third. A stiff grade 2 on bottomless ground at Haydock was never going to be his cup of tea next time and ran on into midfield in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham. A lot of this horse's best efforts have come on better ground so I think you can mark up his form this year a bit and I don't think it's coincidence that his two best runs this season have come on flat tracks. Therefore this should suit better than Cheltenham (other than the stiff finish) with him able to travel better/hold a position when he gets half-decent ground and a flat track. He does his winning in the first part of the year as well and I just think he can outrun his odds today dropped 3lbs by the handicapper since Cheltenham. Fingers crossed.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Load of rubbish really. The Giant Bolster should have gone so much better. Can't pick anything out in these big races.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Same old **** really. Warne runs a stormer to be 4th in the Foxhunters but beaten by 100/1, 33/1 and 40/1 shots. You can't really do much about it because I'd never have backed them. Astracad's jumping frailties played up again as he falls but was travelling better today so you never know...

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Next Festival winner: Goodwood 2016 I predict.

[windy ways]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert i look in every day i like your style chin up

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Haha thanks buddy. Competitive racing = finding winners difficult but usually the odds are better so you just have to stick it out. Frustrating but not losing any enthusiasm to crack on so no real harm done (just yet!) :lol

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert And we go again! 2.30 Aintree - 2pts win Super Duty @ 6/1 (Boyles) I do respect Dynaste but can't back him personally and think Rocky Creek is overrated to be honest. Okay his form looks good on the bare facts but I think there are holes in it and I couldn't back him at 9/4 personally. He beat a horse who's not a 3-miler in Molotof on his second chase start before partially benefiting from a faller at Warwick with the rest of the form hardly working out brilliantly and he didn't blow me away at Ascot. Those two will probably totally dominate now I've said that but I think there's a good chance both will be beaten and so long as Super Duty is over his Cheltenham exertions then he is comfortably the one I want to be with. It was a storming effort from the front when only collared late on in the Kim Muir - especially as he was hassled for the lead throughout. There looks a good chance he can dominate this smaller field given he's the only confirmed front-runner in the race and he's typically a sound jumper. Add these together with the fact he can see out the trip no problem and better ground seems not to concern him, I think he can take a lot of pegging back around here. The rest of his chasing form stacks up well (only just outstayed at Wetherby when they went a good gallop over 3m1f on testing ground) but will have no problem getting home here and should run a bold race.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.40 Aintree - 1pt win There's No Panic @ 14/1 (Bet365) and 1pt win Sizing Santiago @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes) I think the fact that Paul Nicholls runs a horse with a rock solid chance in Fistral Beach yet he appears 2nd string suggests how highly they think of this novice and although his lack of experience over fences is a concern, he's a bold jumper and so far looks a very talented animal who should relish this test. I'm slightly concerned by the fact he can brush his hind legs through his fences but other than that he looks to have a really good chance here. All of his best form has come on a sound surface so he will relish the ground today which is pretty decent on the National course and that only serves to make his recent form all the more impressive considering he's been running on soft. He jumped well at Sandown last time out behind Soll over 3m1f and seems to stay that far so the extra stamina could come into play on the punishing run-in after the last. He has plenty of form at around this trip though and appears to be fairly progressive. Runs off the same mark today but with conditions more in his favour and with a clear round should go well. At a big price I like Peter Bowen's runner who may not be the yard's first string or fancied in the betting but we know that shocks happen on this course and I do think he's overpriced. The yard are in good form and it's well-known that he can prepare one for this course having trained Always Waining to multiple successes in this race. This horse was pulled up when last seen but the yard were 0-57 for the months of December, January and February so there's an excuse there but his horses have improved of late and this horse could enjoy this unique test. He won in November at Newbury off 3lbs lower - putting in a decent display but he does nothing in front so I think you can upgrade the run slightly. He was sent on early and idled but was holding off the runner-up quite readily at the finish. He's a decent jumper and is also a good ground horse so conditions suit and the fact he hasn't been seen since January is of little concern to me as he's gone well fresh in the past. Runs off a light weight and at a price can run well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.15 Aintree - 1pt e/w Our Vinnie @ 8/1 (PP) Posted this before the Albert Bartlett:

