Racing For Rupert

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.25 Ascot - 3pts win Calculated Risk @ 7/2 (PP) John Quinn's horses are in cracking form and he doesn't send many runners down to Ascot so this is an interesting horse today. He won his handicap debut in good fashion at Sandown despite making a bad error in the closing stages and connections also are sure he wants a sound surface so is worth substantially more than the bare victory there on the deep going. It was a rock solid juvenile contest as well so the 6lb rise doesn't look restrictive at all and although this is competitive it's hard to see him not going very close. His best efforts have largely come on a sound surface and has twice been a good winner at Doncaster so this flat track, albeit the other way round, should suit as well. He's better than a 125 horse when getting his conditions in my opinion and a nice even pace looks likely which will give him a very good chance of landing the spoils.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.00 Ascot - 2pts win Conquisto @ 7/2 (Hills) Tetlami to me is a sharp track bridle horse and I fancy him to come off the bridle around here in a competitive race and I'm not sure how much he really finds off the steel in a decent race. Steve Gollings' runner really appeals to me here who has the backing of Tom Scudamore who is 2-2 on the horse. This is his only ride on the card which is interesting in itself and this one looks a progressive type. Useful on the flat, he looks a good ground horse so the decent ground on offer today is a big plus and I think you can mark up his chasing efforts that have come on a soft surface. He won well on his chase debut before having to settle for 2nd best behind Overturn prior to a heavy ground 2nd. He won well last time getting a good surface (eased down to score) for all he didn't beat that much. However, he had plenty left in the tank. I think the track today will suit ideally and 6 of his 8 wins have come on good to soft or better. He won a handicap hurdle easily off 135 so a mark of 138 looks viable over jumps and he'll go well I think.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 5/1 with Ladbrokes sorry - not sure what I'm doing!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 5.10 Ascot - 2pts win Buck Magic @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes) Neil Mullholland's runner is one I've been keeping an eye on all season since backing him when he won on his seasonal reappearance at Cheltenham. He did well to win that day because his jumping wasn't brilliant and he didn't travel all that well. I think he's better on a flatter track and has run other top races this year. He was 3rd in the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton before bombing out on heavy at Wincanton. He bounced back to win at Newbury and was midfield in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham. To me he wouldn't want the ground to be that soft so you can mark up some of his efforts this term and he also seems to go best when getting a little breather (ran at Cheltenham just 11 days after winning at Newbury). This is a fairly quick turnaround but still over three weeks and I think everything is right for him here. I think a testing 2m5f or so is suitable or 3m on decent ground and I think the flat track, ground and trip should suit with a very capable 5lb claimer in Chris Meehan taking the ride. This is a drop down in class and I'm hopeful.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Back to the normal racing and back with a winner. Calculated Risk wins and probably worth a bit more than the winning margin of a head. Was caught behind horses a bit turning in so had quite a bit of work on but Costello pulled him out and he stayed on really well to challenge at the last and got narrowly on top late on. Important win that. Hopefully there's another one or two lurking today! Returned at 4/1 as well so a small bonus too!

[Karijini]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert

Back to the normal racing and back with a winner.

Congrats and well done. Good luck!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Conquisto ran a decent race in 3rd but just couldn't quite go on up the straight. One of these last two to go in would make Aintree seem a long time ago!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Mr Gardner falls when running well. Travelling better than most and still seemed to have something left. Too early to say but only about 4 to jump. He's gonna be a cliff horse for me. So frustrating there as I think he'd have been competitive.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Only a 6pt profit today. Need a big day really. Disappointing with the first one going in. Will never know what might have happened with Mr Gardner but Fehily hadn't exactly asked him any real questions when coming down but would have been entering new territory when it comes to stamina. Shame.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert +18pts now as the season fades away. If I'd have stayed away from Cheltenham and Aintree I'd probably be about +75!