2.40 Cheltenham - 1.5pts e/w Our Vinnie @ 9/1 (Bet365) The withdrawal of Ballycasey is no bad thing for me as I couldn't make head nor tail of that one. I do like At Fishers Cross but the one that stands out as each-way value to me is Our Vinnie who is hard as nails and looking at the race could be tough to pass if setting off in front. He has tried to make all in a few races of late which I think suits as he has stamina in abundance and a very good attitude. He's a real battler which is a big asset in a 3m novice race and given there doesn't seem any real front-runners in the field with his exception I think he could get a nice lead to make it a test for the rest. He does have sufficient quality too, however, beating some good horses on his path here. He probably should have been made more use of when running here in the autumn over 3m2f as he made a mistake at the last when challenging which cost him a lot of momentum but he flew up the hill to only just fail. That proved his stamina and also he handles this track and having first run would have helped. With proven stamina he set off in front at Cork and Limerick in small fields and was headed both times. However, he rallied bravely to win both from the very smart Rule The World and Pride Ofthe Parish. Although beaten 22l in 3rd last time he dropped back to 2m4f which isn't ideal and faced Pont Alexandre and couldn't get to the front with that opne making all. The substantially stiffer test here will suit and if the rain comes this afternoon then all the better as he should outstay plenty of these which is why I think he's a good each-way bet - especially if getting his way up front.

He was brought down on this occasion before we got to see how he'd have run but I still think he's got a decent chance today. Okay so the sharper test ought to not suit as well but the same can be said for At Fishers Cross who as much as I like think is worth taking on so soon after the race and with different conditions. My selection at least benefited from not having a hard race so long as he's over his tumble and I'd be surprised if they held him up again today. I was surprised at Cheltenham and considering he stays well and there's no guaranteed front runner in the contest I think they can make good use of him and make him tough to pass. On formlines he can beat Road To Riches and I'm not a fan of any of the others (perhaps with the exception of Master of the Sea) so he makes appeal at an each-way price and hopefully he won't continue my curse of each-way bets!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.50 Aintree - 1pt win Peckhamecho @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes) I think this is a generous price for Rebecca Curtis' charge as his run behind Medinas at Ffos Las looks rock solid now with that one winning the Coral Cup off 8lbs higher and the third at the Welsh venue has twice run well in good races since so the form stacks up and the easier test (heavy ground, selection looked the winner between last two) will suit. He went back to fences last time out but as in the past his jumping badly let him down and he did well to be within 13l come the line in all honesty considering his frailties. He looks a considerably better hurdler so this is obviously a good move and the flat, sharper track really should suit him. His best efforts seem to come at such venues and all of his wins have come on good to soft so his two good hurdling runs this season can be upgraded a little too you fancy. The six weeks or so he's been off since that chase run will suit as he goes well fresh (most recent win came after a break and 2nd at Ffos Las) and overall the 25/1 on offer looks quite generous. He's not tremendously handicapped or anything but ought to run a big race with many of these coming here off the back of a Cheltenham run.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 5.25 Aintree - 2pts win The Pirate's Queen @ 8/1 (Skybet) It isn't often I get very involved in a bumper, especially a competitive one like this, but I am very keen on the chances of Alan King's runner down the bottom who shaped with masses of promise at Kempton on her debut last month. She has plenty of stamina in her pedigree so it was a little surprising to see her travel the way she did - taking a pull for a long way. She moved sweetly but found horses directly in front of her as the leaders quickened for home and by the time she got herself into the clear she had quite a bit to find. The way she finished under pressure was impressive considering her obvious signs of greenness and managed to get herself into a closing 2nd at the finish. The winner's an obviously nice type from Henderson but the 4th (beaten 11l by my selection) only went down 1/2l to a decent type next time out) so the form looks rock solid and she'll have learned plenty for the experience. She's open to bundles of improvement but looks to have a nice combination of speed and stamina which is ideal around here especially and if getting into a good position then it's hard to see her not going well. Wayne Hutchinson is a top class jockey and the way this is likely to be run also should suit really well. All in all she looks a nice type and ought to be there at the finish.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Argh. Sizing Santiago put in a terrific jumping display there and looked a big threat going into the latter stages but just couldn't go on. No complaints but disappointed 'cos I thought he had a huge chance the further they went.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Looks like it's gonna be a blank Cheltenham and Aintree. Consistent today: 4th, 6th, 6th, 5th I think. Meh.