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Although I'm disappointed with the last month or so, I'm pleased with the season on the whole. Been in profit all season pretty much and haven't had too many long losing streaks. Still improving - discipline has been better and have been more selective. Perhaps shouldn't have hit the Festivals so hard but because the races are so competitive there's always likely to be a horse who looks an attractive proposition - it's just there are so many of them you can be on a horse with the right credentials but just finds one improving past them or being that little bit better. Hope I can get a couple more winners with what's left but won't be diving into weak cards unless there's something that stands out. Hoping to end with +30pts as a target in my mind but any profit can't really be sniffed at. Plenty of progress in the last year or two and hopefully the trend can continue into the flat this year.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.55 Gowran Park - 1pt win Burnt Sienna @ 16/1 (Sportingbet) Showed some nice promise when staying on over a mile on her second start when 6th of 14 at the Curragh and her mark of 68 looks fair on that effort. Those ahead of her are now rated 89, 83, 84 and 89 (winner not raced since) so if taken literally she should be competitive going handicapping now. She was last when seen at the end of last season but that was in a listed race where she wasn't expected to be up to much so that can be excused. She'll have to be fit on her return today but has a good draw and Seamie Heffernan takes over on board. Optimistic of a decent run at a price.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2nd @ 16s. Argh.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Feels like the flat is back a bit more today. A few selections at Catterick and Nottingham. Fingers crossed.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.20 Catterick - 2pts win Poppy Bond @ 5/1 (PP) Chris Fairhurst has his horses seemingly in good nick which is a big plus for this one. He hasn't had a winner from his last 42 runners on the flat but recently has had two winners from three runners over jumps and a second on the flat so it looks a time to side with the trainer and this horse showed plenty of promise last season before bombing out at Southwell on her seasonal return. There were obvious excuses there - fitness, surface and the fact she was badly hampered at the start. She won on debut at Redcar last season, staying on well to get up late on, beating a 95-rated rival although I wouldn't get all that carried away with that! Either way, she runs off 60 today and she was still green when staying on in a 0-85 handicap at Nottingham on her final run of 2012. Wasn't beaten far at all and this is a significant drop in class. Seems to have been backed today and I reckon she'll go very well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.40 Nottingham - 2pts win Moviesta @ 7/2 (PP) They often say unlucky horses are overbet next time out and I think that's definitely the case with the 13/8 favourite here. This is a competitive race and although that one was a bit unfortunate over 6f at Yarmouth I'm not sure he should be such a price really. He didn't seem to pick up all that well at first so the drop to 5f would be a slight concern for me in such a decent contest. Won over 5f here before but that was when outclassing a weak set of rivals and I think she's far too short today. On the other hand, Bryan Smart has his horses in form and his handicap debutant here looks to hold a strong chance. He was green on debut when 3rd at Pontefract and split good horses next time out at Ripon - winner now rated 99 and 3rd who was comfortably held now rated 89. Moviesta ran away with a Wolverhampton maiden last time out, beating Secret Missile by 4 1/2l - albeit with the experience advantage. However, that one runs off 80 today with my selection off 83 and I think a galloping 5f is perfect for him. Seems to have been supported so he should be ready for his seasonal return and think he'll make them all go to beat him.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.20 Catterick - 1pt win Glenridding @ 8/1 (Sportingbet) James Given's runner will relish the conditions today as a sharp 7f plays to his strengths and is drawn to attack from his inside berth. He's run well here before and is off a decent mark for all he hasn't won for a little while and is getting no older at the age of 9. The vast majority of his wins have come when making all and I'd be hopeful of him getting to the front today from stall 1 and should be tough to peg back. He's never had a good record fresh so it was promising to see him go well for a long way at Wolverhampton last time out. He couldn't get to the lead which isn't ideal and they went a decent clip but still was in the mix until halfway up the straight or so and should come on plenty for that. He's been nibbled at in the market this morning and can take some passing today I fancy.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.10 Nottingham - 1pt e/w Muffin McLeay @ 33/1 (SJ) Outsider of the entire field here for me which may look a bit crazy but I do think 33/1 exaggerates his lack of a chance in my opinion because he didn't have conditions to suit at the back end of last season and can't have been expected to pull up many trees in the Lincoln on his seasonal return, also on ground a bit on the soft side. He goes better on his 2nd start back than his 1st and this is obviously going to be a bit easier than that race at Doncaster. Although he won his maiden on soft I think he's a better horse on good ground and ran several good races last summer. He was a shade unlucky at Ripon prior to getting his handicap win back there in July over 1m2f. He beat a horse who franked the form that day (with the pair 7l clear) but was still probably a bit harshly treated afterwards. Especially as both runs afterwards came on heavy. Should strip fitter now and David Barron's runners were a little out of sorts in the Autumn which is another possible excuse. They're going better now and the ground is ideal. Although his wins have come over a little bit further I think a good gallop over a mile on decent ground will suit perfectly as he can travel well and he's overpriced for me today for all he'll need to show substantially more.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 1st one drifted badly to 9/1 and never out of the rear. Surprise surprise. Moviesta hampered about 94 times over 5f so could never get involved. Not the best of starts!

[nickf88]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Poppy Bond definitely one to follow this year I think when they're trying. Good form in the past, few runs into it to get it fit then it'll win a few races I'm sure. You're on the right track with it mate, chin up! :ok

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Laughable ride on Muffin McLeay. They're going to land a gamble on that one for sure. They came for him when winning at Ripon. 33s today with a claimer on and barely touched from the rear. Keep a close eye. Better than bare result there for sure, especially as they went no gallop. Slowly away, wide and never given a sniff by the jockey. Fingers crossed will be able to get on at a decent price when they take off the handbrake.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 7.00 Kempton - 1pt win Early One Morning @ 12/1 (VC) It's fair to say I weighed this up for quite a while as she's been quite weak in the market which is a turn-off but I do feel this race isn't very strong and the market leaders largely have something to prove at this trip. Hugo Palmer's runner has shaped fairly well at a modest level and looks like she can win races off a lowly mark of 57. She's quite nicely-bred and must have been quietly fancied on debut to be sent off at 6/1. She was noticeably green and seems to have progressed slowly with racing since. Her second effort saw her finish 5th here over 1m2f but that wasn't a bad race and certainly was an effort to suggest she could be better than a 57 horse. She was held up last time out over the same c&d and travelled well if a little keen and stayed on nicely into 4th up the straight. The front three were a little too strong for her but they had some half-decent form coming into the contest and my selection will at least stay the trip today. The extra furlong will help if settling and the horse she finished one place in front of last time out won a handicap off 65 subsequently. On bare form a mark of 57 in a weak contest and conditions to suit looks fair and although I'd like to see some more market support I can't let her go unbacked at 12/1.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert They say drifters do win but can't say I've backed one in as long as I can remember that's been very weak. Time to sack them off I think.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 2.30 Wincanton - 2pts win Billy No Name @ 6/1 (VC) I'm keen on the Tizzard runner in here who should handle conditions fine and looks like he'll be winning races off a mark of 115. Showed some promising form in bumpers and novice hurdles prior to running a good race on his handicap debut for all he bumped into a well-treated rival. He fell at the last but would have finished 2nd and the eventual 2nd has subsequently gone well off higher marks. The winner like I say was thrown in in hindsight and my selection gets to run off the same mark today. He was held up (uncharacteristically) at Ascot in a classy race (sent off at 25/1) but didn't jump great and couldn't get involved. Can be forgiven that and bounced right back when only beaten a length last time out by a useful sort of Paul Nicholls' in a novice race. Comes back handicapping off a decent mark and this trip looks just about his optimum. Shouldn't be too concerned with the rain that's fallen and ought to go very well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 3.00 Wincanton - 2pts win Henry Hook @ 11/2 (VC) Victor Dartnell has suffered from a horrible season with infection in the yard but his horses seem to be coming out of the doldrums now and I anticipate a big run from his charge in this race. He disappointed a little bit last time out but the ground had some give in it and that's not really ideal for him. He's a better horse on a sounder surface which he gets today and the track is another plus point. That race was a pretty strong affair as well whereas I believe this to be considerably easier as I think his main rivals are below him in the weights. That makes the grade lower than last time out and he'd shown a useful bit of form before that when 2nd after a break. Conditions are ideal today and he's been dropped 2lbs by the handicapper. Ought to go well.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.00 Wincanton - 1pt win Turn Over Sivola @ 6/1 (Bet365) Can't really believe I'm backing this one again but this is last chance saloon for the strong travelling type from Alan King's yard. He has no real excuses this time to not get home as he's got his ground and probably a more suitable track. He often looms up going menacingly before finding nil but is likely to be seen to better effect on a sound surface and hasn't had that lately. Ran in a better race than this at Newbury last time and the ease in the ground and the fairly testing track wouldn't have been totally ideal. He's come down the weights a little bit more and Wayne Hutchinson takes the ride which is another sizeable plus for me. Yard are going okay and should be competitive.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert 4.50 Fontwell - 3pts win Farbreaga @ 9/2 (VC) Although I've missed the price a little bit on this runner I think his chance is extremely obvious and will take some beating with conditions to suit. He's a c&d winner prior to registering good successes subsequently at Lingfield and Kempton (form franked) and although he disappointed at Sandown last time out he did have excuses. He was never really going on that occasion but it perhaps came a little too soon after his Kempton win and has been freshened up since. He goes well fresh so that's no issue and he did stay on past beaten horses last time out. The rain has played to his strengths as he likes a solid test at this trip and this represents a substantial drop in class from a 0-120 - despite this being a 0-115 only one horse other than him is rated over 107. Looks to have a huge chance.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert FFS man. What price in running.

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert The answer to that question is 1/5. Not much worse feeling then getting beaten on those :(

[Bathtime For Rupert]

Re: Dual Racing For Rupert Henry Hook's three jumps wins: 2 made all, 1 chased leaders. Today? Held up. Sometimes you just don't understand things but oh well, he's an erratic jumper and probably made no difference but where's the logic :\