[Blazing Bailey]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Chin up fella, you can go through the card tomorrow! After today's results I know I need to! :)

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Deep breath. Game on. Decided to go to Charlton tomorrow so won't get to see the racing which is a damn shame (might catch a couple of them in London beforehand) but oh well. Quite a few fancied, but not ridiculously short priced runners go to post so I'm hopeful of breaking my duck!!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 1.45 Aintree - 2pts win Eduard @ 11/2 (Boyles) I obviously respect Up And Go but I think he's worth taking on at such a short price considering this is tougher, he won't get his own way up front even in this small field, and the ground is different. He's been dominating from the front of late but there are a few others in here who like to force the pace and that could help set it up for a closer. One horse who would relish such circumstances is Nicky Richards' runner for all the yard form is a slight concern. This one is a smooth traveller and jumper who has lots of rock solid form this season and would love a sound gallop to race off here. He's been beaten three times over hurdles but one of those was a narrow defeat to the classy Ifandbutwhynot on debut/seasonal reappearance, another was a solid effort behind Melodic Rendezvous (giving weight on very testing ground) and last time out at Kelso. The winner had the run of the race really and ran out a game winner but I think a better pace and sounder ground would probably suit my selection. Although he's run well on soft his best form by the looks of it has come on better ground so with that and the track in his favour, I think he can really put it up to those ahead of him in the betting.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.15 Aintree - 3pts win Overturn @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes) Oddly enough I think this may be the first time I've ever backed Overturn but 9/4 is very tasty in my eyes. Alderwood is naturally respected but everything looks absolutely rock solid for Donald McCain's runner here and I think he can quickly bounce back from Cheltenham. McCain solely blames the soft ground for his poor run but they also went a crazy gallop in the Arkle so there were obvious excuses there as well as the track which probably doesn't play to his strengths as much as here. He's comfortably a better horse on quicker ground and so long as that run didn't take it out of him then he's the class act here. I simply can't have Baily Green at 3/1 when that one benefited from the furious gallop at Cheltenham and looks a stronger stayer who will find the sharper test against him in my opinion. Overturn should be able to dominate this field much easier and if getting into a good rhythm then track and ground are right for him and good luck trying to get past him. Bold run on the cards and tough to beat if ready to go.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.50 Aintree - 1pt win African Gold @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) Looking at the bare figures Nigel Twiston-Davies' runner has plenty to find here but although he does have to improve, he's better than a 145 horse, it's as simple as that in my eyes. His gallant 2nd to At Fishers Cross has been boosted today and the horse that my selection beat two starts back comfortably (eased 4l) hacked up next time to get a 4lb higher rating than African Gold as things stand! The yard say he's improving fast and interestingly believe he needs good ground to be at his best - despite running good races on much softer this season. If this is true then he's obviously very smart. On the evidence of Cheltenham where he travelled very well before getting understandably tired, this easier 3m on better ground will suit and although Solwhit may prove tough to beat, this progressive horse should be ruled out at your peril and it seems an indication of how highly connections think of him to send him here rather than reoppose the Albert Bartlett winner earlier today.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.25 Aintree - 1pt win Problema Tic @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes) I wanted to back this horse earlier in the season at Ascot but he was pulled out in the end and although he's run average races the last twice, the promise he showed before that to get my interested still rates sufficient enough to encourage me to go in again today. The essence of the matter is he's a good ground horse. He's 4-4 on ground described as good so this season has naturally been far from ideal with the weather we've had. He won off the same mark that he runs off today at Ayr at the back end of last season and his reappearance effort at Cheltenham was highly encouraging as he travelled well for a long way on soft ground and just got tired late on. He also went well prior to falling in the Becher chase here at the 17th fence. Okay he was poor at Warwick but was very weak in the market and it was probably little more than a warm-up for Cheltenham (stable also had hot favourite who won). At Cheltenham he wasn't disgraced but only finished in midfield. His jumping let him down and the ground was still not ideal. The ground and the flatter track are both in his favour I think today and obviously has dropped to a good mark. Blinkers are applied for the first time and if it helps him to concentrate and jump a bit better then he's got a chance here. Tom Scudamore is back on board for the first time since the Becher which is an obvious positive and fingers crossed for a clear-ish round.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 5.10 Aintree - 2pts win Ranjaan @ 8/1 (Bet365) The signs suggest this one is going to be very well backed (already nudged in) but it is with good reason in my opinion. I backed him at Cheltenham but the rain unfortunately came again having initially the ground dried up a bit so the conditions were worse than when I placed the bet. He really, really needs a sound surface so you can excuse a lot of his form. His record on good to soft or better is 112F110. The 0 came at Cheltenham last time but I think that's a bit misleading as the ground was worse than that in my opinion given the rain in the hours prior to the contest. Anyway he finished in midfield, making some late ground up, but has been dropped 5lbs for that effort and with Harry Derham taking a further 5lbs off in this conditional/amateur riders contest I think he's off a good mark. He won a decent race off 132 at Taunton last season and effectively goes off 130 here with conditions right for the first time in ages. His hurdling wins have come at sharpish tracks in Taunton and Kempton so the flat and easier venue should suit and prior to his Cheltenham run he was a solid 2nd in a jumpers bumper at Kempton - proving he is in decent nick. You can safely excuse his seasonal debut earlier this campaign when going ok for a fairly long way on bottomless ground at Ascot and with his mark lower now and conditions in his favour it's hard to see him not putting in his best hurdling performance for a while.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Will put On His Own up in the morning with a better price expected - to go along with the 25/1 already posted about Balthazar King.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.15 Cheltenham - 1pt win On His Own @ 12/1 (Hills) Backed this horse last year although he was inexperienced and young at the age of 8 so should be better suited this time around. May not have run over fences since but has a good hurdles win to prepare for this and looks to have a huge chance if staying on his feet to me. Ground doesn't really matter to him it seems and having watched the race over again last night from last year, the further they went, the better he went. He was right out the rear early on and took a while to warm to the fences but made some really tidy headway to travel strongly into Becher's on the second circuit. Didn't get a clear look at the fence as the loose horse blocked him off a bit and he came down. Obviously it's tricky being sure whether a horse will stand up - especially one who may be held-up but Ruby Walsh is on board this year and Willie Mullins thinks he's better than Hedgehunter. Has a decent weight, top connections and if getting round you'd fancy him to be bang there. 12/1 is definitely a solid price and fingers crossed he can gain compensation for last year should Balthazar King not win!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Take out Cheltenham and Aintree and it's been a very decent season. Unfortunately fallen embarrassingly short on the big stage. Will try pick up a few wins in the decent cards that remain but that's nearly the campaign over. Gutted not to have got something at the festivals as it has hindered the profit quite substantially but at least my failures there haven't forced me into a season loss so that's some consolation.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Today at Ascot is my sort of card. Decent quality but not as competitive as festival races on the whole. Fingers crossed.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Great time for my internet to go down. Still should be decent notice 'cos I don't think there's anything in the first two races.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Sorry - this one first as price is coming in: 4.40 Ascot - 2pts win Mr Gardner @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes) Have backed this horse the last twice since returning from a lengthy absence and has shaped well both times. He was smart before suffering an injury at Cheltenham in 2011 and is very usefully handicapped on that form. He was given a very gentle introduction back to the track at Wincanton when he went well for a long way but was never asked any questions by Tom O'Brien and he finished 4th. Last time out he tried his luck in a competitive race at Newbury but O'Brien often struggled to find a stride and he was outjumped quite regularly. However, he stayed on again having lost his place to finish a good 4th in the end. That suggests that this step up in trip can suit and I'm very pleased to see Noel Fehily on board today as I rate him highly. This is an easier race and the return to a right-handed track also seems like it could be in his favour. The ground should help him see the trip out and if he gets home I think he'll go close.